An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

Estimation of lean meat content in pig carcasses using X-ray Computed Tomography and PLS regression

Lean meat percentage (LMP) is an important carcass quality parameter. The aim of this work is to obtain a calibration equation for the Computed Tomography (CT) scans with the Partial Least Square Regression (PLS) technique in order to predict the LMP of the carcass and the different cuts and to study and compare two different methodologies of the selection of the variables (Variable Importance for Projection — VIP- and Stepwise) to be included in the prediction equation. The error of prediction with cross-validation (RMSEPCV) of the LMP obtained with PLS and selection based on VIP value was 0.82% and for stepwise selection it was 0.83%. The prediction of the LMP scanning only the ham had a RMSEPCV of 0.97% and if the ham and the loin were scanned the RMSEPCV was 0.90%. Results indicate that for CT data both VIP and stepwise selection are good methods. Moreover the scanning of only the ham allowed us to obtain a good prediction of the LMP of the whole carcass.

System GMM estimation with a small sample

Properties of GMM estimators for panel data, which have become very popular in the empirical economic growth literature, are not well known when the number of individuals is small. This paper analyses through Monte Carlo simulations the properties of various GMM and other estimators when the number of individuals is the one typically available in country growth studies. It is found that, provided that some persistency is present in the series, the system GMM estimator has a lower bias and higher efficiency than all the other estimators analysed, including the standard first-differences GMM estimator.

Stability analysis of the 2007 Chehalis lake landslide based on long-range terrestrial photogrammetry and airborne LIDAR data

On December 4th 2007, a 3-Mm3 landslide occurred along the northwestern shore of Chehalis Lake. The initiation zone is located at the intersection of the main valley slope and the northern sidewall of a prominent gully. The slope failure caused a displacement wave that ran up to 38 m on the opposite shore of the lake. The landslide is temporally associated with a rain-on-snow meteorological event which is thought to have triggered it. This paper describes the Chehalis Lake landslide and presents a comparison of discontinuity orientation datasets obtained using three techniques: field measurements, terrestrial photogrammetric 3D models and an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model to describe the orientation and characteristics of the five discontinuity sets present. The discontinuity orientation data are used to perform kinematic, surface wedge limit equilibrium and three-dimensional distinct element analyses. The kinematic and surface wedge analyses suggest that the location of the slope failure (intersection of the valley slope and a gully wall) has facilitated the development of the unstable rock mass which initiated as a planar sliding failure. Results from the three-dimensional distinct element analyses suggest that the presence, orientation and high persistence of a discontinuity set dipping obliquely to the slope were critical to the development of the landslide and led to a failure mechanism dominated by planar sliding. The three-dimensional distinct element modelling also suggests that the presence of a steeply dipping discontinuity set striking perpendicular to the slope and associated with a fault exerted a significant control on the volume and extent of the failed rock mass but not on the overall stability of the slope.

On estimation and identifiability issues of sex-linked inheritance with a case study of pigmentation in Swiss barn owl (Tyto alba)

Genetic evaluation using animal models or pedigree-based models generally assume only autosomal inheritance. Bayesian animal models provide a flexible framework for genetic evaluation, and we show how the model readily can accommodate situations where the trait of interest is influenced by both autosomal and sex-linked inheritance. This allows for simultaneous calculation of autosomal and sex-chromosomal additive genetic effects. Inferences were performed using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA), a nonsampling-based Bayesian inference methodology. We provide a detailed description of how to calculate the inverse of the X- or Z-chromosomal additive genetic relationship matrix, needed for inference. The case study of eumelanic spot diameter in a Swiss barn owl (Tyto alba) population shows that this trait is substantially influenced by variation in genes on the Z-chromosome (sigma(2)(z) = 0.2719 and sigma(2)(a) = 0.4405). Further, a simulation study for this study system shows that the animal model accounting for both autosomal and sex-chromosome-linked inheritance is identifiable, that is, the two effects can be distinguished, and provides accurate inference on the variance components.

Estimation of the radiation risks in diagnostic procedures to populations and patients

Since 1895, when X-rays were discovered, ionizing radiation became part of our life. Its use in medicine has brought significant health benefits to the population globally. The benefit of any diagnostic procedure is to reduce the uncertainty about the patient's health. However, there are potential detrimental effects of radiation exposure. Therefore, radiation protection authorities have become strict regarding the control of radiation risks.¦There are various situations where the radiation risk needs to be evaluated. International authority bodies point to the increasing number of radiologic procedures and recommend population surveys. These surveys provide valuable data to public health authorities which helps them to prioritize and focus on patient groups in the population that are most highly exposed. On the other hand, physicians need to be aware of radiation risks from diagnostic procedures in order to justify and optimize the procedure and inform the patient.¦The aim of this work was to examine the different aspects of radiation protection and investigate a new method to estimate patient radiation risks.¦The first part of this work concerned radiation risk assessment from the regulatory authority point of view. To do so, a population dose survey was performed to evaluate the annual population exposure. This survey determined the contribution of different imaging modalities to the total collective dose as well as the annual effective dose per caput. It was revealed that although interventional procedures are not so frequent, they significantly contribute to the collective dose. Among the main results of this work, it was shown that interventional cardiological procedures are dose-intensive and therefore more attention should be paid to optimize the exposure.¦The second part of the project was related to the patient and physician oriented risk assessment. In this part, interventional cardiology procedures were studied by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The organ radiation doses as well as effective doses were estimated. Cancer incidence risks for different organs were calculated for different sex and age-at-exposure using the lifetime attributable risks provided by the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations Report VII. Advantages and disadvantages of the latter results were examined as an alternative method to estimate radiation risks. The results show that this method is the most accurate, currently available, to estimate radiation risks. The conclusions of this work may guide future studies in the field of radiation protection in medicine.¦-¦Depuis la découverte des rayons X en 1895, ce type de rayonnement a joué un rôle important dans de nombreux domaines. Son utilisation en médecine a bénéficié à la population mondiale puisque l'avantage d'un examen diagnostique est de réduire les incertitudes sur l'état de santé du patient. Cependant, leur utilisation peut conduire à l'apparition de cancers radio-induits. Par conséquent, les autorités sanitaires sont strictes quant au contrôle du risque radiologique.¦Le risque lié aux radiations doit être estimé dans différentes situations pratiques, dont l'utilisation médicale des rayons X. Les autorités internationales de radioprotection indiquent que le nombre d'examens et de procédures radiologiques augmente et elles recommandent des enquêtes visant à déterminer les doses de radiation délivrées à la population. Ces enquêtes assurent que les groupes de patients les plus à risque soient prioritaires. D'un autre côté, les médecins ont également besoin de connaître le risque lié aux radiations afin de justifier et optimiser les procédures et informer les patients.¦Le présent travail a pour objectif d'examiner les différents aspects de la radioprotection et de proposer une manière efficace pour estimer le risque radiologique au patient.¦Premièrement, le risque a été évalué du point de vue des autorités sanitaires. Une enquête nationale a été réalisée pour déterminer la contribution des différentes modalités radiologiques et des divers types d'examens à la dose efficace collective due à l'application médicale des rayons X. Bien que les procédures interventionnelles soient rares, elles contribuent de façon significative à la dose délivrée à la population. Parmi les principaux résultats de ce travail, il a été montré que les procédures de cardiologie interventionnelle délivrent des doses élevées et devraient donc être optimisées en priorité.¦La seconde approche concerne l'évaluation du risque du point de vue du patient et du médecin. Dans cette partie, des procédures interventionnelles cardiaques ont été étudiées au moyen de simulations Monte Carlo. La dose délivrée aux organes ainsi que la dose efficace ont été estimées. Les risques de développer des cancers dans plusieurs organes ont été calculés en fonction du sexe et de l'âge en utilisant la méthode établie dans Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations Report VII. Les avantages et inconvénients de cette nouvelle technique ont été examinés et comparés à ceux de la dose efficace. Les résultats ont montré que cette méthode est la plus précise actuellement disponible pour estimer le risque lié aux radiations. Les conclusions de ce travail pourront guider de futures études dans le domaine de la radioprotection en médicine.

Estimation of sex and age of "virtual skeletons"--a feasibility study.

This article presents a feasibility study with the objective of investigating the potential of multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) to estimate the bone age and sex of deceased persons. To obtain virtual skeletons, the bodies of 22 deceased persons with known age at death were scanned by MDCT using a special protocol that consisted of high-resolution imaging of the skull, shoulder girdle (including the upper half of the humeri), the symphysis pubis and the upper halves of the femora. Bone and soft-tissue reconstructions were performed in two and three dimensions. The resulting data were investigated by three anthropologists with different professional experience. Sex was determined by investigating three-dimensional models of the skull and pelvis. As a basic orientation for the age estimation, the complex method according to Nemeskéri and co-workers was applied. The final estimation was effected using additional parameters like the state of dentition, degeneration of the spine, etc., which where chosen individually by the three observers according to their experience. The results of the study show that the estimation of sex and age is possible by the use of MDCT. Virtual skeletons present an ideal collection for anthropological studies, because they are obtained in a non-invasive way and can be investigated ad infinitum.

Relating the permeability of quartz sands to their grain size and spectral induced polarization characteristics

Recently, Revil & Florsch proposed a novel mechanistic model based on the polarization of the Stern layer relating the permeability of granular media to their spectral induced polarization (SIP) characteristics based on the formation of polarized cells around individual grains. To explore the practical validity of this model, we compare it to pertinent laboratory measurements on samples of quartz sands with a wide range of granulometric characteristics. In particular, we measure the hydraulic and SIP characteristics of all samples both in their loose, non-compacted and compacted states, which might allow for the detection of polarization processes that are independent of the grain size. We first verify the underlying grain size/permeability relationship upon which the model of Revil & Florsch is based and then proceed to compare the observed and predicted permeability values for our samples by substituting the grain size characteristics by corresponding SIP parameters, notably the so-called Cole-Cole time constant. In doing so, we also asses the quantitative impact of an observed shift in the Cole-Cole time constant related to textural variations in the samples and observe that changes related to the compaction of the samples are not relevant for the corresponding permeability predictions. We find that the proposed model does indeed provide an adequate prediction of the overall trend of the observed permeability values, but underestimates their actual values by approximately one order-of-magnitude. This discrepancy in turn points to the potential importance of phenomena, which are currently not accounted for in the model and which tend to reduce the characteristic size of the prevailing polarization cells compared to the considered model, such as, for example, membrane polarization, contacts of double-layers of neighbouring grains, and incorrect estimation of the size of the polarized cells because of the irregularity of natural sand grains.