963 resultados para strong effects


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Although tree ferns are an important component of temperate and tropical forests, very little is known about their ecology. Their peculiar biology (e.g., dispersal by spores and two-phase life cycle) makes it difficult to extrapolate current knowledge on the ecology of other tree species to tree ferns. In this paper, we studied the effects of negative density dependence (NDD) and environmental heterogeneity on populations of two abundant tree fern species, Cyathea caracasana and Alsophila engelii, and how these effects change across a successional gradient. Species patterns harbor information on processes such as competition that can be easily revealed using point pattern analysis techniques. However, its detection may be difficult due to the confounded effects of habitat heterogeneity. Here, we mapped three forest plots along a successional gradient in the montane forests of Southern Ecuador. We employed homogeneous and inhomogeneous K and pair correlation functions to quantify the change in the spatial pattern of different size classes and a case-control design to study associations between juvenile and adult tree ferns. Using spatial estimates of the biomass of four functional tree types (short- and long-lived pioneer, shade- and partial shade-tolerant) as covariates, we fitted heterogeneous Poisson models to the point pattern of juvenile and adult tree ferns and explored the existence of habitat dependencies on these patterns. Our study revealed NDD effects for C. caracasana and strong environmental filtering underlying the pattern of A. engelii. We found that adult and juvenile populations of both species responded differently to habitat heterogeneity and in most cases this heterogeneity was associated with the spatial distribution of biomass of the four functional tree types. These findings show the effectiveness of factoring out environmental heterogeneity to avoid confounding factors when studying NDD and demonstrate the usefulness of covariate maps derived from mapped communities.

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La presente Tesis constituye un avance en el conocimiento de los efectos de la variabilidad climática en los cultivos en la Península Ibérica (PI). Es bien conocido que la temperatura del océano, particularmente de la región tropical, es una de las variables más convenientes para ser utilizado como predictor climático. Los océanos son considerados como la principal fuente de almacenamiento de calor del planeta debido a la alta capacidad calorífica del agua. Cuando se libera esta energía, altera los regímenes globales de circulación atmosférica por mecanismos de teleconexión. Estos cambios en la circulación general de la atmósfera afectan a la temperatura, precipitación, humedad, viento, etc., a escala regional, los cuales afectan al crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos. Para el caso de Europa, esto implica que la variabilidad atmosférica en una región específica se asocia con la variabilidad de otras regiones adyacentes y/o remotas, como consecuencia Europa está siendo afectada por los patrones de circulaciones globales, que a su vez, se ven afectados por patrones oceánicos. El objetivo general de esta tesis es analizar la variabilidad del rendimiento de los cultivos y su relación con la variabilidad climática y teleconexiones, así como evaluar su predictibilidad. Además, esta Tesis tiene como objetivo establecer una metodología para estudiar la predictibilidad de las anomalías del rendimiento de los cultivos. El análisis se centra en trigo y maíz como referencia para otros cultivos de la PI, cultivos de invierno en secano y cultivos de verano en regadío respectivamente. Experimentos de simulación de cultivos utilizando una metodología en cadena de modelos (clima + cultivos) son diseñados para evaluar los impactos de los patrones de variabilidad climática en el rendimiento y su predictibilidad. La presente Tesis se estructura en dos partes: La primera se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del clima y la segunda es una aplicación de predicción cuantitativa de cosechas. La primera parte está dividida en 3 capítulos y la segundo en un capitulo cubriendo los objetivos específicos del presente trabajo de investigación. Parte I. Análisis de variabilidad climática El primer capítulo muestra un análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento potencial en una localidad como indicador bioclimático de las teleconexiones de El Niño con Europa, mostrando su importancia en la mejora de predictibilidad tanto en clima como en agricultura. Además, se presenta la metodología elegida para relacionar el rendimiento con las variables atmosféricas y oceánicas. El rendimiento de los cultivos es parcialmente determinado por la variabilidad climática atmosférica, que a su vez depende de los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar (TSM). El Niño es el principal modo de variabilidad interanual de la TSM, y sus efectos se extienden en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, la predictibilidad de estos impactos es controversial, especialmente aquellos asociados con la variabilidad climática Europea, que se ha encontrado que es no estacionaria y no lineal. Este estudio mostró cómo el rendimiento potencial de los cultivos obtenidos a partir de datos de reanálisis y modelos de cultivos sirve como un índice alternativo y más eficaz de las teleconexiones de El Niño, ya que integra las no linealidades entre las variables climáticas en una única serie temporal. Las relaciones entre El Niño y las anomalías de rendimiento de los cultivos son más significativas que las contribuciones individuales de cada una de las variables atmosféricas utilizadas como entrada en el modelo de cultivo. Además, la no estacionariedad entre El Niño y la variabilidad climática europea se detectan con mayor claridad cuando se analiza la variabilidad de los rendimiento de los cultivos. La comprensión de esta relación permite una cierta predictibilidad hasta un año antes de la cosecha del cultivo. Esta predictibilidad no es constante, sino que depende tanto la modulación de la alta y baja frecuencia. En el segundo capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de verano en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de maíz en la PI para todo el siglo veinte, usando un modelo de cultivo calibrado en 5 localidades españolas y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento potencial. Este estudio evalúa el uso de datos de reanálisis para obtener series de rendimiento de cultivos que dependen solo del clima, y utilizar estos rendimientos para analizar la influencia de los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos. Los resultados muestran una gran fiabilidad de los datos de reanálisis. La distribución espacial asociada a la primera componente principal de la variabilidad del rendimiento muestra un comportamiento similar en todos los lugares estudiados de la PI. Se observa una alta correlación lineal entre el índice de El Niño y el rendimiento, pero no es estacionaria en el tiempo. Sin embargo, la relación entre la temperatura del aire y el rendimiento se mantiene constante a lo largo del tiempo, siendo los meses de mayor influencia durante el período de llenado del grano. En cuanto a los patrones atmosféricos, el patrón Escandinavia presentó una influencia significativa en el rendimiento en PI. En el tercer capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de invierno en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de trigo en secano del Noreste (NE) de la PI. La variabilidad climática es el principal motor de los cambios en el crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos, especialmente en los sistemas de producción en secano. En la PI, los rendimientos de trigo son fuertemente dependientes de la cantidad de precipitación estacional y la distribución temporal de las mismas durante el periodo de crecimiento del cultivo. La principal fuente de variabilidad interanual de la precipitación en la PI es la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO), que se ha relacionado, en parte, con los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar en el Pacífico Tropical (El Niño) y el Atlántico Tropical (TNA). La existencia de cierta predictibilidad nos ha animado a analizar la posible predicción de los rendimientos de trigo en la PI utilizando anomalías de TSM como predictor. Para ello, se ha utilizado un modelo de cultivo (calibrado en dos localidades del NE de la PI) y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento de trigo alcanzable y relacionar su variabilidad con anomalías de la TSM. Los resultados muestran que El Niño y la TNA influyen en el desarrollo y rendimiento del trigo en el NE de la PI, y estos impactos depende del estado concurrente de la NAO. Aunque la relación cultivo-TSM no es igual durante todo el periodo analizado, se puede explicar por un mecanismo eco-fisiológico estacionario. Durante la segunda mitad del siglo veinte, el calentamiento (enfriamiento) en la superficie del Atlántico tropical se asocia a una fase negativa (positiva) de la NAO, que ejerce una influencia positiva (negativa) en la temperatura mínima y precipitación durante el invierno y, por lo tanto, aumenta (disminuye) el rendimiento de trigo en la PI. En relación con El Niño, la correlación más alta se observó en el período 1981 -2001. En estas décadas, los altos (bajos) rendimientos se asocian con una transición El Niño - La Niña (La Niña - El Niño) o con eventos de El Niño (La Niña) que están finalizando. Para estos eventos, el patrón atmosférica asociada se asemeja a la NAO, que también influye directamente en la temperatura máxima y precipitación experimentadas por el cultivo durante la floración y llenado de grano. Los co- efectos de los dos patrones de teleconexión oceánicos ayudan a aumentar (disminuir) la precipitación y a disminuir (aumentar) la temperatura máxima en PI, por lo tanto el rendimiento de trigo aumenta (disminuye). Parte II. Predicción de cultivos. En el último capítulo se analiza los beneficios potenciales del uso de predicciones climáticas estacionales (por ejemplo de precipitación) en las predicciones de rendimientos de trigo y maíz, y explora métodos para aplicar dichos pronósticos climáticos en modelos de cultivo. Las predicciones climáticas estacionales tienen un gran potencial en las predicciones de cultivos, contribuyendo de esta manera a una mayor eficiencia de la gestión agrícola, seguridad alimentaria y de subsistencia. Los pronósticos climáticos se expresan en diferentes formas, sin embargo todos ellos son probabilísticos. Para ello, se evalúan y aplican dos métodos para desagregar las predicciones climáticas estacionales en datos diarios: 1) un generador climático estocástico condicionado (predictWTD) y 2) un simple re-muestreador basado en las probabilidades del pronóstico (FResampler1). Los dos métodos se evaluaron en un caso de estudio en el que se analizaron los impactos de tres escenarios de predicciones de precipitación estacional (predicción seco, medio y lluvioso) en el rendimiento de trigo en secano, sobre las necesidades de riego y rendimiento de maíz en la PI. Además, se estimó el margen bruto y los riesgos de la producción asociada con las predicciones de precipitación estacional extremas (seca y lluviosa). Los métodos predWTD y FResampler1 usados para desagregar los pronósticos de precipitación estacional en datos diarios, que serán usados como inputs en los modelos de cultivos, proporcionan una predicción comparable. Por lo tanto, ambos métodos parecen opciones factibles/viables para la vinculación de los pronósticos estacionales con modelos de simulación de cultivos para establecer predicciones de rendimiento o las necesidades de riego en el caso de maíz. El análisis del impacto en el margen bruto de los precios del grano de los dos cultivos (trigo y maíz) y el coste de riego (maíz) sugieren que la combinación de los precios de mercado previstos y la predicción climática estacional pueden ser una buena herramienta en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores, especialmente en predicciones secas y/o localidades con baja precipitación anual. Estos métodos permiten cuantificar los beneficios y riesgos de los agricultores ante una predicción climática estacional en la PI. Por lo tanto, seríamos capaces de establecer sistemas de alerta temprana y diseñar estrategias de adaptación del manejo del cultivo para aprovechar las condiciones favorables o reducir los efectos de condiciones adversas. La utilidad potencial de esta Tesis es la aplicación de las relaciones encontradas para predicción de cosechas de la próxima campaña agrícola. Una correcta predicción de los rendimientos podría ayudar a los agricultores a planear con antelación sus prácticas agronómicas y todos los demás aspectos relacionados con el manejo de los cultivos. Esta metodología se puede utilizar también para la predicción de las tendencias futuras de la variabilidad del rendimiento en la PI. Tanto los sectores públicos (mejora de la planificación agrícola) como privados (agricultores, compañías de seguros agrarios) pueden beneficiarse de esta mejora en la predicción de cosechas. ABSTRACT The present thesis constitutes a step forward in advancing of knowledge of the effects of climate variability on crops in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). It is well known that ocean temperature, particularly the tropical ocean, is one of the most convenient variables to be used as climate predictor. Oceans are considered as the principal heat storage of the planet due to the high heat capacity of water. When this energy is released, it alters the global atmospheric circulation regimes by teleconnection1 mechanisms. These changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere affect the regional temperature, precipitation, moisture, wind, etc., and those influence crop growth, development and yield. For the case of Europe, this implies that the atmospheric variability in a specific region is associated with the variability of others adjacent and/or remote regions as a consequence of Europe being affected by global circulations patterns which, in turn, are affected by oceanic patterns. The general objective of this Thesis is to analyze the variability of crop yields at climate time scales and its relation to the climate variability and teleconnections, as well as to evaluate their predictability. Moreover, this Thesis aims to establish a methodology to study the predictability of crop yield anomalies. The analysis focuses on wheat and maize as a reference crops for other field crops in the IP, for winter rainfed crops and summer irrigated crops respectively. Crop simulation experiments using a model chain methodology (climate + crop) are designed to evaluate the impacts of climate variability patterns on yield and its predictability. The present Thesis is structured in two parts. The first part is focused on the climate variability analyses, and the second part is an application of the quantitative crop forecasting for years that fulfill specific conditions identified in the first part. This Thesis is divided into 4 chapters, covering the specific objectives of the present research work. Part I. Climate variability analyses The first chapter shows an analysis of potential yield variability in one location, as a bioclimatic indicator of the El Niño teleconnections with Europe, putting forward its importance for improving predictability in both climate and agriculture. It also presents the chosen methodology to relate yield with atmospheric and oceanic variables. Crop yield is partially determined by atmospheric climate variability, which in turn depends on changes in the sea surface temperature (SST). El Niño is the leading mode of SST interannual variability, and its impacts extend worldwide. Nevertheless, the predictability of these impacts is controversial, especially those associated with European climate variability, which have been found to be non-stationary and non-linear. The study showed how potential2 crop yield obtained from reanalysis data and crop models serves as an alternative and more effective index of El Niño teleconnections because it integrates the nonlinearities between the climate variables in a unique time series. The relationships between El Niño and crop yield anomalies are more significant than the individual contributions of each of the atmospheric variables used as input in the crop model. Additionally, the non-stationarities between El Niño and European climate variability are more clearly detected when analyzing crop-yield variability. The understanding of this relationship allows for some predictability up to one year before the crop is harvested. This predictability is not constant, but depends on both high and low frequency modulation. The second chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting summer cropping systems in the IP. Moreover, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of simulated crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The third chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting winter cropping systems in the IP. Also, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of rainfed wheat yield variability in IP. Climate variability is the main driver of changes in crop growth, development and yield, especially for rainfed production systems. In IP, wheat yields are strongly dependent on seasonal rainfall amount and temporal distribution of rainfall during the growing season. The major source of precipitation interannual variability in IP is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which has been related in part with changes in the Tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST). The existence of some predictability has encouraged us to analyze the possible predictability of the wheat yield in the IP using SSTs anomalies as predictor. For this purpose, a crop model with a site specific calibration for the Northeast of IP and reanalysis climate datasets have been used to obtain long time series of attainable wheat yield and relate their variability with SST anomalies. The results show that El Niño and TNA influence rainfed wheat development and yield in IP and these impacts depend on the concurrent state of the NAO. Although crop-SST relationships do not equally hold on during the whole analyzed period, they can be explained by an understood and stationary ecophysiological mechanism. During the second half of the twenty century, the positive (negative) TNA index is associated to a negative (positive) phase of NAO, which exerts a positive (negative) influence on minimum temperatures (Tmin) and precipitation (Prec) during winter and, thus, yield increases (decreases) in IP. In relation to El Niño, the highest correlation takes place in the period 1981-2001. For these decades, high (low) yields are associated with an El Niño to La Niña (La Niña to El Niño) transitions or to El Niño events finishing. For these events, the regional associated atmospheric pattern resembles the NAO, which also influences directly on the maximum temperatures (Tmax) and precipitation experienced by the crop during flowering and grain filling. The co-effects of the two teleconnection patterns help to increase (decrease) the rainfall and decrease (increase) Tmax in IP, thus on increase (decrease) wheat yield. Part II. Crop forecasting The last chapter analyses the potential benefits for wheat and maize yields prediction from using seasonal climate forecasts (precipitation), and explores methods to apply such a climate forecast to crop models. Seasonal climate prediction has significant potential to contribute to the efficiency of agricultural management, and to food and livelihood security. Climate forecasts come in different forms, but probabilistic. For this purpose, two methods were evaluated and applied for disaggregating seasonal climate forecast into daily weather realizations: 1) a conditioned stochastic weather generator (predictWTD) and 2) a simple forecast probability resampler (FResampler1). The two methods were evaluated in a case study where the impacts of three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts on rainfed wheat yield, on irrigation requirements and yields of maize in IP were analyzed. In addition, we estimated the economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts (dry and wet). The predWTD and FResampler1 methods used for disaggregating seasonal rainfall forecast into daily data needed by the crop simulation models provided comparable predictability. Therefore both methods seem feasible options for linking seasonal forecasts with crop simulation models for establishing yield forecasts or irrigation water requirements. The analysis of the impact on gross margin of grain prices for both crops and maize irrigation costs suggests the combination of market prices expected and the seasonal climate forecast can be a good tool in farmer’s decision-making, especially on dry forecast and/or in locations with low annual precipitation. These methodologies would allow quantifying the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast to farmers in IP. Therefore, we would be able to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The potential usefulness of this Thesis is to apply the relationships found to crop forecasting on the next cropping season, suggesting opportunity time windows for the prediction. The methodology can be used as well for the prediction of future trends of IP yield variability. Both public (improvement of agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors may benefit from such an improvement of crop forecasting.

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Detailed information regarding the contribution of individual γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA)-containing inhibitory neurons to the overall synaptic activity of single postsynaptic cells is essential to our understanding of fundamental elements of synaptic integration and operation of neuronal circuits. For example, GABA-containing cells in the thalamic reticular nucleus (nRt) provide major inhibitory innervation of thalamic relay nuclei that is critical to thalamocortical rhythm generation. To investigate the contribution of individual nRt neurons to the strength of this internuclear inhibition, we obtained whole-cell recordings of unitary inhibitory postsynaptic currents (IPSCs) evoked in ventrobasal thalamocortical (VB) neurons by stimulation of single nRt cells in rat thalamic slices, in conjunction with intracellular biocytin labeling. Two types of monosynaptic IPSCs could be distinguished. “Weak” inhibitory connections were characterized by a significant number of postsynaptic failures in response to presynaptic nRt action potentials and relatively small IPSCs. In contrast, “strong” inhibition was characterized by the absence of postsynaptic failures and significantly larger unitary IPSCs. By using miniature IPSC amplitudes to infer quantal size, we estimated that unitary IPSCs associated with weak inhibition resulted from activation of 1–3 release sites, whereas stronger inhibition would require simultaneous activation of 5–70 release sites. The inhibitory strengths were positively correlated with the density of axonal swellings of the presynaptic nRt neurons, an indicator that characterizes different nRt axonal arborization patterns. These results demonstrate that there is a heterogeneity of inhibitory interactions between nRt and VB neurons, and that variations in gross morphological features of axonal arbors in the central nervous system can be associated with significant differences in postsynaptic response characteristics.

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The high sensitivity and sharp frequency discrimination of hearing depend on mechanical amplification in the cochlea. To explore the basis of this active process, we examined the pharmacological sensitivity of spontaneous otoacoustic emissions (SOAEs) in a lizard, the Tokay gecko. In a quiet environment, each ear produced a complex but stable pattern of emissions. These SOAEs were reversibly modulated by drugs that affect mammalian otoacoustic emissions, the salicylates and the aminoglycoside antibiotics. The effect of a single i.p. injection of sodium salicylate depended on the initial power of the emissions: ears with strong control SOAEs displayed suppression at all frequencies, whereas those with weak control emissions showed enhancement. Repeated oral administration of acetylsalicylic acid reduced all emissions. Single i.p. doses of gentamicin or kanamycin suppressed SOAEs below 2.6 kHz, while modulating those above 2.6 kHz in either of two ways. For ears whose emission power at 2.6–5.2 kHz encompassed more than half of the total, individual emissions displayed facilitation as great as 35-fold. For the remaining ears, emissions dropped to as little as one-sixth of their initial values. The similarity of the responses of reptilian and mammalian cochleas to pharmacological intervention provides further evidence for a common mechanism of cochlear amplification.

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Conjugation of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) analogues GnRH-III, MI-1544, and MI-1892 through lysyl side chains and a tetrapeptide spacer, Gly-Phe-Leu-Gly (X) to a copolymer, poly(N-vinylpyrrolidone-co-maleic acid) (P) caused increased antiproliferative activity toward MCF-7 and MDA-MB-231 breast, PC3 and LNCaP prostate, and Ishikawa endometrial cancer cell lines in culture and against tumor development by xenografts of the breast cancer cells in immunodeficient mice. MCF-7 cells treated with P-X-1544 and P-X-1892 displayed characteristic signs of apoptosis, including vacuoles in the cytoplasm, rounding up, apoptotic bodies, bleb formation, and DNA fragmentation. Conjugates, but not free peptides, inhibited cdc25 phosphatase and caused accumulation of Ishikawa and PC3 cells in the G2/M phase of the cell cycle after 24 h at lower doses and in the G1 and G2 phases after 48 h. Since P-X-peptides appear to be internalized, the increased cytotoxicity of the conjugates is attributed to protection of peptides from proteolysis, enhanced interaction of the peptides with the GnRH receptors, and/or internalization of P-X-peptide receptor complexes so that P can exert toxic effects inside, possibly by inhibiting enzymes involved in the cell cycle. The additional specificity of P-X-peptides compared with free peptides for direct antiproliferative effects on the cancer cells but not for interactions in the pituitary indicates the therapeutic potential of the conjugates.

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19F nuclear Overhauser effects (NOEs) between fluorine labels on the cytoplasmic domain of rhodopsin solubilized in detergent micelles are reported. Previously, high-resolution solution 19F NMR spectra of fluorine-labeled rhodopsin in detergent micelles were described, demonstrating the applicability of this technique to studies of tertiary structure in the cytoplasmic domain. To quantitate tertiary contacts we have applied a transient one-dimensional difference NOE solution 19F NMR experiment to this system, permitting assessment of proximities between fluorine labels specifically incorporated into different regions of the cytoplasmic face. Three dicysteine substitution mutants (Cys-140–Cys-316, Cys-65–Cys-316, and Cys-139–Cys-251) were labeled by attachment of the trifluoroethylthio group through a disulfide linkage. Each mutant rhodopsin was prepared (8–10 mg) in dodecylmaltoside and analyzed at 20°C by solution 19F NMR. Distinct chemical shifts were observed for all of the rhodopsin 19F labels in the dark. An up-field shift of the Cys-316 resonance in the Cys-65–Cys-316 mutant suggests a close proximity between the two residues. When analyzed for 19F-19F NOEs, a moderate negative enhancement was observed for the Cys-65–Cys-316 pair and a strong negative enhancement was observed for the Cys-139–Cys-251 pair, indicating proximity between these sites. No NOE enhancement was observed for the Cys-140–Cys-316 pair. These NOE effects demonstrate a solution 19F NMR method for analysis of tertiary contacts in high molecular weight proteins, including membrane proteins.

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Cerebral organization during sentence processing in English and in American Sign Language (ASL) was characterized by employing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) at 4 T. Effects of deafness, age of language acquisition, and bilingualism were assessed by comparing results from (i) normally hearing, monolingual, native speakers of English, (ii) congenitally, genetically deaf, native signers of ASL who learned English late and through the visual modality, and (iii) normally hearing bilinguals who were native signers of ASL and speakers of English. All groups, hearing and deaf, processing their native language, English or ASL, displayed strong and repeated activation within classical language areas of the left hemisphere. Deaf subjects reading English did not display activation in these regions. These results suggest that the early acquisition of a natural language is important in the expression of the strong bias for these areas to mediate language, independently of the form of the language. In addition, native signers, hearing and deaf, displayed extensive activation of homologous areas within the right hemisphere, indicating that the specific processing requirements of the language also in part determine the organization of the language systems of the brain.

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CD8+ cells from long-term survivors [LTS; infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) for 10 or more years and having CD4+ cell counts of > or = 500 cells per microliters] have a 3-fold greater ability to suppress HIV replication than do CD8+ cells from patients who have progressed to disease (progressors) during the same time period. A change in the pattern of cytokines produced in the host from those that typically favor cell-mediated immunity (T helper 1, TH1 or type 1) to those that down-regulate it (T helper 2, TH2 or type 2) was investigated as a cause of this reduced CD8+ cell anti-HIV function. Treatment of CD8+ cells from LTS with the TH1 cytokine interleukin (IL)-2 enhanced their anti-HIV activity, whereas exposure of these cells to TH2 cytokines IL-4 or IL-10 reduced their ability to suppress HIV replication and to produce IL-2. IL-2 could prevent and reverse the inhibitory effects of IL-4 and IL-10. Moreover, prolonged exposure of CD8+ cells from some progressors to IL-2 improved the ability of these cells to suppress HIV replication. These observations support previous findings suggesting that strong CD8+ cell responses play an important role in maintaining an asymptomatic state in HIV infection. The data suggest that the loss of CD8+ cell suppression of HIV replication associated with disease progression results from a shift in cytokine production within the infected host from a TH1 to a TH2 pattern. Modulation of these cytokines could provide benefit to HIV-infected individuals by improving their CD8+ cell anti-HIV activity.

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When closely related species co-occur in sympatry, they face a significant challenge. They must adapt to the same local conditions in their shared environment, which favours the convergent evolution of traits, while simultaneously minimizing the costs of competition for shared resources that typically favours the divergent evolution of traits. Here, we use a comparative sister lineage approach to test how most species have responded to these conflicting selection pressures in sympatry, focusing on a key ecological trait: the bill morphology of birds. If similar bill morphologies incur fitness costs due to species interactions, then we predicted that the bill morphologies of closely related species would differ more in sympatry compared with allopatry. Alternatively, if similar bill morphologies incur fitness benefits due to local adaptation, then we predicted that the bill morphologies would be more similar in sympatry compared with allopatry. We used museum specimens to measure five aspects of bill (maxilla) morphology – depth, length, width, side shape, and bottom shape – in diverse bird species from around the world to test our alternative hypotheses. We found support for both divergent evolution and convergent evolution (or trait retention) in one ecological trait: closely related sympatric species diverged in bill depth, but converged in side shape. These patterns of bill evolution were influenced by the genetic distance between closely related sister taxa and the geographic distance between allopatric lineages. Overall, our results highlight species interactions as an important mechanism for the evolution of some (bill depth), but not all (bill shape), aspects of bill morphology in closely related species in sympatry, and provide strong support for the bill as a key ecological trait that can adapt in different ways to the conflicting challenges of sympatry.

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Cette thèse est une collection de trois articles en macroéconomie et finances publiques. Elle développe des modèles d'Equilibre Général Dynamique et Stochastique pour analyser les implications macroéconomiques des politiques d'imposition des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Le premier chapitre analyse les mécanismes de transmission à l'économie, des effets d'un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Dans une économie constituée d'un gouvernement, d'une firme représentative et d'un ménage représentatif, j'élabore un théorème de l'équivalence ricardienne avec l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Plus particulièrement, j'établis que si les marchés financiers sont parfaits, un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises qui ne change pas la valeur présente de l'impôt total auquel l'entreprise est assujettie sur toute sa durée de vie n'a aucun effet réel sur l'économie si l'état utilise un impôt forfaitaire. Ensuite, en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits, je montre qu'une une baisse temporaire de l'impôt forfaitaire sur le profit des entreprises stimule l'investissement parce qu'il réduit temporairement le coût marginal de l'investissement. Enfin, mes résultats indiquent que si l'impôt est proportionnel au profit des entreprises, l'anticipation de taxes élevées dans le futur réduit le rendement espéré de l'investissement et atténue la stimulation de l'investissement engendrée par la réduction d'impôt. Le deuxième chapitre est écrit en collaboration avec Rui Castro. Dans cet article, nous avons quantifié les effets sur les décisions individuelles d'investis-sement et de production des entreprises ainsi que sur les agrégats macroéconomiques, d'une baisse temporaire de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Dans un modèle où les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs de productivité idiosyncratiques, nous avons d'abord établi que le rationnement de crédit affecte plus les petites (jeunes) entreprises que les grandes entreprises. Pour des entreprises de même taille, les entreprises les plus productives sont celles qui souffrent le plus du manque de liquidité résultant des imperfections du marché financier. Ensuite, nous montré que pour une baisse de 1 dollar du revenu de l'impôt, l'investissement et la production augmentent respectivement de 26 et 3,5 centimes. L'effet cumulatif indique une augmentation de l'investissement et de la production agrégés respectivement de 4,6 et 7,2 centimes. Au niveau individuel, nos résultats indiquent que la politique stimule l'investissement des petites entreprises, initialement en manque de liquidité, alors qu'elle réduit l'investissement des grandes entreprises, initialement non contraintes. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à l'analyse des effets de la réforme de l'imposition des revenus d'entreprise proposée par le Trésor américain en 1992. La proposition de réforme recommande l'élimination des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital et l'imposition d'une seule taxe sur le revenu des entreprises. Pour ce faire, j'ai eu recours à un modèle dynamique stochastique d'équilibre général avec marchés financiers imparfaits dans lequel les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs idiosyncratiques de productivité. Les résultats indiquent que l'abolition des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital réduisent les distorsions dans les choix d'investissement des entreprises, stimule l'investissement et entraîne une meilleure allocation du capital. Mais pour être financièrement soutenable, la réforme nécessite un relèvement du taux de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises de 34\% à 42\%. Cette hausse du taux d'imposition décourage l'accumulation du capital. En somme, la réforme engendre une baisse de l'accumulation du capital et de la production respectivement de 8\% et 1\%. Néanmoins, elle améliore l'allocation du capital de 20\%, engendrant des gains de productivité de 1.41\% et une modeste augmentation du bien être des consommateurs.

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The eruption of Tambora (Indonesia) in April 1815 had substantial effects on global climate and led to the ‘Year Without a Summer’ of 1816 in Europe and North America. Although a tragic event — tens of thousands of people lost their lives — the eruption also was an ‘experiment of nature’ from which science has learned until today. The aim of this study is to summarize our current understanding of the Tambora eruption and its effects on climate as expressed in early instrumental observations, climate proxies and geological evidence, climate reconstructions, and model simulations. Progress has been made with respect to our understanding of the eruption process and estimated amount of SO2 injected into the atmosphere, although large uncertainties still exist with respect to altitude and hemispheric distribution of Tambora aerosols. With respect to climate effects, the global and Northern Hemispheric cooling are well constrained by proxies whereas there is no strong signal in Southern Hemisphere proxies. Newly recovered early instrumental information for Western Europe and parts of North America, regions with particularly strong climate effects, allow Tambora’s effect on the weather systems to be addressed. Climate models respond to prescribed Tambora-like forcing with a strengthening of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex, global cooling and a slowdown of the water cycle, weakening of the summer monsoon circulations, a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and a decrease of atmospheric CO₂. Combining observations, climate proxies, and model simulations for the case of Tambora, a better understanding of climate processes has emerged.

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Thèse réalisée en cotutelle entre l'Université de Montréal et l'Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris 06, Sorbonne Universités.

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Cette thèse est une collection de trois articles en macroéconomie et finances publiques. Elle développe des modèles d'Equilibre Général Dynamique et Stochastique pour analyser les implications macroéconomiques des politiques d'imposition des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Le premier chapitre analyse les mécanismes de transmission à l'économie, des effets d'un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Dans une économie constituée d'un gouvernement, d'une firme représentative et d'un ménage représentatif, j'élabore un théorème de l'équivalence ricardienne avec l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Plus particulièrement, j'établis que si les marchés financiers sont parfaits, un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises qui ne change pas la valeur présente de l'impôt total auquel l'entreprise est assujettie sur toute sa durée de vie n'a aucun effet réel sur l'économie si l'état utilise un impôt forfaitaire. Ensuite, en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits, je montre qu'une une baisse temporaire de l'impôt forfaitaire sur le profit des entreprises stimule l'investissement parce qu'il réduit temporairement le coût marginal de l'investissement. Enfin, mes résultats indiquent que si l'impôt est proportionnel au profit des entreprises, l'anticipation de taxes élevées dans le futur réduit le rendement espéré de l'investissement et atténue la stimulation de l'investissement engendrée par la réduction d'impôt. Le deuxième chapitre est écrit en collaboration avec Rui Castro. Dans cet article, nous avons quantifié les effets sur les décisions individuelles d'investis-sement et de production des entreprises ainsi que sur les agrégats macroéconomiques, d'une baisse temporaire de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Dans un modèle où les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs de productivité idiosyncratiques, nous avons d'abord établi que le rationnement de crédit affecte plus les petites (jeunes) entreprises que les grandes entreprises. Pour des entreprises de même taille, les entreprises les plus productives sont celles qui souffrent le plus du manque de liquidité résultant des imperfections du marché financier. Ensuite, nous montré que pour une baisse de 1 dollar du revenu de l'impôt, l'investissement et la production augmentent respectivement de 26 et 3,5 centimes. L'effet cumulatif indique une augmentation de l'investissement et de la production agrégés respectivement de 4,6 et 7,2 centimes. Au niveau individuel, nos résultats indiquent que la politique stimule l'investissement des petites entreprises, initialement en manque de liquidité, alors qu'elle réduit l'investissement des grandes entreprises, initialement non contraintes. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à l'analyse des effets de la réforme de l'imposition des revenus d'entreprise proposée par le Trésor américain en 1992. La proposition de réforme recommande l'élimination des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital et l'imposition d'une seule taxe sur le revenu des entreprises. Pour ce faire, j'ai eu recours à un modèle dynamique stochastique d'équilibre général avec marchés financiers imparfaits dans lequel les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs idiosyncratiques de productivité. Les résultats indiquent que l'abolition des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital réduisent les distorsions dans les choix d'investissement des entreprises, stimule l'investissement et entraîne une meilleure allocation du capital. Mais pour être financièrement soutenable, la réforme nécessite un relèvement du taux de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises de 34\% à 42\%. Cette hausse du taux d'imposition décourage l'accumulation du capital. En somme, la réforme engendre une baisse de l'accumulation du capital et de la production respectivement de 8\% et 1\%. Néanmoins, elle améliore l'allocation du capital de 20\%, engendrant des gains de productivité de 1.41\% et une modeste augmentation du bien être des consommateurs.

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Traditionally political knowledge was regarded as an important potential outcome for civic education efforts. Most of the currently available research, however, tends to focus on non-cognitive goals, despite the fact that studies repeatedly have shown that political knowledge is an important resource for enlightened and engaged citizenship. In this article, we investigate whether civic education contributes to political knowledge levels. The analysis is based on the Belgian Political Panel Survey, a two year panel study among 2,988 Belgian late adolescents. The analysis shows that experiences with group projects at school contribute significantly to political knowledge levels two years later on. Furthermore, we can observe an interaction effect as those who are already most knowledgeable about politics, gain most from these group projects. Classes about politics, on the other hand, did not have an effect on knowledge levels. In the discussion, it is argued that civic education can have strong cognitive effects, but that these effects are not always related to classical civic education efforts.

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The monitoring of organisms' health conditions by the assessment of their immunocompetence may serve as an important criterion for the achievement of the Good Environmental Status (GES) as defined in the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (EU). In this context, the complex role of natural environmental stressors, e.g. salinity, and interfering or superimposing effects of anthropogenic chemicals, should be carefully considered, especially in scenarios of low to moderate contamination. Organisms from the Baltic Sea have adapted to the ambient salinity regime, however energetically costly osmoregulating processes may have an impact on the capability to respond to additional stress such as contamination. The assessment of multiple stressors, encompassing natural and anthropogenic factors, influencing an organisms' health was the main aim of the present study. Immune responses of Mytilus edulis, collected and kept at natural salinities of 12 per mil (LS) and 20 per mil (MS), respectively, were compared after short-term exposure (1, 7 and 13 days) to low copper concentrations (5, 9 and 16 µg/L Cu). A significant interaction of salinity and copper exposure was observed in copper accumulation. LS mussels accumulated markedly more copper than MS mussels. No combined effects were detected in cellular responses. Bacterial clearance was mostly achieved by phagocytosis, as revealed by a strong positive correlation between bacterial counts and phagocytic activity, which was particularly pronounced in LS mussels. MS mussels, on the other hand, seemingly accomplished bacterial clearance by employing additional humoral factors (16 µg/L Cu). The greatest separating factor in the PCA biplot between LS and MS mussels was the proportion of granulocytes and hyalinocytes while functional parameters (phagocytic activity and bacterial clearance) were hardly affected by salinity, but rather by copper exposure. In conclusion, immune responses of the blue mussel may be suitable and sensitive biomarkers for the assessment of ecosystem health in brackish waters (10-20 per mil S).