Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

Raum-zeitliche Analyse der Klimavariabilität anhand von hochaufgelösten interpolierten Klimakarten am Beispiel von Europa (Region VI der Weltorganisation für Meteorologie)

Klimamontoring benötigt eine operative, raum-zeitliche Analyse der Klimavariabilität. Mit dieser Zielsetzung, funktionsbereite Karten regelmäßig zu erstellen, ist es hilfreich auf einen Blick, die räumliche Variabilität der Klimaelemente in der zeitlichen Veränderungen darzustellen. Für aktuelle und kürzlich vergangene Jahre entwickelte der Deutsche Wetterdienst ein Standardverfahren zur Erstellung solcher Karten. Die Methode zur Erstellung solcher Karten variiert für die verschiedenen Klimaelemente bedingt durch die Datengrundlage, die natürliche Variabilität und der Verfügbarkeit der in-situ Daten.rnIm Rahmen der Analyse der raum-zeitlichen Variabilität innerhalb dieser Dissertation werden verschiedene Interpolationsverfahren auf die Mitteltemperatur der fünf Dekaden der Jahre 1951-2000 für ein relativ großes Gebiet, der Region VI der Weltorganisation für Meteorologie (Europa und Naher Osten) angewendet. Die Region deckt ein relativ heterogenes Arbeitsgebiet von Grönland im Nordwesten bis Syrien im Südosten hinsichtlich der Klimatologie ab.rnDas zentrale Ziel der Dissertation ist eine Methode zur räumlichen Interpolation der mittleren Dekadentemperaturwerte für die Region VI zu entwickeln. Diese Methode soll in Zukunft für die operative monatliche Klimakartenerstellung geeignet sein. Diese einheitliche Methode soll auf andere Klimaelemente übertragbar und mit der entsprechenden Software überall anwendbar sein. Zwei zentrale Datenbanken werden im Rahmen dieser Dissertation verwendet: So genannte CLIMAT-Daten über dem Land und Schiffsdaten über dem Meer.rnIm Grunde wird die Übertragung der Punktwerte der Temperatur per räumlicher Interpolation auf die Fläche in drei Schritten vollzogen. Der erste Schritt beinhaltet eine multiple Regression zur Reduktion der Stationswerte mit den vier Einflussgrößen der Geographischen Breite, der Höhe über Normalnull, der Jahrestemperaturamplitude und der thermischen Kontinentalität auf ein einheitliches Niveau. Im zweiten Schritt werden die reduzierten Temperaturwerte, so genannte Residuen, mit der Interpolationsmethode der Radialen Basis Funktionen aus der Gruppe der Neuronalen Netzwerk Modelle (NNM) interpoliert. Im letzten Schritt werden die interpolierten Temperaturraster mit der Umkehrung der multiplen Regression aus Schritt eins mit Hilfe der vier Einflussgrößen auf ihr ursprüngliches Niveau hochgerechnet.rnFür alle Stationswerte wird die Differenz zwischen geschätzten Wert aus der Interpolation und dem wahren gemessenen Wert berechnet und durch die geostatistische Kenngröße des Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) wiedergegeben. Der zentrale Vorteil ist die wertegetreue Wiedergabe, die fehlende Generalisierung und die Vermeidung von Interpolationsinseln. Das entwickelte Verfahren ist auf andere Klimaelemente wie Niederschlag, Schneedeckenhöhe oder Sonnenscheindauer übertragbar.

ZeroG: overground gait and balance training system

A new overground body-weight support system called ZeroG has been developed that allows patients with severe gait impairments to practice gait and balance activities in a safe, controlled manner. The unloading system is capable of providing up to 300 lb of static support and 150 lb of dynamic (or constant force) support using a custom-series elastic actuator. The unloading system is mounted to a driven trolley, which rides along an overhead rail. We evaluated the performance of ZeroG's unloading system, as well as the trolley tracking system, using benchtop and human-subject testing. Average root-mean-square and peak errors in unloading were 2.2 and 7.2 percent, respectively, over the range of forces tested while trolley tracking errors were less than 3 degrees, indicating the system was able to maintain its position above the subject. We believe training with ZeroG will allow patients to practice activities that are critical to achieving functional independence at home and in the community.

Absolute pKa Determinations for Substituted Phenols

The CBS-QB3 method was used to calculate the gas-phase free energy difference between 20 phenols and their respective anions, and the CPCM continuum solvation method was applied to calculate the free energy differences of solvation for the phenols and their anions. The CPCM solvation calculations were performed on both gas-phase and solvent-phase optimized structures. Absolute pKa calculations with solvated phase optimized structures for the CPCM calculations yielded standard deviations and root-mean-square errors of less than 0.4 pKa unit. This study is the most accurate absolute determination of the pKa values of phenols, and is among the most accurate of any such calculations for any group of compounds. The ability to make accurate predictions of pKa values using a coherent, well-defined approach, without external approximations or fitting to experimental data, is of general importance to the chemical community. The solvated phase optimized structures of the anions are absolutely critical to obtain this level of accuracy, and yield a more realistic charge separation between the negatively charged oxygen and the ring system of the phenoxide anions.

Comparison of CBS-QB3, CBS-APNO, and G3 predictions of gas phase deprotonation data

The G3, CBS-QB3, and CBS-APNO methods have been used to calculate ΔH and ΔG values for deprotonation of seventeen gas-phase reactions where the experimental values are reported to be accurate within one kcal/mol. For these reactions, the mean absolute deviation of these three methods from experiment is 0.84 to 1.26 kcal/mol, and the root-mean-square deviation for ΔG and ΔH is 1.43 and 1.49 kcal/mol for the CBS-QB3 method, 1.06 and 1.14 kcal/mol for the CBS-APNO method, and 1.16 and 1.28 for the G3 method. The high accuracy of these methods makes them reliable for calculating gas-phase deprotonation reactions, and allows them to serve as a valuable check on the accuracy of experimental data reported in the National Institutes of Standards and Technology database.

Validation of a modified AVHRR aerosol optical depth retrieval algorithm over Central Europe

The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) carried on board the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Meteorological Operational Satellite (MetOp) polar orbiting satellites is the only instrument offering more than 25 years of satellite data to analyse aerosols on a daily basis. The present study assessed a modified AVHRR aerosol optical depth τa retrieval over land for Europe. The algorithm might also be applied to other parts of the world with similar surface characteristics like Europe, only the aerosol properties would have to be adapted to a new region. The initial approach used a relationship between Sun photometer measurements from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the satellite data to post-process the retrieved τa. Herein a quasi-stand-alone procedure, which is more suitable for the pre-AERONET era, is presented. In addition, the estimation of surface reflectance, the aerosol model, and other processing steps have been adapted. The method's cross-platform applicability was tested by validating τa from NOAA-17 and NOAA-18 AVHRR at 15 AERONET sites in Central Europe (40.5° N–50° N, 0° E–17° E) from August 2005 to December 2007. Furthermore, the accuracy of the AVHRR retrieval was related to products from two newer instruments, the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) on board the Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board Aqua/Terra. Considering the linear correlation coefficient R, the AVHRR results were similar to those of MERIS with even lower root mean square error RMSE. Not surprisingly, MODIS, with its high spectral coverage, gave the highest R and lowest RMSE. Regarding monthly averaged τa, the results were ambiguous. Focusing on small-scale structures, R was reduced for all sensors, whereas the RMSE solely for MERIS substantially increased. Regarding larger areas like Central Europe, the error statistics were similar to the individual match-ups. This was mainly explained with sampling issues. With the successful validation of AVHRR we are now able to concentrate on our large data archive dating back to 1985. This is a unique opportunity for both climate and air pollution studies over land surfaces.

Effect of pulsatility on the mathematical modeling of rotary blood pumps

In this study, the effect of time derivatives of flow rate and rotational speed was investigated on the mathematical modeling of a rotary blood pump (RBP). The basic model estimates the pressure head of the pump as a dependent variable using measured flow and speed as predictive variables. Performance of the model was evaluated by adding time derivative terms for flow and speed. First, to create a realistic working condition, the Levitronix CentriMag RBP was implanted in a sheep. All parameters from the model were physically measured and digitally acquired over a wide range of conditions, including pulsatile speed. Second, a statistical analysis of the different variables (flow, speed, and their time derivatives) based on multiple regression analysis was performed to determine the significant variables for pressure head estimation. Finally, different mathematical models were used to show the effect of time derivative terms on the performance of the models. In order to evaluate how well the estimated pressure head using different models fits the measured pressure head, root mean square error and correlation coefficient were used. The results indicate that inclusion of time derivatives of flow and speed can improve model accuracy, but only minimally.

Examining the Role of Vocational Rehabilitation on Access to Care and Public Health Outcomes for People Living with HIV/AIDS

The purpose of this study is to examine the role of vocational rehabilitation services in contributing to the goals of the National HIV/AIDS strategy. Three key research questions are addressed: (a) What is the relationship among factors associated with the use of vocational rehabilitation services for people living with HIV/AIDS? (b) Are the factors associated with use of vocational rehabilitation also associated with access to health care, supplemental employment services and reduced risk of HIV transmission? And (c) What unique role does use of vocational rehabilitation services play in access to health care and HIV prevention? Survey research methods were used to collect data from a broad sample of volunteer respondents who represented diverse racial (37% Black, 37% White, 18% Latino, 7% other), gender (65% male, 34% female, 1% transgender) and sexual orientation (48% heterosexual, 44% gay, 8% bisexual) backgrounds. The fit of the final structural equation model was good (root mean square error of approximation = .055, Comparative Fit Index=.953, Tucker Lewis Index=.945). Standardized effects with bootstrap confidence intervals are reported. Overall, the findings support the hypothesis that vocational rehabilitation services can play an important role in health and prevention strategies outlined in the National HIV/AIDS strategy.

Physical activity intensity and surrogate markers for cardiovascular health in adolescents

We examined the impact of physical activity (PA) on surrogate markers of cardiovascular health in adolescents. 52 healthy students (28 females, mean age 14.5 ± 0.7 years) were investigated. Microvascular endothelial function was assessed by peripheral arterial tonometry to determine reactive hyperemic index (RHI). Vagal activity was measured using 24 h analysis of heart rate variability [root mean square of successive normal-to-normal intervals (rMSSD)]. Exercise testing was performed to determine peak oxygen uptake ([Formula: see text]) and maximum power output. PA was assessed by accelerometry. Linear regression models were performed and adjusted for age, sex, skinfolds, and pubertal status. The cohort was dichotomized into two equally sized activity groups (low vs. high) based on the daily time spent in moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA, 3,000-5,200 counts(.)min(-1), model 1) and vigorous PA (VPA, >5,200 counts(.)min(-1), model 2). MVPA was an independent predictor for rMSSD (β = 0.448, P = 0.010), and VPA was associated with maximum power output (β = 0.248, P = 0.016). In model 1, the high MVPA group exhibited a higher vagal tone (rMSSD 49.2 ± 13.6 vs. 38.1 ± 11.7 ms, P = 0.006) and a lower systolic blood pressure (107.3 ± 9.9 vs. 112.9 ± 8.1 mmHg, P = 0.046). In model 2, the high VPA group had higher maximum power output values (3.9 ± 0.5 vs. 3.4 ± 0.5 W kg(-1), P = 0.012). In both models, no significant differences were observed for RHI and [Formula: see text]. In conclusion, in healthy adolescents, PA was associated with beneficial intensity-dependent effects on vagal tone, systolic blood pressure, and exercise capacity, but not on microvascular endothelial function.

High-resolution morphological and biochemical imaging of articular cartilage of the ankle joint at 3.0 T using a new dedicated phased array coil: in vivo reproducibility study

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and reproducibility of high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and quantitative T2 mapping of the talocrural cartilage within a clinically applicable scan time using a new dedicated ankle coil and high-field MRI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ten healthy volunteers (mean age 32.4 years) underwent MRI of the ankle. As morphological sequences, proton density fat-suppressed turbo spin echo (PD-FS-TSE), as a reference, was compared with 3D true fast imaging with steady-state precession (TrueFISP). Furthermore, biochemical quantitative T2 imaging was prepared using a multi-echo spin-echo T2 approach. Data analysis was performed three times each by three different observers on sagittal slices, planned on the isotropic 3D-TrueFISP; as a morphological parameter, cartilage thickness was assessed and for T2 relaxation times, region-of-interest (ROI) evaluation was done. Reproducibility was determined as a coefficient of variation (CV) for each volunteer; averaged as root mean square (RMSA) given as a percentage; statistical evaluation was done using analysis of variance. RESULTS: Cartilage thickness of the talocrural joint showed significantly higher values for the 3D-TrueFISP (ranging from 1.07 to 1.14 mm) compared with the PD-FS-TSE (ranging from 0.74 to 0.99 mm); however, both morphological sequences showed comparable good results with RMSA of 7.1 to 8.5%. Regarding quantitative T2 mapping, measurements showed T2 relaxation times of about 54 ms with an excellent reproducibility (RMSA) ranging from 3.2 to 4.7%. CONCLUSION: In our study the assessment of cartilage thickness and T2 relaxation times could be performed with high reproducibility in a clinically realizable scan time, demonstrating new possibilities for further investigations into patient groups.

Sonic log prediction in carbonates

This work is conducted to study the complications associated with the sonic log prediction in carbonate logs and to investigate the possible solutions to accurately predict the sonic logs in Traverse Limestone. Well logs from fifty different wells were analyzed to define the mineralogy of the Traverse Limestone by using conventional 4-mineral and 3-mineral identification approaches. We modified the conventional 3-mineral identification approach (that completely neglects the gamma ray response) to correct the shale effects on the basis of gamma ray log before employing the 3-mineral identification. This modification helped to get the meaningful insight of the data when a plot was made between DGA (dry grain density) and UMA (Photoelectric Volumetric Cross-section) with the characteristic ternary diagram of the quartz, calcite and dolomite. The results were then compared with the 4-mineral identification approach. Contour maps of the average mineral fractions present in the Traverse Limestone were prepared to see the basin wide mineralogy of Traverse Limestone. In the second part, sonic response of Traverse Limestone was predicted in fifty randomly distributed wells. We used the modified time average equation that accounts for the shale effects on the basis of gamma ray log, and used it to predict the sonic behavior from density porosity and average porosity. To account for the secondary porosity of dolomite, we subtracted the dolomitic fraction of clean porosity from the total porosity. The pseudo-sonic logs were then compared with the measured sonic logs on the root mean square (RMS) basis. Addition of dolomite correction in modified time average equation improved the results of sonic prediction from neutron porosity and average porosity. The results demonstrated that sonic logs could be predicted in carbonate rocks with a root mean square error of about 4μsec/ft. We also attempted the use of individual mineral components for sonic log prediction but the ambiguities in mineral fractions and in the sonic properties of the minerals limited the accuracy of the results.

Accelerometer based measurements of combustion in an automotive turbocharged diesel engine

The capability to detect combustion in a diesel engine has the potential of being an important control feature to meet increasingly stringent emission regulations, develop alternative combustion strategies, and use of biofuels. In this dissertation, block mounted accelerometers were investigated as potential feedback sensors for detecting combustion characteristics in a high-speed, high pressure common rail (HPCR), 1.9L diesel engine. Accelerometers were positioned in multiple placements and orientations on the engine, and engine testing was conducted under motored, single and pilot-main injection conditions. Engine tests were conducted at varying injection timings, engine loads, and engine speeds to observe the resulting time and frequency domain changes of the cylinder pressure and accelerometer signals. The frequency content of the cylinder pressure based signals and the accelerometer signals between 0.5 kHz and 6 kHz indicated a strong correlation with coherence values of nearly 1. The accelerometers were used to produce estimated combustion signals using the Frequency Response Functions (FRF) measured from the frequency domain characteristics of the cylinder pressure signals and the response of the accelerometers attached to the engine block. When compared to the actual combustion signals, the estimated combustion signals produced from the accelerometer response had Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) between 7% and 25% of the actual signals peak value. Weighting the FRF’s from multiple test conditions along their frequency axis with the coherent output power reduced the median RMSE of the estimated combustion signals and the 95th percentile of RMSE produced from each test condition. The RMSE’s of the magnitude based combustion metrics including peak cylinder pressure, MPG, peak ROHR, and work estimated from the combustion signals produced by the accelerometer responses were between 15% and 50% of their actual value. The MPG measured from the estimated pressure gradient shared a direct relationship to the actual MPG. The location based combustion metrics such as the location of peak values and burn durations were capable of RMSE measurements as low as 0.9°. Overall, accelerometer based combustion sensing system was capable of detecting combustion and providing feedback regarding the in cylinder combustion process

USING AUTO- AND CROSS-CORRELATIONS FROM SEISMIC NOISE TO MONITOR VELOCITY CHANGES AT VILLARRICA VOLCANO, CHILE

We used the Green's functions from auto-correlations and cross-correlations of seismic ambient noise to monitor temporal velocity changes in the subsurface at Villarrica volcano in the Southern Andes of Chile. Campaigns were conducted from March to October 2010 and February to April 2011 with 8 broadband and 6 short-period stations, respectively. We prepared the data by removing the instrument response, normalizing with a root-mean-square method, whitening the spectra, and filtering from 1 to 10 Hz. This frequency band was chosen based on the relatively high background noise level in that range. Hour-long auto- and cross-correlations were computed and the Green's functions stacked by day and total time. To track the temporal velocity changes we stretched a 24 hour moving window of correlation functions from 90% to 110% of the original and cross correlated them with the total stack. All of the stations' auto-correlations detected what is interpreted as an increase in velocity in 2010, with an average increase of 0.13%. Cross-correlations from station V01, near the summit, to the other stations show comparable changes that are also interpreted as increases in velocity. We attribute this change to the closing of cracks in the subsurface due either to seasonal snow loading or regional tectonics. In addition to the common increase in velocity across the stations, there are excursions in velocity on the same order lasting several days. Amplitude decreases as the station's distance from the vent increases suggesting these excursions may be attributed to changes within the volcanic edifice. In at least two occurrences the amplitudes at stations V06 and V07, the stations farthest from the vent, are smaller. Similar short temporal excursions were seen in the auto-correlations from 2011, however, there was little to no increase in the overall velocity.

Individualization of 5-fluorocytosine therapy

Using a convenient and fast HPLC procedure we determined serum concentrations of the fungistatic agent 5-fluorocytosine (5-FC) in 375 samples from 60 patients treated with this drug. The mean trough concentration (n = 127) was 64.3 mg/l (range: 11.8-208.0 mg/l), the mean peak concentration (n = 122) was 99.9 mg/l (range: 25.6-263.8 mg/l), the mean nonpeak/nontrough concentration (n = 126) was 80.1 mg/l (range: 10.5-268.0 mg/l). Totally 134 (35.7%) samples were outside the therapeutic range (25-100 mg/l), 108 (28.8%) being too high, 26 (6.9%) being too low. Forty-four (73%) patients showed 5-FC serum concentrations outside the therapeutic range at least once during the treatment course. In a prospective study we performed 65 dosage predictions on 30 patients by use of a 3-point method previously developed for aminoglycoside dosage adaptation. The mean absolute prediction error of the dosage adaptation was +0.7 mg/l (range: -26.0 to +28.0 mg/l). The root mean square prediction error was 10.7 mg/l. The mean predicted concentration (65.3 mg/l) agreed very well with the mean measured concentration (64.6 mg/l). The frequency distribution of 5-FC serum concentrations indicates that 5-FC monitoring is important. The applied pharmacokinetic method allows individual adaptations of 5-FC dosage with a clinically acceptable prediction error.

Landmark-based augmented reality system for paranasal and transnasal endoscopic surgeries

BACKGROUND: In this paper we present a landmark-based augmented reality (AR) endoscope system for endoscopic paranasal and transnasal surgeries along with fast and automatic calibration and registration procedures for the endoscope. METHODS: Preoperatively the surgeon selects natural landmarks or can define new landmarks in CT volume. These landmarks are overlaid, after proper registration of preoperative CT to the patient, on the endoscopic video stream. The specified name of the landmark, along with selected colour and its distance from the endoscope tip, is also augmented. The endoscope optics are calibrated and registered by fast and automatic methods. Accuracy of the system is evaluated in a metallic grid and cadaver set-up. RESULTS: Root mean square (RMS) error of the system is 0.8 mm in a controlled laboratory set-up (metallic grid) and was 2.25 mm during cadaver studies. CONCLUSIONS: A novel landmark-based AR endoscope system is implemented and its accuracy is evaluated. Augmented landmarks will help the surgeon to orientate and navigate the surgical field. Studies prove the capability of the system for the proposed application. Further clinical studies are planned in near future.