Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model, which relaxes the assumption that all consumers are perfectly informed about the level of fundamentals. In this environment, the KFG equilibrium of zero devaluation is only one of many possible equilibria. In all the other equilibria, the lack of perfect information delays the attack on the currency past the point at which the shadow exchange rate equals the peg, giving rise to unpredictable and discrete devaluations.

Constant interest rate projections without the curse of indeterminacy

Constant interest rate (CIR) projections are often criticized on the grounds that they are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in a variety of forward-looking models. This note shows howto construct CIR projections that are not subject to that criticism, using a standard New Keynesian model as a reference framework.

Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy

We lay out a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap. We use the resulting framework to analyze the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rule-based policy regimes for the small open economy: domestic inflation and CPI-based Taylor rules, and an exchange rate peg. We show that a key difference amongthese regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail. We also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy, and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules.

Characterization and detection of naturally occurring antibodies against IL-1 alpha and IL-1 beta in normal human plasma.

During the development and testing of a radioreceptor assay (RRA) for human IL-1, we have detected and identified the presence of auto-antibodies to IL-1 in normal human plasma (NHP). The RRA is based on the competition between human 125I-labeled rIL-1 alpha and standard or unknown quantities of IL-1 alpha or IL-1 beta for binding to a limited amounts of IL-1 receptor (IL-1R) isolated from the EL4 mouse thymoma cell line. NHP from 20 out of 100 unselected blood donors were found to completely inhibit the binding of 125I-labeled IL-1 alpha to its receptor, suggesting the presence in these NHP samples of either abnormal amounts of IL-1 or of a factor binding to the 125I-labeled IL-1 alpha. Special care was taken to ascertain that the inhibitory factors were antibodies and not soluble IL-1 receptor antagonist. When plasma samples with inhibiting activity were incubated with labeled IL-1 alpha and chromatographed on a Sephadex G200 column, they were found to contain 125I-labeled complexes with an apparent molecular weight of 150-200kD. The IL-1 binding factor could be eliminated from plasma by incubation with protein A-Sepharose, suggesting that it consisted in IgG antibodies directed against IL-1. Furthermore, the antibody nature of the inhibiting factor was confirmed by its binding to purified rIL-1 coupled to Sepharose. Screening of 200 NHP samples by incubation with 100 pg of 125I-labeled IL-1 followed by precipitation with 12% of polyethylene glycol (PEG) confirmed that about 25% of NHP contain detectable IgG antibodies to IL-1 alpha, while only 2% of NHP contain antibodies to IL-1 beta. No correlation between the presence of these anti-IL-1 antibodies and any particular major histocompatibility complex or any pathological conditions was detected. We suggest that all serum samples assayed for IL-1 alpha or IL-1 beta content should be pretested with the PEG precipitation assay described here.

On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy

This paper proposes a dynamic framework to study the timing of balance of paymentscrises. The model incorporates two main ingredients: (i) investors have private information; (ii)investors interact in a dynamic setting, weighing the high returns on domestic assets against the incentives to pull out before the devaluation. The model shows that the presence of disaggregated information delays the onset of BOP crises, giving rise to discrete devaluations. It also shows that high interest rates can be eective in delaying and possibly avoiding the abandonment of the peg. The optimal policy is to raise interest rates sharply as fundamentals become very weak. However, this policy is time inconsistent, suggesting a role for commitment devices such as currency boards or IMF pressure.

Synergistic effect of calcitriol and interferon-α on hepatitis C virus replication in vitro

Background and aims: V itamin D is an important modulator o fnumerous c ellular processes, including innate and adaptive immunepathways. A recent large-scale genetic validation study performed withinthe framework of the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort S tudy has demonstratedan association between t he 1α-hydroxylase promoter single nucleotidepolymorphism CYP27B1-1260 rs10877012 and sustained virologicresponse (SVR) after pegylated interferon-α ( PEG-IFN-α) plus ribavirintreatment of c hronic hepatitis C in patients w ith a p oor-response IL28Bgenotype. This suggests an intrinsic role o f vitamin D signaling in theresponse t o treatment of chronic hepatitis C, especially in patients withlimited sensitivity to IFN-α. In the present study, we investigated theeffect of 1,25-(OH)2 v itamin D3 (calcitriol) alone or in combination withIFN-α on the hepatitis C virus (HCV) life cycle in vitro.Methods: H uh-7.5 cells harboring Con1- or JFH-1-derived HCVreplicons or cell culture-derived HCV were exposed to 0.1-100 nMcalcitriol ± 1 -100 IU/ml IFN-α. The effect on HCV RNA replication andviral particle production was investigated by quantitative r eal-time PCR,immunoblot analyses, and infectivity titration analyses. The expression ofinterferon-stimulated genes (ISGs) and of calcitriol target genes wasassessed by quantitative real-time PCR.Results: Calcitriol had no relevant effect on the viability of Huh-7.5 cells.Calcitriol strongly induced and repressed the expression of the calcitrioltarget genes CYP24A1 and CCNC, respectively, confirming that Huh-7.5cells c an respond to c alcitriol signaling. P hysiological doses of calcitrioldid not significantly a ffect HCV RNA replication or i nfectious particleproduction in vitro, and calcitriol alone h ad no significant effect on theexpression of several ISGs. However, calcitriol in combination with IFN-αsubstantially increased the expression of ISGs compared to IFN-α alone.In addition, calcitriol plus IFN-α s ynergistically inhibited HCV RNAreplication.Conclusions: C alcitriol at physiological concentrations and IFN-α a ctsynergistically on the expression of I SGs and HCV RNA replication i nvitro. Experiments exploring the underlying mechanisms are underway.

Postmortale Darstellung der Koronararteriendurchmultiphasische Ganzkörper-CT-Angiographie : Vergleich mit Ante-mortem-Koronarangiographien

Die Diagnostik des plötzlichen Herztods durch bildgebende Techniken ist bislang unzureichend evaluiert. Als Validierungsoption für postmortale koronarangiographische Methoden steht der Sektionsbefund zur Verfügung. Sequenziell postmortal durchgeführte alternative angiographische Methoden sind denkbar. Schließlich bietet die ante mortem durchgeführte Koronarangiographie (CA) - ggf. In Verbindung mit der perkutanen transluminalen Koronarangioplastie (PTCA) - weitere Vergleichsmöglichkeiten. Neben deskriptiven sind hier auch potenziell funktionelle Aussagen zum Stenosegrad möglich.

RNOP-09: pegylated liposomal doxorubicine and prolonged temozolomide in addition to radiotherapy in newly diagnosed glioblastoma--a phase II study.

BACKGROUND: Although Temozolomide is effective against glioblastoma, the prognosis remains dismal and new regimens with synergistic activity are sought for. METHODS: In this phase-I/II trial, pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (Caelyx, PEG-Dox) and prolonged administration of Temozolomide in addition to radiotherapy was investigated in 63 patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma. In phase-I, PEG-Dox was administered in a 3-by-3 dose-escalation regimen. In phase-II, 20 mg/m2 PEG-Dox was given once prior to radiotherapy and on days 1 and 15 of each 28-day cycle starting 4 weeks after radiotherapy. Temozolomide was given in a dose of 75 mg/m2 daily during radiotherapy (60 Gy) and 150-200 mg/m2 on days 1-5 of each 28-day cycle for 12 cycles or until disease progression. RESULTS: The toxicity of the combination of PEG-Dox, prolonged administration of Temozolomide, and radiotherapy was tolerable. The progression free survival after 12 months (PFS-12) was 30.2%, the median overall survival was 17.6 months in all patients including the ones from Phase-I. None of the endpoints differed significantly from the EORTC26981/NCIC-CE.3 data in a post-hoc statistical comparison. CONCLUSION: Together, the investigated combination is tolerable and feasible. Neither the addition of PEG-Dox nor the prolonged administration of Temozolomide resulted in a meaningful improvement of the patient's outcome as compared to the EORTC26981/NCIC-CE.3 data.

Combined Electrostatic and Covalent Polymer Networks for Cell Microencapsulation

Two types of hydrogel microspheres have been developed. Fast ionotropic gelation of sodium alginate (Na-alg) in the presence of calcium ions was combined with slow covalent cross-linking of poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) derivatives. For the first type, the fast obtainable Ca-alg hydrogel served as spherical matrix for the simultaneously occurring covalent cross-linking of multi-arm PEG derivative. A two-component interpenetrating network was formed in one step upon extruding the mixture of the two polymers into the gelation bath. For the second type, heterobifunctional PEG was grafted onto Na-alg prior to gelation. Upon extrusion of the polymer solution into the gelation bath, fast Ca-alg formation ensured the spherical shape and was accompanied by cross-linker-free covalent cross-linking of the PEG side chains. Thus, one-component hydrogel microspheres resulted. We present the physical properties of the hydrogel microspheres and demonstrate the feasibility of cell microencapsulation for both types of polymer networks.

Postmortem whole-body CT angiography: evaluation of two contrast media solutions.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to establish a standardized procedure for postmortem whole-body CT-based angiography with lipophilic and hydrophilic contrast media solutions and to compare the results of these two methods. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Minimally invasive postmortem CT angiography was performed on 10 human cadavers via access to the femoral blood vessels. Separate perfusion of the arterial and venous systems was established with a modified heart-lung machine using a mixture of an oily contrast medium and paraffin (five cases) and a mixture of a water-soluble contrast medium with polyethylene glycol (PEG) 200 in the other five cases. Imaging was executed with an MDCT scanner. RESULTS: The minimally invasive femoral approach to the vascular system provided a good depiction of lesions of the complete vascular system down to the level of the small supplying vessels. Because of the enhancement of well-vascularized tissues, angiography with the PEG-mixed contrast medium allowed the detection of tissue lesions and the depiction of vascular abnormalities such as pulmonary embolisms or ruptures of the vessel wall. CONCLUSION: The angiographic method with a water-soluble contrast medium and PEG as a contrast-agent dissolver showed a clearly superior quality due to the lack of extravasation through the gastrointestinal vascular bed and the enhancement of soft tissues (cerebral cortex, myocardium, and parenchymal abdominal organs). The diagnostic possibilities of these findings in cases of antemortem ischemia of these tissues are not yet fully understood.

Molecular genetic approaches to the biology of the moss "Physcomitrella patens"

La mousse haplobiontique Physcomitrella patens est utilisée comme système génétique modèle pour l'étude du développement des plantes. Cependant, l'absence d'un protocole efficace de transformation a constitué jusqu'à présent un gros désavantage méthodologique pour le développement futur de ce système expérimental. Les résultats présentés dans le premier chapitre relatent la mise au point d'un protocole de transformation basé sur la technique de transfert direct de gènes dans des protoplastes par précipitation au PEG. Un essai d'expression transitoire de gènes a été mis au point. Ce protocole a été adapté afin de permettre l'introduction in vivo d'anticorps dans des protoplastes. Le protocole modifié permet d'introduire simultanément du DNA et des IgG dans les cellules, et nous avons démontré que ces anticorps peuvent inactiver spécifiquement le produit d'un gène co-introduit (GUS), ainsi que certaines protéines impliquées dans des processus cellulaires (tubuline). Cet essai, baptisé "essai transitoire d'immuno-inactivation in vivo", devrait être directement applicable à d'autres protoplastes végétaux, et permettre l'élaboration de nouvelles stratégies dans l'étude de processus cellulaires. Le second chapitre est consacré aux expériences de transformation de la mousse avec des gènes conférant une résistance à des antibiotiques. Nos résultats démontrent que l'intégration de gènes de résistance dans le génome de P. patens est possible, mais que cet événement est rare. Il s'agit là néanmoins de la première démonstration d'une transformation génétique réussie de cet organisme. L'introduction de gènes de résistance aux antibiotiques dans les protoplastes de P. patens génère à haute fréquence des clones résistants instables. Deux classes de clones instables ont été identifiés. La caractérisation phénotypique, génétique et moléculaire de ces clones suggère fortement que les séquences transformantes sont concaténées pour former des structures de haut poids moléculaire, et que ces structures sont efficacement répliquées et maintenues dans les cellules résistantes en tant qu'éléments génétiques extrachromosomaux. Ce type de transformation nous permet d'envisager des expériences permettant l'identification des séquences génomiques impliquées dans la replication de l'ADN de mousse. Plusieurs lignées transgéniques ont été retransformées avec des plasmides portant des séquences homologues aux séquences intégrées dans le génome, mais conférant une résistance à un autre antibiotique. Les résultats présentés dans le troisième chapitre montrent que les fréquences de transformation intégrative dans les lignées transgéniques sont 10 fois plus élevées que dans la lignée sauvage, et que cette augmentation est associée à une coségrégation des gènes de résistance dans la plupart des clones testés. Ces résultats génétiques indiquent que l'intégration de séquences d'ADN étranger dans le génome de P. patens a lieu en moyenne 10 fois plus fréquemment par recombinaison homologue que par intégration aléatoire. Ce rapport homologue/aléatoire est 10000 fois supérieur aux rapports obtenus avec d'autres plantes, et fournit l'outil indispensable à la réalisation d'expériences de génétique inverse dans cet organisme à haplophase dominante. THESIS SUMMARY The moss Physcomitrella patens is used as a model genetic system to study plant development, taking advantage of the fact that the haploid gametophyte dominates in its life cycle. But further development of this model system was hampered by the lack of a protocol allowing the genetic transformation of this plant. We have developed a transformation protocol based on PEG-mediated direct gene transfer to protoplasts. Our data demonstrate that this procedure leads to the establishment of an efficient transient gene expression assay. A slightly modified protocol has been developed allowing the in vivo introduction of antibodies in moss protoplasts. Both DNA and IgGs can be loaded simultaneously, and specific antibodies can immunodeplete the product of an expression cassette (GUS) as well as proteins involved in cellular processes (tubulins). This assay, named transient in vivo immunodepletion assay, should be applicable to other plant protoplasts, and offers new approaches to study cellular processes. Transformations have been performed with bacterial plasmids carrying antibiotic resistance expression cassette. Our data demonstrate that integrative transformation occurs, but at low frequencies. This is the first demonstration of a successful genetic transformation of mosses. Resistant unstable colonies are recovered at high frequencies following transformation, and two different classes of unstable clones have been identified. Phenotypical, genetic and molecular characterisation of these clones strongly suggests that bacterial plasmids are concatenated to form high molecular arrays which are efficiently replicated and maintained as extrachromosomal elements in the resistant cells. Replicative transformation in P. patens should allow the design of experiments aimed at the identification of genomic sequences involved in moss DNA replication. Transgenic strains have been retransformed with bacterial plasmids carrying sequences homologous to the integrated transloci, but conferring resistance to another antibiotic. Our results demonstrate an order of magnitude increase of integrative transformation frequencies in transgenic strains as compared to wild-type, associated with cosegregation of the resistance genes in most of these double resistant transgenic strains. These observations provide strong genetic evidence that gene targeting occurs about ten times more often than random integration in the genome of P. patens. Such ratio of targeted to random integration is about 10 000 times higher than previous reports of gene targeting in plants, and provides the essential requirement for the development of efficient reverse genetics in the haplodiplobiontic P. patens.

Identification of opsA, a gene involved in solute stress mitigation and survival in soil, in the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon-degrading bacterium Novosphingobium sp. strain LH128.

The aim of this study was to identify genes involved in solute and matric stress mitigation in the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)-degrading Novosphingobium sp. strain LH128. The genes were identified using plasposon mutagenesis and by selection of mutants that showed impaired growth in a medium containing 450 mM NaCl as a solute stress or 10% (wt/vol) polyethylene glycol (PEG) 6000 as a matric stress. Eleven and 14 mutants showed growth impairment when exposed to solute and matric stresses, respectively. The disrupted sequences were mapped on a draft genome sequence of strain LH128, and the corresponding gene functions were predicted. None of them were shared between solute and matric stress-impacted mutants. One NaCl-affected mutant (i.e., NA7E1) with a disruption in a gene encoding a putative outer membrane protein (OpsA) was susceptible to lower NaCl concentrations than the other mutants. The growth of NA7E1 was impacted by other ions and nonionic solutes and by sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS), suggesting that opsA is involved in osmotic stress mitigation and/or outer membrane stability in strain LH128. NA7E1 was also the only mutant that showed reduced growth and less-efficient phenanthrene degradation in soil compared to the wild type. Moreover, the survival of NA7E1 in soil decreased significantly when the moisture content was decreased but was unaffected when soluble solutes from sandy soil were removed by washing. opsA appears to be important for the survival of strain LH128 in soil, especially in the case of reduced moisture content, probably by mitigating the effects of solute stress and retaining membrane stability.

A large-scale genetic validation study coupled with in vitro analyses reveal a role for vitamin Dsignaling in the pathogenesis and response to treatment of hepatitis C virus infection

Background and Aims: Vitamin D is an important modulatorof numerous cellular processes. Some of us recently observedan association of the 1a-hydroxylase promoter polymorphismCYP27B1-1260 rs10877012 with sustained virologic response (SVR)in a relatively small number of German patients with chronichepatitis C. In the present study, we aimed to validate thisassociation in a large and well characterized patient cohort, theSwiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study (SCCS). In addition, we examinedthe effect of vitamin D on the hepatitis C virus (HCV) life cyclein vitro.Methods: CYP27B1-1260 rs10877012 and IL28B rs12979860 singlenucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped in 1049 patientswith chronic hepatitis C from the SCCS, of whom 698 were treatedwith pegylated interferon-a (PEG-IFN-a) and ribavirin. In addition,112 patients with spontaneous clearance of HCV were examined.SNPs were correlated with variables reflecting the natural courseand treatment outcome of chronic hepatitis C. The effect of1,25-(OH)2D3 (calcitriol) on HCV replication and viral particleproduction was investigated in vitro using human hepatoma celllines (Huh-7.5) harbouring subgenomic replicons and cell culturederivedHCV.Results: The CYP27B1-1260 rs10877012 genotype was notassociated with SVR in patients with the good-response IL28Brs1279860 CC genotype. However, in patients with poor-responseIL28B rs1279860 genotype CT and TT, CYP27B1-1260 rs10877012was a significant independent predictor of SVR (15% difference inSVR between rs10877012 genotype AA vs. CC, p = 0.030, OR = 1.495,95% CI = 1.038-2.152). The CYPB27-1260 rs10877012 genotype wasneither associated with spontaneous clearance of HCV, nor withliver fibrosis progression rate, inflammatory activity of chronichepatitis C, or HCV viral load. Physiological doses of 1,25-(OH)2D3did not significantly affect HCVRNA replication or infectiousparticle production in vitro.Conclusions: The results of this large-scale genetic validationstudy reveal a role of vitamin D metabolism in the responseto treatment in chronic hepatitis C, but 1,25-(OH)2D3 does notexhibit a significant direct inhibitory antiviral effect. Thus, theability of vitamin D to modulate immunity against HCV shouldbe investigated.

Tuning the immune response of dendritic cells to surface-assembled poly(I:C) on microspheres through synergistic interactions between phagocytic and TLR3 signaling.

The artificial dsRNA polyriboinosinic acid-polyribocytidylic acid, poly(I:C), is a potent adjuvant candidate for vaccination, as it strongly drives cell-mediated immunity. However, because of its effects on non-immune bystander cells, poly(I:C) administration may bear danger for the development of autoimmune diseases. Thus poly(I:C) should be applied in the lowest dose possible. We investigated microspheres carrying surface-assembled poly(I:C) as a two-in-one adjuvant formulation to stimulate maturation of monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MoDCs). Negatively charged polystyrene microspheres were equipped with a poly(ethylene glycol) corona through electrostatically driven surface assembly of a library of polycationic poly(l-lysine)-graft-poly(ethylene glycol) copolymers, PLL-g-PEG. Stable surface assembly of poly(I:C) was achieved by incubation of polymer-coated microspheres in an aqueous poly(I:C) solution. Surface-assembled poly(I:C) exhibited a strongly enhanced efficacy to stimulate maturation of MoDCs by up to two orders of magnitude, as compared to free poly(I:C). Multiple phagocytosis events were the key factor to enhance the efficacy. The cytokine secretion pattern of MoDCs after exposure to surface-assembled poly(I:C) differed from that of free poly(I:C), while their ability to stimulate T cell proliferation was similar. Overall, phagocytic signaling plays an important role in defining the resulting immune response to such two-in-one adjuvant formulations.

Assessing the pH and DP of canvasses with NIR spectroscopy

The canvas support in easel paintings is composed mainly of cellulose. One of the maindegradation paths of cellulose is acid-catalysed hydrolysis, which means that in an acidic environment (low pH), its degradation proceeds at a faster rate (Strlič et al., 2005).The main effect of acid-catalysed hydrolysis is the breaking up of the polymer chains,measured by the “Degree of Polymerisation” (DP). The lowering of the DP value impliesa lower mechanical strength of the textile (Scicolone, 1993), and thus this parameter canbe used to monitor degradation. Knowing these two parameters can, therefore, be veryinformative regarding the condition of the canvas support.