The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.

Can we predict when “dying” will be difficult?: Progressive achievements in L2 English

A large body of research has focused on the observation that second language (L2) learners are limited in their production of temporal and aspectual forms. For example, in L2 English, it has been shown learners use progressive marking with activity verbs and only rarely extend the form to telic verb phrases such as accomplishments or achievements (Bardovi-Harlig and Reynolds, 1995; Bardovi-Harlig, 2000; Robison, 1995). Shirai and Andersen (1995) proposed that activities represent the prototype for the category of progressive aspect and learners generally acquire the prototype first. However, very little research has focused explicitly on advanced learners to see if they eventually extend beyond the prototype. In addition, properties of the native language have not systematically been taken into account. Achievements such as "die" are especially interesting in that they interact differently with markers of progressive aspect across languages. The present study investigated the acquisition of progressive achievements in English by native speakers of Chinese and Korean in order to examine whether there is evidence of universal difficulty, as would be predicted by the prototype account, or whether similarity between the L1 and L2 (as in the case of English and Korean) can facilitate acquisition, as would be predicted by transfer. Our results suggest that the properties of the native language play an important role, supporting the transfer account. However, neither L1 group performs at the level of native speakers. We argue that the acquisition of aspect is influenced by both the properties of the native language and the semantic and pragmatic complexity of the target computation.

Trans-floating-point arithmetic removes nine quadrillion redundancies from 64-bit IEEE 754 floating-point arithmetic

IEEE 754 floating-point arithmetic is widely used in modern, general-purpose computers. It is based on real arithmetic and is made total by adding both a positive and a negative infinity, a negative zero, and many Not-a-Number (NaN) states. Transreal arithmetic is total. It also has a positive and a negative infinity but no negative zero, and it has a single, unordered number, nullity. Modifying the IEEE arithmetic so that it uses transreal arithmetic has a number of advantages. It removes one redundant binade from IEEE floating-point objects, doubling the numerical precision of the arithmetic. It removes eight redundant, relational,floating-point operations and removes the redundant total order operation. It replaces the non-reflexive, floating-point, equality operator with a reflexive equality operator and it indicates that some of the exceptions may be removed as redundant { subject to issues of backward compatibility and transient future compatibility as programmers migrate to the transreal paradigm.

Dissecting the illegal ivory trade: an analysis of ivory seizures data

Reliable evidence of trends in the illegal ivory trade is important for informing decision making for elephants but it is difficult to obtain due to the covert nature of the trade. The Elephant Trade Information System, a global database of reported seizures of illegal ivory, holds the only extensive information on illicit trade available. However inherent biases in seizure data make it difficult to infer trends; countries differ in their ability to make and report seizures and these differences cannot be directly measured. We developed a new modelling framework to provide quantitative evidence on trends in the illegal ivory trade from seizures data. The framework used Bayesian hierarchical latent variable models to reduce bias in seizures data by identifying proxy variables that describe the variability in seizure and reporting rates between countries and over time. Models produced bias-adjusted smoothed estimates of relative trends in illegal ivory activity for raw and worked ivory in three weight classes. Activity is represented by two indicators describing the number of illegal ivory transactions--Transactions Index--and the total weight of illegal ivory transactions--Weights Index--at global, regional or national levels. Globally, activity was found to be rapidly increasing and at its highest level for 16 years, more than doubling from 2007 to 2011 and tripling from 1998 to 2011. Over 70% of the Transactions Index is from shipments of worked ivory weighing less than 10 kg and the rapid increase since 2007 is mainly due to increased consumption in China. Over 70% of the Weights Index is from shipments of raw ivory weighing at least 100 kg mainly moving from Central and East Africa to Southeast and East Asia. The results tie together recent findings on trends in poaching rates, declining populations and consumption and provide detailed evidence to inform international decision making on elephants.

Grammatical abilities of Greek-speaking children with autism

This study investigates pronoun reference and verbs with non-active morphology in high functioning Greek-speaking children with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD). It is motivated by problems with reflexive pronouns demonstrated by English-speaking children with ASD, and the fact that reflexivity is additionally expressed via non-active (reflexive) verbs in Greek. Twenty 5- to 8-year-old children with ASD and twenty vocabulary matched typically developing controls of the same age range completed a sentence-picture matching, an elicitation, and a judgment task. Children with ASD did not differ from controls in interpreting reflexive and strong pronouns, but were less accurate in the comprehension of clitics and omitted clitics in their production. The findings render clitics a vulnerable domain for autism in Greek, and potentially for other languages with clitics, and suggest that this could be a consequence of difficulties in the syntax-pragmatics or the syntax-phonology interface. The two groups did not differ in the comprehension of non-active morphology, but were less accurate in passive than reflexive verbs. This difference is likely to stem from the linguistic representation associated with each type of verb, rather than their input frequency.

The impact of number mismatch and passives on the real-time processing of relative clauses

Language processing plays a crucial role in language development, providing the ability to assign structural representations to input strings (e.g., Fodor, 1998). In this paper we aim at contributing to the study of children's processing routines, examining the operations underlying the auditory processing of relative clauses in children compared to adults. English-speaking children (6–8;11) and adults participated in the study, which employed a self-paced listening task with a final comprehension question. The aim was to determine (i) the role of number agreement in object relative clauses in which the subject and object NPs differ in terms of number properties, and (ii) the role of verb morphology (active vs. passive) in subject relative clauses. Even though children's off-line accuracy was not always comparable to that of adults, analyses of reaction times results support the view that children have the same structural processing reflexes observed in adults.

Rule-based morphological processing in a second language: a behavioural investigation

According to dual-system accounts of English past-tense processing, regular forms are decomposed into their stem and affix (played=play+ed) based on an implicit linguistic rule, whereas irregular forms (kept) are retrieved directly from the mental lexicon. In second language (L2) processing research, it has been suggested that L2 learners do not have rule-based decomposing abilities, so they process regular past-tense forms similarly to irregular ones (Silva & Clahsen 2008), without applying the morphological rule. The present study investigates morphological processing of regular and irregular verbs in Greek-English L2 learners and native English speakers. In a masked-priming experiment with regular and irregular prime-target verb pairs (playedplay/kept-keep), native speakers showed priming effects for regular pairs, compared to unrelated pairs, indicating decomposition; conversely, L2 learners showed inhibitory effects. At the same time, both groups revealed priming effects for irregular pairs. We discuss these findings in the light of available theories on L2 morphological processing.

The acquisition of person and number morphology within the verbal domain in Early Greek

The aim of this paper is to examine the acquisition pattern of person and number verb morphology within the generative framework and to compare the results of the analyses with previous research in Greek and other European languages. The study considers previous data on the acquisition of subject-verb agreement, and thereafter, examines the acquisition of person and number morphology in a new dataset of two monolingual Greek-speaking children. The analyses present quantitative data of accuracy of person and number marking, error data, and qualitative analyses addressing the productivity of person and number marking. The results suggest that person and number morphology is used correctly and productively from a very early age in Greek speaking children. The findings provide new insight into early Greek language acquisition and are also relevant for research in early development of languages with rich inflectional morphology.

Consumer acceptability and sensory profile of cooked broccoli with mustard seeds added to improve chemoprotective properties

Broccoli, a rich source of glucosinolates, is a commonly consumed vegetable of the Brassica family. Hydrolysis products of glucosinolates, isothiocyanates, have been associated with health benefits and contribute to the flavour of Brassica. However, boiling broccoli causes the myrosinase enzyme needed for hydrolysis to denature. In order to ensure hydrolysis, broccoli must either be mildly cooked or active sources of myrosinase, such as mustard seed powder, can be added post-cooking. In this study, samples of broccoli were prepared in six different ways; standard boiling with and without mustard seeds, sous-vide cooking at low temperature (70 °C) and sous-vide cooking at higher temperature (100 ºC) without mustard and with mustard at two different concentrations. The majority of consumers disliked the mildly cooked broccoli samples (70 ºC, 12 min, sous-vide) which had a hard and stringy texture. The highest mean consumer liking was for standard boiled samples (100 ºC, 7 min). Addition of 1% mustard seed powder developed sensory attributes such as pungency, burning sensation, mustard odour and flavour. One cluster of consumers (32%) found mustard seeds to be a good complement to cooked broccoli, however, the majority disliked the mustard-derived sensory attributes. Where the mustard seeds were partially processed, doubling the addition to 2% led to only the same level of mustard flavour and pungency as 1% unprocessed seeds, and mean consumer liking remained unaltered. This suggests that optimisation of the addition level of partially processed mustard seeds may be a route to enhance bioactivity of cooked broccoli without compromising consumer acceptability.

Origin and impact of initialisation shocks in coupled atmosphere-ocean forecasts

Current methods for initialising coupled atmosphere-ocean forecasts often rely on the use of separate atmosphere and ocean analyses, the combination of which can leave the coupled system imbalanced at the beginning of the forecast, potentially accelerating the development of errors. Using a series of experiments with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts coupled system, the magnitude and extent of these so-called initialisation shocks is quantified, and their impact on forecast skill measured. It is found that forecasts initialised by separate ocean and atmospheric analyses do exhibit initialisation shocks in lower atmospheric temperature, when compared to forecasts initialised using a coupled data assimilation method. These shocks result in as much as a doubling of root-mean-square error on the first day of the forecast in some regions, and in increases that are sustained for the duration of the 10-day forecasts performed here. However, the impacts of this choice of initialisation on forecast skill, assessed using independent datasets, were found to be negligible, at least over the limited period studied. Larger initialisation shocks are found to follow a change in either the atmospheric or ocean model component between the analysis and forecast phases: changes in the ocean component can lead to sea surface temperature shocks of more than 0.5K in some equatorial regions during the first day of the forecast. Implications for the development of coupled forecast systems, particularly with respect to coupled data assimilation methods, are discussed.

On aposteriori error analysis of dG schemes approximating hyperbolic conservation laws

This contribution is concerned with aposteriori error analysis of discontinuous Galerkin (dG) schemes approximating hyperbolic conservation laws. In the scalar case the aposteriori analysis is based on the L1 contraction property and the doubling of variables technique. In the system case the appropriate stability framework is in L2, based on relative entropies. It is only applicable if one of the solutions, which are compared to each other, is Lipschitz. For dG schemes approximating hyperbolic conservation laws neither the entropy solution nor the numerical solution need to be Lipschitz. We explain how this obstacle can be overcome using a reconstruction approach which leads to an aposteriori error estimate.

The inconstancy of the transient climate response parameter under increasing CO₂

In the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the model-mean increase in global mean surface air temperature T under the 1pctCO2 scenario (atmospheric CO2 increasing at 1% yr−1) during the second doubling of CO2 is 40% larger than the transient climate response (TCR), i.e. the increase in T during the first doubling. We identify four possible contributory effects. First, the surface climate system loses heat less readily into the ocean beneath as the latter warms. The model spread in the thermal coupling between the upper and deep ocean largely explains the model spread in ocean heat uptake efficiency. Second, CO2 radiative forcing may rise more rapidly than logarithmically with CO2 concentration. Third, the climate feedback parameter may decline as the CO2 concentration rises. With CMIP5 data, we cannot distinguish the second and third possibilities. Fourth, the climate feedback parameter declines as time passes or T rises; in 1pctCO2, this effect is less important than the others. We find that T projected for the end of the twenty-first century correlates more highly with T at the time of quadrupled CO2 in 1pctCO2 than with the TCR, and we suggest that the TCR may be underestimated from observed climate change.

Processing of zero-derived words in English: an fMRI investigation

Derivational morphological processes allow us to create new words (e.g. punish (V) to noun (N) punishment) from base forms. The number of steps from the basic units to derived words often varies (e.g., nationalitybridge-V) i.e., zero-derivation ( Aronoff, 1980). We compared the processing of one-step (soakingverbs since the suffix -ing can only be attached to verb roots. Crucially, the verb root is the basic form for the one-step words, whereas for the two-step words the verb root is zero derived from a basic noun. Significantly increased brain activity was observed for complex (one-step and two-step) versus simple (zero-step) forms in regions involved in morphological processing, such as the left inferior frontal gyrus (LIFG). Critically, activation was also more pronounced for two-step compared to one-step forms. Since both types of derived words have the same surface structure, our findings suggest that morphological processing is based on underlying morphological complexity, independent of overt affixation. This study is the first to provide evidence for the processing of zero derivation, and demonstrates that morphological processing cannot be reduced to surface form-based segmentation.

Children’s and Adults’ Processing of Anomaly and Implausibility during Reading: Evidence from Eye Movements

The eye movements of 24 children and 24 adults were monitored to compare how they read sentences containing plausible, implausible, and anomalous thematic relations. In the implausible condition the incongruity occurred due to the incompatibility of two objects involved in the event denoted by the main verb. In the anomalous condition the direct object of the verb was not a possible verb argument. Adults exhibited immediate disruption with the anomalous sentences as compared to the implausible sentences as indexed by longer gaze durations on the target word. Children exhibited the same pattern of effects as adults as far as the anomalous sentences were concerned, but exhibited delayed effects of implausibility. These data indicate that while children and adults are alike in their basic thematic assignment processes during reading, children may be delayed in the efficiency with which they are able to integrate pragmatic and real world knowledge into their discourse representation.

Second language influence on first language motion event encoding and categorization in Spanish-speaking children learning L2 English

Studies show cross-linguistic differences in motion event encoding, such that English speakers preferentially encode manner of motion more than Spanish speakers, who preferentially encode path of motion. Focusing on native Spanish speaking children (aged 5;00-9;00) learning L2 English, we studied path and manner verb preferences during descriptions of motion stimuli, and tested the linguistic relativity hypothesis by investigating categorization preferences in a non-verbal similarity judgement task of motion clip triads. Results revealed L2 influence on L1 motion event encoding, such that bilinguals used more manner verbs and fewer path verbs in their L1, under the influence of English. We found no effects of linguistic structure on non-verbal similarity judgements, and demonstrate for the first time effects of L2 on L1 lexicalization in child L2 learners in the domain of motion events. This pattern of verbal behaviour supports theories of bilingual semantic representation that postulate a merged lexico-semantic system in early bilinguals.