Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Generation of Naphthoquinone Radical Anions by Electrospray Ionization: Solution, Gas-Phase, and Computational Chemistry Studies

Radical anions are present in several chemical processes, and understanding the reactivity of these species may be described by their thermodynamic properties. Over the last years, the formation of radical ions in the gas phase has been an important issue concerning electrospray ionization mass spectrometry studies. In this work, we report on the generation of radical anions of quinonoid compounds (Q) by electrospray ionization mass spectrometry. The balance between radical anion formation and the deprotonated molecule is also analyzed by influence of the experimental parameters (gas-phase acidity, electron affinity, and reduction potential) and solvent system employed. The gas-phase parameters for formation of radical species and deprotonated species were achieved on the basis of computational thermochemistry. The solution effects on the formation of radical anion (Q(center dot-)) and dianion (Q(2-)) were evaluated on the basis of cyclic voltammetry analysis and the reduction potentials compared with calculated electron affinities. The occurrence of unexpected ions [Q + 15](-) was described as being a reaction between the solvent system and the radical anion, Q(center dot-).The gas-phase chemistry of the electrosprayed radical anions was obtained by collisional-induced dissociation and compared to the relative energy calculations. These results are important for understanding the formation and reactivity of radical anions and to establish their correlation with the reducing properties by electrospray ionization analyses.

A Computational Study of Tetrafluoro-[2.2]Cyclophanes

A computational study of the isomers of tetrafluorinated [2.2]cyclophanes persubstituted in one ring, namely F-4-[2.2]paracyclophane (4), F-4-anti-[2.2]metacyclophane (5a), F-4-syn-[2.2]metacyclophane (5b), and F-4-[2.2]metaparacyclophane (6a and 6b), was carried out. The effects of fluorination on the geometries, relative energies, local and global aromaticity, and strain energies of the bridges and rings were investigated. An analysis of the electron density by B3PW91/6-31+G(d,p), B3LYP/6-31+G(d,p), and MP2/6-31+G(d,p) was carried out using the natural bond orbitals (NBO), natural steric analysis (NSA), and atoms in molecules (AIM) methods. The analysis of frontier molecular orbitals (MOs) was also employed. The results indicated that the molecular structure of [2.2]paracyclophane is the most affected by the fluorination. Isodesmic reactions showed that the fluorinated rings are more strained than the nonfluorinated ones. The NICS, HOMA, and PDI criteria evidenced that the fluorination affects the aromaticity of both the fluorinated and the nonfluorinated rings. The NBO and NSA analyses gave an indication that the fluorination increases not only the number of through-space interactions but also their magnitude. The AIM analysis suggested that the through-space interactions are restricted to the F-4-[2.2]metacyclophanes. In addition, the atomic properties, computed over the atomic basins, shave evidence that not only the substitution, but also the position of the bridges could affect the atomic charges. the first atomic moments, and the atomic volumes.

Computational methods for prediction of T-cell epitopes - a framework for modelling, testing, and applications

Computational models complement laboratory experimentation for efficient identification of MHC-binding peptides and T-cell epitopes. Methods for prediction of MHC-binding peptides include binding motifs, quantitative matrices, artificial neural networks, hidden Markov models, and molecular modelling. Models derived by these methods have been successfully used for prediction of T-cell epitopes in cancer, autoimmunity, infectious disease, and allergy. For maximum benefit, the use of computer models must be treated as experiments analogous to standard laboratory procedures and performed according to strict standards. This requires careful selection of data for model building, and adequate testing and validation. A range of web-based databases and MHC-binding prediction programs are available. Although some available prediction programs for particular MHC alleles have reasonable accuracy, there is no guarantee that all models produce good quality predictions. In this article, we present and discuss a framework for modelling, testing, and applications of computational methods used in predictions of T-cell epitopes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulation of double-diffusion driven convective flow and rock alteration in three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones

Numerical methods are used to simulate the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow and rock alteration in three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones. The double diffusion is caused by a combination of both the positive upward temperature gradient and the positive downward salinity concentration gradient within a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone, which is assumed to be more permeable than its surrounding rocks. In order to ensure the physical meaningfulness of the obtained numerical solutions, the numerical method used in this study is validated by a benchmark problem, for which the analytical solution to the critical Rayleigh number of the system is available. The theoretical value of the critical Rayleigh number of a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system can be used to judge whether or not the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow can take place within the system. After the possibility of triggering the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow is theoretically validated for the numerical model of a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system, the corresponding numerical solutions for the convective flow and temperature are directly coupled with a geochemical system. Through the numerical simulation of the coupled system between the convective fluid flow, heat transfer, mass transport and chemical reactions, we have investigated the effect of the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow on the rock alteration, which is the direct consequence of mineral redistribution due to its dissolution, transportation and precipitation, within the three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulation of dendrite growth during solidification

A comprehensive probabilistic model for simulating dendrite morphology and investigating dendritic growth kinetics during solidification has been developed, based on a modified Cellular Automaton (mCA) for microscopic modeling of nucleation, growth of crystals and solute diffusion. The mCA model numerically calculated solute redistribution both in the solid and liquid phases, the curvature of dendrite tips and the growth anisotropy. This modeling takes account of thermal, curvature and solute diffusion effects. Therefore, it can simulate microstructure formation both on the scale of the dendrite tip length. This model was then applied for simulating dendritic solidification of an Al-7%Si alloy. Both directional and equiaxed dendritic growth has been performed to investigate the growth anisotropy and cooling rate on dendrite morphology. Furthermore, the competitive growth and selection of dendritic crystals have also investigated.

Satellite observation and climate system model simulation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya

The St. Lawrence Island polynya (SLIP) is a commonly occurring winter phenomenon in the Bering Sea, in which dense saline water produced during new ice formation is thought to flow northward through the Bering Strait to help maintain the Arctic Ocean halocline. Winter darkness and inclement weather conditions have made continuous in situ and remote observation of this polynya difficult. However, imagery acquired from the European Space Agency ERS-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has allowed observation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya using both the imagery and derived ice displacement products. With the development of ARCSyM, a high resolution regional model of the Arctic atmosphere/sea ice system, simulation of the SLIP in a climate model is now possible. Intercomparisons between remotely sensed products and simulations can lead to additional insight into the SLIP formation process. Low resolution SAR, SSM/I and AVHRR infrared imagery for the St. Lawrence Island region are compared with the results of a model simulation for the period of 24-27 February 1992. The imagery illustrates a polynya event (polynya opening). With the northerly winds strong and consistent over several days, the coupled model captures the SLIP event with moderate accuracy. However, the introduction of a stability dependent atmosphere-ice drag coefficient, which allows feedbacks between atmospheric stability, open water, and air-ice drag, produces a more accurate simulation of the SLIP in comparison to satellite imagery. Model experiments show that the polynya event is forced primarily by changes in atmospheric circulation followed by persistent favorable conditions: ocean surface currents are found to have a small but positive impact on the simulation which is enhanced when wind forcing is weak or variable.

Simulation of mixing in unsteady flow through a periodically obstructed channel

Fluid mixing in steady and unsteady Bow through a channel containing periodic square obstructions has been studied using a finite-difference simulation to determine fluid velocities, followed by the use of passive marker particle advection to look at fluid transport out of the cavities formed between each of the obstructions. The geometry and Bow conditions were chosen from the work by Perkins (1989, M.S. Thesis, Lehigh University; 1992, Ph.D. Thesis, Lehigh University); who investigated heat transfer enhancement due to unsteady flow through such an obstructed channel. Particle advection shows that Bow regimes which are predicted to give good mixing based on snapshots of instantaneous streamline contour plots were not necessarily able to efficiently mix fluid which started in the cavity regions throughout the channel. The use of Poincare sections shows regular regions existing under these conditions which inhibit efficient fluid transport. These regular regions are found to disappear when the unsteady Bow velocity is increased. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Application of a wrist dosimeter prototype for radiation monitoring ((153)Sm) during a therapeutic procedure simulation

Gamma and beta radiation emitting radiopharmaceuticals are handled in nuclear medicine services, and in many cases there is only individual monitoring of gamma radiation. In this paper, the results obtained using a wrist dosimeter prototype (CaSO(4):Dy + Teflon pellets) show that the doses for workers occupationally exposed to beta radiation from (153)Sm are not negligible. It is important that this dose is evaluated, and it has to be taken into consideration in the individual monitoring system.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective: water and nitrogen effects on spring wheat in a semi-arid environment

Systems approaches can help to evaluate and improve the agronomic and economic viability of nitrogen application in the frequently water-limited environments. This requires a sound understanding of crop physiological processes and well tested simulation models. Thus, this experiment on spring wheat aimed to better quantify water x nitrogen effects on wheat by deriving some key crop physiological parameters that have proven useful in simulating crop growth. For spring wheat grown in Northern Australia under four levels of nitrogen (0 to 360 kg N ha(-1)) and either entirely on stored soil moisture or under full irrigation, kernel yields ranged from 343 to 719 g m(-2). Yield increases were strongly associated with increases in kernel number (9150-19950 kernels m(-2)), indicating the sensitivity of this parameter to water and N availability. Total water extraction under a rain shelter was 240 mm with a maximum extraction depth of 1.5 m. A substantial amount of mineral nitrogen available deep in the profile (below 0.9 m) was taken up by the crop. This was the source of nitrogen uptake observed after anthesis. Under dry conditions this late uptake accounted for approximately 50% of total nitrogen uptake and resulted in high (>2%) kernel nitrogen percentages even when no nitrogen was applied,Anthesis LAI values under sub-optimal water supply were reduced by 63% and under sub-optimal nitrogen supply by 50%. Radiation use efficiency (RUE) based on total incident short-wave radiation was 1.34 g MJ(-1) and did not differ among treatments. The conservative nature of RUE was the result of the crop reducing leaf area rather than leaf nitrogen content (which would have affected photosynthetic activity) under these moderate levels of nitrogen limitation. The transpiration efficiency coefficient was also conservative and averaged 4.7 Pa in the dry treatments. Kernel nitrogen percentage varied from 2.08 to 2.42%. The study provides a data set and a basis to consider ways to improve simulation capabilities of water and nitrogen effects on spring wheat. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Evaluation of computational methods for the reconstruction of HLA haplotypes

Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) haplotypes are frequently evaluated for population history inferences and association studies. However, the available typing techniques for the main HLA loci usually do not allow the determination of the allele phase and the constitution of a haplotype, which may be obtained by a very time-consuming and expensive family-based segregation study. Without the family-based study, computational inference by probabilistic models is necessary to obtain haplotypes. Several authors have used the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to determine HLA haplotypes, but high levels of erroneous inferences are expected because of the genetic distance among the main HLA loci and the presence of several recombination hotspots. In order to evaluate the efficiency of computational inference methods, 763 unrelated individuals stratified into three different datasets had their haplotypes manually defined in a family-based study of HLA-A, -B, -DRB1 and -DQB1 segregation, and these haplotypes were compared with the data obtained by the following three methods: the Expectation-Maximization (EM) and Excoffier-Laval-Balding (ELB) algorithms using the arlequin 3.11 software, and the PHASE method. When comparing the methods, we observed that all algorithms showed a poor performance for haplotype reconstruction with distant loci, estimating incorrect haplotypes for 38%-57% of the samples considering all algorithms and datasets. We suggest that computational haplotype inferences involving low-resolution HLA-A, HLA-B, HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1 haplotypes should be considered with caution.