Inversión en TICs y productividad: un breve panorama y una primera aproximación al caso de las regiones españolas

Tras un breve repaso de la experiencia internacional, en el presente trabajo se cuantifica la contribución de la inversión en las nuevas tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones (TICs) al crecimiento de España y sus regiones y a las disparidades de productividad entre estas últimas. Con este fin se estima una función de producción regional desagregando la dotación de capital en un componente TIC y otro no TIC. Una comparación de los resultados con los obtenidos a partir de la metodología habitual de contabilidad del crecimiento sugiere que la inversión en bienes TIC podría generar efectos indirectos internos y externos muy considerables.

Convergencia real y envejecimiento: retos y propuestas

España se enfrenta en las próximas décadas a dos grandes retos económicos y sociales: completar el proceso de convergencia en renta y bienestar con los países de nuestro entorno y asegurar la sostenibilidad del Estado del bienestar en un contexto demográfico desfavorable. La superación de estos retos exigirá reformas en muchos ámbitos para cuya implementación sería muy deseable contar con un amplio consenso político y social. Tras examinar la situación actual de la economía española y su evolución durante las últimas décadas desde una perspectiva comparada con la OCDE, en el presente trabajo se examinan las reformas necesarias en tres ámbitos que consideramos cruciales: educación, mercados de trabajo y de bienes y servicios, y sistema de pensiones.

Innovació tecnològica a la construcció subterrània

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out in the International Center for Numerical Methods in Engineering (CIMNE) –state agency – from February until November 2007. The work within the project Technology innovation in underground construction can be grouped into the following tasks: development of the software for modelling underground excavation based on the discrete element method - the numerical algorithms have been implemented in the computer programs and applied to simulation of excavation using roadheaders and TBM-s -; coupling of the discrete element method with the finite element method; development of the numerical model of rock cutting taking into account of wear of rock cutting tools -this work considers a very important factor influencing effectiveness of underground works -.

Estudi del sistema de constructes en dones víctimes de violència de gènere

Mitjançant les seves experiències, els éssers humans aprenen a construir significats amb els quals donar sentit i organitzar l’entorn físic i social en què es troben immersos. No accedeixen a una realitat vertadera i única sinó que són possibles múltiples construccions de la realitat. Per tant, és necessari elaborar hipòtesis sobre un mateix, els altres i l'entorn. Aquestes hipòtesis personals estan constituïdes per dimensions de significat o constructes, que consisteixen en la captació d’una diferència o en un contrast; implica percebre una discrepància, que s’expressarà en dos pols oposats. Per exemple, construir el significat “fort” implica diferenciar-lo del significat “feble”; a partir d’aquesta dimensió “fort–feble” s'organitzen les experiències classificant-les al llarg d’aquest continuum. Els constructes s’integren en una xarxa constituïnt un sistema. L’experiència clínica evidencia sovint que dones maltractades no reconeixen la violència de gènere. L’experiència d’abús ha de ser detectada, construïda i integrada dins del món dels significats, és a dir, dels constructes, per ser identificada com a tal. Per exemple, és necessari construir la noció d’agressor i de víctima per poder posicionar-hi a un mateix i als altres. L’objectiu d’aquest estudi és explorar el sistema de constructes en dones que pateixen o han patit violència de gènere, centrant-se en la construcció personal de l’abús per identificar els seus constructes i detectar possibles motius que bloquegin el trencament de la relació amb el maltractador o altres possibles solucions. La mostra està constituïda per 36 dones, amb un rang d’edat situat entre els 18 i els 72 anys. La mitjana d’edat es troba al voltant dels 45 anys. La durada d’aquest estudi és de març de 2006 a març de 2007.

The Child is father of the man: implications for the demographic transition

We propose a new theory of the demographic transition based on the evidence that body development during childhood is an important predictor of adult life expectancy. This theory is embodied in an OLG framework where fertility, longevity and education all result from individual decisions. The model displays different regimes, allowing the economy to move slowly from an initial Malthusian regime towards the Modern era. The dynamics reproduces the key features of the demographic transition, including the permanent increase in life expectancy, resulting from improvements in body development, the hump in both population growth and fertility, and a late increase in secondary educational attainments.

Linking conflict to inequality and polarization

In this paper we study a behavioral model of conflict that provides a basis for choosing certain indices of dispersion as indicators for conflict. We show that the (equilibrium) level of conflict can be expressed as an (approximate) linear function of the Gini coefficient, the Herfindahl-Hirschman fractionalization index, and a specific measure of polarization due to Esteban and Ray

Limited liability and mechanism design in procurement

In the presence of cost uncertainty, limited liability introduces the possibility of default in procurement with its associated bank-ruptcy costs. When financial soundness is not perfectly observable, we show that incentive compatibility implies that financially less sound contractors are selected with higher probability in any feasible mechanism. Informational rents are associated with unsound financial situations. By selecting the financially weakest contractor, stronger price competition (auctions) may not only increase the probability of default but also expected rents. Thus, weak conditions are suffcient for auctions to be suboptimal. In particular, we show that pooling firms with higher assets may reduce the cost of procurement even when default is costless for the sponsor.

Health and income: a robust comparison of Canada and the US

This paper uses sequential stochastic dominance procedures to compare the joint distribution of health and income across space and time. It is the First application of which we are aware of methods to compare multidimensional distributions of income and health using procedures that are robust to aggregation techniques. The paper's approach is more general than comparisons of health gradients and does not require the estimation of health equivalent incomes. We illustrate the approach by contrasting Canada and the US using comparable data. Canada dominates the US over the lower bidimensional welfare distribution of health and income, though not generally in terms of the uni-dimensional distribution of health or income. The paper also finds that welfare for both Canadians and Americans has not unambiguously improved during the last decade over the joint distribution of income and health, in spite of the fact that the uni-dimensional distributions of income have clearly improved during that period.

Testing for poverty dominance: an application to Canada

The paper proposes and applies statistical tests for poverty dominance that check for whether poverty comparisons can be made robustly over ranges of poverty lines and classes of poverty indices. This helps provide both normative and statistical confidence in establishing poverty rankings across distributions. The tests, which can take into account the complex sampling procedures that are typically used by statistical agencies to generate household-level surveys, are implemented using the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for 1996, 1999 and 2002. Although the yearly cumulative distribution functions cross at the lower tails of the distributions, the more recent years tend to dominate earlier years for a relatively wide range of poverty lines. Failing to take into account SLID's sampling variability (as is sometimes done) can inflate significantly one's confidence in ranking poverty. Taking into account SLID's complex sampling design (as has not been done before) can also decrease substantially the range of poverty lines over which a poverty ranking can be inferred.

A Comparison of the poverty impact of transfers, taxes and market income across five OECD Countries

This paper compares the poverty reduction impact of income sources, taxes and transfers across five OECD countries. Since the estimation of that impact can depend on the order in which the various income sources are introduced into the analysis, it is done by using the Shapley value. Estimates of the poverty reduction impact are presented in a normalized and un-normalized fashion, in order to take into into account the total as well as the per dollar impacts. The methodology is applied to data from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) database.

Comparing population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data: an application to historical height data from France

This paper develops a methodology to estimate the entire population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data. We do this through the estimation of the parameters of mixtures of distributions that allow for maximal parametric flexibility. The statistical approach we develop enables comparisons of the full distributions of height data from potential army conscripts across France's 88 departments for most of the nineteenth century. These comparisons are made by testing for differences-of-means stochastic dominance. Corrections for possible measurement errors are also devised by taking advantage of the richness of the data sets. Our methodology is of interest to researchers working on historical as well as contemporary bin-aggregated or histogram-type data, something that is still widely done since much of the information that is publicly available is in that form, often due to restrictions due to political sensitivity and/or confidentiality concerns.

Are the high-growth recovery periods over?

We present evidence about the loss of the so-called "plucking effect", that is, a high-growth phase of the cycle typically observed at the end of recessions. This result matches the popular belief, presented informally by different authors, that the current recession will have permanent effects, or that the current recession will have an L shape versus the old-time recessions that have always had a V shape. Furthermore, we show that the loss of the "plucking effect" can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies.

Un Enlace alternativo de los agregados de VAB y empleo de la CRE95 y la CRE00

El enlace que ha construido el INE entre las series de Contabilidad Regional en base 1995 y en base 2000 respeta los valores originales de la más antigua de estas series en su año base excepto por correcciones metodológicas. En este trabajo se argumenta que este procedimiento no es el más adecuado porque tiende a introducir fuertes distorsiones en los datos y se construye un enlace alternativo entre ambas series a nivel agregado.

Government information transparency

This paper studies a model of announcements by a privately informed government about the future state of the economic activity in an economy subject to recurrent shocks and with distortions due to income taxation. Although transparent communication would ex ante be desirable, we find that even a benevolent government may ex-post be non-informative, in an attempt to countervail the tax distortion with a "second best" compensating distortion in information. This result provides a rationale for independent national statistical offices, committed to truthful communication. We also find that whether inequality in income distribution favors or harms government transparency depends on labor supply elasticity.

Service offshoring and white-collar employment

This paper empirically studies the effects of service offshoring on white-collar employment, using data for more than one hundred U.S. occupations. A model of firm behavior based on separability allows to derive the labor demand elasticity with respect to service offshoring for each occupation. Estimation is performed with Quasi-Maximum Likelihood, to account for high degrees of censoring in the employment variable. The estimated elasticities are then related to proxies for the skill level and the degree of tradability of the occupations. Results show that service offshoring increases high skilled employment and decreases medium and low skilled employment. Within each skill group, however, service offshoring penalizes tradable occupations and benefits non-tradable occupations.