897 resultados para 2447: modelling and forecasting
Resumo:
Granulation is one of the fundamental operations in particulate processing and has a very ancient history and widespread use. Much fundamental particle science has occurred in the last two decades to help understand the underlying phenomena. Yet, until recently the development of granulation systems was mostly based on popular practice. The use of process systems approaches to the integrated understanding of these operations is providing improved insight into the complex nature of the processes. Improved mathematical representations, new solution techniques and the application of the models to industrial processes are yielding better designs, improved optimisation and tighter control of these systems. The parallel development of advanced instrumentation and the use of inferential approaches provide real-time access to system parameters necessary for improvements in operation. The use of advanced models to help develop real-time plant diagnostic systems provides further evidence of the utility of process system approaches to granulation processes. This paper highlights some of those aspects of granulation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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A systematic goal-driven top-down modelling methodology is proposed that is capable of developing a multiscale model of a process system for given diagnostic purposes. The diagnostic goal-set and the symptoms are extracted from HAZOP analysis results, where the possible actions to be performed in a fault situation are also described. The multiscale dynamic model is realized in the form of a hierarchical coloured Petri net by using a novel substitution place-transition pair. Multiscale simulation that focuses automatically on the fault areas is used to predict the effect of the proposed preventive actions. The notions and procedures are illustrated on some simple case studies including a heat exchanger network and a more complex wet granulation process.
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Evolutionary algorithms perform optimization using a population of sample solution points. An interesting development has been to view population-based optimization as the process of evolving an explicit, probabilistic model of the search space. This paper investigates a formal basis for continuous, population-based optimization in terms of a stochastic gradient descent on the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the model probability density and the objective function, represented as an unknown density of assumed form. This leads to an update rule that is related and compared with previous theoretical work, a continuous version of the population-based incremental learning algorithm, and the generalized mean shift clustering framework. Experimental results are presented that demonstrate the dynamics of the new algorithm on a set of simple test problems.
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While it is well known that reading is highly heritable, less has been understood about the bases of these genetic influences. In this paper, we review the research that we have been conducting in recent years to examine genetic and environmental influences on the particular reading processes specified in the dual-route cognitive model of reading. We argue that a detailed understanding of the role of genetic factors in reading acquisition requires the delineation and measurement of precise phenotypes, derived from well-articulated models of the reading process. We report evidence for independent genetic influences on the lexical and nonlexical reading processes represented in the dual-route model, based on studies of children with particular subtypes of dyslexia, and on univariate and multivariate genetic modelling of reading performance in the normally reading population.
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Aim To develop an appropriate dosing strategy for continuous intravenous infusions (CII) of enoxaparin by minimizing the percentage of steady-state anti-Xa concentration (C-ss) outside the therapeutic range of 0.5-1.2 IU ml(-1). Methods A nonlinear mixed effects model was developed with NONMEM (R) for 48 adult patients who received CII of enoxaparin with infusion durations that ranged from 8 to 894 h at rates between 100 and 1600 IU h(-1). Three hundred and sixty-three anti-Xa concentration measurements were available from patients who received CII. These were combined with 309 anti-Xa concentrations from 35 patients who received subcutaneous enoxaparin. The effects of age, body size, height, sex, creatinine clearance (CrCL) and patient location [intensive care unit (ICU) or general medical unit] on pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters were evaluated. Monte Carlo simulations were used to (i) evaluate covariate effects on C-ss and (ii) compare the impact of different infusion rates on predicted C-ss. The best dose was selected based on the highest probability that the C-ss achieved would lie within the therapeutic range. Results A two-compartment linear model with additive and proportional residual error for general medical unit patients and only a proportional error for patients in ICU provided the best description of the data. Both CrCL and weight were found to affect significantly clearance and volume of distribution of the central compartment, respectively. Simulations suggested that the best doses for patients in the ICU setting were 50 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (4.2 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL < 30 ml min(-1); 60 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.0 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL was 30-50 ml min(-1); and 70 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.8 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL > 50 ml min(-1). The best doses for patients in the general medical unit were 60 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.0 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL < 30 ml min(-1); 70 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.8 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL was 30-50 ml min(-1); and 100 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (8.3 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL > 50 ml min(-1). These best doses were selected based on providing the lowest equal probability of either being above or below the therapeutic range and the highest probability that the C-ss achieved would lie within the therapeutic range. Conclusion The dose of enoxaparin should be individualized to the patients' renal function and weight. There is some evidence to support slightly lower doses of CII enoxaparin in patients in the ICU setting.
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Discrete stochastic simulations are a powerful tool for understanding the dynamics of chemical kinetics when there are small-to-moderate numbers of certain molecular species. In this paper we introduce delays into the stochastic simulation algorithm, thus mimicking delays associated with transcription and translation. We then show that this process may well explain more faithfully than continuous deterministic models the observed sustained oscillations in expression levels of hes1 mRNA and Hes1 protein.
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This paper presents a formal framework for modelling and analysing mobile systems. The framework comprises a collection of models of the dominant design paradigms which are readily extended to incorporate details of particular technologies, i.e., programming languages and their run-time support, and applications. The modelling language is Object-Z, an extension of the well-known Z specification language with explicit support for object-oriented concepts. Its support for object orientation makes Object-Z particularly suited to our task. The system structuring techniques offered by object-orientation are well suited to modelling mobile systems. In addition, inheritance and polymorphism allow us to exploit commonalities in mobile systems by defining more complex models in terms of simpler ones.
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Most recently developed context-aware software applicationsmake unrealistic assumptions about the quality of the available context information, which can lead to inappropriate actions by the application and frustration on the part of the user. In this paper, we explore the problem of imperfect context information and some of its causes, and propose a novel approach for modelling incomplete and inaccurate information. Additionally, we present a discussion of our experiences in developing a contextaware communication application, highlighting design issues that are pertinent when developing applications that rely on imperfect context information.
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A stochastic model for solute transport in aquifers is studied based on the concepts of stochastic velocity and stochastic diffusivity. By applying finite difference techniques to the spatial variables of the stochastic governing equation, a system of stiff stochastic ordinary differential equations is obtained. Both the semi-implicit Euler method and the balanced implicit method are used for solving this stochastic system. Based on the Karhunen-Loeve expansion, stochastic processes in time and space are calculated by means of a spatial correlation matrix. Four types of spatial correlation matrices are presented based on the hydraulic properties of physical parameters. Simulations with two types of correlation matrices are presented.