New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions1. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of ‘cumulative climate pollutants’ such as carbon dioxide versus ‘short-lived climate pollutants’ (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20–40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century7, 8, 9, 10, which may be necessary to limit warming to “well below 2 °C” (ref. 1). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP11, 12, 13. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

Comparison between cold water immersion therapy (CWIT) and light emitting diode therapy (LEDT) in short-term skeletal muscle recovery after high-intensity exercise in athletes-preliminary results

In the last years, phototherapy has becoming a promising tool to improve skeletal muscle recovery after exercise, however, it was not compared with other modalities commonly used with this aim. In the present study we compared the short-term effects of cold water immersion therapy (CWIT) and light emitting diode therapy (LEDT) with placebo LEDT on biochemical markers related to skeletal muscle recovery after high-intensity exercise. A randomized double-blind placebo-controlled crossover trial was performed with six male young futsal athletes. They were treated with CWIT (5A degrees C of temperature [SD +/- 1A degrees]), active LEDT (69 LEDs with wavelengths 660/850 nm, 10/30 mW of output power, 30 s of irradiation time per point, and 41.7 J of total energy irradiated per point, total of ten points irradiated) or an identical placebo LEDT 5 min after each of three Wingate cycle tests. Pre-exercise, post-exercise, and post-treatment measurements were taken of blood lactate levels, creatine kinase (CK) activity, and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. There were no significant differences in the work performed during the three Wingate tests (p > 0.05). All biochemical parameters increased from baseline values (p < 0.05) after the three exercise tests, but only active LEDT decreased blood lactate levels (p = 0.0065) and CK activity (p = 0.0044) significantly after treatment. There were no significant differences in CRP values after treatments. We concluded that treating the leg muscles with LEDT 5 min after the Wingate cycle test seemed to inhibit the expected post-exercise increase in blood lactate levels and CK activity. This suggests that LEDT has better potential than 5 min of CWIT for improving short-term post-exercise recovery.

Effect of Short-term High-Dose Creatine Supplementation on Measured GFR in a Young Man With a Single Kidney

It currently is unknown whether creatine supplementation is safe for people with or at risk of kidney disease. We report on the short-term effects of creatine supplementation on kidney function in a young man with a single kidney and mildly decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR). A 20-year-old man who had undergone unilateral nephrectomy and presented with mildly decreased GFR without kidney damage underwent a trial with 35 days of creatine supplementation (20 g/d for 5 days followed by 5 g/d for the next 30 days) and had his kidney function monitored. After the intervention, (51)Cr-EDTA clearance (pre, 81.6 mL/min/1.73 m(2); post, 82.0 mL/min/1.73 m(2)), proteinuria (protein excretion: pre, 130 mg/d; post, 120 mg/d), and electrolyte levels were unchanged. Albuminuria, serum urea level, and estimated creatinine clearance were decreased (pre, 4.6 mg/d; post, 2.9 mg/d; pre, 37 mg/d; post, 28 mg/dL; and pre, 88 mL/min/1.73 m(2); post, 71 mL/min/1.73 m(2), respectively), whereas serum creatinine level was slightly increased (pre, 1.03 mg/dL; post, 1.27 mg/dL), falsely suggesting kidney function impairment. This prospective report suggests that short-term creatine supplementation may not affect kidney function in an individual with a single kidney, mild decreased GFR, and ingesting a high-protein diet (ie, 2.8 g/kg/d). This finding has great relevance considering that creatine-induced kidney disease has been a growing concern, even for healthy people. Am J Kidney Dis 55: e7-e9. (C) 2010 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.

Quenching of excited states of red-pigment zinc protoporphyrin IX by hemin and natural reductors in dry-cured hams

Zinc protoporphyrin IX (ZnPP), the major red pigment in hams dry-cured without nitrates/nitrites, is an efficient photosensitizer, which upon absorption of visible light forms short-lived excited singlet state ((1)ZnPP*) and by intersystem crossing yields the very reactive triplet-excited state ((3)ZnPP*). Using nano-second laser flash photolysis and transient absorption spectroscopy NADH, ascorbic acid, hemin and dehydroascorbic acid were each found to be efficient quenchers of (3)ZnPP*. The deactivation followed, in homogeneous dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) or DMSO:water (1:1) solutions, second-order kinetics. The rate constant for ascorbic acid and NADH for reductive quenching of (3)ZnPP* was at 25 A degrees C found to be 7.5 +/- A 0.1 x 10(4) L mol(-1) s(-1) and 6.3 +/- A 0.1 x 10(5) L mol(-1) s(-1), respectively. The polyphenols catechin and quercetin had no effect on (3)ZnPP*. The quenching rate constant for oxidative deactivation of (3)ZnPP* by dehydroascorbic acid and hemin was at 25 A degrees C: 1.6 +/- A 0.1 x 10(5) L mol(-1) s(-1) and 1.47 +/- A 0.1 x 10(9) L mol(-1) s(-1), respectively. Oxidized glutathione did not act as an oxidative quencher for (3)ZnPP*. After photoexcitation of ZnPP to (1)ZnPP*, fluorescence was only found to be quenched by the presence of hemin in a diffusion-controlled reaction. The efficient deactivation of (3)ZnPP* and (1)ZnPP* by the metalloporphyrin (hemin) naturally present in meat may accordingly inherently protect meat proteins and lipids against ZnPP photosensitized oxidation.

Trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations: Evidence from Sweden

An overview of the theoretical literature for the last two decades suggests that there is no clear-cut relationship one can pin down between exchange rate volatility and trade flows. Analytical results are based on specific assumptions and only hold in certain cases. Especially, the impact of exchange rate volatility on export and import activity investigated separately leads also to dissimilar conclusions among countries studied. The general presumption is that an increase in exchange rate volatility will have an adverse effect on trade flows and consequently, the overall heath of the world economy. However, neither theoretical models nor empirical studies provide us with a definitive answer, leaving obtained results highly ambiguous and inconsistent (Baum and Caglayan, 2006). We purposed to empirically investigate trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations in Sweden from the perspective of export and import in this research. The data comprises period from January 1993 to December 2006, where export and import volumes are considered from the point of their determinants, including exchange rate volatility, which has been measured through EGARCH model. The results for the case of Sweden show that short run dynamics of volatility negatively associated with both export and import, whereas considered from the case of previous period volatility it exhibits positive relationship. These results are consistent with the most findings of prior studies, where the relationship remained ambiguous.

Education and Earnings for Poverty Reduction : Short-Term Evidence of Pro-Poor Growth from the Mexican Oportunidades Program

Education, as an indispensable component of human capital, has been acknowledged to play a critical role in economic growth, which is theoretically elaborated by human capital theory and empirically confirmed by evidence from different parts of the world. The educational impact on growth is especially valuable and meaningful when it is for the sake of poverty reduction and pro-poorness of growth. The paper re-explores the precious link between human capital development and poverty reduction by investigating the causal effect of education accumulation on earnings enhancement for anti-poverty and pro-poor growth. The analysis takes the evidence from a well-known conditional cash transfer (CCT) program — Oportunidades in Mexico. Aiming at alleviating poverty and promoting a better future by investing in human capital for children and youth in poverty, this CCT program has been recognized producing significant outcomes. The study investigates a short-term impact of education on earnings of the economically disadvantaged youth, taking the data of both the program’s treated and untreated youth from urban areas in Mexico from 2002 to 2004. Two econometric techniques, i.e. difference-in-differences and difference-in-differences propensity score matching approach are applied for estimation. The empirical analysis first identifies that youth who under the program’s schooling intervention possess an advantage in educational attainment over their non-intervention peers; with this identification of education discrepancy as a prerequisite, further results then present that earnings of the education advantaged youth increase at a higher rate about 20 percent than earnings of their education disadvantaged peers over the two years. This result indicates a confirmation that education accumulation for the economically disadvantaged young has a positive impact on their earnings enhancement and thus inferring a contribution to poverty reduction and pro-poorness of growth.

Effect of facilitation of local maternal-and-newborn stakeholder groups on neonatal mortality : cluster-randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Facilitation of local women's groups may reportedly reduce neonatal mortality. It is not known whether facilitation of groups composed of local health care staff and politicians can improve perinatal outcomes. We hypothesised that facilitation of local stakeholder groups would reduce neonatal mortality (primary outcome) and improve maternal, delivery, and newborn care indicators (secondary outcomes) in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In a cluster-randomized design 44 communes were allocated to intervention and 46 to control. Laywomen facilitated monthly meetings during 3 years in groups composed of health care staff and key persons in the communes. A problem-solving approach was employed. Births and neonatal deaths were monitored, and interviews were performed in households of neonatal deaths and of randomly selected surviving infants. A latent period before effect is expected in this type of intervention, but this timeframe was not pre-specified. Neonatal mortality rate (NMR) from July 2008 to June 2011 was 16.5/1,000 (195 deaths per 11,818 live births) in the intervention communes and 18.4/1,000 (194 per 10,559 live births) in control communes (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.96 [95% CI 0.73-1.25]). There was a significant downward time trend of NMR in intervention communes (p = 0.003) but not in control communes (p = 0.184). No significant difference in NMR was observed during the first two years (July 2008 to June 2010) while the third year (July 2010 to June 2011) had significantly lower NMR in intervention arm: adjusted OR 0.51 (95% CI 0.30-0.89). Women in intervention communes more frequently attended antenatal care (adjusted OR 2.27 [95% CI 1.07-4.8]). CONCLUSIONS: A randomized facilitation intervention with local stakeholder groups composed of primary care staff and local politicians working for three years with a perinatal problem-solving approach resulted in increased attendance to antenatal care and reduced neonatal mortality after a latent period. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN44599712. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Self-assessment of the outcome of early medical abortion versus clinic follow-up in India : a randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial

Background: The need for multiple clinical visits remains a barrier to women accessing safe legal medical abortion services. Alternatives to routine clinic follow-up visits have not been assessed in rural low-resource settings. We compared the effectiveness of standard clinic follow-up versus home assessment of outcome of medical abortion in a low-resource setting. Methods: This randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial was done in six health centres (three rural, three urban) in Rajasthan, India. Women seeking early medical abortion up to 9 weeks of gestation were randomly assigned (1:1) to either routine clinic follow-up or self-assessment at home. Randomisation was done with a computer-generated randomisation sequence, with a block size of six. The study was not blinded. Women in the home-assessment group were advised to use a pictorial instruction sheet and take a low-sensitivity urine pregnancy test at home, 10-14 days after intake of mifepristone, and were contacted by a home visit or telephone call to record the outcome of the abortion. The primary (non-inferiority) outcome was complete abortion without continuing pregnancy or need for surgical evacuation or additional mifepristone and misoprostol. The non-inferiority margin for the risk difference was 5%. All participants with a reported primary outcome and who followed the clinical protocol were included in the analysis. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01827995. Findings: Between April 23, 2013, and May 15, 2014, 731 women were recruited and assigned to clinic follow-up (n=366) or home assessment (n=365), of whom 700 were analysed for the main outcomes (n=336 and n=364, respectively). Complete abortion without continuing pregnancy, surgical intervention, or additional mifepristone and misoprostol was reported in 313 (93%) of 336 women in the clinic follow-up group and 347 (95%) of 364 women in the home-assessment group (difference -2.2%, 95% CI -5.9 to 1.6). One case of haemorrhage occurred in each group (rate of adverse events 0.3% in each group); no other adverse events were noted. Interpretation Home assessment of medical abortion outcome with a low-sensitivity urine pregnancy test is non-inferior to clinic follow-up, and could be introduced instead of a clinic follow-up visit in a low-resource setting.

Exchange rate dynamics in Brazil

The paper aims to investigate on empirical and theoretical grounds the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics under floating exchange rates. The empirical analysis examines the short and long term behavior of the exchange rate, interest rate (domestic and foreign) and country risk using econometric techniques such as variance decomposition, Granger causality, cointegration tests, error correction models, and a GARCH model to estimate the exchange rate volatility. The empirical findings suggest that one can argue in favor of a certain degree of endogeneity of the exchange rate and that flexible rates have not been able to insulate the Brazilian economy in the same patterns predicted by literature due to its own specificities (managed floating with the use of international reserves and domestic interest rates set according to inflation target) and to externally determined variables such as the country risk. Another important outcome is the lack of a closer association of domestic and foreign interest rates since the new exchange regime has been adopted. That is, from January 1999 to May 2004, the US monetary policy has no significant impact on the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics, which has been essentially endogenous primarily when we consider the fiscal dominance expressed by the probability of default.

In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Empresas de controle familiar e informed trading: evidências de short selling no mercado brasileiro?

O objetivo desse trabalho é testar se no mercado brasileiro, empresas familiares são mais suscetíveis a insider trading.Testes feitos no mercado americano evidenciaram efeito do controle familiar no conteúdo informacional embutido em montagem de posições vendidas de companhias abertas. Lá, foram encontrados níveis acima do normal de posições short em companhias de controle familiar principalmente em momentos que antecipavam resultados negativos que iriam ser publicados. Não encontramos evidências claras de que o fato da companhia ter controle familiar poderia levá-la a apresentar ou não insider trading, já que por limitação do modelo não é possível comparar o nível de anormal short para empresas de controle familiar e outras pois essa variável é excluída do modelo. Entretanto, observamos nos modelos em painel fixo com interações que existe diferença do efeito de algumas variáveis de controle para empresas de controle familiar ou não sobre outras variáveis de controle o que poderia mostrar que alguma influência o controle familiar poderia ter sobre o insider trading. Testamos também se empresas de controle estatal apresentavam maior volume médio diário anormal de posições vendidas em momentos que antecediam surpresas de resultado, e também não encontramos evidências claras e diretas que isso acontecia.

Population structure, habitat use and conservation of short-finned pilot whales Globicephala macrorhynchus in the Archipelago of Madeira

This thesis provides information on the grouping structure, survival, abundance, dive characteristics and habitat preferences of short-finned pilot whales occurring in the oceanic archipelago of Madeira (Portugal, NE Atlantic), based on data collected between 2001-2011, and contributes for its conservation. Photo-identification methods and genetic analyses demonstrated that there is a large degree of variability in site fidelity, including resident, regular visitor and transient whales, and that they may not be genetically isolated. It is proposed that the pilot whales encountered in Madeira belong to a single population encompassing several clans, possibly three clans of island-associated (i.e. resident and regular visitor) whales and others of transients, each containing two to three matrilineal pods. Mark-recapture methods estimated that the island-associated community is composed of less than 150 individuals and that their survival rate is within the range of other long-lived cetacean species, and that around 300 whales of different residency patterns uses the southern area of the island of Madeira from mid-summer to mid-autumn. No significant trend was observed between years. Time-depth recorders deployed in adult whales during daytime revealed that they spend over ¾ of their time at the surface, that they have a low diving rate, and that transient whales also forage during their passage. The analyses of visual data collected from nautical and aerial line-transect surveys indicate a core/preferred habitat area in the south-east of the island of Madeira. That area is used for resting, socializing, foraging, breeding, calving and birthing. Thus, that area should be considered as an important habitat for this species, at least seasonally (during autumn) when the species is more abundant, and included in conservation plans. No direct threat needing urgent measures was identified, although the impact of some activities like whale-watching or marine traffic should be assessed.

Short-term temporal changes of soil carbon losses after tillage described by a first-order decay model

Tillage stimulates soil carbon (C) losses by increasing aeration, changing temperature and moisture conditions, and thus favoring microbial decomposition. In addition, soil aggregate disruption by tillage exposes once protected organic matter to decomposition. We propose a model to explain carbon dioxide (CO2) emission after tillage as a function of the no-till emission plus a correction due to the tillage disturbance. The model assumes that C in the readily decomposable organic matter follows a first-order reaction kinetics equation as: dC(sail)(t)/dt = -kC(soil)(t) and that soil C-CO2 emission is proportional to the C decay rate in soil, where C-soil(t) is the available labile soil C (g m(-2)) at any time (t). Emissions are modeled in terms soil C available to decomposition in the tilled and non-tilled plots, and a relationship is derived between no-till (F-NT) and tilled (F-Gamma) fluxes, which is: F-T = a1F(NT)e(-a2t), where t is time after tillage. Predicted and observed fluxes showed good agreement based on determination coefficient (R-2), index of agreement and model efficiency, with R-2 as high as 0.97. The two parameters included in the model are related to the difference between the decay constant (k factor) of tilled and no-till plots (a(2)) and also to the amount of labile carbon added to the readily decomposable soil organic matter due to tillage (a,). These two parameters were estimated in the model ranging from 1.27 and 2.60 (a(1)) and - 1.52 x 10(-2) and 2.2 x 10(-2) day(-1) (a(2)). The advantage is that temporal variability of tillage-induced emissions can be described by only one analytical function that includes the no-till emission plus an exponential term modulated by tillage and environmentally dependent parameters. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Short-term temporal changes of bare soil CO2 fluxes after tillage described by first-order decay models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Postharvest Storage of 'Ponkan', 'Satsuma Okitusu' and 'Fremont' Tangerines and Their Minimally Processed Products Using Refrigeration and Controlled Atmosphere

This study aimed to evaluate the postharvest conservation of tangerines 'Fremont', 'Satsuma Okitsu' and 'Ponkan' when stored at different conditions, as well as the quality of the minimally processed product. Fruit were harvested when a sugar: acid ratio of 10.0 to 12.0 for 'S. Okitsu' and 'Fremont' and 16.0 to 19.0 for 'Ponkan' was reached, selected for uniformity of color, size, and absence of injuries. Whole fruits were stored at 3 degrees C, 85% RH and 7 degrees C, 95% RH, and after each storage period, fruits were brought to ambient conditions (22 degrees C, 65% RH) for 3 days before evaluation. The minimally processed products (peeled) were packed in polystyrene trays (22.4x14.8x3.7 cm) coated with polyvinyl chloride (PVC) stretchable, with 0.014 mm thickness, and in lidded packages (500 ml) of transparent polyethylene terephthalate. Fruit were analyzed for appearance, weight loss, respiratory rate, package atmosphere, rind and pulp color, soluble solids, titratable acidity and ascorbic acid content. Shelf life of tangerine 'Fremont' was limited to 42 days based on freshness. Its minimally processed product had a 9 day shelf-life for products packaged in PVC film. The mandarins 'S. Okitsu' had 35 days shelf-life at 7 degrees C, which was reduced to 28 days at 3 degrees C. Its fresh-cut product had a shelf-life of 15 days, stored in PVC or PET. 'Ponkan' fruit stored at 3 degrees C had a shelf life of 35 days, which was reduced to 28 days at 7 degrees C. When minimally processed, its shelf-life lasted for 15 days, whether packaged in PVC or PET. The 'Ponkan' had a shelf-life of 35 days at 3 degrees C and 28 days at 7 degrees C, also limited by loss of freshness. When minimally processed and stored in PVC or PET, its shelf life reached 15 days.