Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs

Sea temperatures in many tropical regions have increased by almost 1 degrees C over the past 100 years, and are currently increasing at similar to 1-2 degrees C per century. Coral bleaching occurs when the thermal tolerance of corals and their photosynthetic symbionts (zooxanthellae) is exceeded. Mass coral bleaching has occurred in association with episodes of elevated sea temperatures over the past 20 years and involves the loss of the zooxanthellae following chronic photoinhibition. Mass bleaching has resulted in significant losses of live coral in many parts of the world. This paper considers the biochemical, physiological and ecological perspectives of coral bleaching. It also uses the outputs of four runs from three models of global climate change which simulate changes in sea temperature and hence how the frequency and intensity of bleaching events will change over the next 100 years. The results suggest that the thermal tolerances of reef-building corals are likely to be exceeded every year within the next few decades. Events as severe as the 1998 event, the worst on record, are likely to become commonplace within 20 years. Most information suggests that the capacity for acclimation by corals has already been exceeded, and that adaptation will be too slow to avert a decline in the quality of the world's reefs. The rapidity of the changes that are predicted indicates a major problem for tropical marine ecosystems and suggests that unrestrained warming cannot occur without the loss and degradation of coral reefs on a global scale.

Is there change over time in the season-of-birth effect for schizophrenia? Data from the southern hemisphere

The aim of this paper is to examine distributions of schizophrenia and general population births over time in order to determine whether (a) the pattern has changed over time, (b) any pattern was similar for both males and females, and (c) whether there is any indication that there is any relationship between the changes in pattern between schizophrenia and general population births. Birth month and year for 7807 individuals with ICD8/9 schizophrenia were gained from the Queensland Mental Health Statistical System for 1914-1975. Monthly births for the general population in Queensland for the same period were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For each decade we obtained two comparisons, (1) between two 'seasons' (summer-autumn/winter-spring), and (2) between the third (coldest) quarter and the remaining quarters. Based on expected contrasts from general population proportions, odds ratios and their confidence intervals were used to analyse these comparisons for all subjects, and for males and females separately. The seasonality found in our previous studies was again evident (OR 1.09; 95% CI= 1.01-1.17). However there was no significant change in its pattern over time either for the total group or for males and females separately. When the general population births alone were examined using the same contrasts, seasonality was also observed, but here there were fluctuations over time. These results suggest that exposures linked to changes in general population births over time should be examined in disorders such as schizophrenia which demonstrate seasonality in births. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Prey capture and accommodation in the sandlance, Limnichthyes fasciatus (Creediidae; Teleostei)

The eyes of the sandlance, Limnichthyes fasciatus (Creediidae. Teleostei) move independently and possess a refractive cornea, a convexiclivate fovea and a non-spherical lens giving rise to a wide separation of the nodal point from the axis of rotation of the eye much like that of a chameleon. To investigate this apparent convergence of the visual optics in these phylogenetically disparate species, we examine feeding behaviour and accommodation in the sandlance with special reference to the possibility that sandlances use accommodation as a depth cue to judge strike length. Frame-by-frame analysis of over 2000 strikes show a 100% success rate. Explosive strikes are completed in 50 ms over prey distances of four body lengths. Close-up video confirms that successful strikes can be initiated monocularly (both normally and after monocular occlusion) showing that binocular cues are not necessary to judge the length of a strike. Additional means of judging prey distance may also be derived from parallax information generated by rotation of the eye as suggested for chameleons. Using photorefraction on anaesthetised sandlances, accommodative changes were induced with acetylcholine and found to range between 120 D and 180 D at a speed of 600-720 D s(-1). The large range of accommodation (25% of the total power) is also thought to be mediated by corneal accommodation where the contraction of a unique cornealis muscle acts to change the corneal curvatures.

The effects of change in lead stimulus modality on the modulation of acoustic blink startle

In two experiments we investigated the effect of generalized orienting induced by changing the modality of the lead stimulus on the modulation of blink reflexes elicited by acoustic stimuli. In Experiment 1 (n = 32), participants were presented with acoustic or visual change stimuli after habituation training with tactile lead stimuli. In Experiment 2 (n = 64), modality of the lead stimulus (acoustic vs. visual) was crossed with experimental condition (change vs. no change). Lead stimulus change resulted in increased electrodermal orienting in both experiments. Blink latency shortening and blink magnitude facilitation increased from habituation to change trials regardless of whether the change stimulus was presented in the same or in a different modality as the reflex-eliciting stimulus. These results are not consistent with modality-specific accounts of attentional startle modulation.

Change in the rate of shell deposition and shell microstructure in response to shell borers in the abalone Haliotis rubra

Gastropod shells consist of two crystal types of calcium carbonate, an outer, prismatic calcite layer and an inner nacreous layer made of aragonite. In cross-section, the nacre of the nacreous layer appears to have a regular brick-like microstructure composed of thin laminae of aragonite crystals, separated by very thin sheets of protein (Lutz and Rhoads, 1980; Nakahara, 1983). In abalone (Genus, Haliotis) and other gastropods, thin layers of non-lamellar pigmented material occur within the nacre and have been termed alternatively, fine lines, growth rings or growth lines (Shepherd et al., 1995). It has been suggested that these pigmented layers are small, prismatic, calcite layers (Shepherd and Avalos-Borja, 1997; Zaremba et al., 1996) but investigations using a Raman laser in Haliotis rubra show that they contain aragonite rather than calcite (Hawkes et al, 1996). Day and Fleming (1992) suggest that the occurrence of pigmented layers is correlated with regular exogenous cues such as reproduction or temperature changes and indeed in some species, pigmented layers in the shell can be used to age abalone (review: Shepherd and Triantafillos, 1997). However, McShane and Smith (1992) suggest that pigmented layers can occur irregularly and therefore may be unreliable indicators of age.

The sit-up: complex kinematics and muscle activity in voluntary axial movement

This paper describes the kinematics and muscle activity associated with the standard sit-up, as a first step in the investigation of complex motor coordination. Eight normal human subjects lay on a force table and performed at least 15 sit-ups, with the arms across the chest and the legs straight and unconstrained. Several subjects also performed sit-ups with an additional weight added to the head. Support surface forces were recorded to calculate the location of the center of pressure and center of gravity; conventional motion analysis was used to measure segmental positions; and surface EMG was recorded from eight muscles. While the sit-up consists of two serial components, 'trunk curling' and 'footward pelvic rotation', it can be further subdivided into five phases, based on the kinematics. Phases I and II comprise trunk curling. Phase I consists of neck and upper trunk flexion, and phase II consists of lumbar trunk lifting. Phase II corresponds to the point of peak muscle contraction and maximum postural instability, the 'critical point' of the sit-up. Phases III-V comprise footward pelvic rotation. Phase III begins with pelvic rotation towards the feet. phase W with leg lowering, and phase V with contact between the legs and the support surface. The overall pattern of muscle activity was complex with times of EMG onset, peak activity, offset, and duration differing for different muscles. This complex pattern changed qualitatively from one phase to the next, suggesting that the roles of different muscles and, as a consequence, the overall form of coordination, change during the sit-up. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variation in distribution of mangroves in Moreton Bay, subtropical Australia: a comparison of pattern metrics and change detection analyses based on aerial photographs

An assessment of the changes in the distribution and extent of mangroves within Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia, was carried out. Two assessment methods were evaluated: spatial and temporal pattern metrics analysis, and change detection analysis. Currently, about 15,000 ha of mangroves are present in Moreton Bay. These mangroves are important ecosystems, but are subject to disturbance from a number of sources. Over the past 25 years, there has been a loss of more than 3800 ha, as a result of natural losses and mangrove clearing (e.g. for urban and industrial development, agriculture and aquaculture). However, areas of new mangroves have become established over the same time period, offsetting these losses to create a net loss of about 200 ha. These new mangroves have mainly appeared in the southern bay region and the bay islands, particularly on the landward edge of existing mangroves. In addition, spatial patterns and species composition of mangrove patches have changed. The pattern metrics analysis provided an overview of mangrove distribution and change in the form of single metric values, while the change detection analysis gave a more detailed and spatially explicit description of change. An analysis of the effects of spatial scales on the pattern metrics indicated that they were relatively insensitive to scale at spatial resolutions less than 50 m, but that most metrics became sensitive at coarser resolutions, a finding which has implications for mapping of mangroves based on remotely sensed data. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Late Quaternary Milankovitch-scale climatic change and variability and its impact on monsoonal Australasia

Four pollen and charcoal records derived from marine cores around the northern perimeter of Australia are examined to provide a regional picture of patterns, causes and impacts of climate change over the last 100-300 ka. The availability of radiocarbon dates and oxygen isotope records for the cores provides primary chronological control. Spectral analysis of components of these records demonstrates an overall importance of Milankovitch frequencies with clear glacial-interglacial cyclicity dominated by variation in precipitation. In addition, a number of pollen taxa, as well as charcoal particles, exhibit a 30 ka frequency that is considered, from its relationship with biomass burning and with results of past modelling, to reflect changes in the intensity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Pollen components of all records show a decline, frequently stepwise, in more fire-sensitive vegetation and its replacement with more fire-tolerant vegetation. There is some evidence that this trend is linked to an onset or general increase in ENSO activity and perhaps also to variation in monsoon activity dating from about 300 ka BP that was caused by changes to oceanic circulation within the Indonesian region. The trend may have accelerated within the last 45 ka due to burning by indigenous people. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Management are aliens! Rumours during organisational change

Rumors collected from a large public hospital undergoing change were content analyzed, and a typology comprising the following five broad types of change-related rumors was developed: rumors about changes to job and working conditions, nature of organizational change, poor change management, consequences of the change for organizational performance, and gossip-rumors. Rumors were also classified as positive or negative on the basis of their content. As predicted, negative rumors were more prevalent than positive rumors. Finally, employees reporting negative rumors also reported more change-related stress as compared to those who reported positive rumors and those who did not report any rumors. The authors propose that rumors be treated as verbal symbols and expressions of employee concerns during organizational change.

Infiltration from surface and buried point sources: The average wetting water content

The assumption in analytical solutions for flow from surface and buried point sources of an average water content, (θ) over bar, behind the wetting front is examined. Some recent work has shown that this assumption fitted some field data well. Here we calculated (θ) over bar using a steady state solution based on the work by Raats [1971] and an exponential dependence of the diffusivity upon the water content. This is compared with a constant value of (θ) over bar calculated from an assumption of a hydraulic conductivity at the wetting front of 1 mm day(-1) and the water content at saturation. This comparison was made for a wide range of soils. The constant (θ) over bar generally underestimated (θ) over bar at small wetted radii and overestimated (θ) over bar at large radii. The crossover point between under and overestimation changed with both soil properties and flow rate. The largest variance occurred for coarser texture soils at low-flow rates. At high-flow rates in finer-textured soils the use of a constant (θ) over bar results in underestimation of the time for the wetting front to reach a particular radius. The value of (θ) over bar is related to the time at which the wetting front reaches a given radius. In coarse-textured soils the use of a constant value of (θ) over bar can result in an error of the time when the wetting front reaches a particular radius, as large as 80% at low-flow rates and large radii.

Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall`s law

This paper contributes to the literature on balance-of-payments constrained growth by investigating how structural change identified with changes in the sectoral composition of exports and imports affects the external constraint We test both the original and a multisectoral version of Thirlwall`s law for a sample of Latin American and Asian countries The original Thirlwall s law is found to hold for all sample countries except South Korea, whereas the multisectoral analogue holds for all of them As the sectoral composition of exports and imports is found to matter for growth we analyze the evolution of each country`s weighted trade income elasticities

Diagnosis of Organizational Soft Problems in a Peruvian Financial Institution by Systemic Thinking

Managing financial institutions in an underdeveloped economic context has become a real challenge nowadays. In order to reach the organization`s planned goals, they have to deal with structural, behavioral and informational problems. From the systemic point of view, this situation gets even worse when the company does not present organizational boundaries and a cohesive identification for their stakeholders. Thus, European countries have some special financial lines in order to help the development of micro credit in Latin communities in an attempt to help the local economy. However, institutions like Caixa dos Andes in Peru present management problems when dealing with this complexity. Based on this, how can the systemic eye help in the diagnosis of soft problems of a Peruvian financial company? This study aims to diagnose soft problems of a Peruvian financial company based on soft variables like identity, communication and autonomy and also intends to identify possible ways to redesign its basic framework. The (VSM--Viable System Model) method from Beer (1967), applied in this diagnostic study, was used in a practical way as a management tool for organizations` analysis and planning. By describing the VSM`s five systems, the creation of a systemic vision or a total vision is possible, showing the organization`s complexity from the inside. Some company`s soft problems like double control, inefficient use of physical and human resources, low information flows, slowness, etc. The VSM presented an organizational diagnosis indicating effective solutions that do integrate its five systems.

GREEN MANAGEMENT, CLIMATE CHANGE AND SMALL BUSINESS IN BRAZIL: IMPLICATIONS FOR TRAINING AND EDUCATION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

This paper presents the results of a study on the analysis of training needs regarding environmental (green) management and climate change topics in micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in Brazil and its implications on education for sustainable development. It reports on an e-mail survey of Brazilian small enterprises, whose results indicate that they are indeed interested in environmental management and climate change topics in an education for sustainable development context. The study indicates that proposals for courses on environmental management and climate change should follow a systemic perspective and take sustainable development into account. By applying factor analysis, it was found that the topics of interest can be grouped into thematic modules, which can be useful in the design of training courses for the top management leaders of those companies.