Quantified real constraint solving using modal intervals with applications to control

Les restriccions reals quantificades (QRC) formen un formalisme matemàtic utilitzat per modelar un gran nombre de problemes físics dins els quals intervenen sistemes d'equacions no-lineals sobre variables reals, algunes de les quals podent ésser quantificades. Els QRCs apareixen en nombrosos contextos, com l'Enginyeria de Control o la Biologia. La resolució de QRCs és un domini de recerca molt actiu dins el qual es proposen dos enfocaments diferents: l'eliminació simbòlica de quantificadors i els mètodes aproximatius. Tot i això, la resolució de problemes de grans dimensions i del cas general, resten encara problemes oberts. Aquesta tesi proposa una nova metodologia aproximativa basada en l'Anàlisi Intervalar Modal, una teoria matemàtica que permet resoldre problemes en els quals intervenen quantificadors lògics sobre variables reals. Finalment, dues aplicacions a l'Enginyeria de Control són presentades. La primera fa referència al problema de detecció de fallades i la segona consisteix en un controlador per a un vaixell a vela.

Feature-point detection using distance transforms: Application to tracking tropical convective complexes

The identification, tracking, and statistical analysis of tropical convective complexes using satellite imagery is explored in the context of identifying feature points suitable for tracking. The feature points are determined based on the shape of complexes using the distance transform technique. This approach has been applied to the determination feature points for tropical convective complexes identified in a time series of global cloud imagery. The feature points are used to track the complexes, and from the tracks statistical diagnostic fields are computed. This approach allows the nature and distribution of organized deep convection in the Tropics to be explored.

Distribution and statistics of African mesoscale convective weather systems based on the ISCCP Meteosat imagery

This paper provides for the first time an objective short-term (8 yr) climatology of African convective weather systems based on satellite imagery. Eight years of infrared International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project-European Space Agency's Meteorological Satellite (ISCCP-Meteosat) satellite imagery has been analyzed using objective feature identification, tracking, and statistical techniques for the July, August, and September periods and the region of Africa and the adjacent Atlantic ocean. This allows various diagnostics to be computed and used to study the distribution of mesoscale and synoptic-scale convective weather systems from mesoscale cloud clusters and squall lines to tropical cyclones. An 8-yr seasonal climatology (1983-90) and the seasonal cycle of this convective activity are presented and discussed. Also discussed is the dependence of organized convection for this region, on the orography, convective, and potential instability and vertical wind shear using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data.

Relationships between lightning and properties of convective cloud clusters

Satellite observations of convective system properties and lightning flash rate are used to investigate the ability of potential lightning parameterizations to capture both the dominant land-ocean contrast in lightning occurrence and regional differences between Africa, the Amazon and the islands of the maritime continent. As found in previous studies, the radar storm height is tightly correlated with the lightning flash rate. A roughly second order power-law fit to the mean radar echo top height above the 0C isotherm is shown to capture both regional and land-ocean contrasts in lightning occurrence and flash rate using a single set of parameters. Recent developments should soon make it possible to implement a parameterization of this kind in global models. Parameterizations based on cloud top height, convective rain rate and convective rain fraction all require the use of separate fits over land and ocean and fail to capture observed differences between continental regions.

Deep Convective System Evolution over Africa and the Tropical Atlantic

In the tropical African and neighboring Atlantic region there is a strong contrast in the properties of deep convection between land and ocean. Here, satellite radar observations are used to produce a composite picture of the life cycle of convection in these two regions. Estimates of the broadband thermal flux from the geostationary Meteosat-8 satellite are used to identify and track organized convective systems over their life cycle. The evolution of the system size and vertical extent are used to define five life cycle stages (warm and cold developing, mature, cold and warm dissipating), providing the basis for the composite analysis of the system evolution. The tracked systems are matched to overpasses of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite, and a composite picture of the evolution of various radar and lightning characteristics is built up. The results suggest a fundamental difference in the convective life cycle between land and ocean. African storms evolve from convectively active systems with frequent lightning in their developing stages to more stratiform conditions as they dissipate. Over the Atlantic, the convective fraction remains essentially constant into the dissipating stages, and lightning occurrence peaks late in the life cycle. This behavior is consistent with differences in convective sustainability in land and ocean regions as proposed in previous studies. The area expansion rate during the developing stages of convection is used to provide an estimate of the intensity of convection. Reasonable correlations are found between this index and the convective system lifetime, size, and depth.

The Convective Storm Initiation Project

The Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) is an international project to understand precisely where, when, and how convective clouds form and develop into showers in the mainly maritime environment of southern England. A major aim of CSIP is to compare the results of the very high resolution Met Office weather forecasting model with detailed observations of the early stages of convective clouds and to use the newly gained understanding to improve the predictions of the model. A large array of ground-based instruments plus two instrumented aircraft, from the U.K. National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and the German Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe, were deployed in southern England, over an area centered on the meteorological radars at Chilbolton, during the summers of 2004 and 2005. In addition to a variety of ground-based remote-sensing instruments, numerous rawin-sondes were released at one- to two-hourly intervals from six closely spaced sites. The Met Office weather radar network and Meteosat satellite imagery were used to provide context for the observations made by the instruments deployed during CSIP. This article presents an overview of the CSIP field campaign and examples from CSIP of the types of convective initiation phenomena that are typical in the United Kingdom. It shows the way in which certain kinds of observational data are able to reveal these phenomena and gives an explanation of how the analyses of data from the field campaign will be used in the development of an improved very high resolution NWP model for operational use.

The impact of deformation strain on the formation of banded clouds in idealized modeling experiments

Experiments are performed using an idealized version of an operational forecast model to determine the impact on banded frontal clouds of the strength of deformational forcing, low-level baroclinicity, and model representation of convection. Line convection is initiated along the front, and slantwise bands extend from the top of the line-convection elements into the cold air. This banding is attributed primarily to M adjustment. The cross-frontal spreading of the cold pool generated by the line convection leads to further triggering of upright convection in the cold air that feeds into these slantwise bands. Secondary low-level bands form later in the simulations; these are attributed to the release of conditional symmetric instability. Enhanced deformation strain leads to earlier onset of convection and more coherent line convection. A stronger cold pool is generated, but its speed is reduced relative to that seen in experiments with weaker deformational strain, because of inhibition by the strain field. Enhanced low-level baroclinicity leads to the generation of more inertial instability by line convection (for a given capping height of convection), and consequently greater strength of the slantwise circulations formed by M adjustment. These conclusions are based on experiments without a convective-parametrization scheme. Experiments using the standard or a modified scheme for this model demonstrate known problems with the use of this scheme at the awkward 4 km grid length used in these simulations. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society