Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

Bifurcation Analysis of Reaction Diffusion Systems on Arbitrary Surfaces

In this article we present a computational framework for isolating spatial patterns arising in the steady states of reaction-diffusion systems. Such systems have been used to model many different phenomena in areas such as developmental and cancer biology, cell motility and material science. Often one is interested in identifying parameters which will lead to a particular pattern. To attempt to answer this, we compute eigenpairs of the Laplacian on a variety of domains and use linear stability analysis to determine parameter values for the system that will lead to spatially inhomogeneous steady states whose patterns correspond to particular eigenfunctions. This method has previously been used on domains and surfaces where the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions are found analytically in closed form. Our contribution to this methodology is that we numerically compute eigenpairs on arbitrary domains and surfaces. Here we present various examples and demonstrate that mode isolation is straightforward especially for low eigenvalues. Additionally we see that if two or more eigenvalues are in a permissible range then the inhomogeneous steady state can be a linear combination of the respective eigenfunctions. Finally we show an example which suggests that pattern formation is robust on similar surfaces in cases that the surface either has or does not have a boundary.

Short-term variations in radiolarian faunal dsitribution in the eastern equatorial Pacific

Two short time intervals centered at 2.3 and 4.7 Ma were studied to investigate short-term variations in surface-ocean processes as indicated by changes in the radiolarian microfossil population. These time intervals represent two different settings of late Neogene climate. The older interval represents a time when tropical circulation between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans was not blocked by the Isthmus of Panama, whereas the younger interval represents a time when Northern Hemisphere glaciation was present but did not display the dominance of the 100,000-yr cycle that characterizes the late Pleistocene. The younger time slice at 2.3 Ma was sampled at all Leg 138 sites except Site 844, where significant reworking was evident. All sites except 844, 853, and 854 were sampled for the older time slice. Samples were taken at 10- to 20-cm intervals at each site and spanned a GRAPE density maximum and minimum. Thus, it was possible to investigate whether the changes in carbonate content (as indicated by GRAPE density) were associated with changes in surface-ocean conditions (indicated by radiolarian assemblage variations). For both time slices, the radiolarian data indicate that intervals of decreased carbonate content are periods of cooler water conditions and possibly enhanced biogenic production. Times of increased carbonate content are associated with inferred warmer oceanographic conditions, as indicated by the dominance of tropical assemblages at 2.3 Ma and tropical and western Pacific assemblages during the time slice centered at 4.8 Ma. However, the spatial patterns of change during each time slice show a distinct difference in the mapped patterns of radiolarian assemblage dominance. The older time slice, representing a period before the closing of the Isthmus of Panama, shows more zonal patterns presumably associated with a more zonal character of equatorial circulation. After the closing of the isthmus, the shifts in faunal patterns between times of high and low carbonates are characterized by shifts in the dominance of the tropical and transitional assemblages, respectively, throughout the region.

Sea surface temperature and stable isotopes from 9 cores of the Northeastern Atlantic

Temporal and spatial patterns in eastern North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SST) were reconstructed for marine isotope stage (MIS) 11c using a submeridional transect of five sediment cores. The SST reconstructions are based on planktic foraminiferal abundances and alkenone indices, and are supported by benthic and planktic stable isotope measurements, as well as by ice-rafted debris content in polar and middle latitudes. Additionally, the larger-scale dynamics of the precipitation regime over northern Africa and the western Mediterranean region was evaluated from iron concentrations in marine sediments off NW Africa and planktic d13C in combination with analysis of planktic foraminiferal abundances down to the species level in the Mediterranean Sea. Compared to the modern situation, it is revealed that during entire MIS 11c sensu stricto (ss), i.e., between 420 and 398 ka according to our age models, a cold SST anomaly in the Nordic seas co-existed with a warm SST anomaly in the middle latitudes and the subtropics, resulting in steeper meridional SST gradients than during the Holocene. Such a SST pattern correlates well with a prevalence of a negative mode of the modern North Atlantic Oscillation. We suggest that our scenario might partly explain the longer duration of wet conditions in the northern Africa during MIS 11c compared to the Holocene.

Conservation of freshwater thermal habitats for Pacific salmon in a changing climate

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Thinking Local About Self-Driving Cars: a Local Framework for Autonomous Vehicle Development in the United States

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Assessment of relationships between precipitation and satellite derived vegetation condition in South Australia

The normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) has evolved as a primary tool for monitoring continental-scale vegetation changes and interpreting the impact of short to long-term climatic events on the biosphere. The objective of this research was to assess the nature of relationships between precipitation and vegetation condition, as measured by the satellite-derived NDVI within South Australia. The correlation, timing and magnitude of the NDVI response to precipitation were examined for different vegetation formations within the State (forest, scrubland, shrubland, woodland and grassland). Results from this study indicate that there are strong relationships between precipitation and NDVI both spatially and temporally within South Australia. Differences in the timing of the NDVI response to precipitation were evident among the five vegetation formations. The most significant relationship between rainfall and NDVI was within the forest formation. Negative correlations between NDVI and precipitation events indicated that vegetation green-up is a result of seasonal patterns in precipitation. Spatial patterns in the average NDVI over the study period closely resembled the boundaries of the five classified vegetation formations within South Australia. Spatial variability within the NDVI data set over the study period differed greatly between and within the vegetation formations examined depending on the location within the state. ACRONYMS AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer ENVSAEnvironments of South Australia EOS Terra-Earth Observing System EVIEnhanced Vegetation Index MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer MVC Maximum Value Composite NDVINormalised Difference Vegetation Index NIRNear Infra-Red NOAANational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration SPOT Systeme Pour l’Observation de la Terre. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat selection and population regulation in temporally fluctuating environments

Understanding and predicting the distribution of organisms in heterogeneous environments lies at the heart of ecology, and the theory of density-dependent habitat selection (DDHS) provides ecologists with an inferential framework linking evolution and population dynamics. Current theory does not allow for temporal variation in habitat quality, a serious limitation when confronted with real ecological systems. We develop both a stochastic equivalent of the ideal free distribution to study how spatial patterns of habitat use depend on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity and also a stochastic habitat selection rule. The emerging patterns are confronted with deterministic predictions based on isodar analysis, an established empirical approach to the analysis of habitat selection patterns. Our simulations highlight some consistent patterns of habitat use, indicating that it is possible to make inferences about the habitat selection process based on observed patterns of habitat use. However, isodar analysis gives results that are contingent on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity. Hence, DDHS is better revealed by a measure of habitat selectivity than by empirical isodars. The detection of DDHS is but a small component of isodar theory, which remains an important conceptual framework for linking evolutionary strategies in behavior and population dynamics.

Management of plant invasions mediated by frugivore interactions

1. Some of the most damaging invasive plants are dispersed by frugivores and this is an area of emerging importance in weed management. It highlights the need for practical information on how frugivores affect weed population dynamics and spread, how frugivore populations are affected by weeds and what management recommendations are available. 2. Fruit traits influence frugivore choice. Fruit size, the presence of an inedible peel, defensive chemistry, crop size and phenology may all be useful traits for consideration in screening and eradication programmes. By considering the effect of these traits on the probability, quality and quantity of seed dispersal, it may be possible to rank invasive species by their desirability to frugivores. Fruit traits can also be manipulated with biocontrol agents. 3. Functional groups of frugivores can be assembled according to broad species groupings, and further refined according to size, gape size, pre- and post-ingestion processing techniques and movement patterns, to predict dispersal and establishment patterns for plant introductions. 4. Landscape fragmentation can increase frugivore dispersal of invasives, as many invasive plants and dispersers readily use disturbed matrix environments and fragment edges. Dispersal to particular landscape features, such as perches and edges, can be manipulated to function as seed sinks if control measures are concentrated in these areas. 5.Where invasive plants comprise part of the diet of native frugivores, there may be a conservation conflict between control of the invasive and maintaining populations of the native frugivore, especially where other threats such as habitat destruction have reduced populations of native fruit species. 6. Synthesis and applications. Development of functional groups of frugivore-dispersed invasive plants and dispersers will enable us to develop predictions for novel dispersal interactions at both population and community scales. Increasingly sophisticated mechanistic seed dispersal models combined with spatially explicit simulations show much promise for providing weed managers with the information they need to develop strategies for surveying, eradicating and managing plant invasions. Possible conservation conflicts mean that understanding the nature of the invasive plant-frugivore interaction is essential for determining appropriate management.

Regional climate change and harmful algal blooms in the northeast Atlantic

We investigated long-term spatial variability in a number of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Over the last four decades. some dinoflagellate taxa showed pronounced variation in the south and east of the North Sea, with the most significant increases being restricted to the adjacent waters off Norway. There was also a general decrease along the eastern coast of the United Kingdom. The most prominent feature in the interannual bloom frequencies over the last four decades was the anomalously high values recorded in the late 1980s in the northern and central North Sea areas. The only mesoscale area in the northeast Atlantic to show a significant increase in bloom formation over the last decade was the Norwegian coastal region. The changing spatial patterns of HAB taxa and the frequency of bloom formation are discussed in relation to regional climate change, in particular, changes in temperature, salinity, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Areas highly vulnerable to the effects of regional climate change on HABs are Norwegian coastal waters and the Skagerrak. Other vulnerable areas include Danish coastal waters, and to a lesser extent, the German and Dutch Bight and the northern Irish Sea. Quite apart from eutrophication, our results give a preview of what might happen to certain HAB genera under changing climatic conditions in temperate environments and their responses to variability of climate oscillations Such as the NAO.

Restricted mating dispersal and strong breeding group structure in a mid-sized marsupial mammal (Petrogale penicillata)

Ecological genetic studies have demonstrated that spatial patterns of mating dispersal, the dispersal of gametes through mating behaviour, can facilitate inbreeding avoidance and strongly influence the structure of populations, particularly in highly philopatric species. Elements of breeding group dynamics, such as strong structuring and sex-biased dispersal among groups, can also minimize inbreeding and positively influence levels of genetic diversity within populations. Rock-wallabies are highly philopatric mid-sized mammals whose strong dependence on rocky terrain has resulted in series of discreet, small colonies in the landscape. Populations show no signs of inbreeding and maintain high levels of genetic diversity despite strong patterns of limited gene flow within and among colonies. We used this species to investigate the importance of mating dispersal and breeding group structure to inbreeding avoidance within a 'small' population. We examined the spatial patterns of mating dispersal, the extent of kinship within breeding groups, and the degree of relatedness among brush-tailed rock-wallaby breeding pairs within a colony in southeast Queensland. Parentage data revealed remarkably restricted mating dispersal and strong breeding group structuring for a mid-sized mammal. Breeding groups showed significant levels of female kinship with evidence of male dispersal among groups. We found no evidence for inbreeding avoidance through mate choice; however, anecdotal data suggest the importance of life history traits to inbreeding avoidance between first-degree relatives. We suggest that the restricted pattern of mating dispersal and strong breeding group structuring facilitates inbreeding avoidance within colonies. These results provide insight into the population structure and maintenance of genetic diversity within colonies of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby.

Clustering of Pick bodies in the dentate gyrus in Pick's disease

In patients with Pick's disease (PD), high densities of tau positive Pick bodies (PB) have been observed within the granule cell layer of the dentate gyrus. This study investigated the spatial patterns of PB along the granule cell layer in coronal sections of the hippocampus in eight patients with PD. In all patients, there was evidence of clustering of PB within the granule cell layer; however, there was considerable variation in the pattern of clustering. In five patients, the clusters of PB were regularly distributed along the dentate gyms, and in two of these patients, the smaller clusters were aggregated into larger superclusters. In three patients, a single large cluster of PB, more than 1200 μm in diameter, was present. Clustering of PB may reflect a primary degenerative process within the granule cells or the degeneration of pathways that project to the dentate gyrus.

Clustering of neuronal inclusions in "dementia with neurofilament inclusions"

Dementia with neurofilament inclusions (DNI) is a new disorder characterized clinically by early-onset dementia and histologically by the presence of intraneural inclusions immunopositive for neurofilament antigens but lacking tau and α-synuclein reactivity. We studied the clustering patterns of the neurofilament inclusions (NI) in regions of the temporal lobe in three cases of DNI to determine whether they have the same spatial patterns as inclusions in the tauopathies and α-synucleinopathies. The NI exhibited a clustered distribution (mean size of clusters 400 μm, range 50-800 μm, SD 687.8) in 24/28 of the areas studied. In 22 of these areas, the clusters exhibited a regular distribution along the tissue parallel to the pia mater or alveus. In 3 cortical areas, there was evidence of a more complex pattern in which the NI clusters were aggregated into larger superclusters. In 6 cortical areas, the size of the clusters approximated to those of the cells of origin of the cortico-cortical pathways but in the remaining areas cluster size was smaller than 400 μm. Despite the unique molecular profile of the NI, their spatial patterns are similar to those shown by filamentous neuronal inclusions in the tauopathies and α-synucleinopathies.

Clustering of Pick bodies in patients with Pick's disease

Clustering of Pick bodies (PB) was studied in the frontal and temporal lobe in 10 cases of Pick's disease (PD). Pick bodies exhibited clustering in 47/50 (94%) brain areas analysed. In 20/50 (40%) brain areas, PB were present in a single large cluster ≤ 6400 μm in diameter, in 27/50 (54%) PB occurred in smaller clusters (200-3200 μm in diameter) which exhibited a regular periodicity relative to the tissue boundary, in 1/50 (2%) there was a regular distribution of individual PB and in 2/50 (4%), PB were randomly distributed. Mean cluster size of the PB was greater in the dentate gyrus compared with the inferior temporal gyrus and lateral occipitotemporal gyrus. Mean cluster size of PB in a brain region was positively correlated with the mean density of PB. Hence, PB exhibit essentially the same spatial patterns as senile plaques and neurofibrillary tangles in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Lewy bodies in Dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB).