Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristicsin a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When thegoal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style andnot to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors islarger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author.For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for exampleMosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) orLebart, Salem and Berry (1998).Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be“the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writterslike Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translatedseveral times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal(1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465,but it was not printed until 1490.There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition,where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while atthe end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death ofMartorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990),Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer(1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990).Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and thereforediscriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample textsencompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that mightindicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba andGinebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383.Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the mostfrequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the featuresselected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore tothree sequences of multinomial observations.Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the followingsections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the methodin section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma modelsonto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, theone in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of thecorrespondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the averageword length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify thefeatures that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavilyon the use of generalized linear models

The prevalence of schistosomiasis in school-aged children as an appropriate indicator of its prevalence in the community

School-aged children (6-15 years) from the endemic area of Pernambuco were evaluated both as a target group for and an indicator of schistosomiasis control in the community. Parasitological data were drawn from baseline stool surveys of whole populations that were obtained to diagnose Schistosoma mansoni infection. Nineteen representative localities were selected for assessing the prevalence of schistosomiasis among individuals in the following age groups: 0-5, 6-15, 16-25, 26-40 and 41-80 years. For each locality, the prevalence in each age group was compared to that of the overall population using contingency table analysis. To select a reference group, the operational difficulties of conducting residential surveys were considered. School-aged children may be considered to be the group of choice as the reference group for the overall population for the following reasons: (i) the prevalence of schistosomiasis in this age group had the highest correlation with the prevalence in the overall population (r = 0.967), (ii) this age group is particularly vulnerable to infection and plays an important role in parasite transmission and (iii) school-aged children are the main target of the World Health Organization in terms of helminth control. The Schistosomiasis Control Program should consider school-aged children both as a reference group for assessing the need for intervention at the community level and as a target group for integrated health care actions of the Unified Health System that are focused on high-risk groups.

Compositional analysis of bivariate discrete probabilities

A joint distribution of two discrete random variables with finite support can be displayed as a two way table of probabilities adding to one. Assume that this table hasn rows and m columns and all probabilities are non-null. This kind of table can beseen as an element in the simplex of n · m parts. In this context, the marginals areidentified as compositional amalgams, conditionals (rows or columns) as subcompositions. Also, simplicial perturbation appears as Bayes theorem. However, the Euclideanelements of the Aitchison geometry of the simplex can also be translated into the tableof probabilities: subspaces, orthogonal projections, distances.Two important questions are addressed: a) given a table of probabilities, which isthe nearest independent table to the initial one? b) which is the largest orthogonalprojection of a row onto a column? or, equivalently, which is the information in arow explained by a column, thus explaining the interaction? To answer these questionsthree orthogonal decompositions are presented: (1) by columns and a row-wise geometric marginal, (2) by rows and a columnwise geometric marginal, (3) by independenttwo-way tables and fully dependent tables representing row-column interaction. Animportant result is that the nearest independent table is the product of the two (rowand column)-wise geometric marginal tables. A corollary is that, in an independenttable, the geometric marginals conform with the traditional (arithmetic) marginals.These decompositions can be compared with standard log-linear models.Key words: balance, compositional data, simplex, Aitchison geometry, composition,orthonormal basis, arithmetic and geometric marginals, amalgam, dependence measure,contingency table

The role of human T cell lymphotrophic virus type 1, hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus coinfections in leprosy

Leprosy spectrum and outcome is associated with the host immune response against Mycobacterium leprae. The role of coinfections in leprosy patients may be related to a depression of cellular immunity or amplification of inflammatory responses. Leprosy remains endemic in several regions where human T cell lymphotrophic virus type 1 (HTLV-1), hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) are also endemic. We have evaluated the evidence for the possible role of these viruses in the clinical manifestations and outcomes of leprosy. HTLV-1, HBV and HCV are associated with leprosy in some regions and institutionalization is an important risk factor for these viral coinfections. Some studies show a higher prevalence of viral coinfection in lepromatous cases. Although HBV and HCV coinfection were associated with reversal reaction in one study, there is a lack of information about the consequences of viral coinfections in leprosy. It is not known whether clinical outcomes associated with leprosy, such as development of reactions or relapses could be attributed to a specific viral coinfection. Furthermore, whether the leprosy subtype may influence the progression of the viral coinfection is unknown. All of these important and intriguing questions await prospective studies to definitively establish the actual relationship between these entities.

Genetics of leprosy reactions: an overview

Type-1 (T1R) and Type-2 (T2R) leprosy reactions (LR), which affect up to 50% of leprosy patients, are aggressive inflammatory episodes of sudden onset and highly variable incidence across populations. LR are often diagnosed concurrently with leprosy, but more frequently occur several months after treatment onset. It is not uncommon for leprosy patients to develop recurring reactional episodes; however, they rarely undergo both types of LR. Today, LR are the main cause of permanent disabilities associated with leprosy and represent a major challenge in the clinical management of leprosy patients. Although progress has been made in understanding the immunopathology of LR, the factors that cause a leprosy patient to suffer from LR are largely unknown. Given the impact that ethnic background has on the risk of developing LR, host genetic factors have long been suspected of contributing to LR. Indeed, polymorphisms in seven genes [Toll-like receptors (TLR)1, TLR2, nucleotide-binding oligomerisation domain containing 2, vitamin D receptor, natural resistance-associated macrophage protein 1, C4B and interleukin-6] have been found to be associated with one or more LR outcomes. The identification of host genetic markers with predictive value for LR would have a major impact on nerve damage control in leprosy. In this review, we present the recent advances achieved through genetic studies of LR.

Examining ERBB2 as a candidate gene for susceptibility to leprosy (Hansen’s disease) in Brazil

Leprosy remains prevalent in Brazil. ErbB2 is a receptor for leprosy bacilli entering Schwann cells, which mediates Mycobacterium leprae-induced demyelination and the ERBB2 gene lies within a leprosy susceptibility locus on chromosome 17q11-q21. To determine whether polymorphisms at the ERBB2 locus contribute to this linkage peak, three haplotype tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tag-SNPs) (rs2517956, rs2952156, rs1058808) were genotyped in 72 families (208 cases; 372 individuals) from the state of Pará (PA). All three tag-SNPs were associated with leprosy per se [best SNP rs2517959 odds ratio (OR) = 2.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37-3.59; p = 0.001]. Lepromatous (LL) (OR = 3.25; 95% CI 1.37-7.70; p = 0.007) and tuberculoid (TT) (OR = 1.79; 95% CI 1.04-3.05; p = 0.034) leprosy both contributed to the association, which is consistent with the previous linkage to chromosome 17q11-q21 in the population from PA and supports the functional role of ErbB2 in disease pathogenesis. To attempt to replicate these findings, six SNPs (rs2517955, rs2517956, rs1810132, rs2952156, rs1801200, rs1058808) were genotyped in a population-based sample of 570 leprosy cases and 370 controls from the state of Rio Grande do Norte (RN) and the results were analysed using logistic regression analysis. However, none of the associations were replicated in the RN sample, whether analysed for leprosy per se, LL leprosy, TT leprosy, erythema nodosum leprosum or reversal reaction conditions. The role of polymorphisms at ERBB2 in controlling susceptibility to leprosy in Brazil therefore remains unclear.

Epithelial Na+ channel mutants causing Liddle's syndrome retain ability to respond to aldosterone and vasopressin.

Liddle's syndrome is a monogenic form of hypertension caused by mutations in the PY motif of the COOH terminus of beta- and gamma-epithelial Na+ channel (ENaC) subunits. These mutations lead to retention of active channels at the cell surface. Because of the critical role of this PY motif in the stability of ENaCs at the cell surface, we have investigated its contribution to the ENaC response to aldosterone and vasopressin. Mutants of the PY motif in beta- and gamma-ENaC subunits (beta-Y618A, beta-P616L, beta-R564stop, and gamma-K570stop) were stably expressed by retroviral gene transfer in a renal cortical collecting duct cell line (mpkCCDcl4), and transepithelial Na+ transport was assessed by measurements of the benzamil-sensitive short-circuit current (Isc). Cells that express ENaC mutants of the PY motif showed a five- to sixfold higher basal Isc compared with control cells and responded to stimulation by aldosterone (10(-6) M) or vasopressin (10(-9) M) with a further increase in Isc. The rates of the initial increases in Isc after aldosterone or vasopressin stimulation were comparable in cells transduced with wild-type and mutant ENaCs, but reversal of the effects of aldosterone and vasopressin was slower in cells that expressed the ENaC mutants. The conserved sensitivity of ENaC mutants to stimulation by aldosterone and vasopressin together with the prolonged activity at the cell surface likely contribute to the increased Na+ absorption in the distal nephron of patients with Liddle's syndrome.

Study and implementation of some quantitative trading models

Quantitative or algorithmic trading is the automatization of investments decisions obeying a fixed or dynamic sets of rules to determine trading orders. It has increasingly made its way up to 70% of the trading volume of one of the biggest financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). However, there is not a signi cant amount of academic literature devoted to it due to the private nature of investment banks and hedge funds. This projects aims to review the literature and discuss the models available in a subject that publications are scarce and infrequently. We review the basic and fundamental mathematical concepts needed for modeling financial markets such as: stochastic processes, stochastic integration and basic models for prices and spreads dynamics necessary for building quantitative strategies. We also contrast these models with real market data with minutely sampling frequency from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Quantitative strategies try to exploit two types of behavior: trend following or mean reversion. The former is grouped in the so-called technical models and the later in the so-called pairs trading. Technical models have been discarded by financial theoreticians but we show that they can be properly cast into a well defined scientific predictor if the signal generated by them pass the test of being a Markov time. That is, we can tell if the signal has occurred or not by examining the information up to the current time; or more technically, if the event is F_t-measurable. On the other hand the concept of pairs trading or market neutral strategy is fairly simple. However it can be cast in a variety of mathematical models ranging from a method based on a simple euclidean distance, in a co-integration framework or involving stochastic differential equations such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean reversal ODE and its variations. A model for forecasting any economic or financial magnitude could be properly defined with scientific rigor but it could also lack of any economical value and be considered useless from a practical point of view. This is why this project could not be complete without a backtesting of the mentioned strategies. Conducting a useful and realistic backtesting is by no means a trivial exercise since the \laws" that govern financial markets are constantly evolving in time. This is the reason because we make emphasis in the calibration process of the strategies' parameters to adapt the given market conditions. We find out that the parameters from technical models are more volatile than their counterpart form market neutral strategies and calibration must be done in a high-frequency sampling manner to constantly track the currently market situation. As a whole, the goal of this project is to provide an overview of a quantitative approach to investment reviewing basic strategies and illustrating them by means of a back-testing with real financial market data. The sources of the data used in this project are Bloomberg for intraday time series and Yahoo! for daily prices. All numeric computations and graphics used and shown in this project were implemented in MATLAB^R scratch from scratch as a part of this thesis. No other mathematical or statistical software was used.

Circadian expression of H,K-ATPase type 2 contributes to the stability of plasma K⁺ levels.

Maintenance by the kidney of stable plasma K(+) values is crucial, as plasma K(+) controls muscle and nerve activity. Since renal K(+) excretion is regulated by the circadian clock, we aimed to identify the ion transporters involved in this process. In control mice, the renal mRNA expression of H,K-ATPase type 2 (HKA2) is 25% higher during rest compared to the activity period. Conversely, under dietary K(+) restriction, HKA2 expression is ∼40% higher during the activity period. This reversal suggests that HKA2 contributes to the circadian regulation of K(+) homeostasis. Compared to their wild-type (WT) littermates, HKA2-null mice fed a normal diet have 2-fold higher K(+) renal excretion during rest. Under K(+) restriction, their urinary K(+) loss is 40% higher during the activity period. This inability to excrete K(+) "on time" is reflected in plasma K(+) values, which vary by 12% between activity and rest periods in HKA2-null mice but remain stable in WT mice. Analysis of the circadian expression of HKA2 regulators suggests that Nrf2, but not progesterone, contributes to its rhythmicity. Therefore, HKA2 acts to maintain the circadian rhythm of urinary K(+) excretion and preserve stable plasma K(+) values throughout the day.

The use of rapid dengue diagnostic tests in a routine clinical setting in a dengue-endemic area of Colombia

There is insufficient evidence of the usefulness of dengue diagnostic tests under routine conditions. We sought to analyse how physicians are using dengue diagnostics to inform research and development. Subjects attending 14 health institutions in an endemic area of Colombia with either a clinical diagnosis of dengue or for whom a dengue test was ordered were included in the study. Patterns of test-use are described herein. Factors associated with the ordering of dengue diagnostic tests were identified using contingency tables, nonparametric tests and logistic regression. A total of 778 subjects were diagnosed with dengue by the treating physician, of whom 386 (49.5%) were tested for dengue. Another 491 dengue tests were ordered in subjects whose primary diagnosis was not dengue. Severe dengue classification [odds ratio (OR) 2.2; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-4.5], emergency consultation (OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.4-2.5) and month of the year (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.7-5.5) were independently associated with ordering of dengue tests. Dengue tests were used both to rule in and rule out diagnosis. The latter use is not justified by the sensitivity of current rapid dengue diagnostic tests. Ordering of dengue tests appear to depend on a combination of factors, including physician and institutional preferences, as well as other patient and epidemiological factors.

The neurobiological basis of prefrontal cortex impairment in the phencyclidine model of schizophrenia : convergent reduction of synaptic glutamate release, energy metabolism and cognitive performance

RÉSUMÉ : Le traitement répété à la phencyclidine (PCP), un bloqueur du récepteur NMDA (NMDAR), reproduit chez les rongeurs une partie de la symptomatologie typique de la schizophrénie. Le blocage prolongé du NMDAR par la PCP mime une hypofunction du NMDAR, une des principales altérations supposées exister dans les cerveaux des patients schizophréniques. Le but de notre étude était d'examiner les conséquences neurochimiques, métaboliques et fonctionnelles du traitement répété à la phencyclidine in vivo, au niveau du cortex préfrontal (cpf), une région cérébrale qui joue un rôle dans les déficits cognitifs observés chez les patients schizophréniques. Pour répondre à cette question, les rats ou les souris ont reçu chaque jour une injection soit de PCP (5 mg/kg), soit de solution saline, pendant 7 ou 14 jours. Les animaux ont ensuite été sacrifiés au moins 24 heures après le dernier traitement. Des tranches aiguës du cpf ont été préparées rapidement, puis stimulées avec une concentration élevée de KCI, de manière à induire une libération de glutamate à partir des terminaisons synaptiques excitatrices. Les résultats montrent que les tranches du cpf des animaux traités à la PCP ont libéré une quantité de glutamate significativement inférieure par rapport à celles des animaux contrôle. Ce déficit de libération a persisté 72 heures après la fin du traitement, tandis qu'il n'était pas observé dans le cortex visuel primaire, une autre région corticale. En outre, le traitement avec des antipsychotiques, l'halopéridol ou l'olanzapine, a supprimé le déficit induit par la PCP. Le même déficit de libération a été remarqué sur des synaptosomes obtenus à partir du cpf des animaux traités à la phenryclidine. Cette observation indique que la PCP induit une modification plastique adaptative du mécanisme qui contrôle la libération du glutamate dans les terminaisons synaptiques. Nous avons découvert que cette modification implique la sous-régulation d'un NMDAR présynaptique, qui serait doué d'un rôle d'autorécepteur stimulateur de la libération du glutamate. Grâce à des tests comportementaux conduits en parallèle et réalisés pour évaluer la fonctionnalité du cpf, nous avons observé chez les souris traitées à la PCP une flexibilité comportementale réduite lors d'un test de discrimination de stimuli visuels/tactiles. Le déficit cognitif était encore présent 4 jours après la dernière administration de PCP. La technique de l'autoradiographie quantitative du [14C]2-deoxyglucose a permis d'associer ce déficit à une réduction de l'activité métabolique cérébrale pendant le déroulement du test, particulièrement au niveau du cpf. Dans l'ensemble, nos résultats suggèrent que le blocage prolongé du NMDAR lors de l'administration répétée de PCP produit un déficit de libération du glutamate au niveau des terminaisons synaptiques excitatrices du cpf. Un tel déficit pourrait être provoqué par la sousrégulation d'un NMDAR présynaptique, qui aurait une fonction de stimulateur de libération; la transmission excitatrice du cpf s'en trouverait dans ce cas réduite. Ce résultat est en ligne avec l'activité métabolique et fonctionnelle réduite du cpf et l'observation de déficits cognitifs induits lors de l'administration de la PCP. ABSTRACT : Sub-chronic treatment with phencyclidine (PCP), an NMDA receptor (NMDAR) channel blocker, reproduces in rodents part of the symptomatology associated to schizophrenia in humans. Prolonged pharmacological blockade of NMDAR with PCP mimics NMDAR hypofunction, one of the main alterations thought to take place in the brains of schizophrenics. Our study was aimed at investigating the neurochemical, metabolic and behavioral consequences of repeated PCP administration in vivo, focusing on the functioning of the prefrontal cortex (pfc), a brain region highly relevant for the cognitive deficits observed in schizophrenic patients. Rats or mice received a daily administration of either PCP (5 mg/kg) or saline for 7 or 14 days. At least 24 hours after the last treatment the animals were sacrificed. Acute slices of the pfc were quickly prepared and challenged with high KCl to induce synaptic glutamate release. Pfc slices from PCP-treated animals released significantly less glutamate than slices from salinetreated animals. The deficit persisted 72 hours after the end of the treatment, while it was not observed in another cortical region: the primary visual cortex. Interestingly, treatment with antipsychotic drugs, either haloperidol or olanzapine, reverted the glutamate release defect induced by PCP treatment. The same release defect was observed in synaptosomes prepared from the pfc of PCP-treated animals, indicating that PCP induces a plastic adaptive change in the mechanism controlling glutamate release in the glutamatergic terminals. We discovered that such change most likely involves the down-regulation of a newly identified, pre-synaptic NMDAR with stimulatory auto-receptor function on glutamate release. In parallel sets of behavioral experiments challenging pfc function, mice sub-chronically treated with PCP displayed reduced behavioral flexibility (reversal learning) in a visual/tactile-cued discrimination task. The cognitive deficit was still evident 4 days after the last PCP administration and was associated to reduced brain metabolic activity during the performance of the behavioral task, notably in the pfc, as determined by [14C]2-deoxyglucose quantitative autoradiography. Clverall, our findings suggest that prolonged NMDAR blockade by repeated PCP administration results in a defect of glutamate release from excitatory afferents in the pfc, possibly ascribed to down-regulation of apre-synaptic stimulatory NMDAR. Deficient excitatory neurotransmission in the pfc is consistent with the reduced metabolic and functional activation of this area and the observed PCP-induced cognitive deficits.

Genetic and environmental effects on early life-history traits in salmonids

Les changements environnementaux, tels la température ou les maladies infectieuses, peuvent influencer l'évolution en induisant de la sélection, mais ceci à la seule condition qu'il y ait assez de diversité génétique pour les traits en question ou pour l'expression plastique de ces traits. Au cours cette thèse, nous avons étudié l'effet de potentielles pressions environnementales sur différents phénotypes de trois représentants des sous familles des salmonidés: l'ombre commun (Thymallus thymallus; Thymallinae), la truite de rivière {Salmo trutta; Salmoninae) et le corégone Coregonus palaea (Coregoninae). Les salmonidés se prêtent particulièrement bien à ce type d'expériences car étant hautement sensibles aux conditions environnementales, ils montrent une large variabilité dans leurs traits morphologiques, comportementaux ainsi que d'histoire de vie, tout en bénéficiant d'un large intérêt général. Nous avons testé si le sexe de l'ombre commun pouvait être modifié par la température, ce qui pourrait ainsi expliquer un changement abrupte de sex ratio observé dans l'une des plus grandes populations de Suisse. Nous n'avons trouvé aucun indice permettant de conclure que la température puisse induire ce changement chez l'ombre commun ou chez la truite de rivière. De plus nous avons étudié la plasticité de développement ainsi que d'éclosion, et avons observé des différences entre familles ainsi qu'entre populations. Alors que ces différences comportementales entre populations suggéraient une adaptation aux conditions environnementales locales, cette prédiction n'a pas été confirmée par une expérience de transplantation réciproque d'embryons entre cinq rivières de la même région. Cette étude a montré que les embryons ne survivaient pas mieux dans leur rivière d'origine, indiquant donc une absence d'adaptation locale. Nous avons aussi montré que la mortalité embryonnaire était influencée autant par des "bons gènes" que par des "gènes compatibles", que la qualité des mâles pouvait être signalée par leur coloration, et que le fait d'élever des poissons dans une pisciculture pouvait aboutir a des relations contre-intuitives entre la coloration des mâles et la qualité de leur jeunes. Nos résultats contribuent ainsi à une meilleure compréhension de l'effet de diverses pressions environnementales sur la morphologie, le comportement ou les traits d'histoire de vie chez les salmonidés. - Environmental changes, such as changes in temperatures or infection levels, can induce selection and drive evolution if there is sufficient genetic variation for the traits or the plasticity in trait expression. In this thesis, we investigated the influence of potential environmental stressors on various phenotypes in representatives of the three salmonid subfamilies: the European grayling (Thymallus thymallus; Thymallinae), the brown trout (,Salmo trutta; Salmoninae), and the whitefish Coregonus palaea (Coregoninae). Salmonids are ideal study species, as they seem sensitive to changing environmental conditions, show considerable variability in morphological, behavioral, and life history traits, and are of broad public interest. We investigated whether temperature-induced sex reversal could explain the sex-ratio distortion found in one of Switzerland's largest grayling populations. We found no evidence of temperature-induced sex reversal in either graylings or brown trout. We also examined plasticity in embryo development and the timing of hatching. We found variation at the level of family and population. Although behavioral differences between populations suggested adaptation to local environmental conditions, no indications of local adaptation could be found in reciprocal transplant experiments carried out over five rivers in the same region. We also demonstrate that embryo development and viability is influenced by 'good genes' and 'compatible genes', that the genetic quality of sires can be signaled by their grey coloration, and that raising larvae in a hatchery environment can produce counter-intuitive relationships between male phenotypes and offspring viability. Our results contribute to the understanding of how changing environmental conditions affect the phenotypes and the heritability of early life-history traits in salmonids.

Complex genetics in idiopathic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism.

Idiopathic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (IHH) is an important human disease model. Investigations of the genetics of IHH have facilitated insights into critical pathways regulating sexual maturation and fertility. IHH has been traditionally considered a monogenic disorder. This model holds that a single gene defect is responsible for the disease in each patient. In the case of IHH, 30% of cases are explained by mutations in one of eleven genes. In recent years, several lines of evidence have challenged the monogenic paradigm in IHH. First, disease-associated mutations display striking incomplete penetrance and variable expressivity within and across IHH families. Second, each locus is responsible for only a small percentage of cases. Third, more than one disease-associated mutation seems to be segregating in some families with IHH, and their combined or separate presence in individuals accounts for the variability in disease severity. Finally, IHH is not strictly a congenital and life-long disorder; occasionally it manifests itself during adulthood (adult-onset IHH); in other cases, the disease is not permanent, as evidenced by normal activity of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis after discontinuation of treatment in adulthood (IHH reversal). Together, these observations suggest that IHH is not strictly a monogenic mendelian disease, as previously thought. Rather, it is emerging as a digenic, and potentially oligogenic disease, in which hormonal and/or environmental factors may critically influence genetic predisposition and clinical course. Future investigations of IHH should characterize the extent of the involvement of multiple genes in disease pathogenesis, and elucidate the contributions of epigenetic factors.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2011.

Background: Mortality figures become available after some years.Materials and methods: Using the World Health Organization mortality and population data, we estimated numbers of deaths in 2011 from all cancers and selected sites for the European Union (EU) and six major countries, by fitting a joinpoint model to 5-year age-specific numbers of deaths. Age-standardized rates were computed using EUROSTAT population estimates.Results: The predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU in 2011 was 1 281 436, with standardized rates of 143/100 000 men and 85/100 000 women. Poland had the highest rates, with smaller falls over recent periods. Declines in mortality for major sites including stomach, colorectum, breast, uterus, prostate and leukemias, plus male lung cancer, will continue until 2011, and a trend reversal or a leveling off is predicted where upward trends were previously observed. Female lung cancer rates are increasing in all major EU countries except the UK, where it is the first cause of cancer death, as now in Poland. The increasing pancreatic cancer trends in women observed up to 2004 have likely leveled off.Conclusions: Despite falls in rates, absolute numbers of cancer deaths are stable in Europe. The gap between Western and former nonmarket economy countries will likely persist.

Respiratory variability in mechanically ventilated patients. Critical Care 2011

Introduction: Increased respiratory pattern variability is associated with improved oxygenation. Pressure support (PS) is a widely used partial-assist mechanical ventilation (MV) mode, in which each breathing cycle is initiated by flow or pressure variation at the airway due to patient inspiratory effort. Neurally adjusted ventilatory assist (NAVA) is relatively new and uses the electrical activity of the diaphragm (Eadi) to deliver ventilatory support proportional to the patient's inspiratory demand. We hypothesize that respiratory variability should be greater with NAVA compared with PS.Methods: Twenty-two patients underwent 20 minutes of PS followed by 20 minutes of NAVA. Flow and Eadi curves were used to obtain tidal volume (Vt) and ∫Eadi for 300 to 400 breaths in each patient. Patient-specific cumulative distribution functions (CDF) show the percentage Vt and ∫Eadi within a clinically defined (±10%) variability band for each patient. Values are normalized to patient-specific medians for direct comparison. Variability in Vt (outcome) is thus expressed in terms of variability in ∫Eadi (demand) on the same plot.Results: Variability in Vt relative to variability in ∫Eadi is significantly greater for NAVA than PS (P = 0.00012). Hence, greater variability in outcome Vt is obtained for a given demand in ∫Eadi, under NAVA, as illustrated in Figure 1 for a typical patient. A Fisher 2 × 2 contingency analysis showed that 45% of patients under NAVA had a Vt variability in equal proportion to ∫Eadi variability, versus 0% for PS (P < 0.05).Conclusions: NAVA yields greater variability in tidal volume, relative to ∫Eadi demand, and a better match between Vt and ∫Eadi. These results indicate that NAVA could achieve improved oxygenation compared with PS when sufficient underlying variability in ∫Eadi is present, due to its ability to achieve higher tidal volume variability from a given variability in ∫Eadi.