Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

When supply travels far beyond demand: Causes of oversupply in Spain’s transport infrastructure

Spain’s transport infrastructure policy has become a paradigmatic case of oversupply and of mismatch with demand. The massive expansion of the country’s transport infrastructure over the last decade has not been a response to demand bottlenecks or previously identified needs. For this reason, the intensity of use today on all interurban modes of transport in Spain falls well below that of other EU countries. This paper analyzes the institutional and regulatory factors that have permitted this policy, allowing us to draw lessons from the Spanish case that should help other countries avoid the pitfalls and shortcomings of Spanish policy.

When supply travels far beyond demand: Causes of oversupply in Spain’s transport infrastructure

Spain’s transport infrastructure policy has become a paradigmatic case of oversupply and of mismatch with demand. The massive expansion of the country’s transport infrastructure over the last decade has not been a response to demand bottlenecks or previously identified needs. For this reason, the intensity of use today on all interurban modes of transport in Spain falls well below that of other EU countries. This paper analyzes the institutional and regulatory factors that have permitted this policy, allowing us to draw lessons from the Spanish case that should help other countries avoid the pitfalls and shortcomings of Spanish policy.

Thomas Corneille grammairien... ([Reprod.]) / par Gilbert Sautebin...

Collection : Archives de la linguistique française ; 362

Art poétique françoys : 1548 ([Reprod.]) / Thomas Sebillet ; édition critique avec une introduction et des notes... par Félix Gaiffe,...

Collection : Archives de la linguistique française ; 363

Value added logistics in supply and demand chains. Smile. Part 1. eBusiness between global company and itslocal sme supplier network

VALOSADE (Value Added Logistics in Supply and Demand Chains) is the research project of Anita Lukka's VALORE (Value Added Logistics Research) research team inLappeenranta University of Technology. VALOSADE is included in ELO (Ebusiness logistics) technology program of Tekes (Finnish Technology Agency). SMILE (SME-sector, Internet applications and Logistical Efficiency) is one of four subprojects of VALOSADE. SMILE research focuses on case network that is composed of small and medium sized mechanical maintenance service providers and global wood processing customers. Basic principle of SMILE study is communication and ebusiness insupply and demand network. This first phase of research concentrates on creating backgrounds for SMILE study and for ebusiness solutions of maintenance case network. The focus is on general trends of ebusiness in supply chains and networksof different industries; total ebusiness system architecture of company networks; ebusiness strategy of company network; information value chain; different factors, which influence on ebusiness solution of company network; and the correlation between ebusiness and competitive advantage. Literature, interviews and benchmarking were used as research methods in this qualitative case study. Networks and end-to-end supply chains are the organizational structures, which can add value for end customer. Information is one of the key factors in these decentralized structures. Because of decentralization of business, information is produced and used in different companies and in different information systems. Information refinement services are needed to manage information flows in company networksbetween different systems. Furthermore, some new solutions like network information systems are utilised in optimising network performance and in standardizingnetwork common processes. Some cases have however indicated, that utilization of ebusiness in decentralized business model is not always a necessity, but value-add of ICT must be defined case-specifically. In the theory part of report, different ebusiness and architecture models are introduced. These models are compared to empirical case data in research results. The biggest difference between theory and empirical data is that models are mainly developed for large-scale companies - not for SMEs. This is due to that implemented network ebusiness solutions are mainly large company centered. Genuine SME network centred ebusiness models are quite rare, and the study in that area has been few in number. Business relationships between customer and their SME suppliers are nowadays concentrated more on collaborative tactical and strategic initiatives besides transaction based operational initiatives. However, ebusiness systems are further mainly based on exchange of operational transactional data. Collaborative ebusiness solutions are in planning or pilot phase in most case companies. Furthermore, many ebusiness solutions are nowadays between two participants, but network and end-to-end supply chain transparency and information systems are quite rare. Transaction volumes, data formats, the types of exchanged information, information criticality,type and duration of business relationship, internal information systems of partners, processes and operation models (e.g. different ordering models) differ among network companies, and furthermore companies are at different stages on networking and ebusiness readiness. Because of former factors, different customer-supplier combinations in network must utilise totally different ebusiness architectures, technologies, systems and standards.

Value added logistics in supply and demand chain. Smile. Part 2. eBusiness in a service business. Case: A maintenance and operations network in forest industry

VVALOSADE is a research project of professor Anita Lukka's VALORE research team in the Lappeenranta University of Technology. The VALOSADE includes the ELO technology program of Tekes. SMILE is one of four subprojects of the VALOSADE. The SMILE study focuses on the case of the company network that is composed of small and micro-sized mechanical maintenance service providers and forest industry as large-scale customers. The basic principle of the SMILE study is the communication and ebusiness in supply and demand networks. The aim of the study is to develop ebusiness strategy, ebusiness model and e-processes among the SME local service providers, and onthe other hand, between the local service provider network and the forest industry customers in a maintenance and operations service business. A literature review, interviews and benchmarking are used as research methods in this qualitative case study. The first SMILE report, 'Ebusiness between Global Company and Its Local SME Supplier Network', concentrated on creating background for the SMILE study by studying general trends of ebusiness in supply chains and networks of different industries. This second phase of the study concentrates on case network background, such as business relationships, information systems and business objectives; core processes in maintenance and operations service network; development needs in communication among the network participants; and ICT solutions to respond needs in changing environment. In the theory part of the report, different ebusiness models and frameworks are introduced. Those models and frameworks are compared to empirical case data. From that analysis of the empirical data, therecommendations for the development of the network information system are derived. In process industry such as the forest industry, it is crucial to achieve a high level of operational efficiency and reliability, which sets up great requirements for maintenance and operations. Therefore, partnerships or strategic alliances are needed between the network participants. In partnerships and alliances, deep communication is important, and therefore the information systems in the network also are critical. Communication, coordination and collaboration will increase in the case network in the future, because network resources must be optimised to improve competitive capability of the forest industry customers and theefficiency of their service providers. At present, ebusiness systems are not usual in this maintenance network. A network information system among the forest industry customers and their local service providers actually is the only genuinenetwork information system in this total network. However, the utilisation of that system has been quite insignificant. The current system does not add value enough either to the customers or to the local service providers. At present, thenetwork information system is the infomediary that share static information forthe network partners. The network information system should be the transaction intermediary, which integrates internal processes of the network companies; the network information system, which provides common standardised processes for thelocal service providers; and the infomediary, which share static and dynamic information on right time, on right partner, on right costs, on right format and on right quality. This study provides recommendations how to develop this system in the future to add value to the network companies. Ebusiness scenarios, vision, objectives, strategies, application architecture, ebusiness model, core processes and development strategy must be considered when the network information system will be developed in the next development step. The core processes in the case network are demand/capacity management, customer/supplier relationship management, service delivery management, knowledge management and cash flow management. Most benefits from ebusiness solutions come from the electrifying of operational level processes, such as service delivery management and cash flow management.

Tehdaslogistiikka : value added logistics of the supply and demand chain costfix

VALOSADE (Value Added Logistics in Supply and Demand Chains) on Lappeenrannan teknillisen yliopiston ja sielläprofessori Anita Lukan VALORE -tutkimusryhmän toteuttama tutkimusprojekti, jonka rahoittaja on ollut Tekes. Projekti on osa Tekesin ELO - Elektronisen liiketoiminnan logistiikka - teknologiaohjelmaa. Tutkimusta rahoittivat Tekesin lisäksi neljä yritystä, jotka toimivat myös tutkimustyön kohteina ja toimivat tarpeen mukaan yhteistyössä tutkijoiden kanssa. Yritysten toimialat ovat metsäteollisuus, laitevalmistaja, joka tarjoaa myös tuotteilleen jälkimarkkinapalveluja sekä kaksi logistiikkapalveluyritystä. Tämä työraportti liittyy VALOSADE - tutkimusprojektin osaprojektiin Costfix (Paper Mill Process - from Fixed Costs into Variable Costs). Costfix - projektin tavoitteena on tutkia ja löytää paperiteollisuudelle uusia toimintamalleja, jotka mahdollistavat kiinteiden kustannusten muuttamisen muuttuviksi. Merkittävä tutkimuksen osa-alue on myös tutkimuskohteiden liike-toiminnan nykytilan aiempaa tarkempi selvittäminen. Tämä työraportti käsittelee kunnossapidon materiaalilogistiikan osalta tehtaan sisällä tapahtuvaa toimintaa, josta tässä tutkimuksessa käytetään nimitystä tehdaslogistiikka. Nykytilaselvityksen perusteella nykyinen prosessiteollisuudessa ja myös pääsääntöisesti valmistavassa teollisuudessa yleisesti vallitseva teollisuusyrityksen käyttöinvestointia ylläpitävän palveluprosessin toimintarakenne, johtamistapa ja prosessin operatiivisten tehtävien toimenkuvat eivät tue ko. palvelukokonaisuuden tehokasta ja tuloksellista toteuttamista. Nykymuotoinen toimintamalli pikemminkin rajoittaa toimintaprosessin kokonaishallintaa ja sen tehostamiseksi investoitujen uusien teknisten ratkaisujen ja teknologian käyttöönottoa. Lisäksi yleisesti vallitseva toimintakulttuuri (mm. arvokäsitykset, uskomukset sekä toiminnan ja tavoitteiden taustalla olevat motiivit) sekä vaikeuttaa nykyisen ja tulevan kilpailutilanteen edellyttämien tehokkuus- ja tuottavuustavoitteiden toteutumista että hidastaa uudistusten onnistumista edellyttävän muutoksen etenemistä yrityksen sisällä. Tutkimuksen tulokset vahvistivat osaltaan sen, että tehdas- ja toimintokeskeinen johtaminen aiheuttavat palveluprosessin eri tehtäville asetettujen tavoitteiden ja perustehtäväkäsityksen välille ristiriitoja, joista seuraa sekä suoria että välillisiä vaikutuksia teollisuusyrityksen tuotantoprosessin toiminnan laatuun ja tuotantolaitteiden käyttövarmuuteen. Palvelukokonaisuuteen kuuluvien eri toimintaprosessien tehtävät on jaettu ristiriitaisesti toiminnoille siten, että erityisestikunnossapidon teknisten toimihenkilöitten hoidettavana on sekä ihmisen henkilökohtaisen kapasiteettirajan ylittävä että toisistaan liian suuri erilaisia osaamisia ja ymmärrystä edellyttävä tehtävämäärä. Nykytilan palvelutuotannossa esiintyvien ongelmien seuraukset ja perussyyt osoittavat, että merkittävästi pääomia sitovan valmistavan teollisuuden (mm. prosessiteollisuus) käyttö-omaisuutta ylläpitävän palveluprosessin hallinta on ulkoistettava tehdastasolta itsenäisesti hoidettavaksi liiketoimintakokonaisuudeksi, jonka operatiivinen johtaminen tapahtuu toimintaprosesseittain konsernin ylätasolta käsin. Johtamismallissa painottuu prosessijohtaminen ja oman vastuualueen toimintaprosessin asiantuntemus. Lisäksi ihmisen osaamiseen, ymmärrykseen ja toimintatapaan perustuva palvelu edellyttää johtamiselta henkilöjohtamistaitoa ja osaamisen johtamista. Liiketoiminnan uudenlainen keskittyminen, verkostoituminen ja globalisoituminen edellyttävät johdoltamyös erilaisten toimintaverkostojen ja sidosryhmien toiminnan ja tarpeen ymmärtämistä. Tutkimustulosten perusteella myös palveluprosesseissa toimivien toimihenkilöitten tehtäväkuvia on muutettava radikaalisti ja osa uusista toimenkuvista edellyttää lisäksi henkilöitten osaamistason aktiivista parantamista. Tässä raportissa esitetään toimintamalli, jossa kuvataan tutkimuksen pohjalta luotu palvelukokonaisuuden johtamismalli ja palveluprosessien eri tehtävätasot tehtävineen. Kuvattu johtamismalli on ollut jo yleisesti käytössä yksittäisillä palvelualoilla, mutta tässä esitetty malli on valmistavan yrityksen teknisiin tukipalveluihin muokattu sovellus.