Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. METHODS: We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. RESULTS: We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. CONCLUSIONS: We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.

Case-control analysis of paternal age and trisomic anomalies.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether older paternal age increases the risk of fathering a pregnancy with Patau (trisomy 13), Edwards (trisomy 18), Klinefelter (XXY) or XYY syndrome. DESIGN: Case-control: cases with each of these syndromes were matched to four controls with Down syndrome from within the same congenital anomaly register and with maternal age within 6 months. SETTING: Data from 22 EUROCAT congenital anomaly registers in 12 European countries. PARTICIPANTS: Diagnoses with observed or (for terminations) predicted year of birth from 1980 to 2005, comprising live births, fetal deaths with gestational age ≥ 20 weeks and terminations after prenatal diagnosis of the anomaly. Data include 374 cases of Patau syndrome, 929 of Edwards syndrome, 295 of Klinefelter syndrome, 28 of XYY syndrome and 5627 controls with Down syndrome. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Odds ratio (OR) associated with a 10-year increase in paternal age for each anomaly was estimated using conditional logistic regression. Results were adjusted to take account of the estimated association of paternal age with Down syndrome (1.11; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.23). RESULTS: The OR for Patau syndrome was 1.10 (95% CI 0.83 to 1.45); for Edwards syndrome, 1.15 (0.96 to 1.38); for Klinefelter syndrome, 1.35 (1.02 to 1.79); and for XYY syndrome, 1.99 (0.75 to 5.26). CONCLUSIONS: There was a statistically significant increase in the odds of Klinefelter syndrome with increasing paternal age. The larger positive associations of Klinefelter and XYY syndromes with paternal age compared with Patau and Edwards syndromes are consistent with the greater percentage of these sex chromosome anomalies being of paternal origin.

Transrectal specimen extraction after laparoscopic left colectomy: a case-matched study.

Aim  Avoiding 'mini-laparotomy' to extract a colectomy specimen may decrease wound complications and further improve recovery after laparoscopic surgery. The aim of this study was to develop a new technique for transrectal specimen extraction (TRSE) and to compare it with conventional laparoscopy (CL) for left sided colectomy. Method  Eleven patients with benign disease requiring either sigmoid or left colon resection underwent TRSE. The unfired circular stapler was inserted transanally and used as a guide to suture-close the recto-sigmoid junction laparoscopically and as a handle to pull the sutured sigmoid through the opened rectum inside a laparoscopic camera bag. The anvil was inserted into the lumen of the intussuscepted sigmoid and pushed to the level of the anastomosis. The anastomosis was fashioned end-to-end in the first patients and side-to-end in the following patients to improve safety. Intra-operative and postoperative outcomes of patients undergoing TRSE were compared with those of a group of 20 patients undergoing CL, who were matched for type of resection, body mass index and age. Results  The procedure was successful in all but the first patient who was converted to conventional laparoscopic colectomy without any additional morbidity. Two patients in the end-to-end anastomosis group, but none in the side-to-end group, developed peri-anastomotic sepsis. Compared with CL, patients undergoing TRSE did not show any significant differences in operative time, recovery or morbidity. Conclusion  Transrectal specimen extraction after left colectomy using the circular stapler technique is feasible. A side-to-end anastomosis appears safer than an end-to-end anastomosis. Further studies are needed to explore the potential advantages of this procedure over CL.

Body mass index and risk of head and neck cancer in a pooled analysis of case-control studies in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Head and neck cancer (HNC) risk is elevated among lean people and reduced among overweight or obese people in some studies; however, it is unknown whether these associations differ for certain subgroups or are influenced by residual confounding from the effects of alcohol and tobacco use or by other sources of biases. METHODS: We pooled data from 17 case-control studies including 12 716 cases and the 17 438 controls. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for associations between body mass index (BMI) at different ages and HNC risk, adjusted for age, sex, centre, race, education, tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption. RESULTS: Adjusted ORs (95% CIs) were elevated for people with BMI at reference (date of diagnosis for cases and date of selection for controls) 25.0-30.0 kg/m(2) (0.52, 0.44-0.60) and BMI >/=30 kg/m(2) (0.43, 0.33-0.57), compared with BMI >18.5-25.0 kg/m(2). These associations did not differ by age, sex, tumour site or control source. Although the increased risk among people with BMI 25 kg/m(2) was present only in smokers and drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: In our large pooled analysis, leanness was associated with increased HNC risk regardless of smoking and drinking status, although reverse causality cannot be excluded. The reduced risk among overweight or obese people may indicate body size is a modifier of the risk associated with smoking and drinking. Further clarification may be provided by analyses of prospective cohort and mechanistic studies.

Prospective study of insulin-like growth factor-I, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 3, genetic variants in the IGF1 and IGFBP3 genes and risk of coronary artery disease.

Although experimental studies have suggested that insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) and its binding protein IGFBP-3 might have a role in the aetiology of coronary artery disease (CAD), the relevance of circulating IGFs and their binding proteins in the development of CAD in human populations is unclear. We conducted a nested case-control study, with a mean follow-up of six years, within the EPIC-Norfolk cohort to assess the association between circulating levels of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 and risk of CAD in up to 1,013 cases and 2,055 controls matched for age, sex and study enrolment date. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, we found no association between circulating levels of IGF-I or IGFBP-3 and risk of CAD (odds ratio: 0.98 (95% Cl 0.90-1.06) per 1 SD increase in circulating IGF-I; odds ratio: 1.02 (95% Cl 0.94-1.12) for IGFBP-3). We examined associations between tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tSNPs) at the IGF1 and IGFBP3 loci and circulating IGF-I and IGFBP-3 levels in up to 1,133 cases and 2,223 controls and identified three tSNPs (rs1520220, rs3730204, rs2132571) that showed independent association with either circulating IGF-I or IGFBP-3 levels. In an assessment of 31 SNPs spanning the IGF1 or IGFBP3 loci, none were associated with risk of CAD in a meta-analysis that included EPIC-Norfolk and eight additional studies comprising up to 9,319 cases and 19,964 controls. Our results indicate that IGF-I and IGFBP-3 are unlikely to be importantly involved in the aetiology of CAD in human populations.

History of cholelithiasis and cancer risk in a network of case-control studies.

Background We analyzed the relationship between cholelithiasis and cancer risk in a network of case-control studies conducted in Italy and Switzerland in 1982-2009. Methods The analyses included 1997 oropharyngeal, 917 esophageal, 999 gastric, 23 small intestinal, 3726 colorectal, 684 liver, 688 pancreatic, 1240 laryngeal, 6447 breast, 1458 endometrial, 2002 ovarian, 1582 prostate, 1125 renal cell, 741 bladder cancers, and 21 284 controls. The odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by multiple logistic regression models. Results The ORs for subjects with history of cholelithiasis compared with those without were significantly elevated for small intestinal (OR = 3.96), prostate (OR = 1.36), and kidney cancers (OR = 1.57). These positive associations were observed ≥10 years after diagnosis of cholelithiasis and were consistent across strata of age, sex, and body mass index. No relation was found with the other selected cancers. A meta-analysis including this and three other studies on the relation of cholelithiasis with small intestinal cancer gave a pooled relative risk of 2.35 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.82-3.03]. Conclusion In subjects with cholelithiasis, we showed an appreciably increased risk of small intestinal cancer and suggested a moderate increased risk of prostate and kidney cancers. We found no material association with the other cancers considered.

Relationship between obesity and the risk of clinically significant depression: Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity has been shown to be associated with depression and it has been suggested that higher body mass index (BMI) increases the risk of depression and other common mental disorders. However, the causal relationship remains unclear and Mendelian randomisation, a form of instrumental variable analysis, has recently been employed to attempt to resolve this issue. AIMS: To investigate whether higher BMI increases the risk of major depression. METHOD: Two instrumental variable analyses were conducted to test the causal relationship between obesity and major depression in RADIANT, a large case-control study of major depression. We used a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in FTO and a genetic risk score (GRS) based on 32 SNPs with well-established associations with BMI. RESULTS: Linear regression analysis, as expected, showed that individuals carrying more risk alleles of FTO or having higher score of GRS had a higher BMI. Probit regression suggested that higher BMI is associated with increased risk of major depression. However, our two instrumental variable analyses did not support a causal relationship between higher BMI and major depression (FTO genotype: coefficient -0.03, 95% CI -0.18 to 0.13, P = 0.73; GRS: coefficient -0.02, 95% CI -0.11 to 0.07, P = 0.62). CONCLUSIONS: Our instrumental variable analyses did not support a causal relationship between higher BMI and major depression. The positive associations of higher BMI with major depression in probit regression analyses might be explained by reverse causality and/or residual confounding.

A randomized double-blind control study of early intra-coronary autologous bone marrow cell infusion in acute myocardial infarction: the REGENERATE-AMI clinical trial?.

AIMS: Clinical trials suggest that intracoronary delivery of autologous bone marrow-derived cells (BMCs) 1-7 days post-acute myocardial infarction (AMI) may improve left ventricular (LV) function. Earlier time points have not been evaluated. We sought to determine the effect of intracoronary autologous BMC on LV function when delivered within 24 h of successful reperfusion therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: A multi-centre phase II randomized, double-blind, and placebo-controlled trial. One hundred patients with anterior AMI and significant regional wall motion abnormality were randomized to receive either intracoronary infusion of BMC or placebo (1:1) within 24 h of successful primary percutaneous intervention (PPCI). The primary endpoint was the change in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) between baseline and 1 year as determined by advanced cardiac imaging. At 1 year, although LVEF increased compared with baseline in both groups, the between-group difference favouring BMC was small (2.2%; 95% confidence interval, CI: -0.5 to 5.0; P = 0.10). However, there was a significantly greater myocardial salvage index in the BMC-treated group compared with placebo (0.1%; 95% CI: 0.0-0.20; P = 0.048). Major adverse events were rare in both treatment groups. CONCLUSION: The early infusion of intracoronary BMC following PPCI for patients with AMI and regional wall motion abnormality leads to a small non-significant improvement in LVEF when compared with placebo; however, it may play an important role in infarct remodelling and myocardial salvage. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00765453 and EudraCT 2007-002144-16.

Venous thromboembolism and obstruction after pacemaker implantation. - A Prospective Study of 150 Consecutive Cardiac Pacing Device Implantations

Background: Pacemaker implantation (PMI) may predispose to venous thromboembolism (VTE) and obstruction (VO). This prospective study aimed at quantifying changes in venous calibers, and at determining the incidence of symptomatic and asymptomatic VTE/VO after PMI. Further goals included an assessment of the role of transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) in the diagnosis of lead-related central venous thrombi (CVT), and determination of predictors for VTE/VO. Methods: 150 (mean age 67; 61% male) consecutive patients with first PMI were enrolled and followed for 6 months. Contrast venography was performed at baseline and 6 months after PMI to measure venous diameters, and to detect stenosis, total occlusions and thrombi. TEE was conducted in 66 patients. Based on clinical suspicion, work-up for pulmonary embolism (PE) or acute deep vein thrombosis (DVT) were performed as needed. A total of 50 cases underwent longer-term (mean 2.4 years) follow-up venography. All cases with VTE/VO during the initial 6 months, and their matched controls, were selected for a case-control study focused on possible predictive role of laboratory and patient-related factors for the development of VTE/VO. Results: 10 (7 %) patients were found to have baseline venous abnormalities (e.g. 8 obstructions). Mean venous diameters diminished significantly during the first 6 months, but no further reduction occurred in late follow-up. New VO was discovered in 19 patients (14 %; 14 stenosis, 5 total occlusions; all asymptomatic). Small non-obstructive thrombi were found in 20/140 (14 %) 6-month venograms. TEE at 6 months disclosed CVT in 6 (9 %) patients. One (0.7 %) patient had acute symptomatic upper-extremity DVT, and PE was discovered in 5/150 (3.3 %) patients during the first 6 months with no further cases thereafter. At 6 months, the total number of cases with VTE/VO amounted to 47 (31.3 %). Additionally, the later 2-year venograms (n=50) disclosed 4 (8 %) total occlusions and 1 (2 %) stenosis. In the case-control study, no parameter was predictive of venous end-points as a single variable, but there appeared to be significant clustering of traditional VTE risk-factors among the cases. Laboratory parameters showed a definite acute hypercoagulative state induced by PMI, but its degree did not predict subsequent development of VTE/VO. Conclusions: This study shows that VTE/VO is relatively common after PMI with an overall incidence of at least 30 %. Although the majority of the lesions are asymptomatic and clinically benign, cases of PE were also encountered, and totally occluded veins may hamper future upgrading or replacement of pacing system. Venous complications seem difficult to prognosticate as firm predictors were not identified from a wide range of parameters analyzed in this study, although clustering of classic VTE risk factors may be a predisposing factor. Parameters related to implantation procedure or pacing systems and the severity of implantation-induced trauma did not emerge as predictors.

Transfer pricing documentation differences in Finland and China - Case company study

This Master’s Thesis deals with the topic of transfer pricing documentation in Finland and China. The goal of the research is to find what kind of differences exist in a single case company’s transfer pricing documentation when following Chinese or Finnish transfer pricing regulations. The study is carried out as a case study research. The theoretical framework consists of information from different transfer pricing topics and transfer pricing documentation regulations in China and Finland. The main research material was the case company’s transfer pricing documents with the support of open discus-sion with one of the case company’s employees. The study compared the 2009 and 2010 documents. The 2009 document was done based on the Finnish method while the 2010 document was based on the Chinese documentation principles. The conclusion made is that the content of the documents was heavily similar, while the main differences come in the way the content is presented and the level of detail used in the documents.

Major Sport Event Operational Planning Issues and Strategies: A Multi-Case Delphi Study

This study examined the operational planning, implementation and execution issues of major sport events, as well as the mitigation and management strategies used to address these issues, with the aim of determining best practices in sport event operational planning. The three Research Questions were: 1) What can previous major sport events provide to guide the operational management of future events? 2) What are the operational issues that arise in the planning and execution of a major sport event, how are they mitigated and what are the strategies used to deal with these issues? 3) What are the best practices for sport event operational planning and how can these practices aid future events? Data collection involved a modified Delphi technique that consisted of one round of in-depth interviews followed by two rounds of questionnaires. Both data collection and analysis were guided by an adaptation of the work of Parent, Rouillard & Leopkey (2011) with a focus on previously established issue and strategy categories. The results provided a list of Top 26 Prominent Issues and Top 17 Prominent Strategies with additional issue-strategy links that can be used to aid event managers producing future major sport events. The following issue categories emerged as having had the highest impact on previous major sport events that participants had managed: timing, funding and knowledge management. In addition, participants used strategies from the following categories most frequently: other, formalized agreements and communication.

Evolution of clinical and functional results after arthroscopic treatment of Discoid Meniscus. A case series study of 31 cases.

Purpose: To evaluate the evolution of clinical and functional outcomes of symptomatic discoid lateral meniscus treated arthroscopically over time and to investigate the relationship between associated intra-articular findings and outcomes. Methods: Of all patients treated arthroscopically between 1995 and 2010, patients treated for symptomatic discoid meniscus were identified in the hospital charts. Baseline data (demographics, previous trauma of ipsilateral knee, and associated intra-articular findings) and medium term outcome data from clinical follow-up examinations (pain, locking, snapping and instability of the operated knee) were extracted from clinical records. Telephone interviews were conducted at long term in 28 patients (31 knees). Interviews comprised clinical outcomes as well as functional outcomes as assessed by the International Knee Documentation Committee Subjective Knee Evaluation Form (IKDC). Results: All patients underwent arthroscopic partial meniscectomy. The mean follow-up time for data extracted from clinical records was 11 months (SD ± 12). A significant improvement was found for pain in 77% (p<0.001), locking in 13%, (p=0.045) and snapping in 39 % (p<0.005). The mean follow-up time of the telephone interview was 60 months (SD ± 43). Improvement from baseline was generally less after five years than after one year and functional outcomes of the IKDC indicated an abnormal function after surgery (IKDC mean= 84.5, SD ± 20). In some patients, 5 year-outcomes were even worse than their preoperative condition. Nonetheless, 74% of patients perceived their knee function as improved. Furthermore, better results were seen in patients without any associated intra-articular findings. Conclusions: Arthroscopical partial meniscectomy is an effective intervention to relieve symptoms in patients with discoid meniscus in the medium-term; however, results trend to deteriorate over time. A trend towards better outcome for patients with no associated intra-articular findings was observed.