Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Kits and methods for diagnosis, screening, treatment and disease monitoring [WO 2015048852 A1]

Disclosed are methods for detecting the presence of a carcinoma or an increased likelihood that a carcinoma is present in a subject. More particularly, the present invention discloses methods for diagnosis, screening, treatment and monitoring of carcinomas associated with aberrant DNA methylation of the MED15 promoter region

A multimarker approach to diagnose and stratify heart failure

Background We have previously demonstrated that circulating NT-proBNP is truncated at the N and C termini. Aims of this study are three-fold: firstly to determine whether the NT-proBNP levels correlate with NYHA functional classes when measuring with different antibody pairs; secondly to evaluate the diagnostic potential of ProBNP and; thirdly to investigate whether combining NT-proBNP assays with or without ProBNP would lead to better diagnostic accuracies. Methods Plasma samples were collected from healthy controls (n = 52) and HF patients (n = 46). Customized AlphaLISA® immunoassays were developed and validated to measure the concentrations of proBNP and NT-proBNP (with antibodies targeting 13–45, 13–76, 28–76). The diagnostic performance and predictive value of proBNP and NT-proBNP assays and their combinations were evaluated. Results Plasma proBNP assay showed acceptable diagnostic performance. NT-proBNP13–76 assay is useful in diagnosing and stratifying HF patients. The diagnostic performance of NT-proBNP13–76 demonstrated improvement over commercial NT-proBNP tests. The combination of NT-proBNP13–76 with NT-proBNP28–76 assays gave the best diagnostic assay performance. Conclusion Our results demonstrate that while there is major heterogeneity in circulating NT-proBNP, specific epitopes of the peptides are extraordinarily stable, providing ideal targets for clinically useful diagnostic assays. Future new clinical diagnostic clinical trials should include a multimarker approach rather than using a single marker to diagnose HF.

Role of enhanced vector transmission of a new West Nile virus strain in an outbreak of equine disease in Australia in 2011

Background In 2011, a variant of West Nile virus Kunjin strain (WNVKUN) caused an unprecedented epidemic of neurological disease in horses in southeast Australia, resulting in almost 1,000 cases and a 9% fatality rate. We investigated whether increased fitness of the virus in the primary vector, Culex annulirostris, and another potential vector, Culex australicus, contributed to the widespread nature of the outbreak. Methods Mosquitoes were exposed to infectious blood meals containing either the virus strain responsible for the outbreak, designated WNVKUN2011, or WNVKUN2009, a strain of low virulence that is typical of historical strains of this virus. WNVKUN infection in mosquito samples was detected using a fixed cell culture enzyme immunoassay and a WNVKUN- specific monoclonal antibody. Probit analysis was used to determine mosquito susceptibility to infection. Infection, dissemination and transmission rates for selected days post-exposure were compared using Fisher’s exact test. Virus titers in bodies and saliva expectorates were compared using t-tests. Results There were few significant differences between the two virus strains in the susceptibility of Cx. annulirostris to infection, the kinetics of virus replication and the ability of this mosquito species to transmit either strain. Both strains were transmitted by Cx. annulirostris for the first time on day 5 post-exposure. The highest transmission rates (proportion of mosquitoes with virus detected in saliva) observed were 68% for WNVKUN2011 on day 12 and 72% for WNVKUN2009 on day 14. On days 12 and 14 post-exposure, significantly more WNVKUN2011 than WNVKUN2009 was expectorated by infected mosquitoes. Infection, dissemination and transmission rates of the two strains were not significantly different in Culex australicus. However, transmission rates and the amount of virus expectorated were significantly lower in Cx. australicus than Cx. annulirostris. Conclusions The higher amount of WNVKUN2011 expectorated by infected mosquitoes may be an indication that this virus strain is transmitted more efficiently by Cx. annulirostris compared to other WNVKUN strains. Combined with other factors, such as a convergence of abundant mosquito and wading bird populations, and mammalian and avian feeding behaviour by Cx. annulirostris, this may have contributed to the scale of the 2011 equine epidemic.

Wolbachia reduces the transmission potential of Dengue-infected Aedes aegypti

BACKGROUND: Dengue viruses (DENV) are the causative agents of dengue, the world's most prevalent arthropod-borne disease with around 40% of the world's population at risk of infection annually. Wolbachia pipientis, an obligate intracellular bacterium, is being developed as a biocontrol strategy against dengue because it limits replication of the virus in the mosquito. The Wolbachia strain wMel, which has been introduced into the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, has been shown to invade and spread to near fixation in field releases. Standard measures of Wolbachia's efficacy for blocking virus replication focus on the detection and quantification of virus in mosquito tissues. Examining the saliva provides a more accurate measure of transmission potential and can reveal the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), that is, the time it takes virus to arrive in the saliva following the consumption of DENV viremic blood. EIP is a key determinant of a mosquito's ability to transmit DENVs, as the earlier the virus appears in the saliva the more opportunities the mosquito will have to infect humans on subsequent bites. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a non-destructive assay to repeatedly quantify DENV in saliva from wMel-infected and Wolbachia-free wild-type control mosquitoes following the consumption of a DENV-infected blood meal. We show that wMel lengthens the EIP, reduces the frequency at which the virus is expectorated and decreases the dengue copy number in mosquito saliva as compared to wild-type mosquitoes. These observations can at least be partially explained by an overall reduction in saliva produced by wMel mosquitoes. More generally, we found that the concentration of DENV in a blood meal is a determinant of the length of EIP, saliva virus titer and mosquito survival. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The saliva-based traits reported here offer more disease-relevant measures of Wolbachia's effects on the vector and the virus. The lengthening of EIP highlights another means, in addition to the reduction of infection frequencies and DENV titers in mosquitoes, by which Wolbachia should operate to reduce DENV transmission in the field.

Runs of homozygosity and a cluster of vulvar cancer in young Australian Aboriginal women

Objective A cluster of vulvar cancer exists in young Aboriginal women living in remote communities in Arnhem Land, Australia. A genetic case–control study was undertaken involving 30 cases of invasive vulvar cancer and its precursor lesion, high-grade vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN), and 61 controls, matched for age and community of residence. It was hypothesized that this small, isolated population may exhibit increased autozygosity, implicating recessive effects as a possible mechanism for increased susceptibility to vulvar cancer. Methods Genotyping data from saliva samples were used to identify runs of homozygosity (ROH) in order to calculate estimates of genome-wide homozygosity. Results No evidence of an effect of genome-wide homozygosity on vulvar cancer and VIN in East Arnhem women was found, nor was any individual ROH found to be significantly associated with case status. This study found further evidence supporting an association between previous diagnosis of CIN and diagnosis of vulvar cancer or VIN, but found no association with any other medical history variable. Conclusions These findings do not eliminate the possibility of genetic risk factors being involved in this cancer cluster, but rather suggest that alternative analytical strategies and genetic models should be explored.

The effects of salivary gland extracts from Boophilus microplus ticks on mitogen-stimulated bovine lymphocytes

The effect of salivary gland extract (SGE) from the tick Boophilus microplus was examined in mitogen-stimulated lymphocytes in vitro. SGE was added to lymphocytes of seven cattle together with the mitogens concanavalin A (ConA), phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) and pokeweed mitogen (PWM). Semi-purified B cells from another seven cattle were stimulated with the mitogen lipopolysaccharide (LPS). PHA and ConA stimulated proliferation of lymphocytes to the same extent, but the inhibition due to SGE of Boophilus microplus on the proliferative response stimulated by PHA (39.0% ± 9.3%) was less than the inhibition of proliferative response stimulated by ConA (75.4% ± 6.9%). In contrast, SGE of B. microplus stimulated the proliferation of B cells in the presence of LPS in a dose-dependent manner. Enhanced stimulation of B cells by SGE at >4 μg in culture was greater than twice that observed when B cells were stimulated by LPS alone. SGE does not have a direct suppressive effect on bovine B cell proliferation; however, in vivo the effectiveness of B cell responses might be influenced by other immune factors, such as cytokine profiles.

A liquid biopsy for head and neck cancers

Head and neck cancer patients often present with advanced metastatic disease resulting in a poor 5-year survival. Therefore, there is a need for non-invasive diagnostic tools that could complement conventional imaging to inform clinicians of patient outcomes and treatment responses. A liquid biopsy addresses this unmet clinical need; a simple peripheral blood draw could provide information about the disseminated disease in terms of circulating tumor cells and circulating tumor DNA. Moreover, detectable tumor DNA in the saliva of head and neck cancer patients could signify the early signs of the disease and present an opportunity for clinical intervention. This review provides an overview of the current literature with regard to the feasibility of such a test in the head and neck cancer field and highlights the need for such a test.

The physiological and metabolic impacts on sheep and cattle of feed and water deprivation before and during transport

Sheep and cattle are frequently subjected to feed and water deprivation (FWD) for about 12 h before, and then during, transport to reduce digesta load in the gastrointestinal tract. This FWD is marked by weight loss as urine and faeces mainly in the first 24 h but continuing at a reduced rate subsequently. The weight of rumen contents falls although water loss is to some extent masked by saliva inflow. FWD is associated with some stress, particularly when transportation is added. This is indicated by increased levels of plasma cortisol that may be partly responsible for an observed increase in the output of water and N in urine and faeces. Loss of body water induces dehydration that may induce feelings of thirst by effects on the hypothalamus structures through the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system. There are suggestions that elevated cortisol levels depress angiotensin activity and prevent sensations of thirst in dehydrated animals, but further research in this area is needed. Dehydration coupled with the discharge of Na in urine challenges the maintenance of homeostasis. In FWD, Na excretion in urine is reduced and, with the reduction in digesta load, Na is gradually returned from the digestive tract to the extracellular fluid space. Control of enteropathogenic bacteria by normal rumen microbes is weakened by FWD and resulting infections may threaten animal health and meat safety. Recovery time is required after transport to restore full feed intake and to ensure that adequate glycogen is present in muscle pre-slaughter to maintain meat quality.

Differences between the in vitro digestibility of extrusa collected from oesophageal fistulated steers and the forage consumed.

In a study that included C-4 tropical grasses, C-3 temperate grasses and C-3 pasture legumes, in vitro dry matter digestibility of extrusa, measured as in vitro dry matter loss (IVDML) during incubation, compared with that of the forage consumed, was greater for grass extrusa but not for legume extrusa. The increase in digestibility was not caused by mastication or by the freezing of extrusa samples during storage but by the action of saliva. Comparable increases in IVDML were achieved merely by mixing bovine saliva with ground forage samples. Differences were greater than could be explained by increases due to completely digestible salivary DM. There was no significant difference between animals in relation to the saliva effect on IVDML and, except for some minor differences, similar saliva effects on IVDML were measured using either the pepsin-cellulase or rumen fluid-pepsin in vitro techniques. For both C-4 and C-3 grasses the magnitude of the differences were inversely related to IVDML of the feed and there was little or no difference between extrusa and feed at high digestibilities (>70%) whereas differences of more than 10 percentage units were measured on low quality grass forages. The data did not suggest that the extrusa or saliva effect on digestibility was different for C-3 grasses than for C-4 grasses but data on C-3 grasses were limited to few species and to high digestibility samples. For legume forages there was no saliva effect when the pepsin-cellulase method was used but there was a small but significant positive effect using the rumen fluid-pepsin method. It was concluded that when samples of extrusa are analysed using in vitro techniques, predicted in vivo digestibility of the feed consumed will often be overestimated, especially for low quality grass diets. The implications of overestimating in vivo digestibility and suggestions for overcoming such errors are discussed.

Probiotic activity of Lactobacillus delbrueckii subsp. bulgaricus in the oral cavity

Yogurt consumption has been related to longevity of some populations living on the Balkans. Yogurt starter L. delbrueckii subsp. bulgaricus and Str. thermophilus have been recognized as probiotics with verified beneficial health effects. The oral cavity emerges as a arget for probiotic applications. Probiotics have demonstrated promising results in controlling dental diseases and oral yeast infections. However, L. bulgaricus despite its broad availability in dairy products has not been evaluated for probiotic activity in the mouth. These series of studies investigated in vitro properties of L. bulgaricus to outline its potential as an oral probiotic. Prerequisite probiotic properties in the mouth are resistance to oral defense mechanisms, adherence to saliva-coated surfaces, and inhibition of oral pathogens. L. bulgaricus strains showed a strain-dependent inhibition of oral streptococci and Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, whereas none of the dairy starter strains could affect growth of Porphyromonas gingivalis and Fusobacterium nucleatum. Adhesion is a factor contributing to colonization of the species at the target site. Radiolabeled L. bulgaricus strains and L. rhamnosus GG were tested for their ability to adhere to saliva-coated surfaces. The effects of lysozyme on adhesion and adhesion of Streptococcus sanguinis after lactobacilli pretreatment were also assessed. Adhesion of L. bulgaricus remained lower in comparison to L. rhamnosus GG. One L. bulgaricus strain showed binding frequency comparable to S. sanguinis. Lysozyme pretreatment significantly increased Lactobacillus adhesion. Low gelatinolytic activity was observed for all strains and no conversion of proMMP-9 to its active form was induced by L. bulgaricus. Safety assessment ruled out deleterious effects of L. bulgaricus on extracellular matrix structures. Cytokine response of oral epithelial cells was assessed by measuring IL-8 and TNF-α in cell culture supernatants. The effect of P. gingivalis on cytokine secretion after lactobacilli pretreatment was also assessed. A strain- and time-dependent induction of IL-8 was observed with live bacteria inducing the highest levels of cytokine secretion. Levels of TNF-α were low and only one of ten L. bulgaricus strains stimulated TNF-α secretion similar to positive control. The addition of P. gingivalis produced immediate reduction of cytokine levels within the first hours of incubation irrespective of lactobacilli strains co-cultured with epithelial cells. According to these studies strains among the L. delbrueckii subsp. bulgaricus species may have beneficial probiotic properties in the mouth. Their potential in prevention and management of common oral infectious diseases needs to be further studied.

Commercial products from bio-active extractives in cypress milling residues.

Extractive components obtained from milling residues of white cypress were studied for chemical identity and bioactivity with a view to developing a commercial use for these components, thus increasing the value of the residues and improving the economics of cypress sawn wood production. Extracts obtained by solvent or steam extraction techniques from cypress sawdust were each fractionated by a range of techniques into groups of similar compounds. Crude extracts and fractions were screened against a range of agricultural pests and diseases, including two fungi, subterranean termites, fruit spotting bugs, two-spotted mites, thrips, heliothis, banana scab moths, silverleaf whiteflies, cattle tick adults and larvae, and ruminant gastrointestinal nematodes. Additional screening was undertaken where encouraging results were achieved, for two-spotted mites, thrips, silverleaf whiteflies, cattle tick adults and ruminant gastrointestinal nematodes. After considering degrees of efficacy against, and economic importance of, the agricultural pests, and likely production costs of extracts and fractions, the crude extract (oil) produced by steam distillation was chosen for further study against silverleaf whitefly. A useful degree of control was achievable when this oil was applied to tomato or eggplant at 0.1%, with much less harmful effects on a beneficial insect. Activity of the oil against silverleaf whitefly was undiminished 3.5 years after it was generated. There was little benefit from supplementing the extract with co-formulated paraffinic oil. From the steam distilled oil, fifty-five compounds were characterised, thirty-five compounds representing 92.478 % of the oil, with guaiol (20.8%) and citronellic acid (15.9%) most abundant. These two compounds, and a group of oxygenated compounds containing bulnesol and a range of eudesmols, were found to account for most of the activity against silverleaf whitefly. This application was recommended for first progression to commercialisation.

Swan’s Lagoon Celebrating 50 years

Swan’s Lagoon, which is 125 km south-south-west of Townsville, was purchased by the Queensland Government as a beef cattle research station in 1961. It is situated within the seasonally-dry tropical spear grass region of North Queensland. The station was expanded from 80 km2 to 340 km2 by purchase of the adjoining Expedition block in 1978. The first advisory committee formed and initiated research in 1961. The median annual rainfall of 708 mm (28 inches) is highly variable, with over 80% usually falling in December–April. Annual evaporation is 2.03 metres. The 60% of useable area is mostly flat with low fertility duplex soils, of which more than 50% is phosphorus deficient. Natural spear grass-based pastures predominate over the station. Swan’s Lagoon research has contributed to understanding the biology of many aspects of beef production for northern Australia. Research outcomes have provided options to deal with the region’s primary challenges of weaning rates averaging less than 60%, annual growth rates averaging as little as 100 kg, high mortality rates and high management costs. All these relate to the region’s variable and highly seasonal rainfall—challenges that add to insect-borne viruses, ticks, buffalo fly and internal parasites. As well as the vast amount of practical beef production science produced at Swan’s Lagoon, generations of staff have been trained there to support beef producers throughout Queensland and northern Australia to increase their business efficiency. The Queensland Government has provided most of the funds for staffing and operations. Strong beef industry support is reflected in project funding from meat industry levies, managed by Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) and its predecessors. MLA has consistently provided the majority of operational research funding since the first grant for ‘Studies of management practices, adaption of different breeds and strains to tropical environments, and studies on tick survival and resistance’ in 1962–63. A large number of other agencies and commercial companies have also supported research.

Comparative studies on the invasion of cattle ticks (Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus) and sheep blowflies (Lucilia cuprina) by Metarhizium anisopliae (Sorokin).

Microscopic investigations over time were carried out to study and compare the pathogenesis of invasion of ticks and blowflies by Metarhizium anisopliae. The scanning electron microscope and stereo light microscope were used to observe and record processes on the arthropods' surfaces and the compound light microscope was used to observe and record processes within the body cavities. Two distinctly different patterns of invasion were found in ticks and blowflies. Fungal conidia germinated on the surface of ticks then hyphae simultaneously penetrated into the tick body and grew across the tick surface. There was extensive fungal degradation of the tick cuticle, particularly the outer endocuticle. Although large numbers of conidia adhered to the surface of blowflies, no conidia were seen to germinate on external surfaces. A single germinating conidium was seen in the entrance to the buccal cavity. Investigations of the fly interior revealed a higher density of hyphal bodies in the haemolymph surrounding the buccal cavity than in haemolymph from regions of the upper thorax. This pattern suggests that fungal invasion of the blowfly is primarily through the buccal cavity. Plentiful extracellular mucilage was seen around the hyphae on tick cuticles, and crystals of calcium oxalate were seen amongst the hyphae on the surface of ticks and in the haemolymph of blowflies killed by M. anisopliae isolate ARIM16.

Comparison of bioassay responses to the potential fungal biopesticide Metarhizium anisopliae in Rhipicephalus(Boophilus) microplus and Lucilia cuprina.

Quantal response bioassays were conducted with cattle ticks and sheep blowflies with three different isolates of Metarhizium anisopliae and different methods of inoculation. Ticks were either topically dosed with 2 mu l or immersed in the conidial preparations. Blowflies were either topically dosed with 2 mu l of the conidial preparation or fed on conidia mixed with sugar. Probit analyses were carried out on the mortality data to compare the virulence of these isolates to ticks and blowflies and look for indications of different virulence mechanisms employed by M. anisopliae isolates when invading these hosts. One isolate (ARIM16) showed high virulence to both hosts killing 95% of ticks after 2 days and 88 (+/- 2)% of blowflies after 4 days. Strikingly different mortality patterns indicated that virulence is dependent on different mechanisms in ticks and blowflies. The pattern of mortality seen with ticks suggested that the number of conidia adhering per unit area of the cuticle was more important for rapid tick death than the total number of conidia contacting the entire tick surface. Blowflies fed conidia mixed with food died rapidly after an initial lag phase regardless of dose.