Demand forecasting process design and methods in medium sized enterprise

The purpose of this thesis was to study the design of demand forecasting processes and management of demand. In literature review were different processes found and forecasting methods and techniques interviewed. Also role of bullwhip effect in supply chain was identified and how to manage it with information sharing operations. In the empirical part of study is at first described current situation and challenges in case company. After that will new way to handle demand introduced with target budget creation and how information sharing with 5 products and a few customers would bring benefits to company. Also the new S&OP process created within this study and organization for it.

Testing FCM technique for the wind energy scenarios in Finland

In the latter days, human activities constantly increase greenhouse gases emissions in the atmosphere, which has a direct impact on a global climate warming. Finland as European Union member, developed national structural plan to promote renewable energy generation, pursuing the aspects of Directive 2009/28/EC and put it on the sharepoint. Finland is on a way of enhancing national security of energy supply, increasing diversity of the energy mix. There are plenty significant objectives to develop onshore and offshore wind energy generation in country for a next few decades, as well as another renewable energy sources. To predict the future changes, there are a lot of scenario methods developed and adapted to energy industry. The Master’s thesis explored “Fuzzy cognitive maps” approach in scenarios developing, which captures expert’s knowledge in a graphical manner and using these captures for a raw scenarios testing and refinement. There were prospects of Finnish wind energy development for the year of 2030 considered, with aid of FCM technique. Five positive raw scenarios were developed and three of them tested against integrated expert’s map of knowledge, using graphical simulation. The study provides robust scenarios out of the preliminary defined, as outcome, assuming the impact of results, taken after simulation. The thesis was conducted in such way, that there will be possibilities to use existing knowledge captures from expert panel, to test and deploy different sets of scenarios regarding to Finnish wind energy development.

Susteinable steelmaking by process integration

Environmental issues, including global warming, have been serious challenges realized worldwide, and they have become particularly important for the iron and steel manufacturers during the last decades. Many sites has been shut down in developed countries due to environmental regulation and pollution prevention while a large number of production plants have been established in developing countries which has changed the economy of this business. Sustainable development is a concept, which today affects economic growth, environmental protection, and social progress in setting up the basis for future ecosystem. A sustainable headway may attempt to preserve natural resources, recycle and reuse materials, prevent pollution, enhance yield and increase profitability. To achieve these objectives numerous alternatives should be examined in the sustainable process design. Conventional engineering work cannot address all of these substitutes effectively and efficiently to find an optimal route of processing. A systematic framework is needed as a tool to guide designers to make decisions based on overall concepts of the system, identifying the key bottlenecks and opportunities, which lead to an optimal design and operation of the systems. Since the 1980s, researchers have made big efforts to develop tools for what today is referred to as Process Integration. Advanced mathematics has been used in simulation models to evaluate various available alternatives considering physical, economic and environmental constraints. Improvements on feed material and operation, competitive energy market, environmental restrictions and the role of Nordic steelworks as energy supplier (electricity and district heat) make a great motivation behind integration among industries toward more sustainable operation, which could increase the overall energy efficiency and decrease environmental impacts. In this study, through different steps a model is developed for primary steelmaking, with the Finnish steel sector as a reference, to evaluate future operation concepts of a steelmaking site regarding sustainability. The research started by potential study on increasing energy efficiency and carbon dioxide reduction due to integration of steelworks with chemical plants for possible utilization of available off-gases in the system as chemical products. These off-gases from blast furnace, basic oxygen furnace and coke oven furnace are mainly contained of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, hydrogen, nitrogen and partially methane (in coke oven gas) and have proportionally low heating value but are currently used as fuel within these industries. Nonlinear optimization technique is used to assess integration with methanol plant under novel blast furnace technologies and (partially) substitution of coal with other reducing agents and fuels such as heavy oil, natural gas and biomass in the system. Technical aspect of integration and its effect on blast furnace operation regardless of capital expenditure of new operational units are studied to evaluate feasibility of the idea behind the research. Later on the concept of polygeneration system added and a superstructure generated with alternative routes for off-gases pretreatment and further utilization on a polygeneration system producing electricity, district heat and methanol. (Vacuum) pressure swing adsorption, membrane technology and chemical absorption for gas separation; partial oxidation, carbon dioxide and steam methane reforming for methane gasification; gas and liquid phase methanol synthesis are the main alternative process units considered in the superstructure. Due to high degree of integration in process synthesis, and optimization techniques, equation oriented modeling is chosen as an alternative and effective strategy to previous sequential modelling for process analysis to investigate suggested superstructure. A mixed integer nonlinear programming is developed to study behavior of the integrated system under different economic and environmental scenarios. Net present value and specific carbon dioxide emission is taken to compare economic and environmental aspects of integrated system respectively for different fuel systems, alternative blast furnace reductants, implementation of new blast furnace technologies, and carbon dioxide emission penalties. Sensitivity analysis, carbon distribution and the effect of external seasonal energy demand is investigated with different optimization techniques. This tool can provide useful information concerning techno-environmental and economic aspects for decision-making and estimate optimal operational condition of current and future primary steelmaking under alternative scenarios. The results of the work have demonstrated that it is possible in the future to develop steelmaking towards more sustainable operation.

Low levels of sex hormone-binding globulin and hyperproinsulinemia as markers of increased pancreatic ß-cell demand in men

Low levels of sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) are considered to be an indirect index of hyperinsulinemia, predicting the later onset of diabetes mellitus type 2. In the insulin resistance state and in the presence of an increased pancreatic ß-cell demand (e.g. obesity) both absolute and relative increases in proinsulin secretion occur. In the present study we investigated the correlation between SHBG and pancreatic ß-cell secretion in men with different body compositions. Eighteen young men (30.0 ± 2.4 years) with normal glucose tolerance and body mass indexes (BMI) ranging from 22.6 to 43.2 kg/m2 were submitted to an oral glucose tolerance test (75 g) and baseline and 120-min blood samples were used to determine insulin, proinsulin and C-peptide by specific immunoassays. Baseline SHBG values were significantly correlated with baseline insulin (r = -0.58, P<0.05), proinsulin (r = -0.47, P<0.05), C-peptide (r = -0.55, P<0.05) and also with proinsulin at 120 min after glucose load (r = -0.58, P<0.05). Stepwise regression analysis revealed that proinsulin values at 120 min were the strongest predictor of SHBG (r = -0.58, P<0.05). When subjects were divided into obese (BMI >28 kg/m2, N = 8) and nonobese (BMI £25 kg/m2, N = 10) groups, significantly lower levels of SHBG were found in the obese subjects. The obese group had significantly higher baseline proinsulin, C-peptide and 120-min proinsulin and insulin levels. For the first time using a specific assay for insulin determination, a strong inverse correlation between insulinemia and SHBG levels was confirmed. The finding of a strong negative correlation between SHBG levels and pancreatic ß-cell secretion, mainly for the 120-min post-glucose load proinsulin levels, reinforces the concept that low SHBG levels are a suitable marker of increased pancreatic ß-cell demand.

The demand-supply balancing process in supply chain management - case mining & metals industry equipment

The aim of this thesis is to search how to match the demand and supply effectively in industrial and project-oriented business environment. The demand-supply balancing process is searched through three different phases: the demand planning and forecasting, synchronization of demand and supply and measurement of the results. The thesis contains a single case study that has been implemented in a company called Outotec. In the case study the demand is planned and forecasted with qualitative (judgmental) forecasting method. The quantitative forecasting methods are searched further to support the demand forecast and long term planning. The sales and operations planning process is used in the synchronization of the demand and supply. The demand forecast is applied in the management of a supply chain of critical unit of elemental analyzer. Different meters on operational and strategic level are proposed for the measurement of performance.

Utilization of AMI-Technology in a Multilayered Demand Response Service Environment

This thesis studied the performance of Advanced metering infrastructure systems in a challenging Demand Response environment. The aim was to find out what kind of challenges and bottlenecks could be met when utilizing AMI-systems in challenging Demand Response tasks. To find out the challenges and bottlenecks, a multilayered demand response service concept was formed. The service consists of seven different market layers which consist of Nordic electricity market and the reserve markets of Fingrid. In the simulations the AMI-systems were benchmarked against these seven market layers. It was found out, that the current generation AMI-systems were capable of delivering Demand Response on the most challenging market layers, when observed from time critical viewpoint. Additionally, it was found out, that to enable wide scale Demand Response there are three major challenges to be acknowledged. The challenges hindering the utilization of wide scale Demand Response were related to poor standardization of the systems in use, possible problems in data connectivity solutions and the current electricity market regulation model.

Accuracy improvement of a demand forecasting model

This research concerns different statistical methods that assist to increase the demand forecasting accuracy of company X’s forecasting model. Current forecasting process was analyzed in details. As a result, graphical scheme of logical algorithm was developed. Based on the analysis of the algorithm and forecasting errors, all the potential directions for model future improvements in context of its accuracy were gathered into the complete list. Three improvement directions were chosen for further practical research, on their basis, three test models were created and verified. Novelty of this work lies in the methodological approach of the original analysis of the model, which identified its critical points, as well as the uniqueness of the developed test models. Results of the study formed the basis of the grant of the Government of St. Petersburg.

Lauhdevoimakapasiteetin ennenaikaisen poistumisen energiataloudelliset vaikutukset

Tässä diplomityössä on tutkittu lauhdekapasiteetin ennenaikaisen markkinoilta poistumisen energiataloudellisia vaikutuksia. Tarkastelu toteutettiin sähkömarkkinamallinnuksen avulla luomalla kaksi erilaista lauhdekapasiteettiskenaariota perustuen arvioituun lauhdekapasiteetin poistumiseen sekä vastavuoroisesti sen säilymiseen markkinoilla. Skenaarioiden vaikutuksia tutkittiin myös herkkyystarkasteluin ja tuloksia analysoitiin energiataloudellisesta näkökulmasta. Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää lauhdekapasiteetin ennenaikaisen poistumisen energiataloudellista kustannusta. Viime vuosien pitkittynyt talouden taantuma on hillinnyt kysynnän ennakoitua kehitystä johtaen alhaiseen sähkön markkinahintatasoon. Samalla tiukentuneet energiatuotannon ympäristövaatimukset asettavat investointirasitteita perinteisille voimalaitoksille heikentäen niiden taloudellisen kannattavuuden edellytyksiä. Markkinasähkön alhainen hintataso yhdessä investointirasitteiden kanssa asettaa haasteita etenkin usein rajatuotantomuotona toimiville lauhdelaitoksille. Alhaisen kannattavuuden seurauksena lauhdekapasiteettia arvioidaan poistuvan ennen teknisen käyttöiän täyttymistä markkinoilta merkittävästi lähivuosina. Kapasiteetin poistuminen kasvattaa oman tuotannon ja kysynnän välistä tehovajetta, minkä vuoksi sähköjärjestelmän nähdään tiukentuvan merkittävästi ennen rakenteilla olevan ydinvoimalaitoksen valmistumista. Työssä toteutettujen mallinnusten perusteella lauhdekapasiteetin väheneminen nostaa sähkön hintatasoa sekä lisää korkeiden hintapiikkien esiintymistä merkittävästi suhteessa korkeamman kapasiteetin tuloksiin. Sähköjärjestelmä on hyvin tiukka ennen rakenteilla olevan ydinvoimalaitoksen käyttöönottoa, minkä vuoksi lauhdekapasiteetin eroavaisuuksien vaikutukset ovat merkittävä etenkin poikkeuksellisen kylmänä vuotena. Lauhdekapasiteetin merkitys pienenee selvästi 2020-luvulla, kun oma tuotantokapasiteetti kasvaa. Työn tulosten perusteella lähivuosina alhaisemman lauhdekapasiteetin aiheuttama vuotuinen energiataloudellinen kustannus on huomattavasti korkeampi kuin laitosten kannattavan ylläpidon vaatima kustannus.

Ydinvoiman säädettävyys laajamittaisesti sähköä varastoivassa energiajärjestelmässä

Tulevaisuudessa tuuli- ja aurinkovoiman osuus sähköntuotannosta tulee kasvamaan. Näiden uusiutuvien energiamuotojen tuotanto kuitenkin vaihtelee sääolosuhteiden mukaan. Tästä johtuen tarvitaan lisää säätövoimaa, jotta voidaan vastata sähkönkulutukseen tuuli- ja aurinkosähkön tuotannon laskiessa. Tässä työssä tarkastellaan mahdollisuutta toteuttaa sähkönkulutuksen ja tuotannon tasapainottaminen Suomessa sähkön varastoinnin avulla sekä ydinvoiman soveltuvuutta säätövoimaksi ja ydinsähkön varastoinnin kannattavuutta. Työssä vertaillaan mahdollisuuksia sähkön varastointiteknologioiksi, joista valitaan potentiaalisimmat vaihtoehdot kustannus- ja soveltuvuustarkasteluun. Varastointikapasiteetin tarvetta tarkastellaan Suomen nykyisen sähkönkulutuksen ja -tuotannon mukaan sekä tilanteessa, jossa tuuli- ja aurinkovoiman osuus on molemmilla 15 % kokonaistuotantokapasiteetista. Vanhempien sekä nykyaikaisten ydinvoimaloiden soveltuvuutta säätövoimaksi tarkastellaan laitosten säädettävyyden perusteella. Ydinvoimalaa on kuitenkin kannattavinta käyttää mahdollisimman suurella käyttökertoimella, joten tarkastelussa on myös mahdollisuus varastoida sähköä tilanteissa, joissa tuotantoa jouduttaisiin rajoittamaan. Varastointiteknologioiden ja eri skenaarioissa vaadittujen varastointikapasiteettien perusteella voidaan todeta, ettei sähkönkulutuksen ja -tuotannon tasapainottaminen sähkön varastoinnilla ole kannattavaa nykyisillä varastointikustannuksilla ja sähkön hinnoilla. Ydinvoiman voidaan todeta soveltuvan hyvin säätövoimaksi ominaisuuksien puolesta, mutta taloudellisesti se ei ole paras vaihtoehto. Ydinvoimalla tuotetun sähkön varastointi ei ole tällä hetkellä Suomessa kannattavaa matalien sähkön hintojen ja korkeiden varastointikustannusten vuoksi. Sähkön varastoinnista on mahdollista tulla kannattavaa 2020-luvulla. Tämä edellyttää Yhdysvaltojen energiaministeriön asettaman strategian toteutumista, jonka tavoitteena on varastoimalla tuotetun sähkön kustannusten saaminen alle 75 €/MWh.

Defensive responses to threat scenarios in Brazilians reproduce the pattern of Hawaiian Americans and non-human mammals

A former study with scenarios conducted in Hawaii has suggested that humans share with non-human mammals the same basic defensive strategies - risk assessment, freezing, defensive threat, defensive attack, and flight. The selection of the most adaptive strategy is strongly influenced by features of the threat stimulus - magnitude, escapability, distance, ambiguity, and availability of a hiding place. Aiming at verifying if these strategies would be consistent in a different culture, 12 defensive scenarios were translated into Portuguese and adapted to the Brazilian culture. The sample consisted of male and female undergraduate students divided into two groups: 76 students, who evaluated the five dimensions of each scenario and 248 medical students, who chose the most likely response for each scenario. In agreement with the findings from studies of non-human mammal species, the scenarios were able to elicit different defensive behavioral responses, depending on features of the threat. "Flight" was chosen as the most likely response in scenarios evaluated as an unambiguous and intense threat, but with an available route of escape, whereas "attack" was chosen in an unambiguous, intense and close dangerous situation without an escape route. Less urgent behaviors, such as "check out", were chosen in scenarios evaluated as less intense, more distant and more ambiguous. Moreover, the results from the Brazilian sample were similar to the results obtained in the original study with Hawaiian students. These data suggest that a basic repertoire of defensive strategies is conserved along the mammalian evolution because they share similar functional benefits in maintaining fitness.

The response of social anxiety disorder patients to threat scenarios differs from that of healthy controls

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the response of social anxiety disorder (SAD) patients to threat scenarios. First-choice responses to 12 scenarios describing conspecific threatening situations and mean scores of defensive direction and defensive intensity dimensions were compared between 87 SAD patients free of medication and 87 matched healthy controls (HC). A significant gender difference in the first-choice responses was identified for seven scenarios among HCs but only for two scenarios among SAD patients. A significantly higher proportion of SAD patients chose "freezing" in response to "Bush" and "Noise" scenarios, whereas the most frequent response by HCs to these scenarios was "check out". SAD males chose "run away" and "yell" more often than healthy men in response to the scenarios "Park" and "Elevator", respectively. There was a positive correlation between the severity of symptoms and both defensive direction and defensive intensity dimensions. Factorial analysis confirmed the gradient of defensive reactions derived from animal studies. SAD patients chose more urgent defensive responses to threat scenarios, seeming to perceive them as more dangerous than HCs and tending to move away from the source of threat. This is consistent with the hypothesis that the physiopathology of anxiety disorders involves brain structures responsible for defensive behaviors.

Addressing conflicts of interest in the research paper: a societal demand in contemporary science?

In the last decade, dialogue between science and society has found a forum in an increasing number of publications on topics such as public engagement with science and public trust in science. Concerning the latter, issues that include cases of research misconduct, accountability in research, and conflicts of interest (COIs) have shaped global discussions on the communication of science. In the publication setting, the perception that hiding COIs and/or not managing them well may affect public trust in the research record has grown among editors. We conducted a search for editorials addressing COIs between 1989 and 2011, using four major databases: Medline/PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Knowledge. We explored the content of these editorials and the relationship they established between COIs and the public trust in science. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between disclosure of COIs and public trust in science has become a major concern among editors. We, thus, argue that COIs should be discussed more openly and frequently in graduate courses in the sciences, around the globe, not only in biomedical but also in non-biomedical areas. This is a critical issue in contemporary science, as graduate students are the future voices and decision-makers of the research community. Therefore, COIs, especially in the broader context of science and society, merit closer attention from policymakers, researchers, and educators. At times of great expectations for public engagement with science, mishandling of COIs may have undesirable consequences for public engagement with science and confidence in the scientific endeavor.

Households’ willingness to engage in demand response in the Finnish retail electricity market: an empirical study

If electricity users adjusted their consumption patterns according to time-variable electricity prices or other signals about the state of the power system, generation and network assets could be used more efficiently, and matching intermittent renewable power generation with electricity demand would be facilitated. This kind of adjustment of electricity consumption, or demand response, may be based on consumers’ decisions to shift or reduce electricity use in response to time-variable electricity prices or on the remote control of consumers’ electric appliances. However, while demand response is suggested as a solution to many issues in power systems, actual experiences from demand response programs with residential customers are mainly limited to short pilots with a small number of voluntary participants, and information about what kinds of changes consumers are willing and able to make and what motivates these changes is scarce. This doctoral dissertation contributes to the knowledge about what kinds of factors impact on residential consumers’ willingness and ability to take part in demand response. Saving opportunities calculated with actual price data from the Finnish retail electricity market are compared with the occurred supplier switching to generate a first estimate about how large savings could trigger action also in the case of demand response. Residential consumers’ motives to participate in demand response are also studied by a web-based survey with 2103 responses. Further, experiences of households with electricity consumption monitoring systems are discussed to increase knowledge about consumers’ interest in getting more information on their electricity use and adjusting their behavior based on it. Impacts of information on willingness to participate in demand response programs are also approached by a survey for experts of their willingness to engage in demand response activities. Residential customers seem ready to allow remote control of electric appliances that does not require changes in their everyday routines. Based on residents’ own activity, the electricity consuming activities that are considered shiftable are very limited. In both cases, the savings in electricity costs required to allow remote control or to engage in demand response activities are relatively high. Nonmonetary incentives appeal to fewer households.