A Census-based longitudinal study of variations in survival amongst residents of nursing and residential homes in Northern Ireland

Background: despite the intensive services provided to residents of care homes, information on death rates is not routinely available for this population in the UK. Objective: to quantify mortality rates across the care home population of Northern Ireland, and assess variation by type of care home and resident characteristics. Design: a prospective, Census-based cohort study, with 5-year follow-up. Participants: all 9,072 residents of care homes for people aged 65 and over at the time of the 2001 census with a special emphasis on the 2,112 residents admitted during the year preceding census day. Measurements: age, sex, self-reported health, marital status, residence (not in care home, residential home, dual registered home, nursing home), elderly mentally infirm care provision. Results: the median survival among nursing home residents was 2.33 years (95% CI 2.25–2.59), for dual registered homes 2.75 (95% CI 2.42–3.17) and for residential homes 4.51 (95% CI 3.92–4.92) years. Age, sex and self-reported health showed weaker associations in the sicker populations in nursing homes compared to those in residential care or among the non-institutionalised. Conclusions: the high mortality in care homes indicates that places in care homes are reserved for the most severely ill and dependent. Death rates may not be an appropriate care quality measure for this population, but may serve as a useful adjunct for clinical staff and the planning of care home provision.

Evidence from northwest European bogs shows 'Little Ice Age' climatic changes driven by variations in solar activity

Fluctuations in Holocene atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations have been shown to be due to variations in solar activity. Analyses of both Be-10 and C-14 nuclides confirm that production-rate changes during the Holocene were largely modulated by solar activity. Analyses of peat samples from two intact European ombrotrophic bogs show that climatic deteriorations during the 'Little Ice Age' are associated with transitions to increasing atmospheric C-14 content due to greater C-14 production. Both ombrotrophic mires, which are positioned c. 800 km apart, register reactions to globally recorded C-14 fluctuations between AD 1449 and 1464 and an almost identical reaction between AD 1601 and 1604.

SuperWASP observations of long timescale photometric variations in cataclysmic variables

Aims: We investigated whether the predictions and results of Stanishev et al. (2002, A&A, 394, 625) concerning a possible relationship between eclipse depths in PX And and its retrograde disc precession phase, could be confirmed in long term observations made by SuperWASP. In addition, two further CVs (DQ Her and V795 Her) in the same SuperWASP data set were investigated to see whether evidence of superhump periods and disc precession periods were present and what other, if any, long term periods could be detected. Methods: Long term photometry of PX And, V795 Her and DQ Her was carried out and Lomb-Scargle periodogram analysis undertaken on the resulting light curves. For the two eclipsing CVs, PX And and DQ Her, we analysed the potential variations in the depth of the eclipse with cycle number. Results: The results of our period and eclipse analysis on PX And confirm that the negative superhump period is 0.1417 ± 0.0001d. We find no evidence of positive superhumps in our data suggesting that PX And may have been in a low state during our observations. We improve on existing estimates of the disc precession period and find it to be 4.43 ± 0.05d. Our results confirm the predictions of Stanishev et al. (2002). We find that DQ Her does not appear to show a similar variation for we find no evidence of negative superhumps or of a retrograde disc precession. We also find no evidence of positive superhumps or of a prograde disc precession and we attribute the lack of positive superhumps in DQ Her to be due to the high mass ratio of this CV. We do however find evidence for a modulation of the eclipse depth over a period of 100 days which may be linked with solar-type magnetic cycles which give rise to long term photometric variations. The periodogram analysis for V795 Her detected the likely positive superhump period 0.1165d, however, neither the 0.10826d orbital period nor the prograde 1.53d disc precession period were seen. Here though we have found a variation in the periodogram power function at the positive superhump period, over a period of at least 120 days.

A meta-analysis of latitudinal variations in life-history traits of roach, Rutilus rutilus, over its geographical range: linear or non-linear relationships?

1. We collated information from the literature on life history traits of the roach (a generalist freshwater fish), and analysed variation in absolute fecundity, von Bertalanffy parameters, and reproductive lifespan in relation to latitude, using both linear and non-linear regression models. We hypothesized that because most life history traits are dependent on growth rate, and growth rate is non-linearly related with temperature, it was likely that when analysed over the whole distribution range of roach, variation in key life history traits would show non-linear patterns with latitude.