How contractors price risk in bids: theory and practice

Formal and analytical models that contractors can use to assess and price project risk at the tender stage have proliferated in recent years. However, they are rarely used in practice. Introducing more models would, therefore, not necessarily help. A better understanding is needed of how contractors arrive at a bid price in practice, and how, and in what circumstances, risk apportionment actually influences pricing levels. More than 60 proposed risk models for contractors that are published in journals were examined and classified. Then exploratory interviews with five UK contractors and documentary analyses on how contractors price work generally and risk specifically were carried out to help in comparing the propositions from the literature to what contractors actually do. No comprehensive literature on the real bidding processes used in practice was found, and there is no evidence that pricing is systematic. Hence, systematic risk and pricing models for contractors may have no justifiable basis. Contractors process their bids through certain tendering gateways. They acknowledge the risk that they should price. However, the final settlement depends on a set of complex, micro-economic factors. Hence, risk accountability may be smaller than its true cost to the contractor. Risk apportionment occurs at three stages of the whole bid-pricing process. However, analytical approaches tend not to incorporate this, although they could.

Peroxyl radical-scavenging activity of coffee brews

The ORAC(FL) assay was used in non-automated mode to evaluate the specific peroxyl radical scavenging properties of the aqueous soluble components of green and roasted Arabica and Robusta coffee samples. A relationship between ORAC(FL) and the concentration of CQAs (caffeoyl quinic acids) was found for the extracts from green coffee beans. Aqueous extracts from roasted coffee beans possessed equal or stronger scavenging power than that obtained for the green coffee beans extracts and the scavenging activity depended on the variety of coffee and the roasting conditions. Brews from Robusta coffee beans showed the highest ORAC(FL). The best scavenging properties for the brews from Arabica coffee beans were detected in samples prepared from coffee beans roasted under light conditions. The data indicate that, during roasting, a complex network of reactions takes place leading to the formation of a wide number of compounds possessing specific scavenging properties. Under mild roasting conditions, caffeoyl quinic acids appear to be the main components responsible for the free radical scavenging power of coffee brews. In contrast, Maillard reaction products may be the principal components with free radical scavenging activity in more severely (medium and dark) roasted coffees.

Deciding the price of fame

Previous studies of ignorance-driven decision-making have either analyzed when ignorance should prove advantageous on theoretical grounds, or else they have examined whether human behavior is consistent with an ignorance driven inference strategy (e.g., the recognition heuristic). The current study merges these research goals by examining whether – under conditions where ignorance driven inference might be expected – the type of advantages theoretical analyses predict are evident in human performance data. A single experiment shows that, when asked to make relative wealth judgments, participants reliably use recognition as a basis for their judgments. Their wealth judgments under these conditions are reliably more accurate when some of the target names are unknown than when participants recognize all the names (the “less-is-more effect”). these data are robust against a number of variations on the size of the pool from which participants have to choose and the nature of the wealth judgment.

The price of risk in construction projects: contingency approximation model (CAM)

Little attention has been focussed on a precise definition and evaluation mechanism for project management risk specifically related to contractors. When bidding, contractors traditionally price risks using unsystematic approaches. The high business failure rate our industry records may indicate that the current unsystematic mechanisms contractors use for building up contingencies may be inadequate. The reluctance of some contractors to include a price for risk in their tenders when bidding for work competitively may also not be a useful approach. Here, instead, we first define the meaning of contractor contingency, and then we develop a facile quantitative technique that contractors can use to estimate a price for project risk. This model will help contractors analyse their exposure to project risks; and help them express the risk in monetary terms for management action. When bidding for work, they can decide how to allocate contingencies strategically in a way that balances risk and reward.

A double-blind, placebo controlled human study investigating the effects of coffee derived manno-oligosaccharides on the faecal microbiota of a healthy adult population.

The aims of this study were to assess the impact of coffee derived mannooligosaccharides on the faecal microbiota of a healthy UK based population. Methods and Results: A double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover human intervention study was conducted. Volunteers were assigned, 3g MOS, 5g MOS and placebo coffee preparations, to consume daily over a 3 wks, followed by a 2 wk washout period. Faecal samples were collected, and microbial population characterised using fluorescence in situ hybridization. Short-chain and branched-chain fatty acid profiles were obtained by gas chromatography. All treatments led to significant lactobacilli increases (placebo, p < 0.001; 3g, p = 0.04; 5g, p=0.04). The 3g treatment led to a significant bifidobacteria increase (p=0.001). Significantly less iso-valerate was found in faeces following 3g MOS daily (p=0.05). Conclusions: The 3g dose of MOS led to a potentially beneficial shift in the faecal microbiota. MOS was therefore confirmed to be a prebiotic at 3g dose. Significance and Impact of Study: This study provides confirmation of a new novel prebiotic, that can be considered for incorporation into a wider variety of food products, to provide different selective and nutritional properties.