Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013

Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders.

Conceptual Design of a Circulating Fluidized Bed Reactor as a Thermochemical Thermal Energy Storage System for Applications in Concentrated Solar Thermal Power Plants

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Hoshin Kanri – the Japanese way of piloting : An exploratory study of a Japanese strategic management system

Strategy is a highly topical subject among managers and since the world is constantlychanging it is also an important subject for companies’ competitive advantage and survival.At the same time experts in the field of strategic management describe western techniques ascomplex and ineffective while the Japanese techniques have been seen as unambiguous andcharacterized by focus on quality, productivity and teamwork. This calls for greaterknowledge in the Japanese management systems. Hoshin Kanri is a collection of Japanesebest strategic management practices and therefore an interesting target for our study. Thus, onthe one hand this study investigates the theory of Hoshin Kanri in order to give structure to itand provide a way for practitioner into the management system. On the other hand this studyinvestigates Hoshin Kanri in order to reveal how Japanese subsidiaries based in Sweden haveimplemented this strategic management system. This is firstly done by reviewing the existingliterature on the subject and secondly by a collective case study with in-depth interviewsconducted with managers at Japanese owned subsidiaries based in Sweden. There are somelimitations in this study. One is that the results of the study do not include all Japanesesubsidiaries in Sweden as not all companies participated in the study. Moreover, the study islimited by one individuals’ knowledge and perception of Hoshin Kanri in each of the threecompanies. The study contributes to the existing literature on the topic of Hoshin Kanri by;(1) structuring the literature and the existing models under one of two categories, namelycyclical or sequential; (2) providing a model that aims at making it more understandable andattractive for practitioner to apply; (3) initiating the mapping of the spread of Hoshin Kanriamong Japanese subsidiaries in Sweden and (4) providing a Swedish model for theapplication of HK in Japanese subsidiaries.

Environmental impacts of freshwater use and suspended solids in life cycle assessment

Perturbation of natural ecosystems, namely by increasing freshwater use and its degradative use, as well as topsoil erosion by water of land-use production systems, have been emerging as topics of high environmental concern. Freshwater use has become a focus of attention in the last few years for all stakeholders involved in the production of goods, mainly agro-industrial and forest-based products, which are freshwater-intensive consumers, requiring large inputs of green and blue water. This thesis presents a global review on the available Water Footprint Assessment and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)-based methods for measuring and assessing the environmental relevance of freshwater resources use, based on a life cycle perspective. Using some of the available midpoint LCA-based methods, the freshwater use-related impacts of a Portuguese wine (white ‘vinho verde’) were assessed. However, the relevance of environmental green water has been neglected because of the absence of a comprehensive impact assessment method associated with green water flows. To overcome this constraint, this thesis helps to improve and enhance the LCA-based methods by providing a midpoint and spatially explicit Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) method for assessing impacts on terrestrial green water flow and addressing reductions in surface blue water production caused by reductions in surface runoff due to land-use production systems. The applicability of the proposed method is illustrated by a case study on Eucalyptus globulus conducted in Portugal, as the growth of short rotation forestry is largely dependent on local precipitation. Topsoil erosion by water has been characterised as one of the most upsetting problems for rivers. Because of this, this thesis also focuses on the ecosystem impacts caused by suspended solids (SS) from topsoil erosion that reach freshwater systems. A framework to conduct a spatially distributed SS delivery to freshwater streams and a fate and effect LCIA method to derive site-specific characterisation factors (CFs) for endpoint damage on aquatic ecosystem diversity, namely on algae, macrophyte, and macroinvertebrates organisms, were developed. The applicability of this framework, combined with the derived site-specific CFs, is shown by conducting a case study on E. globulus stands located in Portugal as an example of a land use based system. A spatially explicit LCA assessment was shown to be necessary, since the impacts associated with both green water flows and SS vary greatly as a function of spatial location.

Changing use and hydromorphological adjustment in a coastal lagoon–estuarine system, the Ria de Aveiro, Portugal

Today the Ria de Aveiro of northern Portugal has a hydromorphological regime in which river influence is limited to periods of flood. For most of the annual cycle, tidal currents and wind waves are the major forcing agents in this complex coastal lagoon–estuarine system. The system has evolved over two centuries from one that was naturally fluvially dominant to one that is today tidally dominant. Human influence was a trigger for these changes, starting in 1808 when its natural evolution was halted by the construction of a new inlet/outlet channel through the mobile sand spit that isolates it from the Atlantic Ocean. In consequence, tidal ranges in the lagoon increased rapidly from ~0.1 m to >1 m and continued to increase, as a result of continued engineering works and dredging, today reaching ~3 m on spring tides. Hydromorphological adjustments that have taken place include the deepening of channels, an increase in the area of inter-tidal flats, regression of salt marsh, increased tidal propagation and increased saline intrusion. Loss of once abundant submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), due to increased tidal flows, exacerbated by increased recreational activities, has been accompanied by a change from fine cohesive sediments to coarser, mobile sediments with reduced biological activity.

Life cycle assessment of advanced bioethanol production from pulp and paper sludge

This work evaluates the environmental performance of using pulp and paper sludge as feedstock for the production of second generation ethanol. An ethanol plant for converting 5400 tons of dry sludge/year was modelled and evaluated using a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment approach. The sludge is a burden for pulp and paper mills that is mainly disposed in landfilling. The studied system allows for the valorisation of the waste, which due to its high polysaccharide content is a valuable feedstock for bioethanol production. Eleven impact categories were analysed and the results showed that enzymatic hydrolysis and neutralisation of the CaCO3 are the environmental hotspots of the system contributing up to 85% to the overall impacts. Two optimisation scenarios were evaluated: (1) using a reduced HCl amount in the neutralisation stage and (2) co-fermentation of xylose and glucose, for maximal ethanol yield. Both scenarios displayed significant environmental impact improvements.

PCA-ANFIS based prediction for water Injection effectiveness cycle in oil fields.

By proposing a numerical based method on PCA-ANFIS(Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System), this paper is focusing on solving the problem of uncertain cycle of water injection in the oilfield. As the dimension of original data is reduced by PCA, ANFIS can be applied for training and testing the new data proposed by this paper. The correctness of PCA-ANFIS models are verified by the injection statistics data collected from 116 wells inside an oilfield, the average absolute error of testing is 1.80 months. With comparison by non-PCA based models which average error is 4.33 months largely ahead of PCA-ANFIS based models, it shows that the testing accuracy has been greatly enhanced by our approach. With the conclusion of the above testing, the PCA-ANFIS method is robust in predicting the effectiveness cycle of water injection which helps oilfield developers to design the water injection scheme.

Phytoplankton versus macrophyte contribution to primary production and biogeochemical cycles of a coastal mesotidal system. A modelling approach

This study presents an assessment of the contributions of various primary producers to the global annual production and N/P cycles of a coastal system, namely the Arcachon Bay, by means of a numerical model. This 3D model fully couples hydrodynamic with ecological processes and simulates nitrogen, silicon and phosphorus cycles as well as phytoplankton, macroalgae and seagrasses. Total annual production rates for the different components were calculated for different years (2005, 2007 and 2009) during a time period of drastic reduction in seagrass beds since 2005. The total demand of nitrogen and phosphorus was also calculated and discussed with regards to the riverine inputs. Moreover, this study presents the first estimation of particulate organic carbon export to the adjacent open ocean. The calculated annual net production for the Arcachon Bay (except microphytobenthos, not included in the model) ranges between 22,850 and 35,300 tons of carbon. The main producers are seagrasses in all the years considered with a contribution ranging from 56% to 81% of global production. According to our model, the -30% reduction in seagrass bed surface between 2005 and 2007, led to an approximate 55% reduction in seagrass production, while during the same period of time, macroalgae and phytoplankton enhanced their productions by about +83% and +46% respectively. Nonetheless, the phytoplankton production remains about eightfold higher than the macroalgae production. Our results also highlight the importance of remineralisation inside the Bay, since riverine inputs only fulfill at maximum 73% nitrogen and 13% phosphorus demands during the years 2005, 2007 and 2009. Calculated advection allowed a rough estimate of the organic matter export: about 10% of the total production in the bay was exported, originating mainly from the seagrass compartment, since most of the labile organic matter was remineralised inside the bay.

Harmonization of Life Cycle Climate Performance and Its Improvements for Heat Pump Applications

Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) is an evaluation method by which heating, ventilation, air conditioning and refrigeration systems can be evaluated for their global warming impact over the course of their complete life cycle. LCCP is more inclusive than previous metrics such as Total Equivalent Warming Impact. It is calculated as the sum of direct and indirect emissions generated over the lifetime of the system “from cradle to grave”. Direct emissions include all effects from the release of refrigerants into the atmosphere during the lifetime of the system. This includes annual leakage and losses during the disposal of the unit. The indirect emissions include emissions from the energy consumption during manufacturing process, lifetime operation, and disposal of the system. This thesis proposes a standardized approach to the use of LCCP and traceable data sources for all aspects of the calculation. An equation is proposed that unifies the efforts of previous researchers. Data sources are recommended for average values for all LCCP inputs. A residential heat pump sample problem is presented illustrating the methodology. The heat pump is evaluated at five U.S. locations in different climate zones. An excel tool was developed for residential heat pumps using the proposed method. The primary factor in the LCCP calculation is the energy consumption of the system. The effects of advanced vapor compression cycles are then investigated for heat pump applications. Advanced cycle options attempt to reduce the energy consumption in various ways. There are three categories of advanced cycle options: subcooling cycles, expansion loss recovery cycles and multi-stage cycles. The cycles selected for research are the suction line heat exchanger cycle, the expander cycle, the ejector cycle, and the vapor injection cycle. The cycles are modeled using Engineering Equation Solver and the results are applied to the LCCP methodology. The expander cycle, ejector cycle and vapor injection cycle are effective in reducing LCCP of a residential heat pump by 5.6%, 8.2% and 10.5%, respectively in Phoenix, AZ. The advanced cycles are evaluated with the use of low GWP refrigerants and are capable of reducing the LCCP of a residential heat by 13.7%, 16.3% and 18.6% using a refrigerant with a GWP of 10. To meet the U.S. Department of Energy’s goal of reducing residential energy use by 40% by 2025 with a proportional reduction in all other categories of residential energy consumption, a reduction in the energy consumption of a residential heat pump of 34.8% with a refrigerant GWP of 10 for Phoenix, AZ is necessary. A combination of advanced cycle, control options and low GWP refrigerants are necessary to meet this goal.

Assessment and Life-Cycle Analysis of Recycled Materials for Sustainable Highway

Recycled materials replacing part of virgin materials in highway applications has shown great benefits to the society and environment. Beneficial use of recycled materials can save landfill places, sparse natural resources, and energy consumed in milling and hauling virgin materials. Low price of recycled materials is favorable to cost-saving in pavement projects. Considering the availability of recycled materials in the State of Maryland (MD), four abundant recycled materials, recycled concrete aggregate (RCA), recycled asphalt pavement (RAP), foundry sand (FS), and dredged materials (DM), were studied. A survey was conducted to collect the information of current usage of the four recycled materials in States’ Department of Transportation (DOTs). Based on literature review, mechanical and environmental properties, recommendations, and suggested test standards were investigated separately for the four recycled materials in different applications. Constrains in using these materials were further studied in order to provide recommendations for the development of related MD specifications. To measure social and environmental benefits from using recycled materials, life-cycle assessment was carried out with life-cycle analysis (LCA) program, PaLATE, and green highway rating system, BEST-in-Highway. The survey results indicated the wide use of RAP and RCA in hot mix asphalt (HMA) and graded aggregate base (GAB) respectively, while FS and DM are less used in field. Environmental concerns are less, but the possibly low quality and some adverse mechanical characteristics may hinder the widely use of these recycled materials. Technical documents and current specifications provided by State DOTs are good references to the usage of these materials in MD. Literature review showed consistent results with the survey. Studies from experimental research or site tests showed satisfactory performance of these materials in highway applications, when the substitution rate, gradation, temperature, moisture, or usage of additives, etc. meet some requirements. The results from LCA revealed significant cost savings in using recycled materials. Energy and water consumption, gas emission, and hazardous waste generation generally showed reductions to some degree. Use of new recycled technologies will contribute to more sustainable highways.

Energy Management of a Battery-Ultracapacitor Hybrid Energy Storage System in Electric Vehicles

Electric vehicle (EV) batteries tend to have accelerated degradation due to high peak power and harsh charging/discharging cycles during acceleration and deceleration periods, particularly in urban driving conditions. An oversized energy storage system (ESS) can meet the high power demands; however, it suffers from increased size, volume and cost. In order to reduce the overall ESS size and extend battery cycle life, a battery-ultracapacitor (UC) hybrid energy storage system (HESS) has been considered as an alternative solution. In this work, we investigate the optimized configuration, design, and energy management of a battery-UC HESS. One of the major challenges in a HESS is to design an energy management controller for real-time implementation that can yield good power split performance. We present the methodologies and solutions to this problem in a battery-UC HESS with a DC-DC converter interfacing with the UC and the battery. In particular, a multi-objective optimization problem is formulated to optimize the power split in order to prolong the battery lifetime and to reduce the HESS power losses. This optimization problem is numerically solved for standard drive cycle datasets using Dynamic Programming (DP). Trained using the DP optimal results, an effective real-time implementation of the optimal power split is realized based on Neural Network (NN). This proposed online energy management controller is applied to a midsize EV model with a 360V/34kWh battery pack and a 270V/203Wh UC pack. The proposed online energy management controller effectively splits the load demand with high power efficiency and also effectively reduces the battery peak current. More importantly, a 38V-385Wh battery and a 16V-2.06Wh UC HESS hardware prototype and a real-time experiment platform has been developed. The real-time experiment results have successfully validated the real-time implementation feasibility and effectiveness of the real-time controller design for the battery-UC HESS. A battery State-of-Health (SoH) estimation model is developed as a performance metric to evaluate the battery cycle life extension effect. It is estimated that the proposed online energy management controller can extend the battery cycle life by over 60%.

Self-Organizing Map Neural Architectures Based on Limit Cycle Attractors

Recent efforts to develop large-scale neural architectures have paid relatively little attention to the use of self-organizing maps (SOMs). Part of the reason is that most conventional SOMs use a static encoding representation: Each input is typically represented by the fixed activation of a single node in the map layer. This not only carries information in an inefficient and unreliable way that impedes building robust multi-SOM neural architectures, but it is also inconsistent with rhythmic oscillations in biological neural networks. Here I develop and study an alternative encoding scheme that instead uses limit cycle attractors of multi-focal activity patterns to represent input patterns/sequences. Such a fundamental change in representation raises several questions: Can this be done effectively and reliably? If so, will map formation still occur? What properties would limit cycle SOMs exhibit? Could multiple such SOMs interact effectively? Could robust architectures based on such SOMs be built for practical applications? The principal results of examining these questions are as follows. First, conditions are established for limit cycle attractors to emerge in a SOM through self-organization when encoding both static and temporal sequence inputs. It is found that under appropriate conditions a set of learned limit cycles are stable, unique, and preserve input relationships. In spite of the continually changing activity in a limit cycle SOM, map formation continues to occur reliably. Next, associations between limit cycles in different SOMs are learned. It is shown that limit cycles in one SOM can be successfully retrieved by another SOM’s limit cycle activity. Control timings can be set quite arbitrarily during both training and activation. Importantly, the learned associations generalize to new inputs that have never been seen during training. Finally, a complete neural architecture based on multiple limit cycle SOMs is presented for robotic arm control. This architecture combines open-loop and closed-loop methods to achieve high accuracy and fast movements through smooth trajectories. The architecture is robust in that disrupting or damaging the system in a variety of ways does not completely destroy the system. I conclude that limit cycle SOMs have great potentials for use in constructing robust neural architectures.

Eutrophization process in a system used for rearing the nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), São Paulo State, Brazil

Dos vários aspectos inerentes à aquicultura, a eutrofização devido ao manejo alimentar tem efeitos diretos no viveiro e no sistema aquático no qual ele está inserido. Neste contexto, o presente estudo objetivou analisar a qualidade da água do sistema aquático de um viveiro. em uma criação de tilápia do Nilo (Oreochromis niloticus), foram realizadas coletas de água em seis pontos do sistema aquático, durante um ciclo de engorda (seis meses), compreendendo a água de abastecimento, o viveiro, o efluente e sua mistura com as águas do sistema. Das variáveis ambientais analisadas nas amostras, a aplicação de uma análise de componentes principais revelou que as concentrações de clorofila-a, nitrogênio e fósforo total e o teor de matéria orgânica foram responsáveis pelas variações observadas no sistema durante o cultivo. Variações extrínsecas ao viveiro de cultivo deixaram evidente que o manejo deve ser aplicado a todo o sistema aquático, minimizando efeitos ambientais negativos.

Age-Dependent Fragility and Life-Cycle Cost Analysis of Timber and Steel Distribution Poles Subjected to Hurricanes

Power distribution systems are susceptible to extreme damage from natural hazards especially hurricanes. Hurricane winds can knock down distribution poles thereby causing damage to the system and power outages which can result in millions of dollars in lost revenue and restoration costs. Timber has been the dominant material used to support overhead lines in distribution systems. Recently however, utility companies have been searching for a cost-effective alternative to timber poles due to environmental concerns, durability, high cost of maintenance and need for improved aesthetics. Steel has emerged as a viable alternative to timber due to its advantages such as relatively lower maintenance cost, light weight, consistent performance, and invulnerability to wood-pecker attacks. Both timber and steel poles are prone to deterioration over time due to decay in the timber and corrosion of the steel. This research proposes a framework for conducting fragility analysis of timber and steel poles subjected to hurricane winds considering deterioration of the poles over time. Monte Carlo simulation was used to develop the fragility curves considering uncertainties in strength, geometry and wind loads. A framework for life-cycle cost analysis is also proposed to compare the steel and timber poles. The results show that steel poles can have superior reliability and lower life-cycle cost compared to timber poles, which makes them suitable substitutes.

Dynamics and diversity of Escherichia coli in animals and system management of the manure on a commercial farrow-to-finish pig farm

The objective of this study was to determine the dynamics and diversity of Escherichia coli populations in animal and environmental lines of a commercial farrow-to-finish pig farm in Spain along a full production cycle (July 2008 to July 2009), with special attention to antimicrobial resistance and the presence of integrons. In the animal line, a total of 256 isolates were collected from pregnant sows (10 samples and 20 isolates), 1-week-old piglets (20 samples and 40 isolates), unweaned piglets (20 samples and 38 isolates), growers (20 samples and 40 isolates), and the finishers' floor pen (6 samples and 118 isolates); from the underfloor pits and farm slurry tank environmental lines, 100 and 119 isolates, respectively, were collected. Our results showed that E. coli populations in the pig fecal microbiota and in the farm environment are highly dynamic and show high levels of diversity. These issues have been proven through DNA-based typing data (repetitive extragenic palindromic PCR [REP-PCR]) and phenotypic typing data (antimicrobial resistance profile comprising 19 antimicrobials). Clustering of the sampling groups based on their REP-PCR typing results showed that the spatial features (the line) had a stronger weight than the temporal features (sampling week) for the clustering of E. coli populations; this weight was less significant when clustering was performed based on resistotypes. Among animals, finishers harbored an E. coli population different from those of the remaining animal populations studied, considering REP-PCR fingerprints and resistotypes. This population, the most important from a public health perspective, demonstrated the lowest levels of antimicrobial resistance and integron presence.