La probabilidad de supervivencia en un modelo con reaseguro proporcional de umbral

[spa] En este artículo presentamos una nueva estrategia de reaseguro, a la que denominamos estrategia de reaseguro umbral, que actúa de forma diferente en función del nivel de las reservas. Así, para unos niveles de las reservas inferiores a un determinado nivel, el gestor decide aplicar un reaseguro proporcional, y para niveles superiores, al considerar que se ha alcanzado cierta solvencia en la cartera, opta por no ceder ningún porcentaje del riesgo. El análisis del efecto de la introducción del reaseguro umbral sobre la probabilidad de supervivencia, y su comparación con el reaseguro proporcional y la opción de no reasegurar, nos permite hallar estrategias de reaseguro equivalentes desde el punto de vista de la solvencia. Palabras clave: teoría del riesgo, reaseguro de umbral, reaseguro proporcional, probabilidad de supervivencia.

Reparto de dividendos en una cartera de seguros no vida : obtención de la barrera constante óptima bajo criterios económico-actuariales

Consideramos el proceso clásico del riesgo modificado con la introducción de una barrera dedividendos constante, de tal forma que cuando el proceso de reservas alcanza la barrera se pagandividendos hasta la ocurrencia del siguiente siniestro. En la literatura actuarial se plantea el cálculo de W(u,b) definida como la esperanza del valor actual, a un tanto constante, de los dividendos repartidos hasta el momento de ruina en un modelo con barrera constante b(t)=b. Se calcula el valor de la barrera que maximiza dicha esperanza. En este trabajo se realizan dos contribuciones en este tema. En primer lugar se profundiza en el análisis de W(u,b), proponiéndose combinaciones de las variables de control que proporcionan resultados económicamente óptimos. En segundo lugar se definen nuevas medidas relacionadas con W(u,b) que la complementan y pueden ayudar al decisor en el proceso de definición de las variables de control.

Alterations of soil chemical properties by eucalyptus cultivation in five regions in the Rio Doce Valley

Little is currently known about modifications in edaphic characteristics caused by short-rotation eucalyptus and the impacts of these alterations on the sustainability of eucalyptus wood production. This study was carried out to identify theses changes at five sites of eucalyptus plantation in the region of the Rio Doce Valley, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Areas with more than three previous eucalyptus cycles, adjacent to pasture land or native forest, were chosen. Soil samples were collected and soil fertility analyzed by routine methods and other fractionation methods in order to measure alterations in the K, Ca and Mg contents as a consequence of eucalyptus cultivation. In the eucalyptus areas, reductions in the exchangeable Ca2+, Mg2+ and K+ contents and pH were observed and increased Al3+ and H + Al contents. Of all nutrients, only P contents (Mehlich-1 P) increased in the eucalyptus areas. The reduction in exchangeable forms and in medium-term soil nutrient pools indicates the need for higher nutrient rates than the currently applied in order to prevent nutritional limitations and soil nutrient exhaustion. After several eucalyptus rotations there was a recovery in the SOM content in comparison to degraded pasture soils, although not to the level of the native forest soil. The positive correlation between effective CEC and medium-term non-exchangeable Ca, Mg and K with SOM emphasizes the need for adequate fertilizer and plant residue management to sustain or even increase forest productivity in future cycles.

Discrete analysis of dividend payments in a non-life insurance portfolio

The process of free reserves in a non-life insurance portfolio as defined in the classical model of risk theory is modified by the introduction of dividend policies that set maximum levels for the accumulation of reserves. The first part of the work formulates the quantification of the dividend payments via the expectation of their current value under diferent hypotheses. The second part presents a solution based on a system of linear equations for discrete dividend payments in the case of a constant dividend barrier, illustrated by solving a specific case.

Nutrient relations during an eucalyptus cycle at different population densities

To synchronize nutrient availability with the requirements of eucalyptus during a cultivation cycle, the nutrient flow of this system must be well understood. Essential, for example, is information about nutrient dynamics in eucalyptus plantations throughout a cultivation cycle, as well as impacts on soil nutrient reserves caused by the accumulation and subsequent export of nutrients via biomass. It is also important to quantify the effect of some management practices, such as tree population density (PD) on these fluxes. Some nutrient relations in an experiment with Eucalyptus grandis, grown at different PDs in Santa Barbara, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, were evaluated for one cultivation cycle. At forest ages of 0.25, 2.5, 4.5, and 6.75 years, evaluations were carried out in the stands at seven different PDs (between 500 and 5,000 trees ha-1) which consisted in chemical analyses of plant tissue sampled from components of the aboveground parts of the tree, from the forest floor and the litterfall. Nutrient contents and allocations of the different biomass components were estimated. In general, there were only small and statistically insignificant effects of PD on the nutrient concentration in trees. With increasing forest age, P, K, Ca and Mg concentrations were reduced in the aboveground components and the forest floor. The magnitud of biochemical nutrient cycling followed the sequence: P > K > N > Mg. At the end of the cycle, the quantities of N, P, Ca and Mg immobilized in the forest floor were higher than in the other components.

Impact of brain aging and neurodegeneration on cognition: evidence from MRI.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We present an overview of recent concepts in mechanisms underlying cognitive decline associated with brain aging and neurodegeneration from the perspective of MRI. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent findings challenge the established link between neuroimaging biomarkers of neurodegeneration and age-related or disease-related cognitive decline. Amyloid burden, white matter hyperintensities and local patterns of brain atrophy seem to have differential impact on cognition, particularly on episodic and working memory - the most vulnerable domains in 'normal aging' and Alzheimer's disease. Studies suggesting that imaging biomarkers of neurodegeneration are independent of amyloid-β give rise to new hypothesis regarding the pathological cascade in Alzheimer's disease. Findings in patients with autosomal-dominant Alzheimer's disease confirm the notion of differential temporal trajectory of amyloid deposition and brain atrophy to add another layer of complexity on the basic mechanisms of cognitive aging and neurodegeneration. Finally, the concept of cognitive reserve in 'supernormal aging' is questioned by evidence for the preservation of neurochemical, structural and functional brain integrity in old age rather than recruitment of 'reserves' for maintaining cognitive abilities. SUMMARY: Recent advances in clinical neuroscience, brain imaging and genetics challenge pathophysiological hypothesis of neurodegeneration and cognitive aging dominating the field in the last decade and call for reconsidering the choice of therapeutic window for early intervention.

Humic Haplustox under different land uses in a high altitude environment in the Agreste region of Pernambuco, Brazil

The Garanhuns Plateau in the Agreste region of the State of Pernambuco, Brazil is characterized by humid climatic conditions due to orographic rains, unlike the surrounding semiarid region. These soils are subjected to intense agricultural use and are extremely important for the regional economy. This study was carried out in the municipality of Brejão in the Agreste region with the aim of assessing changes in humic Haplustox soils subjected to different land uses. Four plots with different vegetation covers (native forest, secondary shrubby vegetation (capoeira), traditional cropping system, and planted pasture) were selected, and samples were taken from a soil profile and four small pits surrounding it at each site. Physical and chemical properties were assessed, including aggregate stability, humic organic fractions, and a microbiological evaluation through determination of basal respiration, microbial biomass carbon, and metabolic quotient. The soils under study showed physical and chemical properties typical of a Haplustox, such as low nutrient content, low cation exchange capacity, and high levels of acidity and Al saturation. The total organic carbon (TOC) contents were high regardless of the type of land use. Aggregates < 2 mm were dominant in all the conditions under study. The TOC content was higher in the soil under capoeira, 43.91 g kg-1 on the surface, while 34.36 and 33.43 g kg-1 of TOC were observed in the first layer of forest and pasture soils, respectively. While the microbial biomass C (MBC) was greater than 700 mg kg-1 in the forest and pasture areas (in the 0-5 cm layer), and 588 mg kg-1 in the soil under capoeira, these numbers were not statistically different. In the cultivated soil area, there was a reduction of around 28 % in TOC and MBC contents. Agricultural activity contributed to degradation of the humic horizon, as can be seen from a significant decrease in the TOC and changes in the relative distribution of the humic fractions. In contrast, aggregate stability was not altered as a function of the different land uses; the soil under planted pasture and capoeira were similar to the soil under native forest. Humin was the most important humified fraction for C reserves, contributing over 40 % of the TOC in these soils.

On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

Use of legal reserve areas as geochemical background in hydrosedimentology studies¹

In hydrosedimentology studies the determination of the trace element concentrations at the study site is imperative, since this background can be used to assess the enrichment of sediments with these elements. This enrichment can be the result of the natural process of geological formation or of anthropogenic activities. In the latter case, guidelines are used to indicate the concentrations at which trace elements cause ecotoxicity effects on the environment. Thus, this study used legal reserve areas in the municipality of Toledo, PR, where natural forests are maintained, with no or minimal human interference to establish background levels. The results of atomic emission spectrometry with inductively coupled argon plasma showed that the legal reserves have lower levels of trace elements than other theoretical references, but equivalent concentrations to the safety levels recommended by international guidelines. It was concluded that determining values is fundamental to recommend this background as scientific database for research in the area of hydrosedimentology of this site and also as a way of environmental management of the watershed of this municipality.

Looming Scarcity of Phosphate Rock and Intensification of Soil Phosphorus Research

In recent years, many researchers have claimed that world reserves of rock phosphate were getting depleted at an alarming rate, putting us on the path to scarcity of that essential resource within the next few decades. Others have claimed that such alarmist forecasts were frequent in the past and have always been proven unfounded, making it likely that the same will be true in the future. Both viewpoints are directly relevant to the level of funding devoted to research on the use of phosphate fertilizers. In this short essay, it is argued that information about future reserves of P or any other resource are impossible to predict, and therefore that the threat of a possible depletion of P reserves should not be used as a key motivation for an intensification of research on soil P. However, there are other, more compelling reasons, both geopolitical and environmental, to urgently step up our collective efforts to devise agricultural practices that make better use of P than is the case at the moment.

The Effect of a threshold proportional reinsurance strategy on ruin probabilities

[spa] En un modelo de Poisson compuesto, definimos una estrategia de reaseguro proporcional de umbral : se aplica un nivel de retención k1 siempre que las reservas sean inferiores a un determinado umbral b, y un nivel de retención k2 en caso contrario. Obtenemos la ecuación íntegro-diferencial para la función Gerber-Shiu, definida en Gerber-Shiu -1998- en este modelo, que nos permite obtener las expresiones de la probabilidad de ruina y de la transformada de Laplace del momento de ruina para distintas distribuciones de la cuantía individual de los siniestros. Finalmente presentamos algunos resultados numéricos.

La probabilidad de supervivencia en un modelo con reaseguro proporcional de umbral

[spa] En este artículo presentamos una nueva estrategia de reaseguro, a la que denominamos estrategia de reaseguro umbral, que actúa de forma diferente en función del nivel de las reservas. Así, para unos niveles de las reservas inferiores a un determinado nivel, el gestor decide aplicar un reaseguro proporcional, y para niveles superiores, al considerar que se ha alcanzado cierta solvencia en la cartera, opta por no ceder ningún porcentaje del riesgo. El análisis del efecto de la introducción del reaseguro umbral sobre la probabilidad de supervivencia, y su comparación con el reaseguro proporcional y la opción de no reasegurar, nos permite hallar estrategias de reaseguro equivalentes desde el punto de vista de la solvencia. Palabras clave: teoría del riesgo, reaseguro de umbral, reaseguro proporcional, probabilidad de supervivencia.

Reparto de dividendos en una cartera de seguros no vida : obtención de la barrera constante óptima bajo criterios económico-actuariales

Consideramos el proceso clásico del riesgo modificado con la introducción de una barrera dedividendos constante, de tal forma que cuando el proceso de reservas alcanza la barrera se pagandividendos hasta la ocurrencia del siguiente siniestro. En la literatura actuarial se plantea el cálculo de W(u,b) definida como la esperanza del valor actual, a un tanto constante, de los dividendos repartidos hasta el momento de ruina en un modelo con barrera constante b(t)=b. Se calcula el valor de la barrera que maximiza dicha esperanza. En este trabajo se realizan dos contribuciones en este tema. En primer lugar se profundiza en el análisis de W(u,b), proponiéndose combinaciones de las variables de control que proporcionan resultados económicamente óptimos. En segundo lugar se definen nuevas medidas relacionadas con W(u,b) que la complementan y pueden ayudar al decisor en el proceso de definición de las variables de control.

Discrete analysis of dividend payments in a non-life insurance portfolio

The process of free reserves in a non-life insurance portfolio as defined in the classical model of risk theory is modified by the introduction of dividend policies that set maximum levels for the accumulation of reserves. The first part of the work formulates the quantification of the dividend payments via the expectation of their current value under diferent hypotheses. The second part presents a solution based on a system of linear equations for discrete dividend payments in the case of a constant dividend barrier, illustrated by solving a specific case.

High-altitude exposure in patients with cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and practical recommendations.

Because of the development of modern transportation facilities, an ever rising number of individuals including many patients with preexisting diseases visit high-altitude locations (>2500 m). High-altitude exposure triggers a series of physiologic responses intended to maintain an adequate tissue oxygenation. Even in normal subjects, there is enormous interindividual variability in these responses that may be further amplified by environmental factors such as cold temperature, low humidity, exercise, and stress. These adaptive mechanisms, although generally tolerated by most healthy subjects, may induce major problems in patients with preexisting cardiovascular diseases in which the functional reserves are already limited. Preexposure assessment of patients helps to minimize risk and detect contraindications to high-altitude exposure. Moreover, the great variability and nonpredictability of the adaptive response should encourage physicians counseling such patients to adapt a cautionary approach. Here, we will briefly review how high-altitude adjustments may interfere with and aggravate/decompensate preexisting cardiovascular diseases. Moreover, we will provide practical recommendations on how to investigate and counsel patients with cardiovascular disease desiring to travel to high-altitude locations.