903 resultados para Bayesian inference on precipitation
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Eleocharis (Cyperaceae) is a morphologically and physiologically diverse lineage of 250 + species with a cosmopolitan distribution. We here explore phylogenetic relationships in this lineage using maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference analyses of nrDNA ITS and cpDNA trnC-ycf6 and ycf6-psbM sequence data with the goals of comparing our phylogenetic hypotheses to previous classifications, morphological variation, and photosynthetic pathway variation. Our results suggest that in Eleocharis C, photosynthesis has been derived at least three times, with several cases of possible reversion to C-3-like or intermediate pathways and several additional origins of C-3-C-4 intermediate photosynthetic pathways, as inferred by carbon isotope ratio measurements. Many classification units currently recognized in Eleocharis are not monophyletic, however, E. subgenus Limnochloa and E. subgenus Scirpidium are monophyletic. Other classification units largely corresponding to clades include E. subgenus Zinserlingia, E. subseries Chaetariae, and E. series Maculosae. Problems with species circumscription and morphological variation in several groups are discussed in light of the phylogeny, particularly in the context of species membership of seven focal clades found in the analyses.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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The study of the association between two random variables that have a joint normal distribution is of interest in applied statistics; for example, in statistical genetics. This article, targeted to applied statisticians, addresses inferences about the coefficient of correlation (ρ) in the bivariate normal and standard bivariate normal distributions using likelihood, frequentist, and Baycsian perspectives. Some results are surprising. For instance, the maximum likelihood estimator and the posterior distribution of ρ in the standard bivariate normal distribution do not follow directly from results for a general bivariate normal distribution. An example employing bootstrap and rejection sampling procedures is used to illustrate some of the peculiarities.
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Data from purebred Simmental, Nellore and Canchim cattle breeds obtained from the respective Brazilian Associations of Breeders were used to estimate variance components and to predict genetic values for 365 days weight. The results obtained by Bayesian inference were compared to those from Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) and Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP), which are the most commonly used methods of estimation and prediction in animal breeding. The two methods presented similar point estimates but the study of the marginal posterior distributions in the Bayesian approach yields more detailed information about the parameters and other unknowns in the model.
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Objective of present work was study a influence of environmental and genetic effects over characteristics of milk total production (PL) and lactation duration (DL), from 2572 lactations of 477 Guzerat cows, collected since 1957 to 2002, in Rio de Janeiro State. Environmental effects were analyzed by an statistical model that include male randomized effect, fixed effect of contemporary group, and the (co)variables age of cow (lineal and quadratic) and lactation duration. The contemporary group had significant effect just for PL. Bayesian inference was used to obtain estimatives of genetic parameters over an animal model, in which was included as fixed effect the contemporary group and the covariables age of cow (linear and quadratic). The estimates of heritability and repeatability were 0.36 and 0.75 for PL and 0.29 and 0.36 for DL, respectively. The estimated genetic correlation was 0.97. The heritability estimates for PL and DL were moderate, indicating that it is possible answer to the selection of the characteristics under study. The genetic correlation was high and indicates that selection for increase milk production will be accompanied with increase in lactation duration.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Synthesis Despite theoretical criticisms, the ubiquity of linear relationships between local and regional species richness has long been used to justify it as a valid framework to conclude that local communities are not saturated with species. However, we reanalyzed published studies with a new unbiased method and found no prevalence of linear relationships and more than 40% of misclassifications, including textbook examples. We thus conclude that the prevailing argument in favor of associating a valid ecological interpretation to local-regional species richness plots, its ubiquity, is not sustained, and that ecologists could use for instance metacommunity theory to make inference on the strength of local and regional processes. Identifying the relative importance of regional and local processes to local species diversity is a central issue to many questions in basic and applied ecology. One widely-used method is to plot local species richness against its regional richness to infer whether regional or local processes determine local diversity. However, this method increases the tendency to find regional prevalence as suggested by a recent simulation. We reanalyzed studies in the literature with an unbiased method and found no prevalence of either regional or local processes. In addition, almost 40% of the studies and 50% of the ecology textbook examples using the traditional method were misclassified. Our findings reinforce the need of alternative, novel tools identified by for instance metacommunity theory to go beyond the studies of local-regional relationships in the ecological literature that focus on the interdependence of regional and local processes.© 2013 The Authors. Oikos © 2013 Nordic Society Oikos.
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The major objective of this study was to estimate heritability and genetic correlations between milk yield (MY) and calving interval (CI) and lactation length (LL) in Murrah buffaloes using Bayesian inference. The database used belongs to the genetic improvement program of four buffalo herds from Brazil. To obtain the estimates of variance and covariance, bivariate analyses were performed with the Gibbs sampler, using the program MTGSAM. The heritability coefficient estimates were 0.28, 0.03 and 0.15 for MY, CI and LL, respectively. The genetic correlations between MY and LL was moderate (0.48). However, the genetic correlation between MY and CI showed large HPD regions (highest posterior density interval). Milk yield was the only trait with clear potential for genetic improvement by direct mass selection. The genetic correlation between MY and LL indicates that indirect selection using milk yield is a potentially beneficialstrategy.Theinterpretation of the estimated genetic correlation between MY and CI is difficult and could be spurious. ©2013 Sociedade Brasileira de Zootecnia.
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In this study, genetic parameters for test-day milk, fat, and protein yield were estimated for the first lactation. The data analyzed consisted of 1,433 first lactations of Murrah buffaloes, daughters of 113 sires from 12 herds in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, with calvings from 1985 to 2007. Ten-month classes of lactation days were considered for the test-day yields. The (co)variance components for the 3 traits were estimated using the regression analyses by Bayesian inference applying an animal model by Gibbs sampling. The contemporary groups were defined as herd-year-month of the test day. In the model, the random effects were additive genetic, permanent environment, and residual. The fixed effects were contemporary group and number of milkings (1 or 2), the linear and quadratic effects of the covariable age of the buffalo at calving, as well as the mean lactation curve of the population, which was modeled by orthogonal Legendre polynomials of fourth order. The random effects for the traits studied were modeled by Legendre polynomials of third and fourth order for additive genetic and permanent environment, respectively, the residual variances were modeled considering 4 residual classes. The heritability estimates for the traits were moderate (from 0.21-0.38), with higher estimates in the intermediate lactation phase. The genetic correlation estimates within and among the traits varied from 0.05 to 0.99. The results indicate that the selection for any trait test day will result in an indirect genetic gain for milk, fat, and protein yield in all periods of the lactation curve. The accuracy associated with estimated breeding values obtained using multi-trait random regression was slightly higher (around 8%) compared with single-trait random regression. This difference may be because to the greater amount of information available per animal. © 2013 American Dairy Science Association.
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A total of 51,161 records of scrotal circumference measurements at 18 mo of age (SCI 8) and 17,648 records of sperm defects and breeding soundness of Nellore bulls (mean age of 22.5 mo), raised under extensive conditions, were analyzed to estimate coefficients of heritability and genetic correlations of morphological semen traits by Bayesian inference. The observed semen traits were classified as minor (MID). major (MAD), and total sperm defects (TD). The animals were classified according to breeding soundness as satisfactory and unsatisfactory potential breeders. The (co)variance components and breeding values were estimated by Gibbs sampling using the GIBBS2F90 program under an animal model that included contemporary group as fixed effect, age of animal as linear covariate, and direct additive genetic effects as random effects. Heritabilities of 0.40 ± 0.02, 0.16 ± 0.02, 0.04 ± 0.01, 0.15 ± 0.01, and 0.10 ± 0.01 were obtained for SCI8, MID, MAD, TD, and breeding soundness, respectively. The SC18 showed a positive and moderate correlation with breeding soundness (0.56 ± 0.04) and a negative and low correlation with MID (-0.23 ± 0.03), MAD (-0.16 ± 0.02), and TD (-0.24 ± 0.02). In conclusion, scrotal circumference showed the best response to selection among the traits studied and was favorably correlated with breeding soundness and sperm morphology in young Nellore bulls. © 2013 American Society of Animal Science. All rights reserved.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)