Direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos and optimal embedding of a chaotic time-series

We propose here a local exponential divergence plot which is capable of providing an alternative means of characterizing a complex time series. The suggested plot defines a time-dependent exponent and a ''plus'' exponent. Based on their changes with the embedding dimension and delay time, a criterion for estimating simultaneously the minimal acceptable embedding dimension, the proper delay time, and the largest Lyapunov exponent has been obtained. When redefining the time-dependent exponent LAMBDA(k) curves on a series of shells, we have found that whether a linear envelope to the LAMBDA(k) curves exists can serve as a direct dynamical method of distinguishing chaos from noise.

Direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos

We present a direct and dynamical method to distinguish low-dimensional deterministic chaos from noise. We define a series of time-dependent curves which are closely related to the largest Lyapunov exponent. For a chaotic time series, there exists an envelope to the time-dependent curves, while for a white noise or a noise with the same power spectrum as that of a chaotic time series, the envelope cannot be defined. When a noise is added to a chaotic time series, the envelope is eventually destroyed with the increasing of the amplitude of the noise.

The effect of firm-level contracts on the structure of wages: evidence from matched employer-employee data

Revised: 2006-11

On the strategic equivalence of multiple-choice test scoring rules

A disadvantage of multiple-choice tests is that students have incentives to guess. To discourage guessing, it is common to use scoring rules that either penalize wrong answers or reward omissions. These scoring rules are considered equivalent in psychometrics, although experimental evidence has not always been consistent with this claim. We model students' decisions and show, first, that equivalence holds only under risk neutrality and, second, that the two rules can be modified so that they become equivalent even under risk aversion. This paper presents the results of a field experiment in which we analyze the decisions of subjects taking multiple-choice exams. The evidence suggests that differences between scoring rules are due to risk aversion as theory predicts. We also find that the number of omitted items depends on the scoring rule, knowledge, gender and other covariates.

A Non-Parametric Dimension Test of the Term Structure

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 3, article 6.

A Drift Card Study in Monterey Bay, California, September 1971 to April 1973: Annual Report, Part 4, 1973

Drift cards were released in Monterey Bay, California, to detect seasonal variations in the California Current system, and seasonal and diurnal wind variations in the immediate vicinity of the bay. About 23% of the cards were recovered, although the recovery rate varied from about 5% in the winter to about 60% in the late summer. Drift card speeds ranged from 1 to 8 km/day, in the winter and summer months respectively. Good agreement was observed between geostrophic current, wind, drogue, and drift card data, although drift cards were observed to be primarily wind driven. A weekend bias in drift card recoveries was observed for the entire period of study; however, it was less pronounced for those cards released during the summer months. Two bogus releases were used to estimate the discovery lag time, reported position accuracy, and longshore drift currents. Diurnal winds were observed during a 24-hour study, and indicated daily variations in the wind field may be as important as seasonal changes in moving surface water. The drift card speed was observed to be about 3% of the wind velocity, and 1 m/sec was estimated as the minimum effective wind. The wind factor, ranging from 2.2% to 4.0%, was used to estimate the actual paths of drift cards and to examine the role of diurnal winds in affecting surface water movement. (PDF contains 79 pages)

Test well exploration in the Myakka River Basin area, Florida

In recent years, difficulties encountered in obtaining ground-water supplies with acceptable chemical characteristics in the Myakka River basin area led to the implementation of a test drilling program. Under this program, well drilling and data collection were executed in such a manner that all water-producing zones of the local aquifers, together with the quality and quantity of the water available, were effectively identified. A step-drilling method was utilized which allowed the collection of formation cuttings, water samples, and water-level data, from isolated zones in the well as drilling proceeded. The step drilling procedure is described. The driller's logs, geophysical logs, and chemical quality of water tables are presented.(Document has 66 pages.)