Bringing game theory to hypothesis testing: Establishing finite sample bounds on inference

Small sample properties are of fundamental interest when only limited data is avail-able. Exact inference is limited by constraints imposed by speci.c nonrandomizedtests and of course also by lack of more data. These e¤ects can be separated as we propose to evaluate a test by comparing its type II error to the minimal type II error among all tests for the given sample. Game theory is used to establish this minimal type II error, the associated randomized test is characterized as part of a Nash equilibrium of a .ctitious game against nature.We use this method to investigate sequential tests for the di¤erence between twomeans when outcomes are constrained to belong to a given bounded set. Tests ofinequality and of noninferiority are included. We .nd that inference in terms oftype II error based on a balanced sample cannot be improved by sequential sampling or even by observing counter factual evidence providing there is a reasonable gap between the hypotheses.

Dicarboxylic amino acids and glycine-betaine regulate chaperone-mediated protein-disaggregation under stress.

Active protein-disaggregation by a chaperone network composed of ClpB and DnaK + DnaJ + GrpE is essential for the recovery of stress-induced protein aggregates in vitro and in Escherichia coli cells. K-glutamate and glycine-betaine (betaine) naturally accumulate in salt-stressed cells. In addition to providing thermo-protection to native proteins, we found that these osmolytes can strongly and specifically activate ClpB, resulting in an increased efficiency of chaperone-mediated protein disaggregation. Moreover, factors that inhibited the chaperone network by impairing the stability of the ClpB oligomer, such as natural polyamines, dilution, or high salt, were efficiently counteracted by K-glutamate or betaine. The combined protective, counter-negative and net activatory effects of K-glutamate and betaine, allowed protein disaggregation and refolding under heat-shock temperatures that otherwise cause protein aggregation in vitro and in the cell. Mesophilic organisms may thus benefit from a thermotolerant osmolyte-activated chaperone mechanism that can actively rescue protein aggregates, correctly refold and maintain them in a native state under heat-shock conditions.

What do the papers sell?

We model the market for news as a two-sided market where newspapers sell news to readers who value accuracy and sell space to advertisers who value advert-receptive readers. We show that monopolistic newspapers under-report or bias news that sufficiently reduces advertiser profits. Newspaper competition generally reduces the impact of advertising. In fact, as the size of advertising grows, newspapers may paradoxically reduce advertiser bias, due to increasing competition for readers. However, advertisers can counter this effect of competition by committing to news-sensitive cut-off strategies, potentially inducing as much under-reporting as in the monopoly case.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Comparative testing of a miniature diffusion size classifier to assess airborne ultrafine particles under field conditions

Miniature diffusion size classifiers (miniDiSC) are novel handheld devices to measure ultrafine particles (UFP). UFP have been linked to the development of cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases; thus, detection and quantification of these particles are important for evaluating their potential health hazards. As part of the UFP exposure assessments of highwaymaintenance workers in western Switzerland, we compared a miniDiSC with a portable condensation particle counter (P-TRAK). In addition, we performed stationary measurements with a miniDiSC and a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) at a site immediately adjacent to a highway. Measurements with miniDiSC and P-TRAK correlated well (correlation of r = 0.84) but average particle numbers of the miniDiSC were 30%âeuro"60% higher. This difference was significantly increased for mean particle diameters below 40 nm. The correlation between theminiDiSC and the SMPSduring stationary measurements was very high (r = 0.98) although particle numbers from the miniDiSC were 30% lower. Differences between the three devices were attributed to the different cutoff diameters for detection. Correction for this size dependent effect led to very similar results across all counters.We did not observe any significant influence of other particle characteristics. Our results suggest that the miniDiSC provides accurate particle number concentrations and geometric mean diameters at traffic-influenced sites, making it a useful tool for personal exposure assessment in such settings.

Indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase-expressing mature human monocyte-derived dendritic cells expand potent autologous regulatory T cells.

A comprehensive understanding of the complex, autologous cellular interactions and regulatory mechanisms that occur during normal dendritic cell (DC)-stimulated immune responses is critical to optimizing DC-based immunotherapy. We have found that mature, immunogenic human monocyte-derived DCs (moDCs) up-regulate the immune-inhibitory enzyme, indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO). Under stringent autologous culture conditions without exogenous cytokines, mature moDCs expand regulatory T cells (Tregs) by an IDO-dependent mechanism. The priming of resting T cells with autologous, IDO-expressing, mature moDCs results in up to 10-fold expansion of CD4(+)CD25(bright)Foxp3(+)CD127(neg) Tregs. Treg expansion requires moDC contact, CD80/CD86 ligation, and endogenous interleukin-2. Cytofluorographically sorted CD4(+) CD25(bright)Foxp3(+) Tregs inhibit as much as 80% to 90% of DC-stimulated autologous and allogeneic T-cell proliferation, in a dose-dependent manner at Treg:T-cell ratios of 1:1, 1:5, and as low as 1:25. CD4(+)CD25(bright)Foxp3(+) Tregs also suppress the generation of cytotoxic T lymphocytes specific for the Wilms tumor antigen 1, resulting in more than an 80% decrease in specific target cell lysis. Suppression by Tregs is both contact-dependent and transforming growth factor-beta-mediated. Although mature moDCs can generate Tregs by this IDO-dependent mechanism to limit otherwise unrestrained immune responses, inhibition of this counter-regulatory pathway should also prove useful in sustaining responses stimulated by DC-based immunotherapy.

Multiple Paternity in Polyandrous Barn Owls (Tyto alba).

In polyandrous species females produce successive clutches with several males. Female barn owls (Tyto alba) often desert their offspring and mate to produce a 2(nd) annual brood with a second male. We tested whether copulating during chick rearing at the 1(st) annual brood increases the male's likelihood to obtain paternity at the 2(nd) annual breeding attempt of his female mate in case she deserts their brood to produce a second brood with a different male. Using molecular paternity analyses we found that 2 out of 26 (8%) second annual broods of deserting females contained in total 6 extra-pair young out of 15 nestlings. These young were all sired by the male with whom the female had produced the 1(st) annual brood. In contrast, none of the 49 1(st) annual breeding attempts (219 offspring) and of the 20 2(nd) annual breeding attempts (93 offspring) of non-deserting females contained extra-pair young. We suggest that female desertion can select male counter-strategies to increase paternity and hence individual fitness. Alternatively, females may copulate with the 1(st) male to derive genetic benefits, since he is usually of higher quality than the 2(nd) male which is commonly a yearling individual.

Fuel metabolism during exercise in euglycaemia and hyperglycaemia in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus--a prospective single-blinded randomised crossover trial.

Aims/hypothesis We assessed systemic and local muscle fuel metabolism during aerobic exercise in patients with type I diabetes at euglycaemia and hyperglycaemia with identical insulin levels.Methods This was a single-blinded randomised crossover study at a university diabetes unit in Switzerland. We studied seven physically active men with type I diabetes (mean +/- SEM age 33.5 +/- 2.4 years, diabetes duration 20.1 +/- 3.6 years, HbA(1c) 6.7 +/- 0.2% and peak oxygen uptake [VO2peak] 50.3 +/- 4.5 ml min(-1) kg(-1)). Men were studied twice while cycling for 120 min at 55 to 60% of VO2peak, with a blood glucose level randomly set either at 5 or 11 mmol/l and identical insulinaemia. The participants were blinded to the glycaemic level; allocation concealment was by opaque, sealed envelopes. Magnetic resonance spectroscopy was used to quantify intramyocellular glycogen and lipids before and after exercise. Indirect calorimetry and measurement of stable isotopes and counter-regulatory hormones complemented the assessment of local and systemic fuel metabolism.Results The contribution of lipid oxidation to overall energy metabolism was higher in euglycaemia than in hyperglycaemia (49.4 +/- 4.8 vs 30.6 +/- 4.2%; p<0.05). Carbohydrate oxidation accounted for 48.2 +/- 4.7 and 66.6 +/- 4.2% of total energy expenditure in euglycaemia and hyperglycaemia, respectively (p<0.05). The level of intramyocellular glycogen before exercise was higher in hyperglycaemia than in euglycaemia (3.4 +/- 0.3 vs 2.7 +/- 0.2 arbitrary units [AU]; p<0.05). Absolute glycogen consumption tended to be higher in hyperglycaemia than in euglycaemia (1.3 +/- 0.3 vs 0.9 +/- 0.1 AU). Cortisol and growth hormone increased more strongly in euglycaemia than in hyperglycaemia (levels at the end of exercise 634 52 vs 501 +/- 32 nmol/l and 15.5 +/- 4.5 vs 7.4 +/- 2.0 ng/ml, respectively; p<0.05).Conclusions/interpretation Substrate oxidation in type I diabetic patients performing aerobic exercise in euglycaemia is similar to that in healthy individuals revealing a shift towards lipid oxidation during exercise. In hyperglycaemia fuel metabolism in these patients is dominated by carbohydrate oxidation. Intramyocellular glycogen was not spared in hyperglycaemia.

Population consequences of environmental sex reversal.

When sex determination in a species is predominantly genetic but environmentally reversible, exposure to (anthropogenic) changes in the environment can lead to shifts in a population's sex ratio. Such scenarios may be common in many fishes and amphibians, yet their ramifications remain largely unexplored. We used a simple model to study the (short-term) population consequences of environmental sex reversal (ESR). We examined the effects on sex ratios, sex chromosome frequencies, and population growth and persistence after exposure to environmental forces with feminizing or masculinizing tendencies. When environmental feminization was strong, X chromosomes were driven to extinction. Analogously, extinction of normally male-linked genetic factors (e.g., Y chromosomes) was caused by continuous environmental masculinization. Although moderate feminization was beneficial for population growth in the absence of large viability effects, our results suggest that the consequences of ESR are generally negative in terms of population size and the persistence of sex chromosomes. Extreme sex ratios resulting from high rates of ESR also reduced effective population sizes considerably. This may limit any evolutionary response to the deleterious effects of ESR. Our findings suggest that ESR changes population growth and sex ratios in some counter-intuitive ways and can change the predominant factor in sex determination from genetic to fully environmental, often within only a few tens of generations. Populations that lose genetic sex determination may quickly go extinct if the environmental forces that cause sex reversal cease.

How to Secure and Dispose of Unused Medicines, 2009

Prescription and over-the-counter drug abuse is an increasing concern in Iowa, and is the fastest growing form of youth substance abuse in America. Medicines can pose a danger to those who abuse them, and the improper disposal of pharmaceuticals can harm the environment.

Daily smoking as a marker of weight control practices among female adolescents

Purpose: There is evidence indicating that adolescent females smoke as a way to control weight. The aim of our research is to assess whether daily smoking is a marker for weight control practices among adolescent females. Methods: Data were drawn from the 2002 Swiss Multicenter Adolescent Survey on Health (SMASH02) data base, a survey including 7,548 [3,838 females] in-school adolescents aged 16-20 years in Switzerland. Among females self-reporting BMI (N _ 3,761), two groups were drawn: daily smokers (DS, N _ 1,273) included all those smoking at least 1 cigarette/day and never smokers (NS, N _ 1,888) included all those having never smoked. Former (N _ 177) and occasional (N _ 423) smokers were not included. Groups were compared on weight control practices (being on a diet, self-induced vomiting, use of doctor-prescribed or over-the-counter appetite suppressors) controlling for possible confounding variables (age, BMI, feeling fat, body image, use of other substances, depression, sport practice, academic track and perceived advanced puberty). Analyses were performed with STATA 9. Bivariate analyses are presented as point-prevalence and multivariate analysis (using logistic regression) are presented as adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and [95% confidence interval]. Results: In the bivariate analysis, DS females were significantly more likely (p _ 0.001) than NS to be on a diet (DS: 33.2%, NS: 22.2%), to self-induce vomiting (DS: 9.0%, NS: 3.3%), and to use doctor prescribed (DS: 2.3%, NS: 0.9%) or over-the-counter (DS: 3.2%, NS: 1.2%) appetite suppressors. In the multivariate analysis, DS females were more likely than NS to be on a diet (AOR: 1.40 [1.17/1.68]), to self-induce vomiting (AOR: 2.07 [1.45/2.97]), and to use doctor-prescribed appetite suppressors (AOR: 1.99 [1.00/ 3.96]). Conclusions: Weight control practices are more frequent among female daily smokers than among never smokers. This finding seems to confirm cigarette smoking as a way to control weight among adolescent females. Health professionals should inquire adolescent female smokers about weight control practices, and this association must be kept in mind when discussing tobacco cessation options with adolescent females. Sources of Support: The SMASH02 survey was funded by the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health and the participating cantons.

Estadísticas e indicadores de rendimiento de colecciones y servicios bibliotecarios de carácter electrónico: estudio de caso de las revistas electrónicas

Se analiza el uso de estadísticas e indicadores de rendimiento de productos y servicios electrónicos en los procesos de evaluación bibliotecaria. Se examinan los principales proyectos de definición de estadísticas e indicadores desarrollados durante los últimos años, prestando especial atención a tres de ellos: Counter, E-metrics e ISO, y se analizan las estadísticas que actualmente ofrecen cuatro grandes editores de revistas electrónicas (American Chemical Society, Emerald, Kluwer y Wiley) y un servicio (Scitation Usage Statistics) que aglutina datos de seis editores de revistas de física. Los resultados muestran un cierto grado de consenso en la determinación de un conjunto básico de estadísticas e indicadores a pesar de la diversidad de proyectos existentes y de la heterogeneidad de datos ofrecidos por los editores.

Hypertension is an independent predictor of mean platelet volume in patients with acute ischaemic stroke.

Introduction: Mean platelet volume (MPV) was shown to be significantly increased in patients with acute ischaemic stroke, especially in non-lacunar strokes. Moreover, some studies concluded that increased MPV is related to poor functional outcome after ischaemic stroke, although this association is still controversial. However, the determinants of MPV in patients with acute ischaemic stroke have never been investigated. Subjects and methods: We recorded the main demographic, clinical and laboratory data of consecutive patients with acute (admitted within 24 h after stroke onset) ischaemic stroke admitted in our Neurology Service between January 2003 and December 2008. MPV was generated at admission by the Sysmex XE-2100 automated cell counter (Sysmex Corporation, Kobe, Japan) from ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid blood samples stored at room temperature until measurement. The association of these parameters with MPV was investigated in univariate and multivariate analysis. Results: A total of 636 patients was included in our study. The median MPV was 10.4 ± 0.82 fL. In univariate analysis, glucose (β= 0.03, P= 0.05), serum creatinine (β= 0.002, P= 0.02), haemoglobin (β= 0.009, P < 0.001), platelet count (β=-0.002, P < 0.001) and history of arterial hypertension (β= 0.21, P= 0.005) were found to be significantly associated with MPV. In multivariate robust regression analysis, only hypertension and platelet count remained as independent determinants of MPV. Conclusions: In patients with acute ischaemic stroke, platelet count and history of hypertension are the only determinants of MPV.

Counselor motivational interviewing skills and young adult change talk articulation during brief motivational interventions.

The process of eliciting client language toward change (change talk [CT]) is implicated as a causal mechanism in motivational interviewing (MI) and brief motivational interventions (BMI). We investigated the articulation of counselor behaviors and CT during BMI with young men. We coded 149 sessions using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code and summarized these codes into three counselor categories (MI-consistent [MICO], MI-inconsistent [MIIN], other) and three client categories (CT, counter CT [CCT], follow/neutral [F/N]). We then computed immediate transition frequencies and odds ratios using sequential analysis software. CT was significantly more likely following MICO behaviors, whereas MIIN behaviors only led to CCT and F/N. This strongly supports the use of MI skills to elicit CT during BMI with young men, whose speech also predicted counselor behaviors (particularly CT to MICO and CCT to MIIN). Additional analyses showed that among MICO behaviors, reflective listening may be a particularly powerful technique to elicit CT.

Talking to kids about prescription drug abuse, 2010

As a parent you’re concerned about your children’s health and well-being. You teach them about crossing the street safely and about personal safety. You talk with them about the risks of using tobacco, alcohol and other illegal drugs. But did you know that one of the fastest growing threats to youth today is the abuse of prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) drugs? Did you know that nearly one in five teens (19 percent or 4.5 million) nationally report intentionally abusing prescription drugs to get high, and one in ten reports abusing cough medicine to get high.