943 resultados para Bayesian p-values


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Attention is directed at land application of piggery effluent (containing urine, faeces, water, and wasted feed) as a potential source of water resource contamination with phosphorus (P). This paper summarises P-related properties of soil from 0-0.05 m depth at 11 piggery effluent application sites, in order to explore the impact that effluent application has had on the potential for run-off transport of P. The sites investigated were situated on Alfisol, Mollisol, Vertisol, and Spodosol soils in areas that received effluent for 1.5-30 years (estimated effluent-P applications of 100-310000 kg P/ha in total). Total (PT), bicarbonate extractable (PB), and soluble P forms were determined for the soil (0-0.05 m) at paired effluent and no-effluent sites, as well as texture, oxalate-extractable Fe and Al, organic carbon, and pH. All forms of soil P at 0-0.05 m depth increased with effluent application (PB at effluent sites was 1.7-15 times that at no-effluent sites) at 10 of the 11 sites. Increases in PB were strongly related to net P applications (regression analysis of log values for 7 sites with complete data sets: 82.6 % of variance accounted for, p <0.01). Effluent irrigation tended to increase the proportion of soil PT in dilute CaCl2-extractable forms (PTC: effluent average 2.0 %; no-effluent average 0.6%). The proportion of PTC in non-molybdate reactive forms (centrifuged supernatant) decreased (no-effluent average, 46.4 %; effluent average, 13.7 %). Anaerobic lagoon effluent did not reliably acidify soil, since no consistent relationship was observed for pH with effluent application. Soil organic carbon was increased in most of the effluent areas relative to the no-effluent areas. The four effluent areas where organic carbon was reduced had undergone intensive cultivation and cropping. Current effluent management at many of the piggeries failed to maximise the potential for waste P recapture. Ten of the case-study effluent application areas have received effluent-P in excess of crop uptake. While this may not represent a significant risk of leaching where sorption retains P, it has increased the risk of transport of P by run-off. Where such sites are close to surface water, run-off P loads should be managed.

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The dissertation presents a functional model for analysis of song translation. The model is developed on the basis of an examination of theatrical songs and a comparison of three translations: the songs of the Broadway musical My Fair Lady (Lerner and Loewe, 1956), made for the premiere productions (1959–1960) in Swedish, Danish, and Norwegian. The analysis explores the three challenges of a song translator: the fitting of a text to existing music, the consideration of a prospective sung performance, and the verbal approximation of the content of the source lyric. The theoretical foundation is based on a functional approach to translation studies (Christiane Nord) and a structuralist/semiotic analysis of a theatrical message (Ivo Osolsobě, building on Roman Jakobson). Thus, three functional levels in the fitting of a text to music are explored: first, a prosodic/phonetic format; secondly, a poetic/rhetoric format; and thirdly, semantic/reflexive values (verbalizing musical expression). Similarly, three functional levels in the textual connections to a prospective performance are explored: first, a presentational goal; secondly, the theatrical potential; and thirdly, dramaturgic values (for example dramatic information and linguistic register). The functionality of Broadway musical theatre songs is analyzed, and the song score of My Fair Lady, source and target lyrics, is studied, with an in-depth analysis of seven of the songs. The three translations were all considered very well-made and are used in productions of the musical to this day. The study finds that the song translators appear to have worked from an understanding of the presentational goal, designed their target texts on the prosodic and poetic shape of the music, and pursued the theatrical functionality of the song, not by copying, but by recreating connections to relevant contexts, partly independently of the source lyrics, using the resources of the target languages. Besides metaphrases (closest possible transfer), paraphrases and additions seem normally to be expected in song translation, but song translators may also follow highly individual strategies – for example, the Norwegian translator is consistently more verbally faithful than the Danish and Swedish translators. As a conclusion, it is suggested that although linguistic and cultural difference play a significant role, a translator’s solution must nevertheless be arrived at, and assessed, in relation to the song as a multimedial piece of material. As far as a song can be considered a theatrical message – singers representing the voice, person, and situation of the song – the descriptive model presented in the study is also applicable to the translation of other types of song.

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The electrical and optical properties of the thermally induced quenched-in levels in p-silicon which have heen attributed to iron are studied. The two levels, HI and H2, are located at Ev + 0.42 eV and Ev + 0.52 eV, respectively, as determined by TSCAP, DLTS, and transient photocapacitance methods. The photoionization cross sections are well described by Lucovsky's model. The hole capture by H1 is temperature dependent; a barrier of 40 meV is measured. However, multiphonon emission mechanism cannot be invoked to explain this temperature dependence due to the inferred zero lattice relaxation. The source of iron contamination is found to be the ambient conditions, in particular the quartz tube. The conflicting reports regarding the stability and the variation in the reported capture cross section values suggests that the observed Ev + 0.4 eV level must be a complex centre. The inferred near zero lattice relaxation during the electron transition implies weak coupling to the host lattice.

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TRANSFORMATIONS OF NATURE Science, Knowledge and Freedom in the Early Thinking of Rudolf Steiner. Perspectives on Waldorf Education in the light of the History of Ideas Waldorf Education is based on the worldview that Rudolf Steiner (1861-1925) developed to a wide-ranging anthroposophical movement in the first decades of the 20th century. This thesis takes as its departure the early thinking of Rudolf Steiner that precedes anthroposophy, and its main purpose is to uncover the tradition of ideas represented in Steiner´s early life and which, in different ways, have emerged in the practice of Waldorf Education. Through systematic analysis I attempt to bring to light different aspects of Steiner’s early thinking: his concept of science, his epistemological startingpoints and his philosophy of freedom. By departing from J. W. Goethe’s qualitative concept of science, Steiner strove in his early works to formulate a monistic worldview which appears to be closely related to the Romantic Movement and its philosophy of nature. Characteristic traits of his thinking are, on the one hand, a critique of a one-sided enlightenment and, on the other hand, an aspiration to see the world as a living organic unity. Human beings can, by developing our intuitive faculties, get a deeper understanding of the indissoluble relationship between man and nature. Against this background Steiner´s early thinking can be read as a special kind of romantic development narrative. Steiner’s early thinking also opens the way for romantic perspectives on Waldorf Education. It appears that many central aims and conceptions in Waldorf Education can be illuminated by the epistemological perspective upon which Steiner elaborated early in his life. An organic curriculum, phenomenological didactics and high ideal of freedom can be considered seen as educational applications of conceptions that played an important role in Goethe and his age. Thus, Waldorf Education provides in our contemporary society an exceptional set of educational values: a holistic education with romantic undertones.

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OBJECTIVE Corneal confocal microscopy is a novel diagnostic technique for the detection of nerve damage and repair in a range of peripheral neuropathies, in particular diabetic neuropathy. Normative reference values are required to enable clinical translation and wider use of this technique. We have therefore undertaken a multicenter collaboration to provide worldwide age-adjusted normative values of corneal nerve fiber parameters. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 1,965 corneal nerve images from 343 healthy volunteers were pooled from six clinical academic centers. All subjects underwent examination with the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph corneal confocal microscope. Images of the central corneal subbasal nerve plexus were acquired by each center using a standard protocol and analyzed by three trained examiners using manual tracing and semiautomated software (CCMetrics). Age trends were established using simple linear regression, and normative corneal nerve fiber density (CNFD), corneal nerve fiber branch density (CNBD), corneal nerve fiber length (CNFL), and corneal nerve fiber tortuosity (CNFT) reference values were calculated using quantile regression analysis. RESULTS There was a significant linear age-dependent decrease in CNFD (-0.164 no./mm(2) per year for men, P < 0.01, and -0.161 no./mm(2) per year for women, P < 0.01). There was no change with age in CNBD (0.192 no./mm(2) per year for men, P = 0.26, and -0.050 no./mm(2) per year for women, P = 0.78). CNFL decreased in men (-0.045 mm/mm(2) per year, P = 0.07) and women (-0.060 mm/mm(2) per year, P = 0.02). CNFT increased with age in men (0.044 per year, P < 0.01) and women (0.046 per year, P < 0.01). Height, weight, and BMI did not influence the 5th percentile normative values for any corneal nerve parameter. CONCLUSIONS This study provides robust worldwide normative reference values for corneal nerve parameters to be used in research and clinical practice in the study of diabetic and other peripheral neuropathies.

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Although bats of the genus Pteropus are important ecologically as pollinators and natural hosts for zoonotic pathogens, little is known about their basic physiology. Hematology and plasma biochemistries were determined from wild-caught flying foxes (Pteropus giganteus) in northern India (n = 41). Mean lymphocyte differential count was higher for juveniles than adults. Mean platelet count was lower than previously reported. No hemoparasites were observed. No differences were observed between plasma biochemistry values of male and female bats, juveniles and adults, or lactating and nonlactating females. Variation in aspartate aminotransferase (AST) was seen based on body condition score. Blood urea nitrogen and cholesterol concentrations were lower in P. giganteus than other mammalian groups, but were consistent with those reported from other Pteropus species. Alanine aminotransferase and AST concentrations were higher than those reported for Pteropus vampyrus, a closely related species. This study provides basic physiologic information that can be used in future health and disease studies of Indian flying foxes.

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This paper describes the development of a model, based on Bayesian networks, to estimate the likelihood that sheep flocks are infested with lice at shearing and to assist farm managers or advisers to assess whether or not to apply a lousicide treatment. The risk of lice comes from three main sources: (i) lice may have been present at the previous shearing and not eradicated; (ii) lice may have been introduced with purchased sheep; and (iii) lice may have entered with strays. A Bayesian network is used to assess the probability of each of these events independently and combine them for an overall assessment. Rubbing is a common indicator of lice but there are other causes too. If rubbing has been observed, an additional Bayesian network is used to assess the probability that lice are the cause. The presence or absence of rubbing and its possible cause are combined with these networks to improve the overall risk assessment.

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Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a versatile platform for predicting and analysing the behaviour of complex systems. As such, they are well suited to the prediction of complex ecosystem population trajectories under anthropogenic disturbances such as the dredging of marine seagrass ecosystems. However, DBNs assume a homogeneous Markov chain whereas a key characteristics of complex ecosystems is the presence of feedback loops, path dependencies and regime changes whereby the behaviour of the system can vary based on past states. This paper develops a method based on the small world structure of complex systems networks to modularise a non-homogeneous DBN and enable the computation of posterior marginal probabilities given evidence in forwards inference. It also provides an approach for an approximate solution for backwards inference as convergence is not guaranteed for a path dependent system. When applied to the seagrass dredging problem, the incorporation of path dependency can implement conditional absorption and allows release from the zero state in line with environmental and ecological observations. As dredging has a marked global impact on seagrass and other marine ecosystems of high environmental and economic value, using such a complex systems model to develop practical ways to meet the needs of conservation and industry through enhancing resistance and/or recovery is of paramount importance.

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Clinical trials have shown that weight reduction with lifestyles can delay or prevent diabetes and reduce blood pressure. An appropriate definition of obesity using anthropometric measures is useful in predicting diabetes and hypertension at the population level. However, there is debate on which of the measures of obesity is best or most strongly associated with diabetes and hypertension and on what are the optimal cut-off values for body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in this regard. The aims of the study were 1) to compare the strength of the association for undiagnosed or newly diagnosed diabetes (or hypertension) with anthropometric measures of obesity in people of Asian origin, 2) to detect ethnic differences in the association of undiagnosed diabetes with obesity, 3) to identify ethnic- and sex-specific change point values of BMI and WC for changes in the prevalence of diabetes and 4) to evaluate the ethnic-specific WC cutoff values proposed by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) in 2005 for central obesity. The study population comprised 28 435 men and 35 198 women, ≥ 25 years of age, from 39 cohorts participating in the DECODA and DECODE studies, including 5 Asian Indian (n = 13 537), 3 Mauritian Indian (n = 4505) and Mauritian Creole (n = 1075), 8 Chinese (n =10 801), 1 Filipino (n = 3841), 7 Japanese (n = 7934), 1 Mongolian (n = 1991), and 14 European (n = 20 979) studies. The prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and central obesity was estimated, using descriptive statistics, and the differences were determined with the χ2 test. The odds ratios (ORs) or  coefficients (from the logistic model) and hazard ratios (HRs, from the Cox model to interval censored data) for BMI, WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-stature ratio (WSR) were estimated for diabetes and hypertension. The differences between BMI and WC, WHR or WSR were compared, applying paired homogeneity tests (Wald statistics with 1 df). Hierarchical three-level Bayesian change point analysis, adjusting for age, was applied to identify the most likely cut-off/change point values for BMI and WC in association with previously undiagnosed diabetes. The ORs for diabetes in men (women) with BMI, WC, WHR and WSR were 1.52 (1.59), 1.54 (1.70), 1.53 (1.50) and 1.62 (1.70), respectively and the corresponding ORs for hypertension were 1.68 (1.55), 1.66 (1.51), 1.45 (1.28) and 1.63 (1.50). For diabetes the OR for BMI did not differ from that for WC or WHR, but was lower than that for WSR (p = 0.001) in men while in women the ORs were higher for WC and WSR than for BMI (both p < 0.05). Hypertension was more strongly associated with BMI than with WHR in men (p < 0.001) and most strongly with BMI than with WHR (p < 0.001), WSR (p < 0.01) and WC (p < 0.05) in women. The HRs for incidence of diabetes and hypertension did not differ between BMI and the other three central obesity measures in Mauritian Indians and Mauritian Creoles during follow-ups of 5, 6 and 11 years. The prevalence of diabetes was highest in Asian Indians, lowest in Europeans and intermediate in others, given the same BMI or WC category. The  coefficients for diabetes in BMI (kg/m2) were (men/women): 0.34/0.28, 0.41/0.43, 0.42/0.61, 0.36/0.59 and 0.33/0.49 for Asian Indian, Chinese, Japanese, Mauritian Indian and European (overall homogeneity test: p > 0.05 in men and p < 0.001 in women). Similar results were obtained in WC (cm). Asian Indian women had lower  coefficients than women of other ethnicities. The change points for BMI were 29.5, 25.6, 24.0, 24.0 and 21.5 in men and 29.4, 25.2, 24.9, 25.3 and 22.5 (kg/m2) in women of European, Chinese, Mauritian Indian, Japanese, and Asian Indian descent. The change points for WC were 100, 85, 79 and 82 cm in men and 91, 82, 82 and 76 cm in women of European, Chinese, Mauritian Indian, and Asian Indian. The prevalence of central obesity using the 2005 IDF definition was higher in Japanese men but lower in Japanese women than in their Asian counterparts. The prevalence of central obesity was 52 times higher in Japanese men but 0.8 times lower in Japanese women compared to the National Cholesterol Education Programme definition. The findings suggest that both BMI and WC predicted diabetes and hypertension equally well in all ethnic groups. At the same BMI or WC level, the prevalence of diabetes was highest in Asian Indians, lowest in Europeans and intermediate in others. Ethnic- and sex-specific change points of BMI and WC should be considered in setting diagnostic criteria for obesity to detect undiagnosed or newly diagnosed diabetes.

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From consideration of 'H-lH vicinal coupling constants and '"G'H long-range coupling constants in a series of amino acid derivatives, the precise values of uC component vicinal coupling constants have been calculated for the three minimum energy staggered rotamers for the C(or)H-C(P)H, side-chains of amino acids.

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The primary aim of the present study was to find an efficient and simple method of vegetative propagation for producing large numbers of hybrid aspen (Populus tremuloides L. x P. tremula Michx.) plants for forest plantations. The key objectives were to investigate the main physiological factors that affect the ability of cuttings to regenerate and to determine whether these factors could be manipulated by different growth conditions. In addition, clonal variation in traits related to propagation success was examined. According to our results, with the stem cutting method, depending on the clone, it is possible to obtain only 1−8 plants from one stock plant per year. With the root cutting method the corresponding values for two-year-old stock plants are 81−207 plants. The difference in number of cuttings between one- and two-year-old stock plants is so pronounced that it is economically feasible to grow stock plants for two years. There is no reason to use much older stock plants as a source of cuttings, as it has been observed that rooting ability diminishes as root diameter increases. Clonal variation is the most important individual factor in propagation of hybrid aspen. The fact that the efficiently sprouted clones also rooted best facilitates the selection of clones for large-scale propagation. In practice, root cuttings taken from all parts of the root system of hybrid aspen were capable of producing new shoots and roots. However, for efficient rooting it is important to use roots smaller than one centimeter in diameter. Both rooting and sprouting, as well as sprouting rate, were increased by high soil temperature; in our studies the highest temperature tested (30ºC) was the best. Light accelerated the sprouting of root cuttings, but they rooted best in dark conditions. Rooting is essential because without roots the sprouted cutting cannot survive long. For aspen the criteria for clone selection are primarily fiber qualities and growth rate, but ability to regenerate efficiently is also essential. For large-scale propagation it is very important to find clones from which many cuttings per stock plant can be obtained. In light of production costs, however, it is even more important that the regeneration ability of the produced cuttings be high.

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Motivated by the analysis of the Australian Grain Insect Resistance Database (AGIRD), we develop a Bayesian hurdle modelling approach to assess trends in strong resistance of stored grain insects to phosphine over time. The binary response variable from AGIRD indicating presence or absence of strong resistance is characterized by a majority of absence observations and the hurdle model is a two step approach that is useful when analyzing such a binary response dataset. The proposed hurdle model utilizes Bayesian classification trees to firstly identify covariates and covariate levels pertaining to possible presence or absence of strong resistance. Secondly, generalized additive models (GAMs) with spike and slab priors for variable selection are fitted to the subset of the dataset identified from the Bayesian classification tree indicating possibility of presence of strong resistance. From the GAM we assess trends, biosecurity issues and site specific variables influencing the presence of strong resistance using a variable selection approach. The proposed Bayesian hurdle model is compared to its frequentist counterpart, and also to a naive Bayesian approach which fits a GAM to the entire dataset. The Bayesian hurdle model has the benefit of providing a set of good trees for use in the first step and appears to provide enough flexibility to represent the influence of variables on strong resistance compared to the frequentist model, but also captures the subtle changes in the trend that are missed by the frequentist and naive Bayesian models. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

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We use Bayesian model selection techniques to test extensions of the standard flat LambdaCDM paradigm. Dark-energy and curvature scenarios, and primordial perturbation models are considered. To that end, we calculate the Bayesian evidence in favour of each model using Population Monte Carlo (PMC), a new adaptive sampling technique which was recently applied in a cosmological context. The Bayesian evidence is immediately available from the PMC sample used for parameter estimation without further computational effort, and it comes with an associated error evaluation. Besides, it provides an unbiased estimator of the evidence after any fixed number of iterations and it is naturally parallelizable, in contrast with MCMC and nested sampling methods. By comparison with analytical predictions for simulated data, we show that our results obtained with PMC are reliable and robust. The variability in the evidence evaluation and the stability for various cases are estimated both from simulations and from data. For the cases we consider, the log-evidence is calculated with a precision of better than 0.08. Using a combined set of recent CMB, SNIa and BAO data, we find inconclusive evidence between flat LambdaCDM and simple dark-energy models. A curved Universe is moderately to strongly disfavoured with respect to a flat cosmology. Using physically well-motivated priors within the slow-roll approximation of inflation, we find a weak preference for a running spectral index. A Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum is weakly disfavoured. With the current data, tensor modes are not detected; the large prior volume on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r results in moderate evidence in favour of r=0.

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In this note, we shortly survey some recent approaches on the approximation of the Bayes factor used in Bayesian hypothesis testing and in Bayesian model choice. In particular, we reassess importance sampling, harmonic mean sampling, and nested sampling from a unified perspective.

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Genetics, the science of heredity and variation in living organisms, has a central role in medicine, in breeding crops and livestock, and in studying fundamental topics of biological sciences such as evolution and cell functioning. Currently the field of genetics is under a rapid development because of the recent advances in technologies by which molecular data can be obtained from living organisms. In order that most information from such data can be extracted, the analyses need to be carried out using statistical models that are tailored to take account of the particular genetic processes. In this thesis we formulate and analyze Bayesian models for genetic marker data of contemporary individuals. The major focus is on the modeling of the unobserved recent ancestry of the sampled individuals (say, for tens of generations or so), which is carried out by using explicit probabilistic reconstructions of the pedigree structures accompanied by the gene flows at the marker loci. For such a recent history, the recombination process is the major genetic force that shapes the genomes of the individuals, and it is included in the model by assuming that the recombination fractions between the adjacent markers are known. The posterior distribution of the unobserved history of the individuals is studied conditionally on the observed marker data by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The example analyses consider estimation of the population structure, relatedness structure (both at the level of whole genomes as well as at each marker separately), and haplotype configurations. For situations where the pedigree structure is partially known, an algorithm to create an initial state for the MCMC algorithm is given. Furthermore, the thesis includes an extension of the model for the recent genetic history to situations where also a quantitative phenotype has been measured from the contemporary individuals. In that case the goal is to identify positions on the genome that affect the observed phenotypic values. This task is carried out within the Bayesian framework, where the number and the relative effects of the quantitative trait loci are treated as random variables whose posterior distribution is studied conditionally on the observed genetic and phenotypic data. In addition, the thesis contains an extension of a widely-used haplotyping method, the PHASE algorithm, to settings where genetic material from several individuals has been pooled together, and the allele frequencies of each pool are determined in a single genotyping.