968 resultados para Chance.


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PRESENTED by the Escapists, Boy Girl Wall tells the unlikely yet strangely inevitable story of the series of events by which an odd assortment of people, objects and chance occurrences conspire to bring together lonely neighbours Thomas and Alethea...

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I welcomed this chance to look back over the past nine years of third sector research in Australia and the opportunity to participate in this gathering to chart another nine years. There will be two parts to this paper. Part one will review what I said in 1991 (Lyons, 1991) and summarise what has happened since to see if my hopes were realised. Part two will attempt to sketch a framework for a research agenda, informed by the same motivation as my 1991 paper. It will conclude with some reflections about how to build a stronger institutional framework to sustain third sector research...

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This chapter argues that higher education institutions (HEIs) must direct coordinated, whole-of-institution attention to changing, both culturally and structurally, the fundamental and prevailing character of the first-year experience (FYE). It leverages evidence from the sector(Nelson, Kift and Clarke, 2011), from research-led practice in our institution (for example, Kift, Nelson and Clarke, 2010; Nelson et al.,in press) and from research conducted under an Australian Learning and Teaching Council Senior Fellowship (Kift, 2009a, 2009b, 2009c) to assert that student engagement and success should not be left to chance, particularly those aspects such as curriculum design and enactment that are within our institutional control.

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Aim: Whilst motorcycle rider training is commonly incorporated into licensing programs in many developed nations, little empirical support has been found in previous research to prescribe it as an effective road safety countermeasure. It has been posited that the lack of effect of motorcycle rider training on crash reduction may, in part, be due to the predominant focus on skills-based training with little attention devoted to addressing attitudes and motives that influence subsequent risky riding. However, little past research has actually endeavoured to measure attitudinal and motivational factors as a function of rider training. Accordingly, this study was undertaken to assess the effect of a commercial motorcycle rider training program on psychosocial factors that have been shown to influence risk taking by motorcyclists. Method: Four hundred and thirty-eight motorcycle riders attending a competency-based licence training course in Brisbane, Australia, voluntarily participated in the study. A self-report questionnaire adapted from the Rider Risk Assessment Measure (RRAM) was administered to participants at the commencement of training, then again at the conclusion of training. Participants were informed of the independent nature of the research and that their responses would in no way effect their chance of obtaining a licence. To minimise potential demand characteristics, participants were instructed to seal completed questionnaires in envelopes and place them in a sealed box accessible only by the research team (i.e. not able to be viewed by instructors). Results: Significant reductions in the propensity for thrill seeking and intentions to engage in risky riding in the next 12 months were found at the end of training. In addition, a significant increase in attitudes to safety was found. Conclusions: These findings indicate that rider training may have a positive short-term influence on riders’ propensity for risk taking. However, such findings must be interpreted with caution in regard to the subsequent safety of riders as these factors may be subject to further influence once riders are licensed and actively engage with peers during on-road riding. This highlights a challenge for road safety education / training programs in regard to the adoption of safety practices and the need for behavioural follow-up over time to ascertain long-term effects. This study was the initial phase of an ongoing program of research into rider training and risk taking framed around Theory of Planned Behaviour concepts. A subsequent 12 month follow-up of the study participants has been undertaken with data analysis pending.

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Due to grave potential human, environmental and economical consequences of collisions at sea, collision avoidance has become an important safety concern in navigation. To reduce the risk of collisions at sea, appropriate collision avoidance actions need to be taken in accordance with the regulations, i.e., International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea. However, the regulations only provide qualitative rules and guidelines, and therefore it requires navigators to decide on collision avoidance actions quantitatively by using their judgments which often leads to making errors in navigation. To better help navigators in collision avoidance, this paper develops a comprehensive collision avoidance decision making model for providing whether a collision avoidance action is required, when to take action and what action to be taken. The model is developed based on three types of collision avoidance actions, such as course change only, speed change only, and a combination of both. The model has potential to reduce the chance of making human error in navigation by assisting navigators in decision making on collision avoidance actions.

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Spatial navigation requires the processing of complex, disparate and often ambiguous sensory data. The neurocomputations underpinning this vital ability remain poorly understood. Controversy remains as to whether multimodal sensory information must be combined into a unified representation, consistent with Tolman's "cognitive map", or whether differential activation of independent navigation modules suffice to explain observed navigation behaviour. Here we demonstrate that key neural correlates of spatial navigation in darkness cannot be explained if the path integration system acted independently of boundary (landmark) information. In vivo recordings demonstrate that the rodent head direction (HD) system becomes unstable within three minutes without vision. In contrast, rodents maintain stable place fields and grid fields for over half an hour without vision. Using a simple HD error model, we show analytically that idiothetic path integration (iPI) alone cannot be used to maintain any stable place representation beyond two to three minutes. We then use a measure of place stability based on information theoretic principles to prove that featureless boundaries alone cannot be used to improve localization above chance level. Having shown that neither iPI nor boundaries alone are sufficient, we then address the question of whether their combination is sufficient and - we conjecture - necessary to maintain place stability for prolonged periods without vision. We addressed this question in simulations and robot experiments using a navigation model comprising of a particle filter and boundary map. The model replicates published experimental results on place field and grid field stability without vision, and makes testable predictions including place field splitting and grid field rescaling if the true arena geometry differs from the acquired boundary map. We discuss our findings in light of current theories of animal navigation and neuronal computation, and elaborate on their implications and significance for the design, analysis and interpretation of experiments.

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STUDY QUESTION: What is the self-reported use of in vitro fertilization (IVF) and ovulation induction (OI) in comparison with insurance claims by Australian women aged 28–36 years? SUMMARY ANSWER: The self-reported use of IVF is quite likely to be valid; however, the use of OI is less well reported. WHAT IS KNOWN AND WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: Population-based research often relies on the self-reported use of IVF and OI because access to medical records can be difficult and the data need to include sufficient personal identifying information for linkage to other data sources. There have been few attempts to explore the reliability of the self-reported use of IVF and OI using the linkage to medical insurance claims for either treatment. STUDY DESIGN: This prospective, population-based, longitudinal study included the cohort of women born during 1973–1978 and participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) (n = 14247). From 1996 to 2009, participants were surveyed up to five times. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Participants self-reported their use of IVF or OI in two mailed surveys when aged 28–33 and 31–36 years (n = 7280), respectively. This study links self-report survey responses and claims for treatment or medication from the universal national health insurance scheme (i.e. Medicare Australia). MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Comparisons between self-reports and claims data were undertaken for all women consenting to the linkage (n = 3375). The self-reported use of IVF was compared with claims for OI for IVF (Kappa, K = 0.83), oocyte collection (K = 0.82), sperm preparation (K = 0.83), intracytoplasmic sperm injection (K = 0.40), fresh embryo transfers (K = 0.82), frozen embryo transfers (K = 0.64) and OI for IVF medication (K = 0.17). The self-reported use of OI was compared with ovulation monitoring (K = 0.52) and OI medication (K = 0.71). BIAS, CONFOUNDING AND OTHER REASONS FOR CAUTION: There is a possibility of selection bias due to the inclusion criteria for participants in this study: (1) completion of the last two surveys in a series of five and (2) consent to the linkage of their responses with Medicare data. GENERALIZABILITY TO OTHER POPULATIONS: The results are relevant to questionnaire-based research studies with infertile women in developed countries. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): ALSWH is funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing. This research is funded by a National Health and Medical Research Council Centre of Research Excellence grant.

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Worldwide, there are few large-scale epidemiological studies on infertility. In Australia, population-based research on infertility is limited to a few small-scale studies. Therefore, the prevalence of infertility and unmet need for specialist medical advice and treatment cannot be estimated reliably. Women who have used assisted reproductive technologies (ART) are recorded in treatment registries. However, there are many infertile women who are excluded from these clinical populations because they neither seek advice nor use treatment. The thesis was based on a biopsychosocial model of health and used the methods of reproductive epidemiology to address the lack of national data on the prevalence of infertility in Australia. Firstly, numbers of births and pregnancy losses were investigated in two generations of women participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health (ALSWH). The ALSWH is a broad-ranging, longitudinal examination of biological, psychological and social factors that impact on women’s health and wellbeing. Women from three age cohorts were randomly sampled from the population using the universal public health insurance (i.e., Medicare) database and ALSWH participants were representative of the female population. However, the studies in the thesis only involved data from two cohorts. The younger cohort were born in 1973-78 and completed up to four mailed surveys between 1996 (when they were aged 18-23 years, n=14247) and 2006 (28-33 years, n=9145). The mid-aged cohort were born in 1946-51 and completed four mailed surveys between 1996 (when they were aged 45-50 years n=13715) and 2004 (53-58 years, n=10905). Compared to other studies that focus on outcomes of single pregnancies, these studies included all pregnancy outcomes by developing comprehensive reproductive histories for each woman. Pregnancy outcomes included birth, miscarriage, stillbirth, termination and ectopic pregnancy. Women in the youngest cohort (born in 1973-78) were only just reaching their peak childbearing years and many (44%) had yet to report their first pregnancy outcome. Women from the mid-aged cohort (born 1946-51) had completed their reproductive lives and 92% were able to report on their lifetime pregnancy outcomes. Pregnancy losses, especially miscarriage, were common for both generations of women. Secondly, the prevalence of infertility, seeking medical advice and using treatment was identified for these two generations of women. For the older generation, the lifetime prevalence of infertility and demand for treatment was investigated in the context of the specialist medical services which became available circa 1980. By this time, however, most of these older women had already been pregnant and completed their families. For women who experienced infertility (11%), their options for advice and treatment were limited and less than half (42%) had used any treatment. More recently for the younger generation of women, who were aged 28-33 years in 2006, specialist advice and treatment were extensively available. Among women who had tried to conceive or had been pregnant (n=5936), 17% had experienced infertility and the majority (72%) were able to access medical advice. However, after seeking advice only half of these infertile women had used treatment with fertility hormones or in vitro fertilisation (IVF). Overall for infertile women aged up to 33 years, only one-third had used these treatments. Thirdly, the barriers to accessing medical advice and using treatment for infertility were identified for women aged less than 34 years. Among a community sample of infertile women aged 28-33 years (ALSWH participants), self-reported depression was found to be a barrier to accessing medical advice. The characteristics of these infertile women in the community who had (n=121) or had not (n=110) used treatment were compared to infertile women aged 27-33 years (n=59) attending four fertility clinics. Compared to infertile women in the community, living in major cities and having private health insurance were associated with early use of treatment for infertility at specialist clinics by women aged <34 years. In contrast to most clinical studies of IVF, the final study reported in the thesis took into account repeated IVF cycles and the impact of women’s individual histories on IVF outcomes. Among 121 infertile women (aged 27-46 years) who had 286 IVF cycles, older age and prolonged use of the oral contraceptive pill were associated with fewer eggs collected. Further, women in particular occupations had lower proportions of eggs fertilised normally than women in other occupational groups. These studies form the first large-scale epidemiological examination of infertility in Australia. The finding that two-thirds of women with infertility had not used treatment indicates that there is an unmet need for specialist treatment in women aged less than 34 years. However, barriers to accessing treatment prevent women using ART at a younger age when there is a higher chance of pregnancy.

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In the era of global knowledge economy, urban regions—seeking to increase their competitive edge, become destinations for talent and investment, and provide prosperity and quality of life to their inhabitants—have little chance achieving their development goals without forming effective knowledge-based urban development strategies. This paper aims to shed light on the planning and development processes of the knowledge-based urban development phenomenon with respect to the construction of knowledge community precincts aimed at making space for knowledge generation and place for knowledge communities. Following to a thorough review of the literature on knowledge-based urban development and strategic asset-based planning, the paper undertakes policy and best practice analyses to learn from the planning and development processes of internationally renowned knowledge community precincts—from Copenhagen, Eindhoven and Singapore. In the light of the analyses findings, this paper scrutinises major Australian knowledge community precinct initiatives—from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane—to better understand the dynamics of national practices, and benchmark them against the international best practice cases. The paper concludes with a discussion on the study findings and recommendations for successfully establishing space and place for both knowledge economy and society in Australian cities.

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The aim of children's vision screenings is to detect visual problems that are common in this age category through valid and reliable tests. Nevertheless, the cost effectiveness of paediatric vision screenings, the nature of the tests included in the screening batteries and the ideal screening age has been the cause of much debate in Australia and worldwide. Therefore, the purpose of this review is to report on the current practice of children's vision screenings in Australia and other countries, as well as to evaluate the evidence for and against the provision of such screenings. This was undertaken through a detailed investigation of peer-reviewed publications on this topic. The current review demonstrates that there is no agreed vision screening protocol for children in Australia. This appears to be a result of the lack of strong evidence supporting the benefit of such screenings. While amblyopia, strabismus and, to a lesser extent refractive error, are targeted by many screening programs during pre-school and at school entry, there is less agreement regarding the value of screening for other visual conditions, such as binocular vision disorders, ocular health problems and refractive errors that are less likely to reduce distance visual acuity. In addition, in Australia, little agreement exists in the frequency and coverage of screening programs between states and territories and the screening programs that are offered are ad hoc and poorly documented. Australian children stand to benefit from improved cohesion and communication between jurisdictions and health professionals to enable an equitable provision of validated vision screening services that have the best chance of early detection and intervention for a range of paediatric visual problems.

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In the era of a global knowledge economy, urban regions that seek to increase their competitive edge, become destinations for talent and investment and provide prosperity and high quality of life to their inhabitants have little chance of achieving these goals without forming effective knowledge-based urban development strategies. The research reported in this paper aims to address the questions of how a knowledge-based urban development performance measurement can be undertaken and the value contribution of such measurement. The paper focuses on the city of Helsinki. This empirical study analytically investigates Helsinki’s performance from the lens of knowledge-based urban development by comparing this urban region with eight international competitors, Boston, San Francisco, Birmingham, Manchester, Melbourne, Sydney, Toronto, and Vancouver. The results of the study not only reveal a clearer understanding of Helsinki’s benchmarked performance and competitive edge considering the regional policy context along with strategic directions in strengthening its international standing and competitiveness but also provide useful insights for other urban regions that aspire to such development.

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Road traffic crashes have emerged as a major health problem around the world. Road crash fatalities and injuries have been reduced significantly in developed countries, but they are still an issue in low and middle-income countries. The World Health Organization (WHO, 2009) estimates that the death toll from road crashes in low- and middle-income nations is more than 1 million people per year, or about 90% of the global road toll, even though these countries only account for 48% of the world's vehicles. Furthermore, it is estimated that approximately 265,000 people die every year in road crashes in South Asian countries and Pakistan stands out with 41,494 approximately deaths per year. Pakistan has the highest rate of fatalities per 100,000 population in the region and its road crash fatality rate of 25.3 per 100,000 population is more than three times that of Australia's. High numbers of road crashes not only cause pain and suffering to the population at large, but are also a serious drain on the country's economy, which Pakistan can ill-afford. Most studies identify human factors as the main set of contributing factors to road crashes, well ahead of road environment and vehicle factors. In developing countries especially, attention and resources are required in order to improve things such as vehicle roadworthiness and poor road infrastructure. However, attention to human factors is also critical. Human factors which contribute to crashes include high risk behaviours like speeding and drink driving, and neglect of protective behaviours such as helmet wearing and seat belt wearing. Much research has been devoted to the attitudes, beliefs and perceptions which contribute to these behaviours and omissions, in order to develop interventions aimed at increasing safer road use behaviours and thereby reducing crashes. However, less progress has been made in addressing human factors contributing to crashes in developing countries as compared to the many improvements in road environments and vehicle standards, and this is especially true of fatalistic beliefs and behaviours. This is a significant omission, since in different cultures in developing countries there are strong worldviews in which predestination persists as a central idea, i.e. that one's life (and death) and other events have been mapped out and are predetermined. Fatalism refers to a particular way in which people regard the events that occur in their lives, usually expressed as a belief that an individual does not have personal control over circumstances and that their lives are determined through a divine or powerful external agency (Hazen & Ehiri, 2006). These views are at odds with the dominant themes of modern health promotion movements, and present significant challenges for health advocates who aim to avert road crashes and diminish their consequences. The limited literature on fatalism reveals that it is not a simple concept, with religion, culture, superstition, experience, education and degree of perceived control of one's life all being implicated in accounts of fatalism. One distinction in the literature that seems promising is the distinction between empirical and theological fatalism, although there are areas of uncertainty about how well-defined the distinction between these types of fatalism is. Research into road safety in Pakistan is scarce, as is the case for other South Asian countries. From the review of the literature conducted, it is clear that the descriptions given of the different belief systems in developing countries including Pakistan are not entirely helpful for health promotion purposes and that further research is warranted on the influence of fatalism, superstition and other related beliefs in road safety. Based on the information available, a conceptual framework is developed as a means of structuring and focusing the research and analysis. The framework is focused on the influence of fatalism, superstition, religion and culture on beliefs about crashes and road user behaviour. Accordingly, this research aims to provide an understanding of the operation of fatalism and related beliefs in Pakistan to assist in the development and implementation of effective and culturally appropriate interventions. The research examines the influence of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs on risky road use in Pakistan and is guided by three research questions: 1. What are the perceptions of road crash causation in Pakistan, in particular the role of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs? 2. How does fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs influence road user behaviour in Pakistan? 3. Do fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs work as obstacles to road safety interventions in Pakistan? To address these questions, a qualitative research methodology was developed. The research focused on gathering data through individual in-depth interviewing using a semi-structured interview format. A sample of 30 participants was interviewed in Pakistan in the cities of Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The participants included policy makers (with responsibility for traffic law), experienced police officers, religious orators, professional drivers (truck, bus and taxi) and general drivers selected through a combination of purposive, criterion and snowball sampling. The transcripts were translated from Urdu and analysed using a thematic analysis approach guided by the conceptual framework. The findings were divided into four areas: attribution of crash causation to fatalism; attribution of road crashes to beliefs about superstition and malicious acts; beliefs about road crash causation linked to popular concepts of religion; and implications for behaviour, safety and enforcement. Fatalism was almost universally evident, and expressed in a number of ways. Fate was used to rationalise fatal crashes using the argument that the people killed were destined to die that day, one way or another. Related to this was the sense of either not being fully in control of the vehicle, or not needing to take safety precautions, because crashes were predestined anyway. A variety of superstitious-based crash attributions and coping methods to deal with road crashes were also found, such as belief in the role of the evil eye in contributing to road crashes and the use of black magic by rivals or enemies as a crash cause. There were also beliefs related to popular conceptions of religion, such as the role of crashes as a test of life or a source of martyrdom. However, superstitions did not appear to be an alternative to religious beliefs. Fate appeared as the 'default attribution' for a crash when all other explanations failed to account for the incident. This pervasive belief was utilised to justify risky road use behaviour and to resist messages about preventive measures. There was a strong religious underpinning to the statement of fatalistic beliefs (this reflects popular conceptions of Islam rather than scholarly interpretations), but also an overlap with superstitious and other culturally and religious-based beliefs which have longer-standing roots in Pakistani culture. A particular issue which is explored in more detail is the way in which these beliefs and their interpretation within Pakistani society contributed to poor police reporting of crashes. The pervasive nature of fatalistic beliefs in Pakistan affects road user behaviour by supporting continued risk taking behaviour on the road, and by interfering with public health messages about behaviours which would reduce the risk of traffic crashes. The widespread influence of these beliefs on the ways that people respond to traffic crashes and the death of family members contribute to low crash reporting rates and to a system which appears difficult to change. Fate also appeared to be a major contributing factor to non-reporting of road crashes. There also appeared to be a relationship between police enforcement and (lack of) awareness of road rules. It also appears likely that beliefs can influence police work, especially in the case of road crash investigation and the development of strategies. It is anticipated that the findings could be used as a blueprint for the design of interventions aimed at influencing broad-spectrum health attitudes and practices among the communities where fatalism is prevalent. The findings have also identified aspects of beliefs that have complex social implications when designing and piloting driver intervention strategies. By understanding attitudes and behaviours related to fatalism, superstition and other related concepts, it should be possible to improve the education of general road users, such that they are less likely to attribute road crashes to chance, fate, or superstition. This study also underscores the understanding of this issue in high echelons of society (e.g., policy makers, senior police officers) as their role is vital in dispelling road users' misconceptions about the risks of road crashes. The promotion of an evidence or scientifically-based approach to road user behaviour and road safety is recommended, along with improved professional education for police and policy makers.

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This collaborative project by Daniel Mafe and Andrew Brown, one of a number in they have been involved in together, conjoins painting and digital sound into a single, large scale, immersive exhibition/installation. The work as a whole acts as an interstitial point between contrasting approaches to abstraction: the visual and aural, the digital and analogue are pushed into an alliance and each works to alter perceptions of the other. For example, the paintings no longer mutely sit on the wall to be stared into. The sound seemingly emanating from each work shifts the viewer’s typical visual perception and engages their aural sensibilities. This seems to make one more aware of the objects as objects – the surface of each piece is brought into scrutiny – and immerses the viewer more viscerally within the exhibition. Similarly, the sonic experience is focused and concentrated spatially by each painted piece even as the exhibition is dispersed throughout the space. The sounds and images are similar in each local but not identical, even though they may seem to be the same from casual interaction, closer attention will quickly show this is not the case. In preparing this exhibition each artist has had to shift their mode of making to accommodate the other’s contribution. This was mainly done by a process of emptying whereby each was called upon to do less to the works they were making and to iterate the works toward a shared conception, blurring notions of individual imagination while maintaining material authorship. Empting was necessary to enable sufficient porosity where each medium allowed the other entry to its previously gated domain. The paintings are simple and subtle to allow the odd sonic textures a chance to work on the viewer’s engagement with them. The sound remains both abstract, using noise-like textures, and at a low volume to allow the audience’s attention to wander back and forth between aspects of the works.

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Nigam v Harm (No 2) [2011] WASCA 221, Western Australia Court of Appeal, 18 October 2011