Short-term energy forecasting using time series techniques: Chile, a case study

Includes bibliography

What is BRT? Rolling out the Metrobús in Buenos Aires, Argentina

This issue of the FAL bulletin describes the Metrobús line which recently started operating in Buenos Aires and provides a preliminary analysis of its performance.

Provocações brasileiras: a imprensa contracultural made in Brazil : coluna Underground (1969-1971), Flor do mal (1971) & a Rolling Stone brasileira (1972-1973)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Weather forecasting for Eastern Amazon with OLAM model

O modelo OLAM tem como característica a vantagem de representar simultaneamente os fenômenos meteorológicos de escala global e regional através de um esquema de refinamento de grades. Durante o projeto REMAM, o modelo foi aplicado para alguns estudos de caso com objetivo de avaliar o desempenho do modelo na previsão numérica de tempo para a região leste da Amazônia. Estudos de caso foram feitos para os doze meses do ano de 2009. Os resultados do modelo para estes casos foram comparados com dados observados na região de estudo. A análise dos dados de precipitação mostrou que o modelo consegue representar a distribuição média da precipitação acumulada e os aspectos da sazonalidade da ocorrência dos eventos, mas não consegue prever individualmente a acumulação de precipitação local. No entanto, avaliação individual de alguns casos mostrou que o modelo OLAM conseguiu representar dinamicamente e prever, com alguns dias de antecedência, o desenvolvimento de fenômenos meteorológicos costeiros como as linhas de instabilidade, que são um dos mais importantes sistemas precipitantes da Amazônia.

The rolling ball problem on the plane revisited

By a sequence of rollings without slipping or twisting along segments of a straight line of the plane, a spherical ball of unit radius has to be transferred from an initial state to an arbitrary final state taking into account the orientation of the ball. We provide a new proof that with at most 3 moves, we can go from a given initial state to an arbitrary final state. The first proof of this result is due to Hammersley ( 1983). His proof is more algebraic than ours which is more geometric. We also showed that generically no one of the three moves, in any elimination of the spin discrepancy, may have length equal to an integral multiple of 2 pi.

The bias in reversing the Box-Cox transformation in time series forecasting: An empirical study based on neural networks

The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determining spatial resolution in spatial load forecasting using a grid-based model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Rolling Stone Brasil: aspectos de interatividade

The purpose of the present dissertation is to show the interactivity connections featured in a cultural journalism magazine's website through direct observation of its presented structure. The website chosen as object of study is Rolling Stone Brasil, April 2010 being the point of reference for analysis. Methodological support for such study has been culled from theoretical works on the principles that are necessary for the development of sampling in the observed structure. For this, are employed of concepts and strategies predicated by authors in the field of communications with emphasis on digital means is aplicated. The research indicates that the tools adopted in the website's structure comprise a potential of interactivity between the parties involved in the communication chain, and that the content therein produced may be considered as direct content of a web journalism structure

Imprensa alternativa e contracultura: o jornal brasileiro Rolling Stone de 1972

The present monograph is a historical research of one of the brazilian newspapers in a journalistic heterogeneous effervescence, referring to the proliferation of vehicles on alternative libertarians of the 60/70. The project gives visibility to the Rolling Stone newspaper as the document that disproved their own relevancy in the viability of the music production and counterculture inspired by North America, developing the repercussion of the new behavior of young flower power in the country. The personality of those who were in the journalistic team, the production schema, editorial and proposed tariffs would be in total congruency with the countercultural movement

Estimation of a preference map of new consumers for spatial load forecasting simulation methods using a spatial analysis of points

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Revista Rolling Stone Brasil: em busca do perfil ideal do leitor do site

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo buscar características que ajudem a definir quem é o público leitor do site da Rolling Stone Brasil, levantando a questão da migração de revistas que surgiram antes da internet para o ciberespaço. Para isso, com base em revisão bibliográfica, retornamos na história para resgatar as origens da versão impressa da publicação e das origens do próprio jornalismo de revista. Com base em uma pesquisa sobre o que se chamou de Perfis Digigraficos e com realização de entrevistas com os editores do site e da revista Rolling Stone Brasil, concluímos que este perfil, aqui chamado de ideal, não está relacionado com idade, gênero e gosto musical

Dominant-non-dominant asymmetry of kicking a stationary and rolling ball in a futsal context

The aim of this study was to analyse the characteristics of the asymmetries in the dominant and non-dominant limbs when kicking stationary and rolling balls. Ten experienced Brazilian amateur futsal players participated in this study. Each participant performed kicks under two conditions (stationary ball vs. rolling ball) with the dominant and non-dominant limbs (five kicks per condition per limb). We analysed the kicking accuracy, ball and foot velocities, angular joint displacement and velocity. The asymmetry between the dominant and non-dominant limbs was analysed by symmetry index and two-way repeated measures ANOVA. The results did not reveal any interaction between the condition and limb for ball velocity, foot velocity and accuracy. However, kicking with the dominant limb in both kicks showed higher ball velocity (stationary ball: dominant - 24.27 ± 2.21 m · s(-1) and non-dominant - 21.62 ± 2.26 m · s(-1); rolling ball: dominant - 23.88 ± 2.71 m · s(-1) and non-dominant - 21.42 ± 2.25 m · s(-1)), foot velocity (stationary ball: dominant - 17.61 ± 1.87 m · s(-1) and non-dominant - 15.58 ± 2.69 m · s(-1); rolling ball: dominant - 17.25 ± 2.26 m · s(-1) and non-dominant - 14.77 ± 2.35 m · s(-1)) and accuracy (stationary ball: dominant - 1.17 ± 0.84 m and non-dominant - 1.56 ± 1.30 m; rolling ball: dominant - 1.31 ± 0.91 m and non-dominant - 1.97 ± 1.44 m). In addition, the angular joint adjustments were dependent on the limb in both kicks (the kicks with non-dominant limb showed lower hip external rotation than the kicks with the dominant limb), indicating that the hip joint is important in kick performance. In conclusion, the kicks with the non-dominant limb showed different angular adjustments in comparison to kicks with the dominant limb. In addition, kicking a rolling ball with the non-dominant limb showed higher asymmetry for accuracy, indicating that complex kicks are more asymmetric.

Analysis of NDVI time series using cross-correlation and forecasting methods for monitoring sugarcane fields in Brazil

Brazil is the largest sugarcane producer in the world and has a privileged position to attend to national and international market places. To maintain the high production of sugarcane, it is fundamental to improve the forecasting models of crop seasons through the use of alternative technologies, such as remote sensing. Thus, the main purpose of this article is to assess the results of two different statistical forecasting methods applied to an agroclimatic index (the water requirement satisfaction index; WRSI) and the sugarcane spectral response (normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI) registered on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) satellite images. We also evaluated the cross-correlation between these two indexes. According to the results obtained, there are meaningful correlations between NDVI and WRSI with time lags. Additionally, the adjusted model for NDVI presented more accurate results than the forecasting models for WRSI. Finally, the analyses indicate that NDVI is more predictable due to its seasonality and the WRSI values are more variable making it difficult to forecast.

Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.