Self-Fulfilling Price Cycles

This paper presents a model of a self-fulfilling price cycle in an asset market. Price oscillates deterministically even though the underlying environment is stationary. The mechanism that we uncover is driven by endogenous variation in the investment horizons of the different market participants, informed and uninformed. On even days, the price is high; on odd days it is low. On even days, informed traders are willing to jettison their good assets, knowing that they can buy them back the next day, when the price is low. The anticipated drop in price more than offsets any potential loss in dividend. Because of these asset sales, the informed build up their cash holdings. Understanding that the market is flooded with good assets, the uninformed traders are willing to pay a high price. But their investment horizon is longer than that of the informed traders: their intention is to hold the assets they purchase, not to resell. On odd days, the price is low because the uninformed recognise that the informed are using their cash holdings to cherry-pick good assets from the market. Now the uninformed, like the informed, are investing short-term. Rather than buy-and-hold as they do with assets purchased on even days, on odd days the uninformed are buying to sell. Notice that, at the root of the model, there lies a credit constraint. Although the informed are flush with cash on odd days, they are not deep pockets. On each cherry that they pick out of the market, they earn a high return: buying cheap, selling dear. However they don't have enough cash to strip the market of cherries and thereby bid the price up.

Optimal Universal and Categorical Benefits with Classification Errors and Imperfect Enforcement

We determine he optimal combination of a universal benefit, B, and categorical benefit, C, for an economy in which individuals differ in both their ability to work - modelled as an exogenous zero quantity constraint on labour supply - and, conditional on being able to work, their productivity at work. C is targeted at those unable to work, and is conditioned in two dimensions: ex-ante an individual must be unable to work and be awarded the benefit, whilst ex-post a recipient must not subsequently work. However, the ex-ante conditionality may be imperfectly enforced due to Type I (false rejection) and Type II (false award) classification errors, whilst, in addition, the ex-post conditionality may be imperfectly enforced. If there are no classification errors - and thus no enforcement issues - it is always optimal to set C>0, whilst B=0 only if the benefit budget is sufficiently small. However, when classification errors occur, B=0 only if there are no Type I errors and the benefit budget is sufficiently small, while the conditions under which C>0 depend on the enforcement of the ex-post conditionality. We consider two discrete alternatives. Under No Enforcement C>0 only if the test administering C has some discriminatory power. In addition, social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make each type error. However, under Full Enforcement C>0 for all levels of discriminatory power. Furthermore, whilst social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make Type I errors, there are certain conditions under which it is increasing in the propensity to make Type II errors. This implies that there may be conditions under which it would be welfare enhancing to lower the chosen eligibility threshold - support the suggestion by Goodin (1985) to "err on the side of kindness".

Multiple Objectives in Monetary Policy: A de Facto Analysis for ‘Advanced’ Countries

A statistical methodology is developed by which realised outcomes can be used to identify, for calendar years between 1974 and 2012, when policy makers in ‘advanced’ economies have successfully pursued single objectives of different kinds, or multiple objectives. A simple criterion is then used to distinguish between multiple objectives pure and simple and multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint. The overall and individual country results which this methodology produces seem broadly plausible. Unconditional and conditional analyses of the inflation and growth associated with different types of objectives reveal that multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint are associated with roughly as good economic performance as the single objective of inflation. A proposal is then made as to how the remit of an inflation-targeting central bank could be adjusted to allow it to pursue other objectives in extremis without losing the credibility effects associated with inflation targeting.

The response of the external finance premium in Asian corporate bond markets to financial characteristics, financial constraints and two financial crises

Empirical investigation of the external finance premium has been conducted on the margin between internal finance and bank borrowing or equities but little attention has been given to corporate bonds, especially for the emerging Asian market. In this paper, we hypothesize that balance sheet indicators of creditworthiness could affect the external finance premium for bonds as they do for premia in other markets. Using bond-specific and firm-specific data for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand during 1995-2009 we find that firms with better financial health face lower external finance premia in all countries. When we introduce firm-level heterogeneity, we show that financial variables appear to be both statistically and quantitatively more important for financially constrained firms. Finally, when we examine the effects of the 1997-98 Asian crisis and the 2007-09 global financial crisis, we find that the sensitivity of the premium is greater for constrained firms during the Asian crisis compared to other times.

Condensation of polyhedric structures onto soap films

We study the existence of solutions to general measure-minimization problems over topological classes that are stable under localized Lipschitz homotopy, including the standard Plateau problem without the need for restrictive assumptions such as orientability or even rectifiability of surfaces. In case of problems over an open and bounded domain we establish the existence of a “minimal candidate”, obtained as the limit for the local Hausdorff convergence of a minimizing sequence for which the measure is lower-semicontinuous. Although we do not give a way to control the topological constraint when taking limit yet— except for some examples of topological classes preserving local separation or for periodic two-dimensional sets — we prove that this candidate is an Almgren-minimal set. Thus, using regularity results such as Jean Taylor’s theorem, this could be a way to find solutions to the above minimization problems under a generic setup in arbitrary dimension and codimension.

Combining food web and species distribution models for improved community projections

The ability to model biodiversity patterns is of prime importance in this era of severe environmental crisis. Species assemblage along environmental gradient is subject to the interplay of biotic interactions in complement to abiotic environmental filtering. Accounting for complex biotic interactions for a wide array of species remains so far challenging. Here, we propose to use food web models that can infer the potential interaction links between species as a constraint in species distribution models. Using a plant-herbivore (butterfly) interaction dataset, we demonstrate that this combined approach is able to improve both species distribution and community forecasts. Most importantly, this combined approach is very useful in rendering models of more generalist species that have multiple potential interaction links, where gap in the literature may be recurrent. Our combined approach points a promising direction forward to model the spatial variation of entire species interaction networks. Our work has implications for studies of range shifting species and invasive species biology where it may be unknown how a given biota might interact with a potential invader or in future climate.

Cytokines and dysregulation of the immune response in human malaria

The dysregulation of the immune response by malaria parasite has been considered as a possible constraint to the effectiveness of malaria vaccination. In spite of the important role interleukin-I (IL-1) in malaria are lacking. We found that only 2 out of 35 subjectswith acute malaria showed increased levels of serum IL-1 alpha by enzyme immunoassay. To assess whether IL-1 could interfere with T- lymphocyte responses, blood mononuclear cells from patients infected with Plasmodium falciparum, P. vivax, or healthy subjects were cultured with phytohemagglutinin, and lymphocyte proliferation measured 72h later by 3H-thymidine incorporation. Our data showed that T-lymphocyte responses are depressed both in P. falciparum (10,500 ñ 2,900) and P. vivax malaria (13,000 ñ 3,300), as compared to that of healthy individuals (27,000 ñ 3,000). Addition of IL-1 partially reserved depression of malaria lymphocytes, but had no effect on normal cells. On the other hand, T-lymphocytes from malaria infected-subjects presented a minimal decrease in proliferation, when cultured in the presence of exogenous PGE2. These data indicate the occurrence of two defects of immunoregulation in malaria: a deficiency of IL-1 production by monocytes/macrophages, and an increased resistance of lymphocytes to the antiproliferative effect of PGE2.

Propagation connectivity of random hypergraphs

We study the concept of propagation connectivity on random 3-uniform hypergraphs. This concept is inspired by a simple linear time algorithm for solving instances of certain constraint satisfaction problems. We derive upper and lower bounds for the propagation connectivity threshold, and point out some algorithmic implications.

Glioprotective impact of cell-permeable peptides in preclinical models of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by progressive degeneration of upper and lower motor neurons. It is mostly sporadic, but about 2% of cases are associated with mutations in the gene encoding the enzyme superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1). A major constraint to the comprehension of the pathogenesis of ALS has been long represented by the conviction that this disorder selectively affects motor neurons in a cell-autonomous manner. However, the failure to identify the events underlying the neurodegenerative process and the increased knowledge of the complex cellular interactions necessary for the correct functioning of the CNS has recently focused the attention on the contribution to neurodegeneration of glial cells, including astrocytes. Astrocytes can hurt motor neurons directly by secreting neurotoxic factors, but they can also play a deleterious role indirectly by losing functions that are supportive for neurons. Recently, we reported that a subpopulation of astrocytes degenerates in the spinal cord of hSOD1G93A transgenic mouse model of ALS. Mechanistic studies in cultured astrocytes revealed that such effect is mediated by the excitatory amino acid glutamate.On the bsis of these observations, we next used the established cell culture model as a tool to screen the glioprotective effect of innovative drugs, namely cell-permeable therapeutics. These consist of peptidic effector moieties coupled to the selective intracellular peptide transporter TAT protein. We initially validated the usefulness of these molecules demonstrating that a control fluorescent peptide enters astrocytes in culture and is retained within the cells up to 24-48 h, according to the timing of our cytotoxicity experiments. We then tested the impact of specific intracellular peptides with antiapoptotic properties on glutamate-treated hSOD1G93A- expressing astrocytes and we identified one molecule that protects the cells from death. Chronic treatment of ALS mice with this peptide had a positive impact on the outcome of the disease.

Primordial Perturbations in Einstein-Aether theories

El nostre objectiu es l'estudi d'extensions de la Relativitat General i, en particular, estem interessats en les teories que continguin camps vectorials addicionals. En aquests tipus de teories es necessari imposar que el vector ha de tenir norma fixa per evitar la presència d'un fantasma o grau de llibertat amb terme cinètic negatiu, i això implica que la simetria Lorentz està trencada espontàniament. El camp del aether només interactua gravitatòriament i la seva presència es difícil de detectar, no obstant això, durant inflació les fluctuacions del buit a escales petites d'un camp lleuger pot deixar una empremta en observables com les anisotropies del fons de radiació de microones. Les fluctuacions del Einstein-aether es comporten com els camps sense massa i això fa que inflació generi modes de longitud de ona llarga en els sectors escalar i vectorial. Hem estudiat la signatura del Einstein-aether dins l'espectre de pertorbacions primordials lluny del límit de de Sitter de inflació. Aquests modes escalars i vectorials poden deixar una empremta significativa en la radiació de fons de microones en funció dels paràmetres del model. Les observacions del fons de radiació de microones imposen restriccions fenomenològiques que redueixen els límits existents per aquesta classe de teoria. Amb aquest estudi del aether també esperem millorar el coneixement que tenim de una classe més ampla de teories que exhibeixen el mateix tipus de trencament de simetria.

On the stability of the optimal value and the optimal set in optimization problems

The paper develops a stability theory for the optimal value and the optimal set mapping of optimization problems posed in a Banach space. The problems considered in this paper have an arbitrary number of inequality constraints involving lower semicontinuous (not necessarily convex) functions and one closed abstract constraint set. The considered perturbations lead to problems of the same type as the nominal one (with the same space of variables and the same number of constraints), where the abstract constraint set can also be perturbed. The spaces of functions involved in the problems (objective and constraints) are equipped with the metric of the uniform convergence on the bounded sets, meanwhile in the space of closed sets we consider, coherently, the Attouch-Wets topology. The paper examines, in a unified way, the lower and upper semicontinuity of the optimal value function, and the closedness, lower and upper semicontinuity (in the sense of Berge) of the optimal set mapping. This paper can be seen as a second part of the stability theory presented in [17], where we studied the stability of the feasible set mapping (completed here with the analysis of the Lipschitz-like property).

Different approaches to modelling the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control

This paper reviews three different approaches to modelling the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control. Although these approaches vary in their assessment of costs, the major focus of the paper is on the evaluation of effectiveness. The first model presented is a static economic model which assesses effectiveness in terms of the proportion of cases cured. This model is important in highlighting that the optimal choice of chemotherapy regime depends critically on the level of budget constraint, the unit costs of screening and treatment, the rates of compliance with screening and chemotherapy and the prevalence of infection. The limitations of this approach is that it models the cost-effectiveness of only one cycle of treatment, and effectiveness reflects only the immediate impact of treatment. The second model presented is a prevalence-based dynamic model which links prevalence rates from one year to the next, and assesses effectiveness as the proportion of cases prevented. This model was important as it introduced the concept of measuring the long-term impact of control by using a transmission model which can assess reduction in infection through time, but is limited to assessing the impact only on the prevalence of infection. The third approach presented is a theoretical framework which describes the dynamic relationships between infection and morbidity, and which assesses effectiveness in terms of case-years prevented of infection and morbidity. The use of this model in assessing the cost-effectiveness of age-targeted treatment in controlling Schistosoma mansoni is explored in detail, with respect to varying frequencies of treatment and the interaction between drug price and drug efficacy.

Computing hypergraph width measures exactly

Hypergraph width measures are a class of hypergraph invariants important in studying the complexity of constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs). We present a general exact exponential algorithm for a large variety of these measures. A connection between these and tree decompositions is established. This enables us to almost seamlessly adapt the combinatorial and algorithmic results known for tree decompositions of graphs to the case of hypergraphs and obtain fast exact algorithms. As a consequence, we provide algorithms which, given a hypergraph H on n vertices and m hyperedges, compute the generalized hypertree-width of H in time O*(2n) and compute the fractional hypertree-width of H in time O(1.734601n.m).1

Immune Response of Cattle Infected with African Trypanosomes

Trypanosomosis is the most economically important disease constraint to livestock productivity in sub-Saharan Africa and has significant negative impact in other parts of the world. Livestock are an integral component of farming systems and thus contribute significantly to food and economic security in developing countries. Current methods of control for trypanosomosis are inadequate to prevent the enormous socioeconomic losses resulting from this disease. A vaccine has been viewed as the most desirable control option. However, the complexity of the parasite's antigenic repertoire made development of a vaccine based on the variable surface glycoprotein coat unlikely. As a result, research is now focused on identifying invariant trypanosome components as potential targets for interrupting infection or infection-mediated disease. Immunosuppression appears to be a nearly universal feature of infection with African trypanosomes and thus may represent an essential element of the host-parasite relationship, possibly by reducing the host's ability to mount a protective immune response. Antibody, T cell and macrophage/monocyte responses of infected cattle are depressed in both trypanosusceptible and trypanotolerant breeds of cattle. This review describes the specific T cell and monocyte/macrophage functions that are altered in trypanosome-infected cattle and compares these disorders with those that have been described in the murine model of trypanosomosis. The identification of parasite factors that induce immunosuppression and the mechanisms that mediate depressed immune responses might suggest novel disease intervention strategies.

Scaling behavior and equilibrium lengths of knotted polymers

We use numerical simulations to investigate how the chain length and topology of freely fluctuating knotted polymer rings affect their various spatial characteristics such as the radius of the smallest sphere enclosing momentary configurations of simulated polymer chains. We describe how the average value of a characteristic changes with the chain size and how this change depends on the topology of the modeled polymers. Although the scaling profiles of a spatial characteristic for distinct knot types do not intersect (at least, in the range of our data), the profiles for nontrivial knots intersect the corresponding profile obtained for phantom polymers, i.e., those that are free to explore all available topological states. For each knot type, this point of intersection defines its equilibrium length with respect to the spatial characteristic. At this chain length, a polymer forming a given knot type will not tend to increase or decrease. on average, the value of the spatial characteristic when the polymer is released from its topological constraint. We show interrelations between equilibrium lengths defined with respect to spatial characteristics of different character and observe that they are related to the lengths of ideal geometric configurations of the corresponding knot types.