Reverse-translational biomarker validation of Abnormal Repetitive Behaviors in mice: an illustration of the 4P's modeling approach

The NIMH's new strategic plan, with its emphasis on the "4P's" (Prediction, Pre-emption, Personalization, and Populations) and biomarker-based medicine requires a radical shift in animal modeling methodology. In particular 4P's models will be non-determinant (i.e. disease severity will depend on secondary environmental and genetic factors); and validated by reverse-translation of animal homologues to human biomarkers. A powerful consequence of the biomarker approach is that different closely related disorders have a unique fingerprint of biomarkers. Animals can be validated as a highly specific model of a single disorder by matching this 'fingerprint'; or as a model of a symptom seen in multiple disorders by matching common biomarkers. Here we illustrate this approach with two Abnormal Repetitive Behaviors (ARBs) in mice: stereotypies and barbering (hair pulling). We developed animal versions of the neuropsychological biomarkers that distinguish human ARBs, and tested the fingerprint of the different mouse ARBs. As predicted, the two mouse ARBs were associated with different biomarkers. Both barbering and stereotypy could be discounted as models of OCD (even though they are widely used as such), due to the absence of limbic biomarkers which are characteristic of OCD and hence are necessary for a valid model. Conversely barbering matched the fingerprint of trichotillomania (i.e. selective deficits in set-shifting), suggesting it may be a highly specific model of this disorder. In contrast stereotypies were correlated only with a biomarker (deficits in response shifting) correlated with stereotypies in multiple disorders, suggesting that animal stereotypies model stereotypies in multiple disorders.

A simple presurgical necrotizing enterocolitis-mortality scoring system

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship between early laboratory parameters, disease severity, type of management (surgical or conservative) and outcome in necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective collection and analysis of data from infants treated in a single tertiary care center (1980 to 2002). Data were collected on disease severity (Bell stage), birth weight (BW), gestational age (GA) and pre-intervention laboratory parameters (leukocyte and platelet counts, hemoglobin, lactate, C-reactive protein). RESULTS: Data from 128 infants were sufficient for analysis. Factors significantly associated with survival were Bell stage (P<0.05), lactate (P<0.05), BW and GA (P<0.01, P<0.001, respectively). From receiver operating characteristics curves, the highest predictive value resulted from a score with 0 to 8 points combining BW, Bell stage, lactate and platelet count (P<0.001). At a cutoff level of 4.5 sensitivity and specificity for predicting survival were 0.71 and 0.72, respectively. CONCLUSION: Some single parameters were associated with poor outcome in NEC. Optimal risk stratification was achieved by combining several parameters in a score.

International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis score for overt disseminated intravascular coagulation predicts organ dysfunction and fatality in sepsis patients

We evaluated the score for disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) recently published by the International Society for Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) in a well-defined series of sepsis patients. Thirty-two patients suffering from severe sepsis and eight patients with septic shock were evaluated following the ISTH DIC score. Fibrin monomer and D-dimer were chosen as fibrin-related markers (FRM), respectively. DIC scores for nonsurvivors (n = 13) as well as for septic shock patients were higher (P < 0.04) compared with survivors and patients with severe sepsis, respectively. Using fibrin monomer and D-dimer, 30 and 25% of patients suffered from overt DIC. Overt DIC was associated with significantly elevated thrombin-antithrombin complexes and plasminogen activator inhibitor type-1 levels as well as with significantly lower factor VII clotting activity. Patients with overt DIC had a significantly higher risk of death and of developing septic shock. Since more than 95% of the sepsis patients had elevated FRM, the DIC score was strongly dependent on prolongation of the prothrombin time and platelet counts. The ISTH DIC score is useful to identify patients with coagulation activation, predicting fatality and disease severity. It mainly depends on the prolongation of the prothrombin time and platelet counts.

ADAMTS-13, von Willebrand factor and related parameters in severe sepsis and septic shock

BACKGROUND: Insufficient control of von Willebrand factor (VWF) multimer size as a result of severely deficient ADAMTS-13 activity results in thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura associated with microvascluar thrombosis and platelet consumption, features not seldom seen in severe sepsis and septic shock. METHODS: ADAMTS-13 activity and VWF parameters of 40 patients with severe sepsis or septic shock were compared with those of 40 healthy controls of the same age and gender and correlated with clinical findings and sepsis outcome. RESULTS: ADAMTS-13 activity was significantly lower in patients than in healthy controls [median 60% (range 27-160%) vs. 110% (range 63-200%); P < 0.001]. VWF parameters behaved reciprocally and both VWF ristocetin cofactor activity (RCo) and VWF antigen (VWF:Ag) were significantly (P < 0.001) higher in patients compared with controls. Neither ADAMTS-13 activity nor VWF parameters correlated with disease severity, organ dysfunction or outcome. However, a contribution of acute endothelial dysfunction to renal impairment in sepsis is suggested by the significantly higher VWF propeptide and soluble thrombomodulin levels in patients with increased creatinine values as well as by their strong positive correlations (creatinine and VWF propeptide r(s) = 0.484, P < 0.001; creatinine and soluble thrombomodulin r(s) = 0.596, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: VWF parameters are reciprocally correlated with ADAMTS-13 activity in severe sepsis and septic shock but have no prognostic value regarding outcome.

Factor XIII in severe sepsis and septic shock

OBJECTIVE: In sepsis, activation of coagulation and inhibition of fibrinolysis lead to microvascular thrombosis. Thus, clot stability might be a critical issue in the development of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Activated FXIII (FXIIIa) forms stable fibrin clots by covalently cross-linking fibrin monomers. Therefore, we investigated the impact of FXIII antigen and activity levels on disease severity and fatality in sepsis patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: FXIII subunit A (FXIIIA) and FXIII cross-linking activity (FXIIICA) were measured in 151 controls, in 32 patients with severe sepsis and 8 with septic shock. In addition, FXIII subunit B (FXIIIB) was measured in the sepsis patients. Moreover, clotting parameters were determined. RESULTS: Patients suffering from sepsis (n=40) had significantly (p<0.005) lower FXIIIA levels (median [range]: 36.5% [8.8-127.4%]) and FXIIICA levels (76.5% [9.4-266%]) as compared to healthy controls (n=151, 119% [31.3-283.2] and 122.4% [40.6-485.3], respectively). No difference in FXIIIA, FXIIIB and FXIIICA levels between survivors and non-survivors, nor between patients with severe sepsis and septic shock was found. The specific activity of FXIII (FXIIICA/FXIIIA, SA(FXIII)) was significantly (p<0.001) higher in sepsis patients (2.0 [0.8-5.3]) as compared to healthy controls (1.0 [0.4-5.1]). SA(FXIII) significantly (p<0.05) increased with fatality (non-survivors [n=13] vs. survivors [n=27]: 3.3 [1.2-5.0] vs. 1.9 [0.8-5.3]) and disease severity (septic shock vs. severe sepsis: 3.4 [1.8-4.3] vs. 1.9 [0.8-5.3]). CONCLUSION: We show decreased FXIIICA and FXIIIA levels, but higher SA(FXIII) in sepsis as compared to controls. Increased SA(FXIII) correlates with disease severity and fatality in sepsis patients.

Adjuvant TACE inhibitor treatment improves the outcome of TLR2-/- mice with experimental pneumococcal meningitis

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus (S.) pneumoniae meningitis has a high lethality despite antibiotic treatment. Inflammation is a major pathogenetic factor, which is unresponsive to antibiotics. Therefore adjunctive therapies with antiinflammatory compounds have been developed. TNF484 is a TNF-alpha converting enzyme (TACE) inhibitor and has been found efficacious in experimental meningitis. Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) contributes to host response in pneumococcal meningitis by enhancing bacterial clearing and downmodulating inflammation. In this study, TNF484 was applied in mice, which lacked TLR2 and exhibited a strong meningeal inflammation. METHODS: 103 CFU S. pneumoniae serotype 3 was inoculated subarachnoidally into C57BL/6 wild type (wt) mice or TLR2-/-, CD14-/- and CD14-/-/TLR2-/- mice. Severity of disease and survival was followed over 9 days. Response to antibiotics (80 mg/kg ceftriaxone i.p. for 5 days) and/or TACE inhibitor treatment (1 mg/kg s.c. twice daily for 4 days) was evaluated. Animals were sacrificed after 12, 24, and 48 h for analysis of bacterial load in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and brain and for TNF and leukocyte measurements in CSF. RESULTS: TLR2-/- mice were significantly sicker than the other mouse strains 24 h after infection. All knockout mice showed higher disease severity after 48 h and died earlier than wt mice. TNF release into CSF was significantly more elevated in TLR2-/- than in the other strains after 24 h. Brain bacterial numbers were significantly higher in all knockout than wt mice after 24 h. Modulation of outcome by antibiotic and TACE inhibitor treatment was evaluated. With antibiotic therapy all wt, CD14-/- and TLR2-/-/CD14-/- mice, but only 79% of TLR2-/- mice, were rescued. TACE inhibitor treatment alone did not rescue, but prolonged survival in wt mice, and in TLR2-/- and CD14-/- mice to the values observed in untreated wt mice. By combined antibiotic and TACE inhibitor treatment 95% of TLR2-/- mice were rescued. CONCLUSION: During pneumococcal meningitis strong inflammation in TLR2-deficiency was associated with incomplete responsiveness to antibiotics and complete response to combined antibiotic and TACE inhibitor treatment. TACE inhibitor treatment offers a promising adjuvant therapeutic strategy in pneumococcal meningitis.

Experimental pneumococcal meningitis causes central nervous system pathology without inducing the 72-kd heat shock protein

We examined whether experimental pneumococcal meningitis induced the 72-kd heat shock protein (HSP72), a sensitive marker of neuronal stress in other models of central nervous system (CNS) injury. Brain injury was characterized by vasculitis, cerebritis, and abscess formation in the cortex of infected animals. The extent of these changes correlated with the size of the inoculum (P less than 0.003) and with pathophysiologic parameters of disease severity, i.e., cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lactate (r = 0.61, P less than 0.0001) and CSF glucose concentrations (r = -0.55, P less than 0.0001). Despite the presence of numerous cortical regions having morphologic evidence of injury, HSP72 was not detected in most animals. When present, only rare neurons were HSP72 positive. Western blot analysis of brain samples confirmed the paucity of HSP72 induction. The lack of neuronal HSP72 expression in this model suggests that at least some of the events leading to neuronal injury in meningitis are unique, when compared with CNS diseases associated with HSP72 induction.

Differences of pathophysiology in experimental meningitis caused by three strains of Streptococcus pneumoniae

Differences in cytochemical and pathophysiologic abnormalities in experimental meningitis caused by pneumococcal strains A, B, and C were determined. Strain C produced the most severe abnormalities of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) concentrations of lactate (P less than .01), protein (P less than .02), and glucose (P less than .01), CSF white blood cell count (P less than .04), cerebral blood flow (P less than .02), and clinical signs (P less than .05). Brain edema occurred only with strains A anc C, with no association with disease severity; intracranial hypertension was also independent of disease severity. Strain B, not C, achieved the highest bacterial titers in the CSF (P less than .005). The widely different abilities of strains of Streptococcus pneumoniae to induce intracranial abnormalities suggest that virulence determinants affect not only evasion of defense during colonization and invasion, as shown in other models, but also determine the course of disease once infection has been established. Differences of cell-wall metabolism among pneumococcal strains may play a role in this latter phase of the development of meningitis.

Lung volume, breathing pattern and ventilation inhomogeneity in preterm and term infants

BACKGROUND: Morphological changes in preterm infants with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) have functional consequences on lung volume, ventilation inhomogeneity and respiratory mechanics. Although some studies have shown lower lung volumes and increased ventilation inhomogeneity in BPD infants, conflicting results exist possibly due to differences in sedation and measurement techniques. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We studied 127 infants with BPD, 58 preterm infants without BPD and 239 healthy term-born infants, at a matched post-conceptional age of 44 weeks during quiet natural sleep according to ATS/ERS standards. Lung function parameters measured were functional residual capacity (FRC) and ventilation inhomogeneity by multiple breath washout as well as tidal breathing parameters. Preterm infants with BPD had only marginally lower FRC (21.4 mL/kg) than preterm infants without BPD (23.4 mL/kg) and term-born infants (22.6 mL/kg), though there was no trend with disease severity. They also showed higher respiratory rates and lower ratios of time to peak expiratory flow and expiratory time (t(PTEF)/t(E)) than healthy preterm and term controls. These changes were related to disease severity. No differences were found for ventilation inhomogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that preterm infants with BPD have a high capacity to maintain functional lung volume during natural sleep. The alterations in breathing pattern with disease severity may reflect presence of adaptive mechanisms to cope with the disease process.

Gender differences in cardiac rehabilitation outcomes: do women benefit equally in psychological health?

BACKGROUND: Psychological factors are important in the etiology and prognosis of coronary heart disease (CHD). Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) aims to reduce psychological distress, besides other somatic risk factors. Studies have shown that CR is effective in reducing psychological distress, but little is known about gender-specific outcome differences. Our objective was to examine whether women and men benefit equally from outpatient CR in terms of reduction in psychological distress and whether women show more impaired psychological health at baseline of CR than do men. METHODS: We enrolled 441 CHD patients (mean age 58+/-11 years, 79.8% men) who underwent a 12-week outpatient CR program. Psychological dimensions, namely, anxiety, depression, vital exhaustion, social inhibition, and negative affect, were assessed at baseline and post-CR. Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), controlling for age, disease severity, and exercise capacity, was applied to test for gender-specific differences at baseline and change between baseline and post-CR. In addition, gender-specific effect sizes were calculated for the change on psychological dimensions. RESULTS: Women and men did not differ on any psychological measure at baseline of CR. The effect sizes show small to moderate treatment effects on the psychological dimensions assessed. Gender had a significant impact on change on the dimensions vital exhaustion (F=5.040(df=1), p<0.05) and social inhibition (F=5.74(df=1), p<0.05). Women showed larger change on social inhibition and smaller change on vital exhaustion than men. CONCLUSIONS: Women and men do not differ in the extent of psychological distress at baseline of CR, which could be explained also by the exclusion of highly distressed women from treatment. CR is less effective among women with regard to vital exhaustion and more effective with regard to social inhibition compared with men in a sample of low distressed patients.

Outcomes of the South African National Antiretroviral Treatment Programme for children: the IeDEA Southern Africa collaboration

OBJECTIVES: To assess paediatric antiretroviral treatment (ART) outcomes and their associations from a collaborative cohort representing 20% of the South African national treatment programme. DESIGN AND SETTING: Multi-cohort study of 7 public sector paediatric ART programmes in Gauteng, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces. SUBJECTS: ART-naive children (< or = 16 years) who commenced treatment with > or = 3 antiretroviral drugs before March 2008. OUTCOME MEASURES: Time to death or loss to follow-up were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Associations between baseline characteristics and mortality were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models stratified by site. Immune status, virological suppression and growth were described in relation to duration of ART. RESULTS: The median (interquartile range) age of 6 078 children with 9 368 child-years of follow-up was 43 (15 - 83) months, with 29% being < 18 months. Most were severely ill at ART initiation. More than 75% of children were appropriately monitored at 6-monthly intervals with viral load suppression (< 400 copies/ml) being 80% or above throughout 36 months of treatment. Mortality and retention in care at 3 years were 7.7% (95% confidence interval 7.0 - 8.6%) and 81.4% (80.1 - 82.6%), respectively. Together with young age, all markers of disease severity (low weight-for-age z-score, high viral load, severe immune suppression, stage 3/4 disease and anaemia) were independently associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Dramatic clinical benefit for children accessing the national ART programme is demonstrated. Higher mortality in infants and those with advanced disease highlights the need for early diagnosis of HIV infection and commencement of ART.

Risk of severe asthma episodes predicted from fluctuation analysis of airway function

Asthma is an increasing health problem worldwide, but the long-term temporal pattern of clinical symptoms is not understood and predicting asthma episodes is not generally possible. We analyse the time series of peak expiratory flows, a standard measurement of airway function that has been assessed twice daily in a large asthmatic population during a long-term crossover clinical trial. Here we introduce an approach to predict the risk of worsening airflow obstruction by calculating the conditional probability that, given the current airway condition, a severe obstruction will occur within 30 days. We find that, compared with a placebo, a regular long-acting bronchodilator (salmeterol) that is widely used to improve asthma control decreases the risk of airway obstruction. Unexpectedly, however, a regular short-acting beta2-agonist bronchodilator (albuterol) increases this risk. Furthermore, we find that the time series of peak expiratory flows show long-range correlations that change significantly with disease severity, approaching a random process with increased variability in the most severe cases. Using a nonlinear stochastic model, we show that both the increased variability and the loss of correlations augment the risk of unstable airway function. The characterization of fluctuations in airway function provides a quantitative basis for objective risk prediction of asthma episodes and for evaluating the effectiveness of therapy.

Arterial blood pressure during early sepsis and outcome

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between arterial blood pressure (ABP) during the first 24 h and mortality in sepsis. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Multidisciplinary intensive care unit (ICU). PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 274 septic patients. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Hemodynamic, and laboratory parameters were extracted from a PDMS database. The hourly time integral of ABP drops below clinically relevant systolic arterial pressure (SAP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and mean perfusion pressure (MPP = MAP - central venous pressure) levels was calculated for the first 24 h after ICU admission and compared with 28-day-mortality. Binary and linear regression models (adjusted for SAPS II as a measure of disease severity), and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were applied. The areas under the ROC curve were largest for the hourly time integrals of ABP drops below MAP 60 mmHg (0.779 vs. 0.764 for ABP drops below MAP 55 mmHg; P < or = 0.01) and MPP 45 mmHg. No association between the hourly time integrals of ABP drops below certain SAP levels and mortality was detected. One or more episodes of MAP < 60 mmHg increased the risk of death by 2.96 (CI 95%, 1.06-10.36, P = 0.04). The area under the ROC curve to predict the need for renal replacement therapy was highest for the hourly time integral of ABP drops below MAP 75 mmHg. CONCLUSIONS: A MAP level > or = 60 mmHg may be as safe as higher MAP levels during the first 24 h of ICU therapy in septic patients. A higher MAP may be required to maintain kidney function.

Prognosis of Children with HIV-1 Infection Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Southern Africa: A Collaborative Analysis of Treatment Programs

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models for children starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa are lacking. We developed models to estimate the probability of death during the first year receiving ART in Southern Africa. METHODS: We analyzed data from children ≤10 years old who started ART in Malawi, South Africa, Zambia or Zimbabwe from 2004-2010. Children lost to follow-up or transferred were excluded. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality in the first year of ART. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4%, age, WHO clinical stage, weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) and anemia and one without CD4%, because it is not routinely measured in many programs. We used multiple imputation to account for missing data. RESULTS: Among 12655 children, 877 (6.9%) died in the first year of ART. 1780 children were lost to follow-up/transferred and excluded from main analyses; 10875 children were included. With the CD4% model probability of death at 1 year ranged from 1.8% (95% CI: 1.5-2.3) in children 5-10 years with CD4% ≥10%, WHO stage I/II, WAZ ≥-2 and without severe anemia to 46.3% (95% CI: 38.2-55.2) in children <1 year with CD4% <5%, stage III/IV, WAZ< -3 and severe anemia. The corresponding range for the model without CD4% was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.8-2.7) to 33.4% (95% CI: 28.2-39.3). Agreement between predicted and observed mortality was good (C-statistics=0.753 and 0.745 for models with and without CD4% respectively). CONCLUSION: These models may be useful to counsel children/caregivers, for program planning and to assess program outcomes after allowing for differences in patient disease severity characteristics.

Temporal trends in the characteristics of children at antiretroviral therapy initiation in southern Africa: the IeDEA-SA Collaboration

BACKGROUND Since 2005, increasing numbers of children have started antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa and, in recent years, WHO and country treatment guidelines have recommended ART initiation for all infants and very young children, and at higher CD4 thresholds for older children. We examined temporal changes in patient and regimen characteristics at ART start using data from 12 cohorts in 4 countries participating in the IeDEA-SA collaboration. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Data from 30,300 ART-naïve children aged <16 years at ART initiation who started therapy between 2005 and 2010 were analysed. We examined changes in median values for continuous variables using the Cuzick's test for trend over time. We also examined changes in the proportions of patients with particular disease severity characteristics (expressed as a binary variable e.g. WHO Stage III/IV vs I/II) using logistic regression. Between 2005 and 2010 the number of children starting ART each year increased and median age declined from 63 months (2006) to 56 months (2010). Both the proportion of children <1 year and ≥10 years of age increased from 12 to 19% and 18 to 22% respectively. Children had less severe disease at ART initiation in later years with significant declines in the percentage with severe immunosuppression (81 to 63%), WHO Stage III/IV disease (75 to 62%), severe anemia (12 to 7%) and weight-for-age z-score<-3 (31 to 28%). Similar results were seen when restricting to infants with significant declines in the proportion with severe immunodeficiency (98 to 82%) and Stage III/IV disease (81 to 63%). First-line regimen use followed country guidelines. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Between 2005 and 2010 increasing numbers of children have initiated ART with a decline in disease severity at start of therapy. However, even in 2010, a substantial number of infants and children started ART with advanced disease. These results highlight the importance of efforts to improve access to HIV diagnostic testing and ART in children.