Optimal Contracts, Adverse Selection, and Social Preferences: An Experiment

It has long been standard in agency theory to search for incentive-compatible mechanisms on the assumption that people care only about their own material wealth. However, this assumption is clearly refuted by numerous experiments, and we feel that it may be useful to consider nonpecuniary utility in mechanism design and contract theory. Accordingly, we devise an experiment to explore optimal contracts in an adverse-selection context. A principal proposes one of three contract menus, each of which offers a choice of two incentive-compatible contracts, to two agents whose types are unknown to the principal. The agents know the set of possible menus, and choose to either accept one of the two contracts offered in the proposed menu or to reject the menu altogether; a rejection by either agent leads to lower (and equal) reservation payoffs for all parties. While all three possible menus favor the principal, they do so to varying degrees. We observe numerous rejections of the more lopsided menus, and approach an equilibrium where one of the more equitable contract menus (which one depends on the reservation payoffs) is proposed and agents accept a contract, selecting actions according to their types. Behavior is largely consistent with all recent models of social preferences, strongly suggesting there is value in considering nonpecuniary utility in agency theory.

Monoclonal antibodies to carcinoembryonic antigen: ionic strength as a factor in the selection of antibodies for immunoscintigraphy.

As part of an ongoing effort to improve the technique of immunoscintigraphy for the detection of human carcinomas with radiolabeled monoclonal antibodies (MABs) to carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), we have developed a series of MABs to CEA and have studied the effects of low- and physiological molarity buffers on their CEA binding and affinity, as well as their cross-reactivity with granulocyte glycoprotein(s). These in vitro results in different buffer systems were then correlated with the use of these MABs to CEA in the detection of human colon carcinoma grafts in nude mice. Our results show that the binding of CEA by some MABs is influenced by ionic strength and that this may be an important factor in their successful use for the immunolocalization of carcinomas in vivo.

A Model of Collateral, Investment, and Adverse Selection

This paper characterizes the relationship between entrepreneurial wealth and aggregate investment under adverse selection. Its main finding is that such a relationship need not be monotonic. In particular, three results emerge from the analysis: (i) pooling equilibria, in which investment is independent of entrepreneurial wealth, are more likely to arise when entrepreneurial wealth is relatively low; (ii) separating equilibria, in which investment is increasing in entrepreneurial wealth, are most likely to arise when entrepreneurial wealth is relatively high and; (iii) for a given interest rate, an increase in entrepreneurial wealth may generate a discontinuous fall in investment.

Time Series Input Selection using Multiple Kernel Learning

In this paper we study the relevance of multiple kernel learning (MKL) for the automatic selection of time series inputs. Recently, MKL has gained great attention in the machine learning community due to its flexibility in modelling complex patterns and performing feature selection. In general, MKL constructs the kernel as a weighted linear combination of basis kernels, exploiting different sources of information. An efficient algorithm wrapping a Support Vector Regression model for optimizing the MKL weights, named SimpleMKL, is used for the analysis. In this sense, MKL performs feature selection by discarding inputs/kernels with low or null weights. The approach proposed is tested with simulated linear and nonlinear time series (AutoRegressive, Henon and Lorenz series).

Myocardial flow reserve by Rb-82 cardiac PET improves the selection of patients eligible for invasive coronary angiography

Aim: We asked whether myocardial flow reserve (MFR) by Rb-82 cardiac PET improve the selection of patients eligible for invasive coronary angiography (ICA). Material and Methods: We enrolled 26 consecutive patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease who performed dynamic Rb-82 PET/CT and (ICA) within 60 days; 4 patients who underwent revascularization or had any cardiovascular events between PET and ICA were excluded. Myocardial blood flow at rest (rMBF), at stress with adenosine (sMBF) and myocardial flow reserve (MFR=sMBF/rMBF) were estimated using the 1-compartment Lortie model (FlowQuant) for each coronary arteries territories. Stenosis severity was assessed using computer-based automated edge detection (QCA). MFR was divided in 3 groups: G1:MFR<1.5, G2:1.5≤MFR<2 and G3:2≤MFR. Stenosis severity was graded as non-significant (<50% or FFR ≥0.8), intermediate (50%≤stenosis<70%) and severe (≥70%). Correlation between MFR and percentage of stenosis were assessed using a non-parametric Spearman test. Results: In G1 (44 vessels), 17 vessels (39%) had a severe stenosis, 11 (25%) an intermediate one, and 16 (36%) no significant stenosis. In G2 (13 vessels), 2 (15%) vessels presented a severe stenosis, 7 (54%) an intermediate one, and 4 (31%) no significant stenosis. In G3 (9 vessels), 0 vessel presented a severe stenosis, 1 (11%) an intermediate one, and 8 (89%) no significant stenosis. Of note, among 11 patients with 3-vessel low MFR<1.5 (G1), 9/11 (82%) had at least one severe stenosis and 2/11 (18%) had at least one intermediate stenosis. There was a significant inverse correlation between stenosis severity and MFR among all 66 territories analyzed (rho= -0.38, p=0.002). Conclusion: Patients with MFR>2 could avoid ICA. Low MFR (G1, G2) on a vessel-based analysis seems to be a poor predictor of severe stenosis severity. Patients with 3-vessel low MFR would benefit from ICA as they are likely to present a significant stenosis in at least one vessel.

Genetic team composition and level of selection in the evolution of cooperation

In cooperative multiagent systems, agents interac to solve tasks. Global dynamics of multiagent teams result from local agent interactions, and are complex and difficult to predict. Evolutionary computation has proven a promising approach to the design of such teams. The majority of current studies use teams composed of agents with identical control rules ("geneti- cally homogeneous teams") and select behavior at the team level ("team-level selection"). Here we extend current approaches to include four combinations of genetic team composition and level of selection. We compare the performance of genetically homo- geneous teams evolved with individual-level selection, genetically homogeneous teams evolved with team-level selection, genetically heterogeneous teams evolved with individual-level selection, and genetically heterogeneous teams evolved with team-level selection. We use a simulated foraging task to show that the optimal combination depends on the amount of cooperation required by the task. Accordingly, we distinguish between three types of cooperative tasks and suggest guidelines for the optimal choice of genetic team composition and level of selection

An ultra performance liquid chromatography-tandem MS assay for tamoxifen metabolites profiling in plasma: first evidence of 4'-hydroxylated metabolites in breast cancer patients.

There is increasing evidence that the clinical efficacy of tamoxifen, the first and most widely used targeted therapy for estrogen-sensitive breast cancer, depends on the formation of the active metabolites 4-hydroxy-tamoxifen and 4-hydroxy-N-desmethyl-tamoxifen (endoxifen). Large inter-individual variability in endoxifen plasma concentrations has been observed and related both to genetic and environmental (i.e. drug-induced) factors altering CYP450s metabolizing enzymes activity. In this context, we have developed an ultra performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method (UPLC-MS/MS) requiring 100 μL of plasma for the quantification of tamoxifen and three of its major metabolites in breast cancer patients. Plasma is purified by a combination of protein precipitation, evaporation at room temperature under nitrogen, and reconstitution in methanol/20 mM ammonium formate 1:1 (v/v), adjusted to pH 2.9 with formic acid. Reverse-phase chromatographic separation of tamoxifen, N-desmethyl-tamoxifen, 4-hydroxy-tamoxifen and 4-hydroxy-N-desmethyl-tamoxifen is performed within 13 min using elution with a gradient of 10 mM ammonium formate and acetonitrile, both containing 0.1% formic acid. Analytes quantification, using matrix-matched calibration samples spiked with their respective deuterated internal standards, is performed by electrospray ionization-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry using selected reaction monitoring detection in the positive mode. The method was validated according to FDA recommendations, including assessment of relative matrix effects variability, as well as tamoxifen and metabolites short-term stability in plasma and whole blood. The method is precise (inter-day CV%: 2.5-7.8%), accurate (-1.4 to +5.8%) and sensitive (lower limits of quantification comprised between 0.4 and 2.0 ng/mL). Application of this method to patients' samples has made possible the identification of two further metabolites, 4'-hydroxy-tamoxifen and 4'-hydroxy-N-desmethyl-tamoxifen, described for the first time in breast cancer patients. This UPLC-MS/MS assay is currently applied for monitoring plasma levels of tamoxifen and its metabolites in breast cancer patients within the frame of a clinical trial aiming to assess the impact of dose increase on tamoxifen and endoxifen exposure.

Determination of oseltamivir and oseltamivir carboxylate in human plasma by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry

Introduction: Oseltamivir phosphate (OP), the prodrug of oseltamivir carboxylate (OC; active metabolite), is marketed since 10 years for the treatment of seasonal influenza flu. It has recently received renewed attention because of the threat of avian flu H5N1 in 2006-7 and the 2009-10 A/H1N1 pandemic. However, relatively few studies have been published on OP and OC clinical pharmacokinetics. The disposition of OC and the dosage adaptation of OP in specific populations, such as young children or patients undergoing extrarenal epuration, have also received poor attention. An analytical method was thus developed to assess OP and OC plasma concentrations in patients receiving OP and presenting with comorbidities or requiring intensive care. Methods: A high performance liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry method (HPLC-MS/MS) requiring 100-µL aliquot of plasma for quantification within 6 min of OP and OC was developed. A combination of protein precipitation with acetonitrile, followed by dilution of supernant in suitable buffered solvent was used as an extraction procedure. After reverse phase chromatographic separation, quantification was performed by electro-spray ionization-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry. Deuterated isotopic compounds of OP and OC were used as internal standards. Results: The method is sensitive (lower limit of quantification: 5 ng/mL for OP and OC), accurate (intra-/inter-assay bias for OP and OC: 8.5%/5.5% and 3.7/0.7%, respectively) and precise (intra-/inter-assay CV%: 5.2%/6.5% and 6.3%/9.2%, respectively) over the clinically relevant concentration range (upper limits of quantification 5000 ng/mL). Of importance, OP, as in other previous reports, was found not to be stable ex vivo in plasma on standard anticoagulants (i.e. EDTA, heparin or citrate). This poor stability of OP has been prevented by collecting blood samples on commercial fluoride/oxalate tubes. Conclusions: This new simple, rapid and robust HPLC-MS/MS assay for quantification of OP and OC plasma concentrations offers an efficient tool for concentration monitoring of OC. Its exposure can probably be controlled with sufficient accuracy by thorough dosage adjustment according to patient characteristics (e.g. renal clearance). The usefulness of systematic therapeutic drug monitoring in patients appears therefore questionable. However, pharmacokinetic studies are still needed to extend knowledge to particular subgroups of patients or dosage regimens.

Sex allocation and sex-dependent selection for body size in Trypoxylon rogenhoferi Kohl (Hymenoptera, Sphecidae)

Two populations of the wasp Trypoxylon rogenhoferi Kohl, 1884 from São Carlos and Luís Antônio, State of São Paulo, Brazil, were observed and sampled from May 1999 to February 2001 using trap-nests. This mass-provisioning wasp was used to test some aspects of optimal sex allocation theory. Both populations fit all the predictions of the models of Green and Brockmann and Grafen. Maternal provisions determined the size of each offspring, and females allocated well-stocked brood cells to daughters, the sex that benefits most being large. This strategy resulted in a difference in size between the sexes. In São Carlos, female weight at emergence was 1.18 times that of males, in Luís Antônio this value was 1.13. The brood cell volume was correlated with both wing length and weight at emergence in both sexes, and the chance that a given brood cell contained a male offspring decreased with increased brood cell volume. In T. rogenhoferi female body size was related to fitness. Larger females were able to collect more mass of spiders per day, the spiders they captured were heavier, and they provisioned more brood cells per day. They also produced larger daughters. For males, no relationship between body size and fitness was found, but the data were scarce. Since the patterns of provisioning were variable among different females in both study sites, it is possible that the females not follow a unique strategy for sex allocation. The sex ratio and/or investment ratio in the São Carlos population was female-biased and in Luís Antônio, male-biased. In spite of the influence of trap-nests diameters on male production in Luís Antônio, there is some evidence that in São Carlos population the local availability of prey and/or lower rate of parasitism may be major forces in determining the observed sex ratio, but further studies are necessary to verify such hypothesis.

How accurate is the current picture of human genetic variation?

Our understanding of the distribution of worldwide human genomic diversity has greatly increased over recent years thanks to the availability of large data sets derived from short tandem repeats (STRs), insertion deletion polymorphisms (indels) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A concern, however, is that the current picture of worldwide human genomic diversity may be inaccurate because of biases in the selection process of genetic markers (so-called 'ascertainment bias'). To evaluate this problem, we first compared the distribution of genomic diversity between these three types of genetic markers in the populations from the HGDP-CEPH panel for evidence of bias or incongruities. In a second step, using a very relaxed set of criteria to prevent the intrusion of bias, we developed a new set of unbiased STR markers and compared the results against those from available panels. Contrarily to recent claims, our results show that the STR markers suffer from no discernible bias, and can thus be used as a baseline reference for human genetic diversity and population differentiation. The bias on SNPs is moderate compared to that on the set of indels analysed, which we recommend should be avoided for work describing the distribution of human genetic diversity or making inference on human settlement history.

Interviews and adverse selection

Interviewing in professional labor markets is a costly process for firms. Moreover, poor screening can have a persistent negative impact on firms bottom lines and candidates careers. In a simple dynamic model where firms can pay a cost to interview applicants who have private information about their own ability, potentially large inefficiencies arise from information-based unemployment, where able workers are rejected by firms because of their lack of offers in previous interviews. This effect may make the market less efficient than random matching. We show that the first best can be achieved using either a mechanism with transfers or one without transfers.