943 resultados para Complex systems prediction


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Detracking and heterogeneous groupwork are two educational practices that have been shown to have promise for affording all students needed learning opportunities to develop mathematical proficiency. However, teachers face significant pedagogical challenges in organizing productive groupwork in these settings. This study offers an analysis of one teacher’s role in creating a classroom system that supported student collaboration within groups in a detracked, heterogeneous geometry classroom. The analysis focuses on four categories of the teacher’s work that created a set of affordances to support within group collaborative practices and links the teacher’s work with principles of complex systems.

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Recent developments in federal policy have prompted the creation of state evaluation frameworks for principals and teachers that hold educators accountable for effective practices and student outcomes. These changes have created a demand for formative evaluation instruments that reflect current accountability pressures and can be used by schools to focus school improvement and leadership development efforts. The Comprehensive Assessment of Leadership for Learning (CALL) is a next generation, 360-degree on-line assessment and feedback system that reflect best practices in feedback design. Some unique characteristics of CALL include a focus on: leadership distributed throughout the school rather than as carried out by an individual leader; assessment of leadership tasks rather than perceptions of leadership practice; a focus on larger complex systems of middle and high school; and transparency of assessment design. This paper describes research contributing to the design and validation of the CALL survey instrument.

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Nuestro trabajo tiene como objetivo aplicar conceptos de la teoría de los sistemas complejos y herramientas del análisis de redes sociales para describir y analizar el surgimiento y la evolución de una red social conformada por científicos, docentes, graduados y funcionarios públicos de diferentes organismos científicos y académicos, que crearon y participaron de un equipo multidisciplinario que elaboró un informe sobre un proyecto de ley de Ordenamiento Territorial y Usos del Suelo de la provincia de Mendoza en el año 2006. Para la compresión de la evolución del proceso de elaboración del proyecto de ley de ordenamiento territorial y de usos del suelo, organizaremos la estructura del trabajo de la siguiente manera: - Primero aplicaremos aspectos teóricos y metodológicos, basados en la sistematización realizada por Rolando García en su libro “Sistemas Complejos. Conceptos, método y fundamentación epistemológica de la investigación interdisciplinaria", para realizar el recorte del sistema objeto de estudio. - En segundo lugar utilizaremos la Teoría de Análisis de Redes Sociales para describir la composición y estructura del sistema (nodos y vínculos) en cada momento. La estructura del sistema en cada momento significativo será graficada por medio el Software Ucinet 6 y NetDraw. - Por último, haremos referencia a las dificultades que tuvo el proceso desde el punto de vista de las condicionalidades que generaban los modelos mentales que portaban los participantes.

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The micro-scale spatial distribution patterns of a demersal fish and decapod crustacean assemblage were assessed in a hard-bottom kelp environment in the southern North Sea. Using quadrats along line transects, we assessed the in situ fish and crustacean abundance in relation to substratum types (rock, cobbles and large pebbles) and the density of algae. Six fish and four crustacean species were abundant, with Ctenolabrus rupestris clearly dominating the fish community and Galathea squamifera dominating the crustacean community. Differences in the substratum types had an even stronger effect on the micro-scale distribution than the density of the dominating algae species. Kelp had a negative effect on the fish abundances, with significantly lower average densities in kelp beds compared with adjacent open areas. Averaged over all of the substrata, the most attractive substratum for the fish was large pebbles. In contrast, crustaceans did not show a specific substratum affinity. The results clearly indicate that, similar to other complex systems, significant micro-scale species-habitat associations occur in northern hard-bottom environments. However, because of the frequently harsh environmental conditions, these habitats are mainly sampled from ships with sampling gear, and the resulting data cannot be used to resolve small-scale species-habitat associations. A detailed substratum classification and community assessment, often only possible using SCUBA diving, is therefore important to reach a better understanding of the functional relationships between species and their environment in northern temperate waters, knowledge that is very important with respect to the increasing environmental pressure caused by global climate change.

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As the atmospheric CO2 concentration rises, more CO2 will dissolve in the oceans, leading to a reduction in pH. Effects of ocean acidification on bacterial communities have mainly been studied in biologically complex systems, in which indirect effects, mediated through food web interactions, come into play. These approaches come close to nature but suffer from low replication and neglect seasonality. To comprehensively investigate direct pH effects, we conducted highly-replicated laboratory acidification experiments with the natural bacterial community from Helgoland Roads (North Sea). Seasonal variability was accounted for by repeating the experiment four times (spring, summer, autumn, winter). Three dilution approaches were used to select for different ecological strategies, i.e. fast-growing or low-nutrient adapted bacteria. The pH levels investigated were in situ seawater pH (8.15-8.22), pH 7.82 and pH 7.67, representing the present-day situation and two acidification scenarios projected for the North Sea for the year 2100. In all seasons, both automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis and 16S ribosomal amplicon pyrosequencing revealed pH-dependent community shifts for two of the dilution approaches. Bacteria susceptible to changes in pH were different members of Gammaproteobacteria, Flavobacteriaceae, Rhodobacteraceae, Campylobacteraceae and further less abundant groups. Their specific response to reduced pH was often context-dependent. Bacterial abundance was not influenced by pH. Our findings suggest that already moderate changes in pH have the potential to cause compositional shifts, depending on the community assembly and environmental factors. By identifying pH-susceptible groups, this study provides insights for more directed, in-depth community analyses in large-scale and long-term experiments.

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The Global River Discharge (RivDIS) data set contains monthly discharge measurements for 1018 stations located throughout the world. The period of record varies widely from station to station, with a mean of 21.5 years. These data were digitized from published UNESCO archives by Charles Voromarty, Balaze Fekete, and B.A. Tucker of the Complex Systems Research Center (CSRC) at the University of New Hampshire. River discharge is typically measured through the use of a rating curve that relates local water level height to discharge. This rating curve is used to estimate discharge from the observed water level. The rating curves are periodically rechecked and recalibrated through on-site measurement of discharge and river stage.

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The modelling of critical infrastructures (CIs) is an important issue that needs to be properly addressed, for several reasons. It is a basic support for making decisions about operation and risk reduction. It might help in understanding high-level states at the system-of-systems layer, which are not ready evident to the organisations that manage the lower level technical systems. Moreover, it is also indispensable for setting a common reference between operator and authorities, for agreeing on the incident scenarios that might affect those infrastructures. So far, critical infrastructures have been modelled ad-hoc, on the basis of knowledge and practice derived from less complex systems. As there is no theoretical framework, most of these efforts proceed without clear guides and goals and using informally defined schemas based mostly on boxes and arrows. Different CIs (electricity grid, telecommunications networks, emergency support, etc) have been modelled using particular schemas that were not directly translatable from one CI to another. If there is a desire to build a science of CIs it is because there are some observable commonalities that different CIs share. Up until now, however, those commonalities were not adequately compiled or categorized, so building models of CIs that are rooted on such commonalities was not possible. This report explores the issue of which elements underlie every CI and how those elements can be used to develop a modelling language that will enable CI modelling and, subsequently, analysis of CI interactions, with a special focus on resilience

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Modern FPGAs with run-time reconfiguration allow the implementation of complex systems offering both the flexibility of software-based solutions combined with the performance of hardware. This combination of characteristics, together with the development of new specific methodologies, make feasible to reach new points of the system design space, and make embedded systems built on these platforms acquire more and more importance. However, the practical exploitation of this technique in fields that traditionally have relied on resource restricted embedded systems, is mainly limited by strict power consumption requirements, the cost and the high dependence of DPR techniques with the specific features of the device technology underneath. In this work, we tackle the previously reported problems, designing a reconfigurable platform based on the low-cost and low-power consuming Spartan-6 FPGA family. The full process to develop the platform will be detailed in the paper from scratch. In addition, the implementation of the reconfiguration mechanism, including two profiles, is reported. The first profile is a low-area and low-speed reconfiguration engine based mainly on software functions running on the embedded processor, while the other one is a hardware version of the same engine, implemented in the FPGA logic. This reconfiguration hardware block has been originally designed to the Virtex-5 family, and its porting process will be also described in this work, facing the interoperability problem among different families.

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En el estudio buscamos caracterizar el análisis de la SOSTENIBILIDAD (Suficiencia) del CICLO DE VIDA de una INFRAESTRUCTURA AEROPORTUARIA centrándonos en la evaluación de los aspectos SOCIALES (de forma Interdisciplinaria o Transversal) que le afectan y considerando todos los AGENTES involucrados (ingenieros/ operadores/ mantenedores/ usuarios/ stakeholders/ etc.). La complejidad de las interacciones entre los edificios y su entorno hace que sea difícil definir y evaluar con precisión la sostenibilidad de un edificio. Las NORMAS AMBIENTALES para la construcción (unas pocas existentes y algunos en fase de desarrollo) se centran en la sostenibilidad ECONÓMICA, SOCIAL Y AMBIENTAL que caracteriza a un edificio, siendo los aspectos socio-económicos difíciles de evaluar. En consecuencia, los métodos existentes para la evaluación de la construcción sostenible (por ejemplo, LEED, BREEAM, SBTool) tienden a superar los aspectos ambientales pues son más fáciles de evaluar de manera cuantitativa. Así desde el punto de vista holístico (global) y utilizando la teoría de sistemas complejos, la sostenibilidad debe ser evaluada, en parte, utilizando los INDICADORES DE SOSTENIBILIDAD SOCIALES Y ECONÓMICOS para cubrir todos los factores de Sostenibilidad. El estudio propone una metodología para valorar la sostenibilidad en la construcción aeroportuaria a través de la evaluación de los indicadores sostenibles de la construcción (SKPIs) sin y superando las carencias presentadas. Para ello hemos implementado una herramienta de evaluación de la sostenibilidad, donde: Puede evaluar, en primer aproximación e independientemente, la sostenibilidad del CICLO DE VIDA de la INFRAESTRUCTURA AEROPORTUARIA Puede COMPLETAR otras herramientas comerciales disponibles (ej. BREEAM, LEED), bajo un enfoque ECONÓMICO-SOCIAL y complementando el enfoque ambiental La evaluación de los KPIs se realiza por medio de TECNOLOGÍAS Y ESTRATEGIAS SOSTENIBLES, cuya aplicación supondría un aumento de la sostenibilidad del edificio La herramienta propuesta considera la complejidad y transdisciplinariedad del problema, fundada en un SISTEMA DE CRÉDITOS fácil de usar. Así el programa diseñado permite el análisis y la comparación del CICLO DE VIDA de la INFRAESTRUCTURA AEROPORTUARIA: Abarcando las etapas de construcción (diseño, operación, mantenimiento, etc.) Incluyendo a todos los agentes de construcción (ocupantes, stakeholders, constructores, etc.) Finalmente, se aporta un ejemplo teórico de una INFRAESTRUCTURA AEROPORTUARIA (Terminal Aeroportuaria) para fijar, demostrar y discutir el estudio presentado Abstract We seek to characterize the sustainability analysis of the life cycle of a building focus us on the evaluation of social aspect. From a holistic point of view and using complex systems theory, sustainability must be evaluated, in part, using social key performance indicator (KPI) to cover all factors of sustainability. The most remarkable of the proposed framework is to provide a methodology to achieve the sustainability in construction through the assessment of social KPIs. Besides we implement a tool to assess sustainability, where this tool could complete other commercial tools available (e.g. BREEAM, LEED). The proposed tool considers the complexity and trans-disciplinary of the problem. The procedure is based on a credit system easy to use. It also allows analysis and comparison of the boundary conditions of the building, embracing construction stages (design, operation), involving all the building agents (occupants, stakeholders, etc.)

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La presión sobre el acceso a la tierra en la península de Dakar, Senegal, ha generado un proceso de transformación físico-social del mayor asentamiento auto-producido de la periferia urbana de Dakar (Pikine Irregular Sur) en el periodo 2005-2011. Esta investigación se propone analizar en qué medida las acciones llevadas a cabo: i) satisfacen o no el sistema integral de necesidades de los afectados (Demanda); ii) favorecen la implicación de los afectados o, por el contrario, fortalecen las estructuras de poder dominantes (Oferta), y iii) promueven o no la autonomía económica, la sostenibilidad ambiental, la equidad social y la legitimidad de los actores que participan (Entorno). La investigación se ha llevado a cabo por el método de estudio de casos, mediante un proceso de recogida de información participativo, articulado de abajo hacia arriba, en el que han participado 196 personas; la información recogida se ha procesado mediante la utilización de dos herramientas de análisis de realidades complejas: flujo de programa y sistema funcional. Los resultados del estudio de los casos 1 y 2 muestran que las acciones se han llevado a cabo en beneficio de los intereses de los mercados y de los actores que toman las decisiones y gestionan los recursos, incrementando la dependencia económica, empobreciendo a los directamente afectados y fragmentando su tejido social, promoviendo un desarrollo urbano desequilibrado, disperso y segregado, y deslegitimando a las instituciones involucradas. En el estudio del caso 3, en cambio, se verifica que la acción se ha llevado a cabo en beneficio de los intereses de los directamente afectados, utilizando recursos endógenos, fortaleciendo su tejido social, promoviendo un desarrollo urbano concentrado e inclusivo, e incrementando la legitimidad de las instituciones involucradas. El análisis cruzado de los resultados muestra que la pobreza, la exclusión social y la precariedad habitacional, en el contexto específico de la periferia de Dakar, no son un problema de falta de recursos, sino de falta de ética por parte de quienes gestionan y financian los procesos de transformación físico-social, y de falta de voluntad por parte de las autoridades de implicar a los ciudadanos, y en particular a los directamente afectados, en los procesos de toma de decisiones de las acciones y los programas que les afectan. Finalmente se concluye que no se trata de luchar contra la pobreza, sino de luchar contra los sistemas injustos que generan la pobreza y la exclusión. ABSTRACT The pressure on the access to land in the area of Dakar, Senegal, has generated a physical/social transformation process in the largest self-produced settlement in the urban periphery of Dakar (South Irregular Pikine), in the period 2005-2011. This research aims to analyze to what extent the actions carried out: i) satisfy the integral needs of the affected population (Demand), ii) encourage the involvement of those affected or otherwise strengthen dominant power structures (Supply), and iii) promote or inhibit economic autonomy, environmental sustainability, social equity and legitimacy of the actors involved (Environment). The research was conducted by the case study method. 196 people participated in a bottom-up participatory process of information gathering. The information collected was processed using two custom tools aimed to analyse complex systems: the program flow and the functional system. The results of case studies 1 and 2 show that the actions were carried out in the best interest of the markets and the actors who made decisions and managed resources, increasing economic dependence, impoverishing those directly affected and fragmenting their social network by promoting an unbalanced, dispersed and segregated urban development, and de-legitimizing the institutions involved in the process. On the contrary, in the case study 3 it is verified that the action has been carried out on behalf of the interests of those directly affected, using endogenous resources, strengthening the social network, promoting a focused and inclusive urban development, and increasing legitimacy of the institutions involved. The comparative analysis of the results shows that poverty, social exclusion and precarious housing in South Irregular Pikine are not a problem of lack of resources but of unethical behaviour of those who manage and finance physical and social transformation processes, as well as unwillingness on the part of the authorities to involve citizens in the decision making processes for the actions and programs that affect them. Finally we conclude that the enemy to fight against is not poverty but unfair systems that generate poverty and exclusion. RÉSUMÉ La pression sur le foncier dans la presqu'île de Dakar, au Sénégal, a généré un processus de transformation physico-sociale du plus grand établissement auto-produit de la périphérie urbaine de Dakar (Pikine Irrégulier Sud), durant la période 2005-2011. Cette recherche vise à analyser dans quelle mesure les actions menées: i) répondent ou non à l’ensemble des besoins intégrales des personnes concernés (Demande), ii) encouragent l'implication des concernées ou au contraire renforcent les structures de pouvoir dominant (Offre), et iii) favorisent ou non l'autonomie économique, la durabilité environnementale, l'équité sociale et la légitimité des acteurs concernés (Contexte). La recherche a été menée par la méthode des études de cas, par un processus de collecte d'information participative articulée du bas vers le haut dans lequel ont participé 196 personnes. Les informations recueillies ont été traitées à l'aide de deux outils d'analyse de réalités complexes: le système fonctionnel et le flux de programme. Les résultats de l'étude de cas 1 et 2 montrent que les actions ont été menées au profit des intérêts des marchés et des acteurs qui prennent les décisions et gèrent les ressources, augmentant la dépendance économique, appauvrissant ceux qui sont directement concernés et fragmentant leur tissu social, encourageant un développement urbain déséquilibré, dispersé et ségrégé, et délégitimant les institutions concernées. Dans l'étude de cas 3, cependant, il est vérifié que l'action a été menée au profit des intérêts de ceux qui sont directement concernés, en utilisant des ressources endogènes, en renforçant son tissu social, en encourageant un développement urbain concentré et inclusif, et en augmentant la légitimité des institutions concernées. L'analyse comparée des résultats montre que la pauvreté, l'exclusion sociale et le logement précaire, dans le contexte spécifique de la banlieue de Dakar, ne sont pas un problème de manque de ressources, mais de manque d'éthique de la part de ceux qui gèrent et financent les processus de transformation physico-sociale, et de manque de volonté de la part des autorités d'impliquer les citoyens, en particulier ceux qui sont directement concernés, dans le processus de prise de décision des actions et des programmes qui les impliquent. Finalement, on conclut qu'il ne s'agit pas de lutter contre la pauvreté, mais de lutter contre les systèmes injustes qui produisent la pauvreté et l'exclusion.

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The Agent-Based Modelling and simulation (ABM) is a rather new approach for studying complex systems withinteracting autonomous agents that has lately undergone great growth in various fields such as biology, physics, social science, economics and business. Efforts to model and simulate the highly complex cement hydration process have been made over the past 40 years, with the aim of predicting the performance of concrete and designing innovative and enhanced cementitious materials. The ABM presented here - based on previous work - focuses on the early stages of cement hydration by modelling the physical-chemical processes at the particle level. The model considers the cement hydration process as a time and 3D space system, involving multiple diffusing and reacting species of spherical particles. Chemical reactions are simulated by adaptively selecting discrete stochastic simulation for the appropriate reaction, whenever that is necessary. Interactions between particles are also considered. The model has been inspired by reported cellular automata?s approach which provides detailed predictions of cement microstructure at the expense of significant computational difficulty. The ABM approach herein seeks to bring about an optimal balance between accuracy and computational efficiency.