996 resultados para Autoregressive Process


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According to the account of the European Union (EU) decision making proposed in this paper, this is a bargaining process during which actors shift their policy positions with a view to reaching agreements on controversial issues.

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Current explanatory models for binge eating in binge eating disorder (BED) mostly rely onmodels for bulimianervosa (BN), although research indicates different antecedents for binge eating in BED. This studyinvestigates antecedents and maintaining factors in terms of positive mood, negative mood and tension in asample of 22 women with BED using ecological momentary assessment over a 1-week. Values for negativemood were higher and those for positive mood lower during binge days compared with non-binge days.During binge days, negative mood and tension both strongly and significantly increased and positive moodstrongly and significantly decreased at the first binge episode, followed by a slight though significant, andlonger lasting decrease (negative mood, tension) or increase (positive mood) during a 4-h observation periodfollowing binge eating. Binge eating in BED seems to be triggered by an immediate breakdown of emotionregulation. There are no indications of an accumulation of negative mood triggering binge eating followed byimmediate reinforcing mechanisms in terms of substantial and stable improvement of mood as observed inBN. These differences implicate a further specification of etiological models and could serve as a basis fordeveloping new treatment approaches for BED.

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This study focuses on identification and exploitation processes among Finnish design entrepreneurs (i.e. selfemployed industrial designers). More specifically, this study strives to find out what design entrepreneurs do when they create new ventures, how venture ideas are identified and how entrepreneurial processes are organized to identify and exploit such venture ideas in the given industrial context. Indeed, what does educated and creative individuals do when they decide to create new ventures, where do the venture ideas originally come from, and moreover, how are venture ideas identified and developed into viable business concepts that are introduced on the markets? From an academic perspective: there is a need to increase our understanding of the interaction between the identification and exploitation of emerging ventures, in this and other empirical contexts. Rather than assuming that venture ideas are constant in time, this study examines how emerging ideas are adjusted to enable exploitation in dynamic market settings. It builds on the insights from previous entrepreneurship process research. The interpretations from the theoretical discussion build on the assumption that the subprocesses of identification and exploitation interact, and moreover, they are closely entwined with each other (e.g. McKelvie & Wiklund, 2004, Davidsson, 2005). This explanation challenges the common assumption that entrepreneurs would first identify venture ideas and then exploit them (e.g. Shane, 2003). The assumption is that exploitation influences identification, just as identification influences exploitation. Based on interviews with design entrepreneurs and external actors (e.g. potential customers, suppliers and collaborators), it appears as identification and exploitation of venture ideas are carried out in close interaction between a number of actors, rather than alone by entrepreneurs. Due to their available resources, design entrepreneurs have a desire to focus on identification related activities and to find external actors that take care of exploitation related activities. The involvement of external actors may have a direct impact on decisionmaking and various activities along the processes of identification and exploitation, which is something that previous research does not particularly emphasize. For instance, Bhave (1994) suggests both operative and strategic feedback from the market, but does not explain how external parties are actually involved in the decisionmaking, and in carrying out various activities along the entrepreneurial process.

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Normal visual perception requires differentiating foreground from background objects. Differences in physical attributes sometimes determine this relationship. Often such differences must instead be inferred, as when two objects or their parts have the same luminance. Modal completion refers to such perceptual "filling-in" of object borders that are accompanied by concurrent brightness enhancement, in turn termed illusory contours (ICs). Amodal completion is filling-in without concurrent brightness enhancement. Presently there are controversies regarding whether both completion processes use a common neural mechanism and whether perceptual filling-in is a bottom-up, feedforward process initiating at the lowest levels of the cortical visual pathway or commences at higher-tier regions. We previously examined modal completion (Murray et al., 2002) and provided evidence that the earliest modal IC sensitivity occurs within higher-tier object recognition areas of the lateral occipital complex (LOC). We further proposed that previous observations of IC sensitivity in lower-tier regions likely reflect feedback modulation from the LOC. The present study tested these proposals, examining the commonality between modal and amodal completion mechanisms with high-density electrical mapping, spatiotemporal topographic analyses, and the local autoregressive average distributed linear inverse source estimation. A common initial mechanism for both types of completion processes (140 msec) that manifested as a modulation in response strength within higher-tier visual areas, including the LOC and parietal structures, is demonstrated, whereas differential mechanisms were evident only at a subsequent time period (240 msec), with amodal completion relying on continued strong responses in these structures.

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BACKGROUND: Multiple interventions were made to optimize the medication process in our intensive care unit (ICU). 1 Transcriptions from the medical order form to the administration plan were eliminated by merging both into a single document; 2 the new form was built in a logical sequence and was highly structured to promote completeness and standardization of information; 3 frequently used drug names, approved units, and fixed routes were pre-printed; 4 physicians and nurses were trained with regard to the correct use of the new form. This study was aimed at evaluating the impact of these interventions on clinically significant types of medication errors. METHODS: Eight types of medication errors were measured by a prospective chart review before and after the interventions in the ICU of a public tertiary care hospital. We used an interrupted time-series design to control the secular trends. RESULTS: Over 85 days, 9298 lines of drug prescription and/or administration to 294 patients, corresponding to 754 patient-days were collected and analysed for the three series before and three series following the intervention. Global error rate decreased from 4.95 to 2.14% (-56.8%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The safety of the medication process in our ICU was improved by simple and inexpensive interventions. In addition to the optimization of the prescription writing process, the documentation of intravenous preparation, and the scheduling of administration, the elimination of the transcription in combination with the training of users contributed to reducing errors and carried an interesting potential to increase safety.

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Tissue parasitism, inflammatory process (histologic methods) and sympathetic denervation (glyoxylic acid-induced histofluorescence for demonstration of catecholamines) were studied in the heart (atrium and verntricle) and the submandibular gland of rats infected with the Y strain of Trypanosoma cruzi. In the heart paralleling intense parasitism and inflammatory process, the sympathetic denervation started at day 6 of infection and at the end of the acute phase (day 20) practically no varicose nerve terminals were found in both myocardium and vessels. In the submandibular gland, in spite of the rarity of anastigote pseudocysts and the scarcity of inflammatory foci, slight to moderate (days 13-15 of infection) or moderate to severe denervation (day 20) was found. At day 120 of infection both organs exhibited normal pattern of sympathetic innervation and only the heart showed some inflammatory foci and rare psudocysts (ventricle). Our data suggest the involvement of circulating factors in the sympathetic denervation phenomena but indicate that local inflammatory process is, at least, an aggravating factor.

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This paper contributes to the on-going empirical debate regarding the role of the RBC model and in particular of technology shocks in explaining aggregate fluctuations. To this end we estimate the model’s posterior density using Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Within this framework we extend Ireland’s (2001, 2004) hybrid estimation approach to allow for a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) process to describe the movements and co-movements of the model’s errors not explained by the basic RBC model. The results of marginal likelihood ratio tests reveal that the more general model of the errors significantly improves the model’s fit relative to the VAR and AR alternatives. Moreover, despite setting the RBC model a more difficult task under the VARMA specification, our analysis, based on forecast error and spectral decompositions, suggests that the RBC model is still capable of explaining a significant fraction of the observed variation in macroeconomic aggregates in the post-war U.S. economy.

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The level of information provided by ink evidence to the criminal and civil justice system is limited. The limitations arise from the weakness of the interpretative framework currently used, as proposed in the ASTM 1422-05 and 1789-04 on ink analysis. It is proposed to use the likelihood ratio from the Bayes theorem to interpret ink evidence. Unfortunately, when considering the analytical practices, as defined in the ASTM standards on ink analysis, it appears that current ink analytical practices do not allow for the level of reproducibility and accuracy required by a probabilistic framework. Such framework relies on the evaluation of the statistics of the ink characteristics using an ink reference database and the objective measurement of similarities between ink samples. A complete research programme was designed to (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples in a more reproducible way, (b) comparing automatically and objectively ink samples and (c) evaluate the proposed methodology in a forensic context. This report focuses on the first of the three stages. A calibration process, based on a standard dye ladder, is proposed to improve the reproducibility of ink analysis by HPTLC, when these inks are analysed at different times and/or by different examiners. The impact of this process on the variability between the repetitive analyses of ink samples in various conditions is studied. The results show significant improvements in the reproducibility of ink analysis compared to traditional calibration methods.

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‘Modern’ Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated, or near integrated, process. However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies and so cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agents believe inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories then they are making systematic errors concerning the statistical process of inflation. An alternative theory of the Phillips curve is developed that is consistent with the ‘true’ statistical process of inflation. It is demonstrated that United States inflation data is consistent with the alternative theory but not with the existing ‘modern’ theories.

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We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

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We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

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Immunocompetent microglia play an important role in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Antimicroglial antibodies in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) in clinically diagnosed AD patients have been previously recorded. Here, we report the results of the analysis of the CSF from 38 autopsy cases: 7 with definite AD; 14 with mild and 10 with moderate Alzheimer's type pathology; and 7 controls. Antimicroglial antibodies were identified in 70% of patients with definite AD, in 80% of patients with moderate and in 28% of patients with mild Alzheimer's type pathology. CSF antimicroglial antibodies were not observed in any of the control cases. The results show that CSF antimicroglial antibodies are present in the majority of patients with definite AD and also in cases with moderate Alzheimer's type changes. They may also indicate dysregulation of microglial function. Together with previous observations, these findings indicate that compromised immune defense mechanisms play an important role in the pathogenesis of AD.

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This paper has three objectives. First, it aims at revealing the logic of interest rate setting pursued by monetary authorities of 12 new EU members. Using estimation of an augmented Taylor rule, we find that this setting was not always consistent with the official monetary policy. Second, we seek to shed light on the inflation process of these countries. To this end, we carry out an estimation of an open economy Philips curve (PC). Our main finding is that inflation rates were not only driven by backward persistency but also held a forward-looking component. Finally, we assess the viability of existing monetary arrangements for price stability. The analysis of the conditional inflation variance obtained from GARCH estimation of PC is used for this purpose. We conclude that inflation targeting is preferable to an exchange rate peg because it allowed decreasing the inflation rate and anchored its volatility.