Dynamic analysis using finite elements to calculate the critical wear section of the contact wire in suburban railway overhead conductor rails

The purpose of this study is to determine the critical wear levels of the contact wire of the catenary on metropolitan lines. The study has focussed on the zones of contact wire where localised wear is produced, normally associated with the appearance of electric arcs. To this end, a finite element model has been developed to study the dynamics of pantograph-catenary interaction. The model includes a zone of localised wear and a singularity in the contact wire in order to simulate the worst case scenario from the point of view of stresses. In order to consider the different stages in the wire wear process, different depths and widths of the localised wear zone were defined. The results of the dynamic simulations performed for each stage of wear let the area of the minimum resistant section of the contact wire be determined for which stresses are greater than the allowable stress. The maximum tensile stress reached in the contact wire shows a clear sensitivity to the size of the local wear zone, defined by its width and depth. In this way, if the wear measurements taken with an overhead line recording vehicle are analysed, it will be possible to calculate the potential breakage risk of the wire. A strong dependence of the tensile forces of the contact wire has also been observed. These results will allow priorities to be set for replacing the most critical sections of wire, thereby making maintenance much more efficient. The results obtained show that the wire replacement criteria currently borne in mind have turned out to be appropriate, although in some wear scenarios these criteria could be adjusted even more, and so prolong the life cycle of the contact wire.

Detection and Tracking of Dynamic Objects. A MultiRobot approach to Critical Infrastructures Surveillance.

Despite that Critical Infrastructures (CIs) security and surveillance are a growing concern for many countries and companies, Multi Robot Systems (MRSs) have not been yet broadly used in this type of facilities. This dissertation presents a novel study of the challenges arisen by the implementation of this type of systems and proposes solutions to specific problems. First, a comprehensive analysis of different types of CIs has been carried out, emphasizing the influence of the different characteristics of the facilities in the design of a security and surveillance MRS. One of the most important needs for the surveillance of a CI is the detection of intruders. From a technical point of view this problem can be abstracted as equivalent to the Detection and Tracking of Mobile Objects (DATMO). This dissertation proposes algorithms to solve this specific problem in a CI environment. Using 3D range images of the environment as input data, two detection algorithms for ground robots have been developed. These detection algorithms provide a list of moving objects in the robot detection area. Direct image differentiation and computer vision techniques are used when the robot is static. Alternatively, multi-layer ground reconstructions are compared to detect the dynamic objects when the robot is moving. Since CIs usually spread over large areas, it is very useful to incorporate aerial vehicles in the surveillance MRS. Therefore, a moving object detection algorithm for aerial vehicles has been also developed. This algorithm compares the real optical flow obtained from a down-face oriented camera with an artificial optical flow computed using a RANSAC based homography matrix. Two tracking algorithms have been developed to follow the moving objects trajectories. These algorithms can efficiently handle occlusions and crossings, as well as exchange information among robots. The multirobot tracking can be applied to any type of communication structure: centralized, decentralized or a combination of both. Even more, the developed tracking algorithms are independent of the detection algorithms and could be potentially used with other detection procedures or even with static sensors, such as cameras. In addition, using the 3D point clouds available to the robots, a relative localization algorithm has been developed to improve the position estimation of a given robot with observations from other robots. All the developed algorithms have been extensively tested in different simulated CIs using the Webots robotics simulator. Furthermore, the algorithms have also been validated with real robots operating in real scenarios. In conclusion, this dissertation presents a multirobot approach to Critical Infrastructure Surveillance, mainly focusing on Detecting and Tracking Dynamic Objects.

Caracterización de Sistemas intensivos en Software desde un punto de vista de innovación=Characterizing Software-intensive Systems from the innovation point of view

La innovación en Sistemas Intesivos en Software está alcanzando relevancia por múltiples razones: el software está presente en sectores como automóvil, teléfonos móviles o salud. Las empresas necesitan conocer aquellos factores que afectan a la innovación para incrementar las probabilidades de éxito en el desarrollo de sus productos y, la evaluación de productos sofware es un mecanismo potente para capturar este conocimiento. En consecuencia, las empresas necesitan evaluar sus productos desde la perpectiva de innovación para reducir la distancia entre los productos desarrollados y el mercado. Esto es incluso más relevante en el caso de los productos intensivos en software, donde el tiempo real, la oportunidad, complejidad, interoperabilidad, capacidad de respuesta y compartción de recursos son características críticas de los nuevos sistemas. La evaluación de la innovación de productos ya ha sido estudiada y se han definido algunos esquemas de evaluación pero no son específicos para Sistemas intensivos en Sofwtare; además, no se ha alcanzado consenso en los factores ni el procedimiento de evaluación. Por lo tanto, tiene sentido trabajar en la definición de un marco de evaluación de innovación enfocado a Sistemas intesivos en Software. Esta tesis identifica los elementos necesarios para construir in marco para la evaluación de de Sistemas intensivos en Software desde el punto de vista de la innovación. Se han identificado dos componentes como partes del marco de evaluación: un modelo de referencia y una herramienta adaptativa y personalizable para la realización de la evaluación y posicionamiento de la innovación. El modelo de referencia está compuesto por cuatro elementos principales que caracterizan la evaluación de innovación de productos: los conceptos, modelos de innovación, cuestionarios de evaluación y la evaluación de productos. El modelo de referencia aporta las bases para definir instancias de los modelos de evaluación de innovación de productos que pueden se evaluados y posicionados en la herramienta a través de cuestionarios y que de forma automatizada aporta los resultados de la evaluación y el posicionamiento respecto a la innovación de producto. El modelo de referencia ha sido rigurosamente construido aplicando modelado conceptual e integración de vistas junto con la aplicación de métodos cualitativos de investigación. La herramienta ha sido utilizada para evaluar productos como Skype a través de la instanciación del modelo de referencia. ABSTRACT Innovation in Software intensive Systems is becoming relevant for several reasons: software is present embedded in many sectors like automotive, robotics, mobile phones or heath care. Firms need to have knowledge about factors affecting the innovation to increase the probability of success in their product development and the assessment of innovation in software products is a powerful mechanism to capture this knowledge. Therefore, companies need to assess products from an innovation perspective to reduce the gap between their developed products and the market. This is even more relevant in the case of SiSs, where real time, timeliness, complexity, interoperability, reactivity, and resource sharing are critical features of a new system. Many authors have analysed product innovation assessment and some schemas have been developed but they are not specific to SiSs; in addition, there is no consensus about the factors or the procedures for performing an assessment. Therefore, it has sense to work in the definition of a customized software product innovation evaluation framework. This thesis identifies the elements needed to build a framework to assess software products from the innovation perspective. Two components have been identified as part of the framework to assess Software intensive Systems from the innovation perspective: a reference-model and an adaptive and customizable tool to perform the assessment and to position product innovation. The reference-model is composed by four main elements characterizing product innovation assessment: concepts, innovation models, assessment questionnaires and product assessment. The reference model provides the umbrella to define instances of product innovation assessment models that can be assessed and positioned through questionnaires in the proposed tool that also provides automation in the assessment and positioning of innovation. The reference-model has been rigorously built by applying conceptual modelling and view integration integrated with qualitative research methods. The tool has been used to assess products like Skype through models instantiated from the reference-model.

Reduction of critical mass in a chemotaxis system by external application of a chemoattractant

In this paper we study non-negative radially symmetric solutions of a parabolic-elliptic Keller-Segel system. The system describes the chemotactic movement of cells under the additional circumstance that an external application of a chemo attractant at a distinguished point is introduced.

Qualitative analysis of critical moments in basketball

The aim of this paper was to know the coach point of view about the critical moment concept in basketball. The methodology used in our research is a qualitative methodology. The instrument used to obtain the data was the semi- structured interviews. There were interviewed 12 ACB league coaches during the 2011/12 season. Results show that incertitude is associated to the critical moment concept. Last minutes of close games and also overtime are identified as critical moment of the game. There is nott any variable in statistics considered by all coaches to determine the critical moment, and they were agree that respecting some game rules is basic to face up the critical moment.

Análisis cuantitativo y cualitativo de los momentos críticos en baloncesto = Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the critical moments in basketball

El MC en baloncesto es aquel fenómeno relacionado con el juego que presenta unas características particulares determinadas por la idiosincrasia de un equipo y puede afectar a los protagonistas y por ende al devenir del juego. En la presente Tesis se ha estudiado la incidencia del MC en Liga A.C.B. de baloncesto y para su desarrollo en profundidad se ha planteado dos investigaciones una cuantitativa y otra cualitativa cuya metodología se detalla a continuación: La investigación cuantitativa se ha basado en la técnica de estudio del “Performance analysis”, para ello se han estudiado cuatro temporadas de la Liga A.C.B. (del 2007/08 al 2010/11), tal y como refleja en la bibliografía consultada se han tomado como momentos críticos del juego a los últimos cinco minutos de partidos donde la diferencia de puntos fue de seis puntos y todos los Tiempos Extras disputados, de tal manera que se han estudiado 197 momentos críticos. La contextualización del estudio se ha hecho en función de la variables situacionales “game location” (local o visitante), “team quality” (mejores o peores clasificados) y “competition” (fases de LR y Playoff). Para la interpretación de los resultados se han realizado los siguientes análisis descriptivos: 1) Análisis Discriminante, 2) Regresión Lineal Múltiple; y 3) Análisis del Modelo Lineal General Multivariante. La investigación cualitativa se ha basado en la técnica de investigación de la entrevista semiestructurada. Se entrevistaron a 12 entrenadores que militaban en la Liga A.C.B. durante la temporada 2011/12, cuyo objetivo ha sido conocer el punto de vista que tiene el entrenador sobre el concepto del MC y que de esta forma pudiera dar un enfoque más práctico basado en su conocimiento y experiencia acerca de cómo actuar ante el MC en el baloncesto. Los resultados de ambas investigaciones coinciden en señalar la importancia del MC sobre el resultado final del juego. De igual forma, el concepto en sí entraña una gran complejidad por lo que se considera fundamental la visión científica de la observación del juego y la percepción subjetiva que presenta el entrenador ante el fenómeno, para la cual los aspectos psicológicos de sus protagonistas (jugadores y entrenadores) son determinantes. ABSTRACT The Critical Moment (CM) in basketball is a related phenomenon with the game that has particular features determined by the idiosyncrasies of a team and can affect the players and therefore the future of the game. In this Thesis we have studied the impact of CM in the A.C.B. League and from a profound development two investigations have been raised, quantitative and qualitative whose methodology is as follows: The quantitative research is based on the technique of study "Performance analysis", for this we have studied four seasons in the A.C.B. League (2007/08 to 2010/11), and as reflected in the literature the Critical Moments of the games were taken from the last five minutes of games where the point spread was six points and all overtimes disputed, such that 197 critical moments have been studied. The contextualization of the study has been based on the situational variables "game location" (home or away), "team quality" (better or lower classified) and "competition" (LR and Playoff phases). For the interpretation of the results the following descriptive analyzes were performed: 1) Discriminant Analysis, 2) Multiple Linear Regression Analysis; and 3) Analysis of Multivariate General Linear Model. Qualitative research is based on the technique of investigation of a semi-structured interview. 12 coaches who belonged to the A.C.B. League were interviewed in seasons 2011/12, which aimed to determine the point of view that the coach has on the CM concept and thus could give a more practical approach based on their knowledge and experience about how to deal with the CM in basketball. The results of both studies agree on the importance of the CM on the final outcome of the game. Similarly, the concept itself is highly complex so the scientific view of the observation of the game is considered essential as well as the subjective perception the coach presents before the phenomenon, for which the psychological aspects of their characters (players and coaches) are crucial.

Determining electric vehicle charging point locations considering drivers' daily activities

In this paper the daily temporal and spatial behavior of electric vehicles (EVs) is modelled using an activity-based (ActBM) microsimulation model for Flanders region (Belgium). Assuming that all EVs are completely charged at the beginning of the day, this mobility model is used to determine the percentage of Flemish vehicles that cannot cover their programmed daily trips and need to be recharged during the day. Assuming a variable electricity price, an optimization algorithm determines when and where EVs can be recharged at minimum cost for their owners. This optimization takes into account the individual mobility constraint for each vehicle, as they can only be charged when the car is stopped and the owner is performing an activity. From this information, the aggregated electric demand for Flanders is obtained, identifying the most overloaded areas at the critical hours. Finally it is also analyzed what activities EV owners are underway during their recharging period. From this analysis, different actions for public charging point deployment in different areas and for different activities are proposed.

Feo, inútil, inestable: pensamiento crítico contemporáneo y procesos proyectivos en arquitectura = Ugly, useless, unstable: contemporary critical thought and projective processes in architecture

La presente tesis doctoral persigue dos objetivos simultáneos: Determinar el alcance de los criterios clásicos para la evaluación de arquitectura y poner en crisis la prevalencia de esos mismos criterios dentro del marco crítico y productivo actual. En concreto, esta tesis se interroga sobre la posible contribución de determinadas corrientes del pensamiento post-estructuralista y neo-materialista a las tareas de expansión y transformación de los criterios clásicos antes mencionados. Asimismo, se plantea la oportunidad de formalizar estas incorporaciones conceptuales como metodologías para el proyectar arquitectónico. La tesis emplea un análisis pormenorizado de las cualidades implícitas en la triada Firmitas, Utilitas, Venustas elaborada por Vitruvio como vehículo para calibrar la influencia de los paradigmas de pensamiento clásico en nuestras posiciones críticas contemporáneas. Como reacción al carácter dominante de dichos paradigmas, y con la ayuda de una compilación selectiva de ejemplos procedentes de los campos artístico y arquitectónico, la presente tesis procede a examinar y clasificar diversas estrategias arquitectónicas basadas en la no conformidad con los criterios clásicos de evaluación de la disciplina. A la hora de realizar esta tarea, y con el objetivo de superar el dualismo trascendental que caracteriza la gran mayoría de dichos criterios clásicos, se propone un modelo analítico y multidimensional que formula las instancias arquitectónicas como posibles posiciones dentro de un extenso continuo combinatorio de cualidades formales, estructurales y organizativas. Este modelo conceptual permite replantear el aparente antagonismo entre los principios de Vitruvio y sus opuestos, estableciendo en su lugar un dominio operativo continuo de producción arquitectónica. Esta operación abre una ventana de oportunidad para expandir los límites del marco crítico actual más allá de las fronteras establecidas por nuestra herencia clásica. En consecuencia con esta voluntad, la presente tesis pretende habilitar un ámbito para el análisis crítico de las estrategias que caracterizan ciertas corrientes del proyectar contemporáneo, pero también contribuir a informar nuevas aproximaciones metodológicas al proceso de proyecto, desplazando progresivamente su foco desde lo descriptivo hacia lo proyectivo. ABSTRACT This doctoral thesis attempts to simultaneously determine the scope of the classical criteria for the evaluation of architecture and challenge their prevalence within the current framework of architectural production and criticism. It examines how specific strands of post-structuralism and neo-materialism may contribute to both the expansion and the transformation of these criteria and, in doing so, sets itself the goal of mobilising these conceptual incorporations as explicit design methodologies. A detailed analysis of the formal, structural and organisational qualities implicit in Vitruvius’ triad Firmitas, Utilitas, Venustas is used as a starting point to determine the influence of classical paradigms in our current critical positions. As a reaction to this critical pervasiveness, and supported by a curated collection of artistic and architectural works, diverse approaches to non-compliance with the classical criteria of assessment are examined and classified. In order to facilitate this endeavour -and to overcome the transcendental dualism of most classical critical approaches in architecture- this thesis puts forward an analytical, multidimensional model that formulates architectural instances as possible positions within a larger combinatory continuum of formal, structural and organisational qualities. Using this conceptual model, the apparent antagonism between Vitruvius’ principles and its non-compliant opposites is reframed as a continuous operative domain of architectural production, which in turn opens up a window of opportunity to expand the limits of our critical framework beyond the boundaries of classical paradigms. In doing so, this thesis attempts not only to foster a better understanding of some of the strategic approaches that characterise contemporary systems of architectural production, but also to inform future methodological approaches to architectural design, hence situating itself beyond the domain of the descriptive and moving towards the projective.

Design Parameter Analysis of Point Absorber WEC via an Evolutionary-Algorithm-Based Dimensioning Tool

Wave energy conversion has an essential difference from other renewable energies since the dependence between the devices design and the energy resource is stronger. Dimensioning is therefore considered a key stage when a design project of Wave Energy Converters (WEC) is undertaken. Location, WEC concept, Power Take-Off (PTO) type, control strategy and hydrodynamic resonance considerations are some of the critical aspects to take into account to achieve a good performance. The paper proposes an automatic dimensioning methodology to be accomplished at the initial design project stages and the following elements are described to carry out the study: an optimization design algorithm, its objective functions and restrictions, a PTO model, as well as a procedure to evaluate the WEC energy production. After that, a parametric analysis is included considering different combinations of the key parameters previously introduced. A variety of study cases are analysed from the point of view of energy production for different design-parameters and all of them are compared with a reference case. Finally, a discussion is presented based on the results obtained, and some recommendations to face the WEC design stage are given.

The Nucleoporin Nup153 Plays a Critical Role in Multiple Types of Nuclear Export

The fundamental process of nucleocytoplasmic transport takes place through the nuclear pore. Peripheral pore structures are presumably poised to interact with transport receptors and their cargo as these receptor complexes first encounter the pore. One such peripheral structure likely to play an important role in nuclear export is the basket structure located on the nuclear side of the pore. At present, Nup153 is the only nucleoporin known to localize to the surface of this basket, suggesting that Nup153 is potentially one of the first pore components an RNA or protein encounters during export. In this study, anti-Nup153 antibodies were used to probe the role of Nup153 in nuclear export in Xenopus oocytes. We found that Nup153 antibodies block three major classes of RNA export, that of snRNA, mRNA, and 5S rRNA. Nup153 antibodies also block the NES protein export pathway, specifically the export of the HIV Rev protein, as well as Rev-dependent RNA export. Not all export was blocked; Nup153 antibodies did not impede the export of tRNA or the recycling of importin β to the cytoplasm. The specific antibodies used here also did not affect nuclear import, whether mediated by importin α/β or by transportin. Overall, the results indicate that Nup153 is crucial to multiple classes of RNA and protein export, being involved at a vital juncture point in their export pathways. This juncture point appears to be one that is bypassed by tRNA during its export. We asked whether a physical interaction between RNA and Nup153 could be observed, using homoribopolymers as sequence-independent probes for interaction. Nup153, unlike four other nucleoporins including Nup98, associated strongly with poly(G) and significantly with poly(U). Thus, Nup153 is unique among the nucleoporins tested in its ability to interact with RNA and must do so either directly or indirectly through an adaptor protein. These results suggest a unique mechanistic role for Nup153 in the export of multiple cargos.

Muscle-specific mutations accumulate with aging in critical human mtDNA control sites for replication

The recently discovered aging-dependent large accumulation of point mutations in the human fibroblast mtDNA control region raised the question of their occurrence in postmitotic tissues. In the present work, analysis of biopsied or autopsied human skeletal muscle revealed the absence or only minimal presence of those mutations. By contrast, surprisingly, most of 26 individuals 53 to 92 years old, without a known history of neuromuscular disease, exhibited at mtDNA replication control sites in muscle an accumulation of two new point mutations, i.e., A189G and T408A, which were absent or marginally present in 19 individuals younger than 34 years. These two mutations were not found in fibroblasts from 22 subjects 64 to 101 years of age (T408A), or were present only in three subjects in very low amounts (A189G). Furthermore, in several older individuals exhibiting an accumulation in muscle of one or both of these mutations, they were nearly absent in other tissues, whereas the most frequent fibroblast-specific mutation (T414G) was present in skin, but not in muscle. Among eight additional individuals exhibiting partial denervation of their biopsied muscle, four subjects >80 years old had accumulated the two muscle-specific point mutations, which were, conversely, present at only very low levels in four subjects ≤40 years old. The striking tissue specificity of the muscle mtDNA mutations detected here and their mapping at critical sites for mtDNA replication strongly point to the involvement of a specific mutagenic machinery and to the functional relevance of these mutations.

Disruption of RB/E2F-1 interaction by single point mutations in E2F-1 enhances S-phase entry and apoptosis.

The retinoblastoma protein (RB) has been proposed to function as a negative regulator of cell proliferation by complexing with cellular proteins such as the transcription factor E2F. To study the biological consequences of the RB/E2F-1 interaction, point mutants of E2F-1 which fail to bind to RB were isolated by using the yeast two-hybrid system. Sequence analysis revealed that within the minimal 18-amino acid peptide of E2F-1 required for RB binding, five residues, Tyr (position 411), Glu (419), and Asp-Leu-Phe (423-425), are critical. These amino acids are conserved among the known E2F family members. While mutation of any of these five amino acids abolished binding to RB, all mutants retained their full transactivation potential. Expression of mutated E2F-1, when compared with that of wild-type, significantly accelerated entry into S phase and subsequent apoptosis. These results provide direct genetic evidence for the biological significance of the RB/E2F interaction and strongly suggest that the interplay between RB and E2F is critical for proper cell cycle progression.

Identification of a receptor/G-protein contact site critical for signaling specificity and G-protein activation.

Each G protein-coupled receptor recognizes only a distinct subset of the many structurally closely related G proteins expressed within a cell. How this selectively is achieved at a molecular level is not well understood, particularly since no specific point-to-point contact sites between a receptor and its cognate G protein(s) have been identified. In this study, we demonstrate that a 4-aa epitope on the m2 muscarinic acetylcholine receptor, a prototypical Gi/o-coupled receptor, can specifically recognize the C-terminal 5 aa of alpha subunits of the Gi/o protein family. The m2 receptor residues involved in this interaction are predicted to be located on one side of an alpha-helical receptor region present at the junction between the third intracellular loop and the sixth transmembrane domain. Coexpression studies with hybrid m2/m3 muscarinic receptors and mutant G-protein alpha q subunits showed that the receptor/G-protein contact site identified in this study is essential for coupling specificity and G-protein activation.

Detrital zircon geochronology data, petrographic point count data and paleocurrent indicator data of Triassic turbidites in the Nanpanjiang Basin, South China

Triassic turbidites of the Nanpanjiang basin of south China represent the most expansive and voluminous siliciclastic turbidite accumulation in south China. The Nanpanjiang basin occurs at a critical junction between the southern margin of the south China plate and the Indochina, Siamo and Sibumasu plates to the south and southwest. The Triassic Yangtze carbonate shelf and isolated carbonated platforms in the basin have been extensively studied, but silicilastic turbidites in the basin have received relatively little attention. Deciphering the facies, paleocurrent indicators and provenance of the Triassic turbidites is important for several reasons: it promises to help resolve the timing of plate collisions along suture zones bordering the basin to the south and southwest, it will enable evaluation of which suture zones and Precambrian massifs were source areas, and it will allow an evaluation of the impact of the siliciclastic flux on carbonate platform evolution within the basin. Turbidites in the basin include the Early Triassic Shipao Formation and the Middle-Late Triassic Baifeng, Xinyuan, Lanmu Bianyang and Laishike formations. Each ranges upward of 700 m and the thickest is nearly 3 km. The turbidites contain very-fine sand in the northern part of the basin whereas the central and southern parts of the basin also commonly contain fine and rarely medium sand size. Coarser sand sizes occur where paleocurrents are from the south, and in this area some turbidites exhibit complete bouma sequences with graded A divisions. Successions contain numerous alternations between mud-rich and sand-rich intervals with thickness trends corresponding to proximal/ distal fan components. Spectacularly preserved sedimentary structures enable robust evaluation of turbidite systems and paleocurrent analyses. Analysis of paleocurrent measurements indicates two major directions of sediment fill. The northern part of the basin was sourced primarily by the Jiangnan massif in the northeast, and the central and southern parts of the basin were sourced primarily from suture zones and the Yunkai massif to the south and southeast respectively. Sandstones of the Lower Triassic Shipao Fm. have volcaniclastic composition including embayed quartz and glass shards. Middle Triassic sandstones are moderately mature, matrix-rich, lithic wackes. The average QFL ratio from all point count samples is 54.1/18.1/27.8% and the QmFLt ratio is 37.8/ 18.1/ 44.1%. Lithic fragments are dominantly claystone and siltstone clasts and metasedimentary clasts such as quartz mica tectonite. Volcanic lithics are rare. Most samples fall in the recycled orogen field of QmFLt plots, indicating a relatively quartz and lithic rich composition consistent with derivation from Precambrian massifs such as the Jiangnan, and Yunkai. A few samples from the southwest part of the basin fall into the dissected arc field, indicating a somewhat more lithic and feldspar-rich composition consistent with derivation from a suture zone Analysis of detrial zircon populations from 17 samples collected across the basin indicate: (1) Several samples contain zircons with concordant ages greater than 3000 Ma, (2) there are widespread peaks across the basin at 1800 Ma and 2500, (3) a widespread 900 Ma population, (3) a widespread population of zircons at 440 Ma, and (5) a larger population of younger zircons about 250 Ma in the southwestern part which is replaced to the north and northwest by a somewhat older population around 260-290 Ma. The 900 Ma provenance fits derivation from the Jiangnan Massif, the 2500, 1800, and 440 Ma provenance fits the Yunkai massif, and the 250 Ma is consistent with convergence and arc development in suture zones bordering the basin on the south or southwest. Early siliciclastic turbidite flux, proximal to source areas impacted carbonate platform evolution by infilling the basin, reducing accommodation space, stabilizing carbonate platform margins and promoting margin progradation. Late arrival, in areas far from source areas caused margin aggradation over a starved basin, development of high relief aggradational escarpments and unstable scalloped margins.

Channel Migration and Avulsion Hazards at Sunshine Point Campground, Mount Rainier National Park, Washington

In November 2006, the flood of record on the upper Nisqually River destroyed part of Sunshine Point Campground in Mount Rainier National Park, Washington. The Nisqually River migrated north and reoccupied five acres of its floodplain; Tahoma Creek partially avulsed into the west floodplain, topping banks of an undersized channel and flooding the campground. I assessed hazards to infrastructure at the old campground location, where the Park proposes to rebuild the remaining campground roads and sites. This assessment focuses on two major hazards: northward Nisqually River migration, which may reincorporate the floodplain into the river destroying infrastructure; and Tahoma Creek avulsions, which may flood the campgroud and deposit sediment burying campground infrastructure. I quantify northward migration by: estimating migration rates and changes to channel width; evaluating river occupation of the pre- and post-2006 campground; and estimating scour depths at revetments protecting the campground. I digitized the Nisqually River channels and channel centerlines from maps and images between 1955 and 2013 into a GIS, which I used to estimate migration rate and river width changes. Centerline migration rates average 9 ft/yr along the length of the Nisqually River study reach; at Sunshine Point lateral migration rates average 11 ft/yr. Maximum migration along the study reach was 19 ft/yr between 2006 and 2009. Greater than average migration rates and channel widths correspond to river confluences and include the Tahoma Creek confluence at Sunshine Point. To determine historical channel locations and the frequency that the river occupied different parts of its floodplain, I digitized the river from maps and images between 1903 and 2013. The Nisqually River flows through Sunshine Point Campground in eight out of 15 historical images. I assess scour at revetments protecting infrastructure from the Nisqually River during a 100-year recurrence interval flood using measured cross-sections. During a 100-year flood, the Nisqually River may scour up to 10 feet below the bed elevation. These scour depths can destabilize critical revetments leaving loose unconsolidated riverbanks exposed to Nisqually River flows. To determine the causes, locations, and frequency of flood hazards from Tahoma Creek avulsions, I field map avulsion channels and compare the results with imagery and channel width changes between 1955 and 2013. Mapped avulsion channels occur with swaths of dead vegetation or nascent vegetation; both dead and recent vegetation are visibly distinct from surrounding vegetation in aerial images. Times of changes to these vegetation anomalies correspond to increases in Tahoma Creek channel width. Avulsions have occurred at least three times in the study period: pre-1955, between 1979 and 1984, and in 2006. The 1984 and 2006 avulsions both occur after increases in Tahoma Creek reach averaged width. The NPS is considering two options to rebuild Sunshine Point Campground, both at the same location. The hazards posed by the Nisqually River and Tahoma Creek at Sunshine Point will affect both construction options equally. Migration hazards to the campground may be reduced by limiting the proposed campground infrastructure to an elevated ridge that has not been occupied by the Nisqually River since 1903. The hazards of damage from migration may be reduced by revetments, which were effective in preventing northward Nisqually River migration in 1959 and 1965. Tahoma Creek avulsions are related increased of Tahoma Creek reach averaged widths, which are near a 58- year maximum, and occurred during a 10-year flood in 1984. The campground may be as susceptible to flooding from avulsions during as little as a 10-year flood. A large avulsion may occur with the next significant Tahoma Creek width increase. Glacial retreat has been shown to increase debris flow activity and increase sediment delivery to Mount Rainier rivers. Increased sediment discharge has been correlated with aggradation, which will further encourage Tahoma Creek avulsions.