Case studies of the effects of a total solar eclipse on weather with varying degrees of cloud cover using a local numerical weather prediction model

The importance of renewable energies for the European electricity market is growing rapidly. This presents transmission grids and the power market in general with new challenges which stem from the higher spatiotemporal variability of power generation. This uncertainty is due to the fact that renewable power production results from weather phenomena, thus making it difficult to plan and control. We present a sensitivity study of a total solar eclipse in central Europe in March. The weather in Germany and Europe was modeled using the German Weather Service's local area models COSMO-DE and COSMO-EU, respectively (http://www.cosmo-model.org/). The simulations were performed with and without considering a solar eclipse for the following 3 situations: 1. An idealized, clear-sky situation for the entire model area (Europe, COSMO-EU) 2. A real weather situation with mostly cloudy skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) 3. A real weather situation with mostly clear skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) The data should help to evaluate the effects of a total solar eclipse on the weather in the planetary boundary layer. The results show that a total solar eclipse has significant effects particularly on the main variables for renewable energy production, such as solar irradiation and temperature near the ground.

The albedo of junipers measured in summer 2009 at the Niederhorn, Switzerland

This field study was performed to obtain a defensible value for the surface reflectivity (albedo) of Juniper shrublands that could be used by Brigitta Ammann to quantitatively assess the role of Juniper shrublands in surface energy balance feedbacks to climate after the last glaciation. Measurements were carried out over a Juniper shrubland at mount Niederhorn, Switzerland (North of the Lake of Thun) during summer 2009 over a Juniper shrubland that was considered to present the most representative surface cover to estimate albedo for a modeling exercise that addresses biotic responses to the rapid warming around 14.685 ka BP at Gerzensee (Central Europe). For a detailed description of this data set see "Further details:"

Stable Water Isotopologue data collected during HCCT-2010

Cloud samples for the isotopic analysis were collected in the framework of the Hill Cap Cloud Thuringia 2010 (HCCT-2010) campaign on Schmücke (50° 39'N/ 10° 46'E, 937 m a.s.l.; Germany) in September and October 2010 with a three-stage Caltech Active Strand Cloudwater Collector (CASCC) during 13 different cloud events with a temporal resolution of 1 to 3 hours. In a first step, we ensured that no additional fractionation occurred during sampling with the CASCC. The d values of the three sizes classes of the CASCC (4 µm to 16 µm, 16 µm to 22 µm and >22 µm) did not differ significantly, revealing that the cloud droplets of different sizes quickly equilibrate their delta value with the one of the surrounding vapor. delta values in the cloud droplets varied from -77 per mil to -15 per mil in d2H and from -12.1 per mil to -3.9 per mil in d18O and were fitted by d2H =7.8*d18O +13*10**-3. delta values decreased with temperature as well as towards the end of the campaign, representing a seasonal trend which is known from d values in precipitation. The deuterium excess of the cloud samples was generally higher than the Local Meteoric Water Line of the closest GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) station. Rain decreases its deuterium excess during falling through an unsaturated air column, while the cloud droplets conserve the deuterium excess of the initial evaporation and thus have been found to be a good indicator for the airmass source region: higher deuterium excess was measured for polar air masses and lower deuterium excess for Mediterranean air masses. Changes in d values during one cloud event were up to 3.6 per mil (d2H) and 0.23 per mil (d18O), except for frontal passages, which were associated with increases of ~6 per mil per hour (d2H) and ~0.6 per mil per hour (d18O). Using a box model, we showed that the influence of condensation only was able to explain the variation in the isotope signal of two cloud passages. Consequently, we deduced that the water vapor "feeding" the cloud advected the measured changes. A trajectory analysis and moisture source diagnostic revealed that it is very likely that the variations were either related to rain out along the trajectories or to meteorological changes in the moisture source region. This was the first study using stable water isotopologues in cloud water manifesting their potential in the context of atmospheric water vapor circulation.

Age determination and pollen profile of sediment core Trentelmoor, Peine, northern Germany

The filling up of the lake which existed in the basin of the Trentelmoor (40 km E of Hannover, Germany) - in Preboreal times was finished 2000 years ago. Since then fen vegetation has covered the former lake's surface. The postglacial development of the vegetation follows the pattern which is typical of Central Europe. However, due to the poorness of the soils around the Trentelmoor, the frequencies of some tree species differ. Beech for example never reached - for the benefit of oak - that importance which this tree species usually gains on better soils. Human impact becomes recognisable in the upper Neolithic for the first time. The area has been settled continuously, but with changing intensities, throughout the last 3000 years. When the manuscript of this paper went to press the results of two radiocarbon age determinations only were completed. An additional three determinations were completed somewhat later. See the accompanying table for results.

Pollen and macroremains from profiles from site Osterholz and Elm

The biostratigraphic classification of the Pleistocene in north-western and central Europe is still insufficiently known, in spite of numerous geological and vegetation-history investigations. The question is not even clear, for example, how often a warm-period vegetation with thermophilous trees such as Quercus, Ulmus, Tilia, Carpinus etc could develop here. In past years, on the basis of several geological and vegetation-history findings, suspicion has often been expressed that some of the classical stages of the Pleistocene could include more warm periods than heretofore assumed, and as a result of recent investigations the period between the Waal and Holstein interglacials seems to include at least two warm periods, of which the Cromer is one. This paper contributes to this problem. The interglacial sediments coming from the Elm-Mountains near Brunswick and from the Osterholz near Elze - both within the limits of the German Mittelgebirge - were investigated by pollen analysis. In both cases a Pinus-Betula zone and a QM zone were found. The vegetation development of the Pinus-Betula zone is characterized in both sequences by the early appearance of Picea. Because of strong local influence at the Osterholz a detailed correlation is difficult. However, vegetation development at the time of the QM zone at both sites was similar; it is especially characterized by the facts that Ulmus clearly migrated to the site earlier than Quercus and was very abundant throughout this time. Furthermore, both diagrams show very low amounts of Corylus. The interglacial of the Osterholz shows in addition to the above; a Carpinus-QM-Picea-zone in which Eucommia reaches a relative high value and in the upper of which Azolla filiculoides was also found. The similarity of vegetation development justifies acceptance of the same age for the occurrences. A comparison of the vegetation development at the Elm and the Osterholz with those of the Eem, Holstein, Waal, and Tegelen warm periods as well as with all the Cromer sites so far investigated shows that only a correlation with the Cromer Complex is possible. This correlation is supported by the geologic relations in the Osterholz (the deposit is overlain by Elster till). Therefore the till-like material with Scandinavian rock fragments underlying the deposit at Elm is of particular interest. The 'Rhume' interglacial beds at Bilshausen, only 60 km south of Osterholz, is also assigned to the Cromer complex, but the two deposits cannot be of the same age because the vegetation development differs. Therefore the Cromer complex must include at least two warm periods. Further conclusions about the relative stratigraphic position of these two occurrences and correlations of other Cromer sites are at this time not possible, however.

World distribution of land cover changes, model in NetCDF format

The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES) for pre-Bronze age demographic, technological and economic change. Using scaling parameters from the History Database of the Global Environment as well as GLUES-simulated population density and subsistence style, the land requirement for growing crops is estimated. The intrusion of cropland into potentially forested areas is translated into carbon loss due to deforestation with the dynamic global vegetation model VECODE. The land demand in important Prehistoric growth areas - converted from mostly forested areas - led to large-scale regional (country size) deforestation of up to 11% of the potential forest. In total, 29 Gt carbon were lost from global forests between 10 000 BC and 2000 BC and were replaced by crops; this value is consistent with other estimates of Prehistoric deforestation. The generation of realistic (agri-)cultural development trajectories at a regional resolution is a major strength of GLUES. Most of the pre-Bronze age deforestation is simulated in a broad farming belt from Central Europe via India to China. Regional carbon loss is, e.g., 5 Gt in Europe and the Mediterranean, 6 Gt on the Indian subcontinent, 18 Gt in East and Southeast Asia, or 2.3 Gt in subsaharan Africa.

Simulated agricultural subsistence, timing of transition, and percentage of immigrant farmers

Farming and herding were introduced to Europe from the Near East and Anatolia; there are, however, considerable arguments about the mechanisms of this transition. Were it the people who moved and either outplaced, or admixed with, the indigenous hunter-gatherer groups? Or was it material and information that moved---the Neolithic Package---consisting of domesticated plants and animals and the knowledge of their use? The latter process is commonly referred to as cultural diffusion and the former as demic diffusion. Despite continuous and partly combined efforts by archaeologists, anthropologists, linguists, palaeontologists and geneticists, a final resolution of the debate has not yet been reached. In the present contribution we interpret results from the Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). GLUES is a mathematical model for regional sociocultural development, embedded in the geoenvironmental context, during the Holocene. We demonstrate that the model is able to realistically hindcast the expansion speed and the inhomogeneous space-time evolution of the transition to agropastoralism in western Eurasia. In contrast to models that do not resolve endogenous sociocultural dynamics, our model describes and explains how and why the Neolithic advanced in stages. We uncouple the mechanisms of migration and information exchange and also of migration and the spread of agropastoralism. We find that: (1) An indigenous form of agropastoralism could well have arisen in certain Mediterranean landscapes, but not in Northern and Central Europe, where it depended on imported technology and material. (2) Both demic diffusion by migration and cultural diffusion by trade may explain the western European transition equally well. (3) Migrating farmers apparently contribute less than local adopters to the establishment of agropastoralism. Our study thus underlines the importance of adoption of introduced technologies and economies by resident foragers.

Record of pollen, silt and greyscale stack from the Eifel Laminated Sediment Archive (ELSA)

Investigating the processes that led to the end of the last interglacial period is relevant for understanding how our ongoing interglacial will end, which has been a matter of much debate. A recent ice core from Greenland demonstrates climate cooling from 122,000 years ago driven by orbitally controlled insolation, with glacial inception at 118,000 years ago. Here we present an annually resolved, layer-counted record of varve thickness, quartz grain size and pollen assemblages from a maar lake in the Eifel (Germany), which documents a late Eemian aridity pulse lasting 468 years with dust storms, aridity, bushfire and a decline of thermophilous trees at the time of glacial inception. We interpret the decrease in both precipitation and temperature as an indication of a close link of this extreme climate event to a sudden southward shift of the position of the North Atlantic drift, the ocean current that brings warm surface waters to the northern European region. The late Eemian aridity pulse occurred at a 65° N July insolation of 416 W/m**2, close to today's value of 428 W/m**2, and may therefore be relevant for the interpretation of present-day climate variability.