Monetary policy rules and estimated reaction functions for the European Central Bank

This thesis studies the interest-rate policy of the ECB by estimating monetary policy rules using real-time data and central bank forecasts. The aim of the estimations is to try to characterize a decade of common monetary policy and to look at how different models perform at this task.The estimated rules include: contemporary Taylor rules, forward-looking Taylor rules, nonlinearrules and forecast-based rules. The nonlinear models allow for the possibility of zone-like preferences and an asymmetric response to key variables. The models therefore encompass the most popular sub-group of simple models used for policy analysis as well as the more unusual non-linear approach. In addition to the empirical work, this thesis also contains a more general discussion of monetary policy rules mostly from a New Keynesian perspective. This discussion includes an overview of some notable related studies, optimal policy, policy gradualism and several other related subjects. The regression estimations are performed with either least squares or the generalized method of moments depending on the requirements of the estimations. The estimations use data from both the Euro Area Real-Time Database and the central bank forecasts published in ECB Monthly Bulletins. These data sources represent some of the best data that is available for this kind of analysis. The main results of this thesis are that forward-looking behavior appears highly prevalent, but that standard forward-looking Taylor rules offer only ambivalent results with regard to inflation. Nonlinear models are shown to work, but on the other hand do not have a strong rationale over a simpler linear formulation. However, the forecasts appear to be highly useful in characterizing policy and may offer the most accurate depiction of a predominantly forward-looking central bank. In particular the inflation response appears much stronger while the output response becomes highly forward-looking as well.

Adaptive optimal load balancing in a nonhomogeneous multiserver system with a central job scheduler

A model comprising several servers, each equipped with its own queue and with possibly different service speeds, is considered. Each server receives a dedicated arrival stream of jobs; there is also a stream of generic jobs that arrive to a job scheduler and can be individually allocated to any of the servers. It is shown that if the arrival streams are all Poisson and all jobs have the same exponentially distributed service requirements, the probabilistic splitting of the generic stream that minimizes the average job response time is such that it balances the server idle times in a weighted least-squares sense, where the weighting coefficients are related to the service speeds of the servers. The corresponding result holds for nonexponentially distributed service times if the service speeds are all equal. This result is used to develop adaptive quasi-static algorithms for allocating jobs in the generic arrival stream when the load parameters are unknown. The algorithms utilize server idle-time measurements which are sent periodically to the central job scheduler. A model is developed for these measurements, and the result mentioned is used to cast the problem into one of finding a projection of the root of an affine function, when only noisy values of the function can be observed

A proteomic view of probiotic Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG

Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG is a probiotic bacterium that is known worldwide. Since its discovery in 1985, the health effects and biology of this health-promoting strain have been researched at an increasing rate. However, knowledge of the molecular biology responsible for these health effects is limited, even though research in this area has continued to grow since the publication of the whole genome sequence of L. rhamnosus GG in 2009. In this thesis, the molecular biology of L. rhamnosus GG was explored by mapping the changes in protein levels in response to diverse stress factors and environmental conditions. The proteomics data were supplemented with transcriptome level mapping of gene expression. The harsh conditions of the gastro-intestinal tract, which involve acidic conditions and detergent-like bile acids, are a notable challenge to the survival of probiotic bacteria. To simulate these conditions, L. rhamnosus GG was exposed to a sudden bile stress, and several stress response mechanisms were revealed, among others various changes in the cell envelope properties. L. rhamnosus GG also responded in various ways to mild acid stress, which probiotic bacteria may face in dairy fermentations and product formulations. The acid stress response of L. rhamnosus GG included changes in central metabolism and specific responses related to the control of intracellular pH. Altogether, L. rhamnosus GG was shown to possess a large repertoire of mechanisms for responding to stress conditions, which is a beneficial character of a probiotic organism. Adaptation to different growth conditions was studied by comparing the proteome level responses of L. rhamnosus GG to divergent growth media and to different phases of growth. Comparing different growth phases revealed that the metabolism of L. rhamnosus GG is modified markedly during shift from the exponential to the stationary phase of growth. These changes were seen both at proteome and transcriptome levels and in various different cellular functions. When the growth of L. rhamnosus GG in a rich laboratory medium and in an industrial whey-based medium was compared, various differences in metabolism and in factors affecting the cell surface properties could be seen. These results led us to recommend that the industrial-type media should be used in laboratory studies of L. rhamnosus GG and other probiotic bacteria to achieve a similar physiological state for the bacteria as that found in industrial products, which would thus yield more relevant information about the bacteria. In addition, an interesting phenomenon of protein phosphorylation was observed in L. rhamnosus GG. Phosphorylation of several proteins of L. rhamnosus GG was detected, and there were hints that the degree of phosphorylation may be dependent on the growth pH.

Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach

We make an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS for A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the model projections, 39% of forest grids are likely to undergo vegetation type change under the A2 scenario and 34% under the B2 scenario by the end of this century. However, in many forest dominant states such as Chattisgarh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh up to 73%, 67% and 62% of forested grids are projected to undergo change. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is projected to increase by 68.8% and 51.2% under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, and soil organic carbon (SOC) by 37.5% for A2 and 30.2% for B2 scenario. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modeling, we present a forest vulnerability index for India which is based on the observed datasets of forest density, forest biodiversity as well as model predicted vegetation type shift estimates for forested grids. The vulnerability index suggests that upper Himalayas, northern and central parts of Western Ghats and parts of central India are most vulnerable to projected impacts of climate change, while Northeastern forests are more resilient. Thus our study points to the need for developing and implementing adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of forests to projected climate change.

Climate change and forests in India: adaptation opportunities and challenges

Climate change is projected to lead to shift of forest types leading to irreversible damage to forests by rendering several species extinct and potentially affecting the livelihoods of local communities and the economy. Approximately 47% and 42% of tropical dry deciduous grids are projected to undergo shifts under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios respectively, as opposed to less than 16% grids comprising of tropical wet evergreen forests. Similarly, the tropical thorny scrub forest is projected to undergo shifts in majority of forested grids under A2 (more than 80%) as well as B2 scenarios (50% of grids). Thus the forest managers and policymakers need to adapt to the ecological as well as the socio-economic impacts of climate change. This requires formulation of effective forest management policies and practices, incorporating climate concerns into long-term forest policy and management plans. India has formulated a large number of innovative and progressive forest policies but a mechanism to ensure effective implementation of these policies is needed. Additional policies and practices may be needed to address the impacts of climate change. This paper discusses an approach and steps involved in the development of an adaptation framework as well as policies, strategies and practices needed for mainstreaming adaptation to cope with projected climate change. Further, the existing barriers which may affect proactive adaptation planning given the scale, accuracy and uncertainty associated with assessing climate change impacts are presented.

Forest policies and programs affecting vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

Due to large scale afforestation programs and forest conservation legislations, India's total forest area seems to have stabilized or even increased. In spite of such efforts, forest fragmentation and degradation continues, with forests being subject to increased pressure due to anthropogenic factors. Such fragmentation and degradation is leading to the forest cover to change from very dense to moderately dense and open forest and 253 km(2) of very dense forest has been converted to moderately dense forest, open forest, scrub and non-forest (during 2005-2007). Similarly, there has been a degradation of 4,120 km(2) of moderately dense forest to open forest, scrub and non-forest resulting in a net loss of 936 km(2) of moderately dense forest. Additionally, 4,335 km(2) of open forest have degraded to scrub and non-forest. Coupled with pressure due to anthropogenic factors, climate change is likely to be an added stress on forests. Forest sector programs and policies are major factors that determine the status of forests and potentially resilience to projected impacts of climate change. An attempt is made to review the forest policies and programs and their implications for the status of forests and for vulnerability of forests to projected climate change. The study concludes that forest conservation and development policies and programs need to be oriented to incorporate climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.

Symmetry adaptation of correlated states in the valence bond basis

Symmetry?adapted linear combinations of valence?bond (VB) diagrams are constructed for arbitrary point groups and total spin S using diagrammatic VB methods. VB diagrams are related uniquely to invariant subspaces whose size reflects the number of group elements; their nonorthogonality leads to sparser matrices and is fully incorporated into a binary integer representation. Symmetry?adapated linear combinations of VB diagrams are constructed for the 1764 singlets of a half?filled cube of eight sites, the 2.8 million ??electron singlets of anthracene, and for illustrative S?0 systems.

Nestedness pattern in stream diatom assemblages of central Western Ghats

Community diversity and the population abundance of a particular group of species are controlled by immediate environment, inter-and intra-species interactions, landscape conditions, historical events and evolutionary processes. Nestedness is a measure of order in an ecological system, referring to the order in which the number of species is related to area or other factors. In this study we have studied the nestedness pattern in stream diatom assemblages in 24 stream sites of central Western Ghats, and report 98 taxa from the streams of central Western Ghats region. The communities show highly significant nested pattern. The Mantel test of matrix revealed a strong relationship between species assemblages and environmental conditions at the sites. A significant relationship between species assemblage and environmental condition was observed. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that environmental conditions differed markedly across the sampling sites, with the first three components explaining 78% of variance. Species composition of diatoms is significantly correlated with environmental distance across geographical extent. The current pattern suggests that micro-environment at regional levels influences the species composition of epilithic diatoms in streams. The nestedness shown by the diatom community was highly significant, even though it had a high proportion of idiosyncratic species, characterized with high numbers of cosmopolitan species, whereas the nested species were dominated by endemic species. PCA identifies ionic parameters and nutrients as the major features which determine the characteristics of the sampling sites. Hence the local water quality parameters are the major factors in deciding the diatom species assemblages.

Central Limit Theorem for truncated heavy tailed Banach valued random vectors

In this paper the question of the extent to which truncated heavy tailed random vectors, taking values in a Banach space, retain the characteristic features of heavy tailed random vectors, is answered from the point of view of the central limit theorem.

Low-power pipelined LMS adaptive filter architectures with minimal adaptation delay

The use of delayed coefficient adaptation in the least mean square (LMS) algorithm has enabled the design of pipelined architectures for real-time transversal adaptive filtering. However, the convergence speed of this delayed LMS (DLMS) algorithm, when compared with that of the standard LMS algorithm, is degraded and worsens with increase in the adaptation delay. Existing pipelined DLMS architectures have large adaptation delay and hence degraded convergence speed. We in this paper, first present a pipelined DLMS architecture with minimal adaptation delay for any given sampling rate. The architecture is synthesized by using a number of function preserving transformations on the signal flow graph representation of the DLMS algorithm. With the use of carry-save arithmetic, the pipelined architecture can support high sampling rates, limited only by the delay of a full adder and a 2-to-1 multiplexer. In the second part of this paper, we extend the synthesis methodology described in the first part, to synthesize pipelined DLMS architectures whose power dissipation meets a specified budget. This low-power architecture exploits the parallelism in the DLMS algorithm to meet the required computational throughput. The architecture exhibits a novel tradeoff between algorithmic performance (convergence speed) and power dissipation. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights resented.

Surface chemical characterisation of Paenibacillus polymyxa before and after adaptation to sulfide minerals

A heterotroph Paenibacillus polymyxa bacteria is adapted to pyrite, chalcopyrite, galena and sphalerite minerals by repeated subculturing the bacteria in the presence of the mineral until their growth characteristics became similar to the growth in the absence of mineral. The unadapted and adapted bacterial surface have been chemically characterised by zeta-potential, contact angle, adherence to hydrocarbons and FT-IR spectroscopic studies. The surface free energies of bacteria have been calculated by following the equation of state and surface tension component approaches. The aim of the present paper is to understand the changes in surface chemical properties of bacteria during adaptation to sulfide minerals and the projected consequences in bioflotation and bioflocculation processes. The mineral-adapted cells became more hydrophilic as compared to unadapted cells. There are no significant changes in the surface charge of bacteria before and after adaptation, and all the bacteria exhibit an iso-electric point below pH 2.5. The contact angles are observed to be more reliable for hydrophobicity assessment than the adherence to hydrocarbons. The Lifschitz–van der Waals/acid–base approach to calculate surface free energy is found to be relevant for mineral–bacteria interactions. The diffuse reflectance FT-IR absorbance bands for all the bacteria are the same illustrating similar surface chemical composition. However, the intensity of the bands for unadapted and adapted cells is significantly varied and this is due to different amounts of bacterial secretions underlying different growth conditions.