City dweller aspirations for cities of the future: How do environmental and personal wellbeing feature?

This paper explores city dweller aspirations for cities of the future in the context of global commitments to radically reduce carbon emissions by 2050; cities contribute the vast majority of these emissions and a growing bulk of theworld's population lives in cities. The particular challenge of creating a carbon reduced future in democratic countries is that the measures proposed must be acceptable to the electorate. Such acceptability is fostered if carbon reduced ways of living are also felt to bewellbeing maximising. Thus the objective of the paper is to explore what kinds of cities people aspire to live in, to ascertain whether these aspirations align with or undermine carbon reduced ways of living, as well as personal wellbeing. Using a novel free associative technique, city aspirations are found to cluster around seven themes, encompassing physical and social aspects. Physically, people aspire to a city with a range of services and facilities, green and blue spaces, efficient transport, beauty and good design. Socially, people aspire to a sense of community and a safe environment. An exploration of these themes reveals that only a minority of the participants' aspirations for cities relate to lowering carbon or environmental wellbeing. Far more consensual is emphasis on, and a particular vision of, aspirations that will bring personal wellbeing. Furthermore, city dweller aspirations align with evidence concerning factors that maximise personal wellbeing but, far less, with those that produce lowcarbonways of living. In order to shape a lower carbon future that city dwellers accept the potential convergence between environmental and personal wellbeing will need to be capitalised on: primarily aversion to pollution and enjoyment of communal green space.

Risk Preferences and the Role of Emotions

There is a large volume of research showing that emotions have relevant effects on decision-making. We contribute to this literature by experimentally investigating the impact of four specific emotional states - joviality, sadness, fear, and anger - on risk attitudes. In order to do so, we fit two models of behavior under risk: the Expected Utility model (EU) and the Rank Dependent Expected Utility model (RDEU), assuming several functional forms of the weighting function. Our results indicate that all emotional states mitigate risk aversion. Furthermore, we show that there are some differences across gender and participants' experience in laboratory experiments.

Cracking the USA? Interpreting UK-to-US TV Drama Translations

For well over half a century, British TV drama production has both inherited from and aimed to appeal to nations and cultures beyond the UK, particularly the lucrative (yet notoriously tough) US TV market. However, in the context of mainstream American broadcasting, British-produced imports have never been anything more than a peripheral presence on US small screens. A currently prominent production strategy aiming to counter the mainstream US TV market's aversion to foreign-sourced drama, in an attempt to access prime-time broadcasting positions, is a process which can be labelled as UK-to-US TV drama ‘translation’: the ‘recreation’ of British-based dramas within an American cultural framework. Whilst the cultural reconfiguration of game show and reality/lifestyle TV formats has received heightened critical attention in recent years, investigation into the international translation of TV drama remains less developed. This paper investigates both the internal textual operations and the external production dynamics involved in the process of UK-to-US TV drama translation, drawing on direct interview material from industry professionals. The UK and US versions of the crime drama Cracker constitute the core translation case study, utilising the close analysis of text and production context as a lens through which to examine the mechanics of UK-to-US TV drama translation.

In tyrannos! Political Theology and “messianic difference” in Franz Rosenzweig’s New Thinking

This paper deals with an elucidation of the theologico-political implications of Franz Rosenzweig’s relational conception of time in his work The Star of Redemption, the peculiarity of which expresses the concept “messianic difference”. Considered from the standpoint of the secularization debate, this messianic temporality offers a response to the verification of the Hegelian assembly of political philosophy and philosophy of history which, according to Rosenzweig, First World War represented. The consequent political disappointment experienced by the author of Hegel und der Staat led him to the pursuit of a Neues Denken determined by the ontological primacy of time as well as the unbreakable relationship which Rosenzweig established between “temporality” and “otherness”. Taking as terminus a quo the anthropological distinction between “personality” and “self”, i. e. between “ethics” and “metaethics”, that Rosenzweig presents in The Star, I will finally attempt to explore the various modes of temporalization that, depending on the relation to the temporalization of God and the world, are possible for the Rosenzweigian Self, as well as their related theologico-political aftermaths.

Uncertainty and Speculators in an Auction for Emissions Permits

Auctions have become popular as means of allocating emissions permits in the emissions trading schemes developed around the world. Mostly, only a subset of the regulated polluters participate in these auctions along with speculators, creating a market with relatively few participants and, thus, incentive for strategic bidding. I characterize the bidding behavior of the polluters and the speculators, examining the effect of the latter on the profits of the former and on the auction outcome. It turns out that in addition to bidding for compliance, polluters also bid for speculation in the aftermarket. While the presence of the speculators forces the polluters to bid closer to their true valuations, it also creates a trade-off between increasing the revenue accrued to the regulator and reducing the profits of the auction-participating polluters. Nevertheless, the profits of the latter increase in the speculators' risk aversion.

Bond Fund Performance During Recessions and Expansions: Empirical Evidence from a Small Market

This paper provides the first investigation about bond mutual fund performance during recession and expansion periods separately. Based on multi-factor performance evaluation models, results show that bond funds significantly underperform the market during both phases of the business cycle. Nevertheless, unlike equity funds, bond funds exhibit considerably higher alphas during good economic states than during market downturns. These results, however, seem entirely driven by the global financial crisis subperiod. In contrast, during the recession associated to the Euro sovereign debt crisis, bond funds are able to accomplish neutral performance. This improved performance throughout the debt crisis seems to be related to more conservative investment strategies, which reflect an increase in managers’ risk aversion.

Risque de prix et décisions de production et d'exportation : le cas de l'agriculture au Québec

Cette thèse porte sur l’effet du risque de prix sur la décision des agriculteurs et les transformateurs québécois. Elle se divise en trois chapitres. Le premier chapitre revient sur la littérature. Le deuxième chapitre examine l’effet du risque de prix sur la production de trois produits, à savoir le maïs grain, la viande de porc et la viande d’agneau dans la province Québec. Le dernier chapitre est centré sur l’analyse de changement des préférences du transformateur québécois de porc pour ce qui est du choix de marché. Le premier chapitre vise à montrer l’importance de l’effet du risque du prix sur la quantité produite par les agriculteurs, tel que mis en évidence par la littérature. En effet, la littérature révèle l’importance du risque de prix à l’exportation sur le commerce international. Le deuxième chapitre est consacré à l’étude des facteurs du risque (les anticipations des prix et la volatilité des prix) dans la fonction de l’offre. Un modèle d’hétéroscédasticité conditionnelle autorégressive généralisée (GARCH) est utilisé afin de modéliser ces facteurs du risque. Les paramètres du modèle sont estimés par la méthode de l’Information Complète Maximum Vraisemblance (FIML). Les résultats empiriques montrent l’effet négatif de la volatilité du prix sur la production alors que la prévisibilité des prix a un effet positif sur la quantité produite. Comme attendu, nous constatons que l’application du programme d’assurance-stabilisation des revenus agricoles (ASRA) au Québec induit une plus importante sensibilité de l’offre par rapport au prix effectif (le prix incluant la compensation de l’ASRA) que par rapport au prix du marché. Par ailleurs, l’offre est moins sensible au prix des intrants qu’au prix de l’output. La diminution de l’aversion au risque de producteur est une autre conséquence de l’application de ce programme. En outre, l’estimation de la prime marginale relative au risque révèle que le producteur du maïs est le producteur le moins averse au risque (comparativement à celui de porc ou d’agneau). Le troisième chapitre consiste en l’analyse du changement de préférence du transformateur québécois du porc pour ce qui est du choix de marché. Nous supposons que le transformateur a la possibilité de fournir les produits sur deux marchés : étranger et local. Le modèle théorique explique l’offre relative comme étant une fonction à la fois d’anticipation relative et de volatilité relative des prix. Ainsi, ce modèle révèle que la sensibilité de l’offre relative par rapport à la volatilité relative de prix dépend de deux facteurs : d’une part, la part de l’exportation dans la production totale et d’autre part, l’élasticité de substitution entre les deux marchés. Un modèle à correction d’erreurs est utilisé lors d’estimation des paramètres du modèle. Les résultats montrent l’effet positif et significatif de l’anticipation relative du prix sur l’offre relative à court terme. Ces résultats montrent donc qu’une hausse de la volatilité du prix sur le marché étranger par rapport à celle sur le marché local entraine une baisse de l’offre relative sur le marché étranger à long terme. De plus, selon les résultats, les marchés étranger et local sont plus substituables à long terme qu’à court terme.

The role of muscarinic cholinergic signaling in cost-benefit decision making

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

The Elastic Octopus: A Catalogue of Failures for Disrupting Design Eduction

Elastic Octopus was inspired by a perceived increased reluctance in student attitudes towards taking risks and failure in design innovation. In particular, recent trends in funding and risk-aversion in earlier phases of education where failures are discouraged has limited the potential for ground breaking innovative thinking. This experimental design project was conceived to tackle the failure reluctance trend by developing a team based cross-disciplinary masters level design innovation studio module where students would succeed in relation to their capacity to demonstrate failure. Principally this involved creating a permission giving process where ambitious design experiments are developed in order to encourage the transgression of edges and boundaries. This was achieved by adapting a number of creative design methods including blue-sky thinking, back casting and design exorcisms to challenge and de-programme failure aversion. Succeeding through failure involved transitioning from meta-themes through to experimental contexts where failures could be attempted as a way of exploring the limits of technologies, structures, mental models, human engagement and other factors critical to success. We hope that insights gained from this disruptive educational module can offer unexpected benefits for students ranging from increased failure resilience, through to narrative generation and context forming skills while at the same time providing wider value in discussing how designers deal with failure.

Literacia financeira e comportamento na tomada de decisões financeiras

A literacia financeira é uma questão que tem vindo a ganhar relevância nos últimos anos e preocupado os governantes e instituições financeiras a nível mundial. De uma forma geral, o nível de conhecimento financeiro dos indivíduos no mundo é baixo, mesmo em países cujos mercados e economia são desenvolvidos. Existem diferenças a nível da literacia financeira não só entre países, como também dentro dos próprios países. Ao longo dos anos, várias pesquisas indicam que existem fatores socioeconómicos e demográficos que condicionam o nível de literacia financeira e podem explicar as diferenças existentes. A educação financeira tem sido a estratégia usada pelos governos para aumentar o nível de conhecimento financeiro dos indivíduos. Contudo, as opiniões dos autores dividem-se, quanto à sua real eficácia, sendo que alguns consideram que esta não é a melhor alternativa a seguir. A literacia financeira exerce influência sobre o comportamento dos indivíduos. Além disso, o comportamento dos indivíduos é condicionado por enviesamentos cognitivos e emocionais (excesso de confiança, aversão ao risco,etc.) que os afasta da racionalidade completa defendida pelas Finanças Tradicionais. Assim, surge uma nova área de estudo - as Finanças Comportamentais. Como é já vasta a literatura que emergiu à volta desta temática, esta dissertação apresenta uma revisão da literatura sobre a literacia financeira, abordando os aspectos comportamentais bem como a questão da educação financeira e dos programas que têm sido conduzidos para a promover.

Sense-making in theory and practice: a metatheoretical foundation and application for health information seeking

This thesis attempts to provide deeper historical and theoretical grounding for sense-making, thereby illustrating its applicability to practical information seeking research. In Chapter One I trace the philosophical origins of Brenda Dervin’s theory known as “sense making,” reaching beyond current scholarship that locates the origins of sense-making in twentieth-century Phenomenology and Communication theory and find its rich ontological, epistemological, and etymological heritage that dates back to the Pre-Socratics. After exploring sense-making’s Greek roots, I examine sense-making’s philosophical undercurrents found in Hegel’s Phenomenology of Spirit (1807), where he also returns to the simplicity of the Greeks for his concept of sense. With Chapter Two I explore sense-making methodology and find, in light of the Greek and Hegelian dialectic, a dialogical bridge connecting sense-making’s theory with pragmatic uses. This bridge between Dervin’s situation and use occupies a distinct position in sense-making theory. Moreover, building upon Brenda Dervin’s model of sense-making, I use her metaphors of gap and bridge analogy to discuss the dialectic and dialogic components of sense making. The purpose of Chapter Three is pragmatic – to gain insight into the online information-seeking needs, experiences, and motivation of first-degree relatives (FDRs) of breast cancer survivors through the lens of sense-making. This research analyses four questions: 1) information-seeking behavior among FDRs of cancer survivors compared to survivors and to undiagnosed, non-related online cancer information seekers in the general population, 2) types of and places where information is sought, 3) barriers or gaps and satisfaction rates FDRs face in their cancer information quest, and 4) types and degrees of cancer information and resources FDRs want and use in their information search for themselves and other family members. An online survey instrument designed to investigate these questions was developed and pilot tested. Via an email communication, the Susan Love Breast Cancer Research Foundation distributed 322,000 invitations to its membership to complete the survey, and from March 24th to April 5th 10,692 women agreed to take the survey with 8,804 volunteers actually completing survey responses. Of the 8,804 surveys, 95% of FDRs have searched for cancer information online, and 84% of FDRs use the Internet as a sense-making tool for additional information they have received from doctors or nurses. FDRs report needing much more information than either survivors or family/friends in ten out of fifteen categories related to breast and ovarian cancer. When searching for cancer information online, FDRs also rank highest in several of sense-making’s emotional levels: uncertainty, confusion, frustration, doubt, and disappointment than do either survivors or friends and family. The sense-making process has existed in theory and praxis since the early Greeks. In applying sense–making’s theory to a contemporary problem, the survey reveals unaddressed situations and gaps of FDRs’ information search process. FDRs are a highly motivated group of online information seekers whose needs are largely unaddressed as a result of gaps in available online information targeted to address their specific needs. Since FDRs represent a quarter of the population, further research addressing their specific online information needs and experiences is necessary.

Caim, Gaspard, Melchior, Balthazar e demais cúmplices : jornada às avessas rumo à inefável transcendência

Tendo como ponto de partida a leitura intertextual das obras Caim, de José Saramago, e Gaspard, Melchior et Balthazar, de Michel Tournier, encaradas à luz da Teoria da Carnavalização do filósofo russo Mikhail Bakhtin, procura-se estabelecer afinidades e antinomias passíveis de constarem na temática da revisitação subversiva de mitos bíblicos. Assim sendo, pretende-se concluir, nomeadamente, acerca da relevância do diálogo efetuado pelos autores em torno da verdade oficial e sua reinterpretação, ainda que insolente; da validade da viagem de iniciação, enquanto lenitivo, “via-sacra” e demanda de absoluta Plenitude, empreendida pelos heróis e pelos anti-heróis; do grotesco na representação carnavalesca do corpo e da vida terrena; da presença de um discurso narrativo fazendo uso de uma linguagem subversiva, onde grotesco, ironia e/ou paródia são percetíveis; dos valores morais e ética social a preservar versus crítica acérrima ao poder instituído; da queda do Homem e do confronto com Deus e suas imperdoáveis limitações “humanas”; da presença do binómio entidade divina/entidade mefistofélica e o modo como as várias vozes narrativas surgem articuladas. Concomitantemente, pretende-se comprovar que os textos de José Saramago e Michel Tournier, embora mergulhando no desmascaramento, “profanação” e aparente niilismo do Texto Bíblico, na dessacralização de um cosmos oficial e na adoção do riso e impertinência enquanto catarse, longe de provocarem a aniquilação do mito, antes concorrem para uma releitura profícua, pois repleta de pluralidade de significados, onde o Transcendente, por oposição à desilusão prodigalizada pela vida terrena, é objeto de revitalização; pretendendo autores, narradores e leitores, postos em diálogo polifónico, a não reiteração de modos perniciosos de “estar” e “ser”, mas um olhar lúcido e puro sobre o futuro da Humanidade.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed timevarying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible realtime term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Postharvest treatment effects on 'B74' mango fruit lenticel discolouration after irradiation

Lenticel discolouration (LD) is a common disorder of mango fruit around the world. It results in poor appearance and disappointment of consumers. LD is exacerbated by treatment of mango fruit with gamma irradiation for insect disinfestation. The issue is problematic on the relatively new mango cultivar 'B74' and may represent an oxidative browning process. With a view to reducing irradiationinduced LD on 'B74', postharvest wax (one and three layers; 75% carnauba wax) and antioxidant (100 mM ascorbic acid, 100 mM calcium chloride, 10, 50 and 100 mM calcium ascorbate) dip treatments were investigated. Treatment of green mature fruit with three layers of wax prior to exposure to 557 Gy gamma irradiation reduced LD by 40% relative to the non-waxed control. However, the fruit failed to ripen properly as evidenced by delayed skin colour change, retarded softening and increased skin browning as compared to the controls and fruit coated with one layer of wax. Treatment with one layer of wax did not reduce LD. Mechanistically, the responses suggest that air exchange plays a pivotal role in LD. A lowered oxygen concentration in the lenticels may reduce the disorder after irradiation treatment. Postharvest treatments with the various antioxidants failed to reduce LD. Rather, all antioxidant treatments at the test concentrations, except calcium chloride, significantly increased skin browning.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible real-time term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.