Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

Stable carbon isotope ratios in Asian elephant collagen: implications for dietary studies

Stable carbon isotope ratios in bone collagen have been used in a variety of dietary studies in modern and fossil animals, including humans. Inherent in the stable isotope technique is the assumption that the isotopic signature is a reflection of the diet and is persistent in collagen because this is a relatively inert protein. Carbon isotope analyses of bones from a southern Indian population of Asian elephant (Elephas maximus), a long-lived mammal that alternates seasonally between a predominantly C3 (browse) and C4 (grass) plant diet, showed two patterns that have important implications for dietary interpretation based on isotopic studies. Relative to the quantity of the two plant types consumed on average, the ?13C signal in collagen indicated that more carbon was incorporated from C3 plants, possibly due to their higher protein contribution. There was a much greater variance in ?13C values of collagen in sub-adult (range -10.5� to-22.7�, variance=14.51) compared to adult animals (range -16.0� to -20.3�, variance=1.85) pointing to high collagen turnover rates and non-persistent isotopic signatures in younger, growing animals. It thus seems important to correct for any significant relative differences in nutritive value of food types and also consider the age of an animal before drawing definite conclusions about its diet from isotope ratios.

Microstructure evolution during solidification of DRMMCs (discontinuously reinforced metal matrix composites): State of art

Distribution of particle reinforcements in cast composites is determined by the morphology of the solidification front. Interestingly, during solidification, the morphology of the interface is intrinsically affected by the presence of dispersed reinforcements. Thus the dispersoid distribution and length scale of matrix microstructure is a result of the interplay between these two. A proper combination of material and process parameters can be used to obtain composites with tailored microstructures. This requires the generation of a broad data base and optimization of the complete solidification process. The length scale of soldification microtructure has a large influence on the mechanical properties of the composites. This presentation addresses the concept of a particle distribution map which can help in predicting particle distribution under different solidification conditions Future research directions have also been indicated.

Anthropogenic aerosol fraction over Afro-Asian regions inferred using Kalpana-I and MISR data

Mineral dust constitutes the single largest contributor of natural aerosols over continents. The first step towards separating natural aerosol radiative impact from its anthropogenic counterparts over continents is to gather information on dust aerosols. The infrared (IR) radiance (10.5-12.5 mu m) acquired from the Kalpana-I satellite (similar to 8-km resolution) was used to retrieve regional characteristics of dust aerosols over the Afro-Asian region during the winter of 2004, coinciding with a national aerosol campaign. Here, we used aerosol-induced IR radiance depression as an index of dust load. The regional distribution of dust over various arid and semi-arid regions of India and adjacent continents has been estimated, and these data in conjunction with regional maps of column aerosol optical depth (AOD) are used to infer anthropogenic aerosol fraction. Surprisingly, even over desert locations in India and Saudi Arabia, the anthropogenic fraction was relatively high (similar to 0.3 to 0.4) and the regionally averaged anthropogenic fraction over India was 0.62 +/- 0.06.

Population genetic structure and conservation of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) across India

This study examines the population genetic structure of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) across India, which harbours over half the world's population of this endangered species. Mitochondrial DNA control region sequences and allele frequencies at six nuclear DNA microsatellite markers obtained from the dung of free-ranging elephants reveal low mtDNA and typical microsatellite diversity. Both known divergent clades of mtDNA haplotypes in the Asian elephant are present in India, with southern and central India exhibiting exclusively the β clade of Fernando et al. (2000), northern India exhibiting exclusively the α clade and northeastern India exhibiting both, but predominantly the α clade. A nested clade analysis revealed isolation by distance as the principal mechanism responsible for the observed haplotype distributions within the α and β clades. Analyses of molecular variance and pairwise population FST tests based on both mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA suggest that northern-northeastern India, central India, Nilgiris (in southern India) and Anamalai-Periyar (in southern India) are four demographically autonomous population units and should be managed separately. In addition, evidence for female philopatry, male-mediated gene flow and two possible historical biogeographical barriers is described.

The Asian elephants Elephas maximus of Cat Tien National Park, Vietnam: status and conservation of a vanishing population

This study updates the status and conservation of the Endangered Asian elephant Elephas maximus in Cat Tien National Park, Vietnam. Line transect indirect surveys, block surveys for elephant signs, village surveys of elephant-human conflict incidents, guard-post surveys for records of sightings, and surveys of elephant food plants were undertaken during the dry and wet seasons of 2001. A minimum of 11 elephants and a maximum of 15-17 elephants was estimated for c. 500 km2 of the Park and its vicinity. The elephants are largely confined to the southern boundary of the Park and make extensive use of the adjoining La Nga State Forest Enterprises. During the dry season the elephants depend on at least 26 species of wild and cultivated plants, chiefly the fruits of cashew. Most of the villages surveyed reported some elephant-human conflict. Two adult male elephants seem to cover a large area to raid crops, whereas the family groups restrict themselves to a few villages; overall, the conflict is not serious. Since 2001 there have been no reports of any deaths or births of elephants in the Park. We make recommendations for habitat protection and management, increasing the viability of the small population, reducing elephant-human conflicts, and improving the chances of survival of the declining elephants of this Park. The Government has now approved an Action Plan for Urgent Conservation Areas in Vietnam that calls for the establishment of three elephant conservation areas in the country, including Cat Tien National Park.

DNA analysis indicates that Asian elephants are native to Borneo and are therefore a high priority for conservation

The origin of Borneo's elephants is controversial. Two competing hypotheses argue that they are either indigenous, tracing back to the Pleistocene, or were introduced, descending from elephants imported in the 16th-18th centuries. Taxonomically, they have either been classified as a unique subspecies or placed under the Indian or Sumatran subspecies. If shown to be a unique indigenous population, this would extend the natural species range of the Asian elephant by 1300 km, and therefore Borneo elephants would have much greater conservation importance than if they were a feral population. We compared DNA of Borneo elephants to that of elephants from across the range of the Asian elephant, using a fragment of mitochondrial DNA, including part of the hypervariable d-loop, and five autosomal microsatellite loci. We find that Borneo's elephants are genetically distinct, with molecular divergence indicative of a Pleistocene colonisation of Borneo and subsequent isolation. We reject the hypothesis that Borneo's elephants were introduced. The genetic divergence of Borneo elephants warrants their recognition as a separate evolutionary significant unit. Thus, interbreeding Borneo elephants with those from other populations would be contraindicated in ex situ conservation, and their genetic distinctiveness makes them one of the highest priority populations for Asian elephant conservation.

Sustainable biomass production for energy in selected Asian countries

This paper presents a synthesis of assessment of sustainable biomass production potential in six Asian countries-China, India, Malaysia, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Thailand, and is based on the detailed studies carried out in these countries under the Asian Regional Research Programme in Energy, Environment and Climate (ARRPEEC). National level studies were undertaken to estimate land availability for biomass production, identify and evaluate the biomass production options in terms of yield per hectare and financial viability, estimate sustainable biomass production for energy, and estimate the energy potential of biomass production in the six Asian countries. Sustainable biomass production from plantation is estimated to be in the range of 182.5-210.5, 62-310, 0.4-1.7, 3.7-20.4, 2.0-9.9 and 11.6-106.6 Mt yr(-1) for China, India, Malaysia, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Thailand, respectively. The maximum annual electricity generation potential, using advanced technologies, from the sustainable biomass production is estimated to be about 27, 114, 4.5, 79, 254 and 195 percentage of the total electricity generation in year 2000 in China, India, Malaysia, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Thailand, respectively. Investment cost for bioenergy production varies from US$381 to 1842 ha(-1) in the countries considered in this study; investment cost for production of biomass varies from US$5.1 to 23 t(-1). (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of estrus cyclicity in the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) by measurement of fecal progesterone metabolite 5 alpha-P-3OH, using a non-invasive assay

Reproductive management of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) is important for its conservation. To monitor its estrous cyclicity, we earlier used an indirect ELISA to show that levels of fecal progesterone (P(4))-metabolite (allopregnanolone: 5 alpha-P-3OH) in semi-captive females sampled randomly positively correlated with serum P(4) levels [12]. In this longitudinal study (51 weeks), we measured levels of fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH and serum P(4) in seven semi-captive female elephants. Females exhibited three types of hormonal profiles. Four females showed cyclical patterns of fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH and serum P(4) typical of normal estrous cycles, two showed acyclic pattern while one showed high values indicative of a pregnant animal. Values for anestrous or follicular phases were <= 0.3 mu g g(-1), (5 alpha-P-3OH) and <= 0.3 ng mL(-1) (P(4)); for luteal phase 0.32-11.09 mu g g(-1) (5 alpha-P-3OH) and 0.32-1.48 ng mL(-1) (P(4)); for pregnancy 1.41-7.38 mu g g(-1) (5 alpha-P-3OH) and 0.39-1.6 ng mL(-1) (R(4)). A positive correlation (t = 8.8, p < 0.01, n = 321) between levels of fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH and serum P4 was observed. A random sample of 30 free-ranging female elephants showed fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH values of 0.06-23.4 mu g g(-1), indicating them to be in different stages of estrous cyclicity. This study is the first to assess the reproductive phases of female Asian elephants based on the correlative-patterns of both the fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH and serum P(4) values over multiple estrous cycles. This has a potential application in the reproductive management and conservation of Asian elephants. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Monsoon Regimes and Processes in CCSM4. Part I: The Asian-Australian Monsoon

The simulation characteristics of the Asian-Australian monsoon are documented for the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). This is the first part of a two part series examining monsoon regimes in the global tropics in the CCSM4. Comparisons are made to an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulation of the atmospheric component in CCSM4 Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, (CAM4)] to deduce differences in the monsoon simulations run with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and with ocean-atmosphere coupling. These simulations are also compared to a previous version of the model (CCSM3) to evaluate progress. In general, monsoon rainfall is too heavy in the uncoupled AMIP run with CAM4, and monsoon rainfall amounts are generally better simulated with ocean coupling in CCSM4. Most aspects of the Asian-Australian monsoon simulations are improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3. There is a reduction of the systematic error of rainfall over the tropical Indian Ocean for the South Asian monsoon, and well-simulated connections between SSTs in the Bay of Bengal and regional South Asian monsoon precipitation. The pattern of rainfall in the Australian monsoon is closer to observations in part because of contributions from the improvements of the Indonesian Throughflow and diapycnal diffusion in CCSM4. Intraseasonal variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon is much improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3 both in terms of eastward and northward propagation characteristics, though it is still somewhat weaker than observed. An improved simulation of El Nino in CCSM4 contributes to more realistic connections between the Asian-Australian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), though there is considerable decadal and century time scale variability of the strength of the monsoon-ENSO connection.