Commodity risks and the cross-section of equity returns

The article examines whether commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of global equity returns. We employ a long-only equally-weighted portfolio of commodity futures and a term structure portfolio that captures phases of backwardation and contango as mimicking portfolios for commodity risk. We find that equity-sorted portfolios with greater sensitivities to the excess returns of the backwardation and contango portfolio command higher average excess returns, suggesting that when measured appropriately, commodity risk is pervasive in stocks. Our conclusions are robust to the addition to the pricing model of financial, macroeconomic and business cycle-based risk factors.

Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: extremes of water scarcity and excess

This paper reviews the current knowledge of climatic risks and impacts in South Asia associated with anthropogenic warming levels of 1.5°C to 4°C above pre-industrial values in the 21st century. It is based on the World Bank Report “Turn Down the Heat, Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience” (2013). Many of the climate change impacts in the region, which appear quite severe even with relatively modest warming of 1.5–2°C, pose significant hazards to development. For example, increased monsoon variability and loss or glacial meltwater will likely confront populations with ongoing and multiple challenges. The result is a significant risk to stable and reliable water resources for the region, with increases in peak flows potentially causing floods and dry season flow reductions threatening agriculture. Irrespective of the anticipated economic development and growth, climate projections indicate that large parts of South Asia’s growing population and especially the poor are likely to remain highly vulnerable to climate change.

Il/legitimate risks? Occupational health and safety and the public in Britain, c. 1960-2015

The last 20 years have seen the emergence of a popular climate of antipathy towards occupational health and safety regulation within the UK, particularly within the mainstream British media. The governance of health and safety has thus in recent years become an increasingly visible and contested public and political issue. The extent of this contestation, and its impact on the State’s governance of health and safety in the workplace and beyond, is explained and historicized within this chapter. Why has public rhetoric about health and safety apparently become so important in framing the ways in which the State could legitimately act in recent years? The chapter demonstrates how since 1960 the State remained a significant player – one among many, admittedly – and that while its roles in managing health and safety had long been bounded by a number of factors, a variable that emerged with particular saliency over the last 20 years has been a mediated notion of ‘public opinion’. This focus serves to remind us of the ways in which State action has at certain moments been pushed in particular directions by factors beyond formal mechanisms of rule.

Risks Associated With Tendinitis: Effects From Demographic, Socioeconomic, and Psychological Status Among Brazilian Workers

Background Self-reported tendinitis/tenosynovitis was evaluated by gender, age group, skin color, family income, and educational and psychological status. Methods The study was carried out in a representative sample of formally contracted Brazilian workers from a household survey. A total of 54,660 participants were included. Occupations were stratified according to estimated prevalences of self-reported injuries. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed, and all variables were analyzed in two occupational groups. Results The overall prevalence rate of tendinitis/tenosynovitis was 3.1%: 5.5% in high-prevalence occupations (n=10,726); and 2.5% in low-prevalence occupations (n=43,934). White female workers between the ages of 45 and 64 years and at a higher socioeconomic level were more likely to report tendinitis/tenosynovitis regardless of their occupational category. An adjusted OR = 3.59 [95% CI: 3.15-4.09] was found between tendinitis/tenosynovitis and psychological status. Conclusion Among formally contracted Brazilian workers, higher income can imply greater physical and psychological demands that, regardless of occupational stratum, increase the risk of tendinitis/tenosynovitis. Am. J. Ind. Med. 53:72-79, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

STABILITY ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS OF A TWO-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM ARISING FROM A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR AN ASSET MARKET

We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a single risky asset market. An advantage of this construction procedure is that the resulting dynamical system becomes a macroscopic market model which mirrors the market quantities and qualities that would typically be taken into account solely at the microscopic level of modeling. The system`s parameters correspond to: (a) the proportion of speculators in a market; (b) the traders` speculative trend; (c) the degree of heterogeneity of idiosyncratic evaluations of the market agents with respect to the asset`s fundamental value; and (d) the strength of the feedback of the population excess demand on the asset price update increment. This correspondence allows us to employ our results in order to infer plausible causes for the emergence of price and demand fluctuations in a real asset market. The employment of dynamical systems for studying evolution of stochastic models of socio-economic phenomena is quite usual in the area of heterogeneous interacting agent models. However, in the vast majority of the cases present in the literature, these dynamical systems are one-dimensional. Our work is among the few in the area that construct and study analytically a two-dimensional dynamical system and apply it for explanation of socio-economic phenomena.

Capital Asset Price Model (CAPM) : uma aplicação ao mercado brasileiro de ações

Este trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar a fundamentação teórica e efetuar uma aplicação prática de uma das mais importantes descobertas no campo das finanças: o modelo de precificação de ativos de capital padrão, denominado de Capital Asset Price Model (CAPM). Na realização da aplicação prática, comparou-se a performance entre os retornos dos investimentos exigidos pelo referido modelo e os realmente obtidos. Foram analisadas cinco ações com a maior participação relativa na carteira teórica do Ibovespa e com retornos publicados de junho de 1998 a maio de 2001. Os dados foram obtidos da Economática da UFRGS e testados utilizando-se o Teste-t (duas amostras em par para médias) na ferramenta MS Excel. Os resultados foram tabelados e analisados, de onde se concluiu que, estatisticamente, com índice de confiança de 95%, não houve diferença de performance entre os retornos esperados e os realmente obtidos dos ativos objeto desta dissertação, no período estudado.

Optimal performance fee and flow of funds in asset management contracts

This paper investigates the importance of ow of funds as an implicit incentive in the asset management industry. We build a two-period bi- nomial moral hazard model to explain the trade-o¤s between ow, per- formance and fees where e¤ort depends on the combination of implicit ( ow of funds) and explicit (performance fee) incentives. Two cases are considered. With full commitment, the investor s relevant trade-o¤ is to give up expected return in the second period vis-à-vis to induce e¤ort in the rst period. The more concerned the investor is with today s pay- o¤, the more willing he will be to give up expected return in the second period by penalizing negative excess return in the rst period. Without full commitment, the investor learns some symmetric and imperfect infor- mation about the ability of the manager to obtain positive excess return. In this case, observed returns reveal ability as well as e¤ort choices. We show that powerful implicit incentives may explain the ow-performance relationship with a numerical solution. Besides, risk aversion explains the complementarity between performance fee and ow of funds.

Tests of conditional asset pricing models in the brazilian stock market

In this paper, we test a version of the conditional CAPM with respect to a local market portfolio, proxied by the Brazilian stock index during the period 1976-1992. We also test a conditional APT modeI by using the difference between the 3-day rate (Cdb) and the overnight rate as a second factor in addition to the market portfolio in order to capture the large inflation risk present during this period. The conditional CAPM and APT models are estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and tested on a set of size portfolios created from individual securities exchanged on the Brazilian markets. The inclusion of this second factor proves to be important for the appropriate pricing of the portfolios.

A stochastic discount factor approach to asset pricing using panel data

Using the Pricing Equation, in a panel-data framework, we construct a novel consistent estimator of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) mimicking portfolio which relies on the fact that its logarithm is the ìcommon featureîin every asset return of the economy. Our estimator is a simple function of asset returns and does not depend on any parametric function representing preferences, making it suitable for testing di§erent preference speciÖcations or investigating intertemporal substitution puzzles.

Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis

Traditionally the issue of an optimum currency area is based on the theoretical underpinnings developed in the 1960s by McKinnon [13], Kenen [12] and mainly Mundell [14], who is concerned with the benefits of lowering transaction costs vis-à- vis adjustments to asymmetrical shocks. Recently, this theme has been reappraised with new aspects included in the analysis, such as: incomplete markets, credibility of monetary policy and seigniorage, among others. For instance, Neumeyer [15] develops a general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets and shows that a monetary union is desirable when the welfare gains of eliminating the exchange rate volatility are greater than the cost of reducing the number of currencies to hedge against risks. In this paper, we also resort to a general equilibrium model to evaluate financial aspects of an optimum currency area. Our focus is to appraise the welfare of a country heavily dependent on foreign capital that may suffer a speculative attack on its public debt. The welfare analysis uses as reference the self-fulfilling debt crisis model of Cole and Kehoe ([6], [7] and [8]), which is employed here to represent dollarization. Under this regime, the national government has no control over its monetary policy, the total public debt is denominated in dollars and it is in the hands of international bankers. To describe a country that is a member of a currency union, we modify the original Cole-Kehoe model by including public debt denominated in common currency, only purchased by national consumers. According to this rule, the member countries regain some influence over the monetary policy decision, which is, however, dependent on majority voting. We show that for specific levels of dollar debt, to create inflation tax on common-currency debt in order to avoid an external default is more desirable than to suspend its payment, which is the only choice available for a dollarized economy when foreign creditors decide not to renew their loans.

Cópulas: uma alternativa para a estimação de modelos de risco multivariados

Dentre os principais desafios enfrentados no cálculo de medidas de risco de portfólios está em como agregar riscos. Esta agregação deve ser feita de tal sorte que possa de alguma forma identificar o efeito da diversificação do risco existente em uma operação ou em um portfólio. Desta forma, muito tem se feito para identificar a melhor forma para se chegar a esta definição, alguns modelos como o Valor em Risco (VaR) paramétrico assumem que a distribuição marginal de cada variável integrante do portfólio seguem a mesma distribuição , sendo esta uma distribuição normal, se preocupando apenas em modelar corretamente a volatilidade e a matriz de correlação. Modelos como o VaR histórico assume a distribuição real da variável e não se preocupam com o formato da distribuição resultante multivariada. Assim sendo, a teoria de Cópulas mostra-se um grande alternativa, à medida que esta teoria permite a criação de distribuições multivariadas sem a necessidade de se supor qualquer tipo de restrição às distribuições marginais e muito menos as multivariadas. Neste trabalho iremos abordar a utilização desta metodologia em confronto com as demais metodologias de cálculo de Risco, a saber: VaR multivariados paramétricos - VEC, Diagonal,BEKK, EWMA, CCC e DCC- e VaR histórico para um portfólio resultante de posições idênticas em quatro fatores de risco – Pre252, Cupo252, Índice Bovespa e Índice Dow Jones

Testes de validade do capital asset pricing model no mercado acionário de São Paulo : um estudo indicativo do poder de teste da metodologia de Fama e Macbeth

Utiliza a técnica de simulação para estimar a "eficiência" de se testar o modelo Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) num mercado com características do mercado acionário paulista, marcado por elevado retorno e alta volatilidade.

Garantias financeiras em seguros vida e previdência: um modelo de avaliação

Recentemente, o mercado brasileiro regulamentou produtos de seguro de vida e previdência com garantia de uma remuneração mínima, a ser corrigida por um índice de preços e acrescida da participação em retorno de fundo específico de investimento. Esta tese vem dar sua contribuição no âmbito da crescente demanda pela avaliação econômico financeira destes produtos. Esta demanda é motivada não apenas pelas exigências regulatórias internacionais mas também pelas necessidades de real percepção dos riscos fincnaceiros envolvidos. Assim, é aqui proposto um modelo de precificação cuja finalidade é permitir a calibragem, dentro de uma condição definida de equilíbrio, dos parâmetros de garantias de um contrato - taxa mínima e participação. Estes são assim determinados em função não só da maturidade estabelecida, como também das expectativas relativas às variáveis de mercado, como taxas de juros, volatilidade dos ativos e índice de preços. O modelo proposto mostrou comportamento similar ao constatado num conjunto referencial de modelos. Por esta razão, sugere-se que ele é adequado, dentro das limitações colocadas, ao processo de precificação dos produtos em questão.

Análise da alocação de ativos para carteiras de planos tradicionais em entidades abertas de previdência complementar

Neste trabalho discutimos a evolução recente do mercado de previdência privada complementar aberta no Brasil, e os principais fatores motivadores dessa evolução. Concentramo-nos na participação dos chamados planos tradicionais de previdência complementar, com mínimos garantidos e reversão de excedentes financeiros. Mostramos que essa modalidade de plano possui um conjunto de opções embutidas que representam direitos do participante, ou cliente, sobre o capital da seguradora ou entidade aberta de previdência complementar (EAPC). Essas opções representam riscos adicionais no balanço da EAPC que não estão necessariamente neutralizados. Para tentar neutralizar esses riscos a gestão dos ativos garantidores dos passivos dos planos tradicionais precisa levar em consideração as características desses passivos. Apresentamos cinco critérios comuns, alguns detalhadamente descritos na literatura de finanças, para escolha e alocação de carteiras de ativos em EAPCs, considerando as especificidades dos planos tradicionais e as suas opções embutidas. Testamos carteiras selecionadas com base nesses critérios para o passado recente e procuramos avaliar o impacto dos resultados na geração de receita esperada por essa modalidade de produto. Os resultados indicam que, quanto mais correlacionada for à performance da carteira de ativos com o perfil de evolução dos passivos, mais eficiente será a neutralização dos riscos representados pelas opções emitidas pela EAPC, e menos volátil será o fluxo de receita gerado por essa modalidade de produto.

Exact arbitrage, well-diversified portfolios and asset pricing in large markets

: In a model of a nancial market with an atomless continuum of assets, we give a precise and rigorous meaning to the intuitive idea of a \well-diversi ed" portfolio and to a notion of \exact arbitrage". We show this notion to be necessary and su cient for an APT pricing formula to hold, to be strictly weaker than the more conventional notion of \asymptotic arbitrage", and to have novel implications for the continuity of the cost functional as well as for various versions of APT asset pricing. We further justify the idealized measure-theoretic setting in terms of a pricing formula based on \essential" risk, one of the three components of a tri-variate decomposition of an asset's rate of return, and based on a speci c index portfolio constructed from endogenously extracted factors and factor loadings. Our choice of factors is also shown to satisfy an optimality property that the rst m factors always provide the best approximation. We illustrate how the concepts and results translate to markets with a large but nite number of assets, and relate to previous work.