Scenarios Generation for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets based on Intelligent Data Analysis

This document presents a tool able to automatically gather data provided by real energy markets and to generate scenarios, capture and improve market players’ profiles and strategies by using knowledge discovery processes in databases supported by artificial intelligence techniques, data mining algorithms and machine learning methods. It provides the means for generating scenarios with different dimensions and characteristics, ensuring the representation of real and adapted markets, and their participating entities. The scenarios generator module enhances the MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) simulator, endowing a more effective tool for decision support. The achievements from the implementation of the proposed module enables researchers and electricity markets’ participating entities to analyze data, create real scenarios and make experiments with them. On the other hand, applying knowledge discovery techniques to real data also allows the improvement of MASCEM agents’ profiles and strategies resulting in a better representation of real market players’ behavior. This work aims to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities through adequate multi-agent simulation.

Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Voltage Magnitude Analysis Considering Load Curtailment Minimization in Sub-Transmission Networks with Distributed Generators

Most of distribution generation and smart grid research works are dedicated to the study of network operation parameters, reliability among others. However, many of this research works usually uses traditional test systems such as IEEE test systems. This work proposes a voltage magnitude study in presence of fault conditions considering the realistic specifications found in countries like Brazil. The methodology considers a hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzyprobabilistic models and a remedial action algorithm which is based on optimal power flow. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, the paper includes a case study that considers a real 12 bus sub-transmission network.

Analysis of Consumption Data to Detect Commercial Losses Using Performance Evaluation Methods in a Smart Grid

Electric power networks, namely distribution networks, have been suffering several changes during the last years due to changes in the power systems operation, towards the implementation of smart grids. Several approaches to the operation of the resources have been introduced, as the case of demand response, making use of the new capabilities of the smart grids. In the initial levels of the smart grids implementation reduced amounts of data are generated, namely consumption data. The methodology proposed in the present paper makes use of demand response consumers’ performance evaluation methods to determine the expected consumption for a given consumer. Then, potential commercial losses are identified using monthly historic consumption data. Real consumption data is used in the case study to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.

Voltage Analysis and Load Curtailment Minimization in Sub-transmission Networks with Distributed Generation

Most of distributed generation and smart grid research works are dedicated to network operation parameters studies, reliability, etc. However, many of these works normally uses traditional test systems, for instance, IEEE test systems. This paper proposes voltage magnitude and reliability studies in presence of fault conditions, considering realistic conditions found in countries like Brazil. The methodology considers a hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models and a remedial action algorithm which is based on optimal power flow. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, the paper includes a case study that considers a real 12-bus sub-transmission network.

Real-Time Application Mapping for Many-Cores Using a Limited Migrative Model

Many-core platforms are an emerging technology in the real-time embedded domain. These devices offer various options for power savings, cost reductions and contribute to the overall system flexibility, however, issues such as unpredictability, scalability and analysis pessimism are serious challenges to their integration into the aforementioned area. The focus of this work is on many-core platforms using a limited migrative model (LMM). LMM is an approach based on the fundamental concepts of the multi-kernel paradigm, which is a promising step towards scalable and predictable many-cores. In this work, we formulate the problem of real-time application mapping on a many-core platform using LMM, and propose a three-stage method to solve it. An extended version of the existing analysis is used to assure that derived mappings (i) guarantee the fulfilment of timing constraints posed on worst-case communication delays of individual applications, and (ii) provide an environment to perform load balancing for e.g. energy/thermal management, fault tolerance and/or performance reasons.

A framework for memory contention analysis in multi-core platforms

The last decade has witnessed a major shift towards the deployment of embedded applications on multi-core platforms. However, real-time applications have not been able to fully benefit from this transition, as the computational gains offered by multi-cores are often offset by performance degradation due to shared resources, such as main memory. To efficiently use multi-core platforms for real-time systems, it is hence essential to tightly bound the interference when accessing shared resources. Although there has been much recent work in this area, a remaining key problem is to address the diversity of memory arbiters in the analysis to make it applicable to a wide range of systems. This work handles diverse arbiters by proposing a general framework to compute the maximum interference caused by the shared memory bus and its impact on the execution time of the tasks running on the cores, considering different bus arbiters. Our novel approach clearly demarcates the arbiter-dependent and independent stages in the analysis of these upper bounds. The arbiter-dependent phase takes the arbiter and the task memory-traffic pattern as inputs and produces a model of the availability of the bus to a given task. Then, based on the availability of the bus, the arbiter-independent phase determines the worst-case request-release scenario that maximizes the interference experienced by the tasks due to the contention for the bus. We show that the framework addresses the diversity problem by applying it to a memory bus shared by a fixed-priority arbiter, a time-division multiplexing (TDM) arbiter, and an unspecified work-conserving arbiter using applications from the MediaBench test suite. We also experimentally evaluate the quality of the analysis by comparison with a state-of-the-art TDM analysis approach and consistently showing a considerable reduction in maximum interference.

Mode-Controlled Data-Flow Modeling of Real-Time Memory Controllers

Accepted in 13th IEEE Symposium on Embedded Systems for Real-Time Multimedia (ESTIMedia 2015), Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Response Time Analysis of Slotted WiDOM in Noisy Wireless Channels

International Conference on Emerging Technologies and Factory Automation (ETFA 2015), Industrial Communication Technologies and Systems, Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

Label-free Detection of Microcystin-LR in Waters Using Real-Time Potentiometric Biosensors Based on Single-Walled Carbon Nanotubes Imprinted Polymers

Microcystin-LR (MC-LR) is a dangerous toxin found in environmental waters, quantified by high performance liquid chromatography and/or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Quick, low cost and on-site analysis is thus required to ensure human safety and wide screening programs. This work proposes label-free potentiometric sensors made of solid-contact electrodes coated with a surface imprinted polymer on the surface of Multi-Walled Carbon NanoTubes (CNTs) incorporated in a polyvinyl chloride membrane. The imprinting effect was checked by using non-imprinted materials. The MC-LR sensitive sensors were evaluated, characterized and applied successfully in spiked environmental waters. The presented method offered the advantages of low cost, portability, easy operation and suitability for adaptation to flow methods.

Novel LTCC-potentiometric microfluidic device for biparametric analysis of organic compounds carrying plastic antibodies as ionophores: Application to sulfamethoxazole and trimethoprim

Monitoring organic environmental contaminants is of crucial importance to ensure public health. This requires simple, portable and robust devices to carry out on-site analysis. For this purpose, a low-temperature co-fired ceramics (LTCC) microfluidic potentiometric device (LTCC/μPOT) was developed for the first time for an organic compound: sulfamethoxazole (SMX). Sensory materials relied on newly designed plastic antibodies. Sol–gel, self-assembling monolayer and molecular-imprinting techniques were merged for this purpose. Silica beads were amine-modified and linked to SMX via glutaraldehyde modification. Condensation polymerization was conducted around SMX to fill the vacant spaces. SMX was removed after, leaving behind imprinted sites of complementary shape. The obtained particles were used as ionophores in plasticized PVC membranes. The most suitable membrane composition was selected in steady-state assays. Its suitability to flow analysis was verified in flow-injection studies with regular tubular electrodes. The LTCC/μPOT device integrated a bidimensional mixer, an embedded reference electrode based on Ag/AgCl and an Ag-based contact screen-printed under a micromachined cavity of 600 μm depth. The sensing membranes were deposited over this contact and acted as indicating electrodes. Under optimum conditions, the SMX sensor displayed slopes of about −58.7 mV/decade in a range from 12.7 to 250 μg/mL, providing a detection limit of 3.85 μg/mL and a sampling throughput of 36 samples/h with a reagent consumption of 3.3 mL per sample. The system was adjusted later to multiple analyte detection by including a second potentiometric cell on the LTCC/μPOT device. No additional reference electrode was required. This concept was applied to Trimethoprim (TMP), always administered concomitantly with sulphonamide drugs, and tested in fish-farming waters. The biparametric microanalyzer displayed Nernstian behaviour, with average slopes −54.7 (SMX) and +57.8 (TMP) mV/decade. To demonstrate the microanalyzer capabilities for real applications, it was successfully applied to single and simultaneous determination of SMX and TMP in aquaculture waters.

Methodologies for the WCET Analysis of Parallel Applications on Many-core Architectures

Euromicro Conference on Digital System Design (DSD 2015), Funchal, Portugal.

Analysis of self-interference within DAG tasks

6th Real-Time Scheduling Open Problems Seminar (RTSOPS 2015), Lund, Sweden.

Online Admission of Parallel Real-Time Tasks

6th Real-Time Scheduling Open Problems Seminar (RTSOPS 2015), Lund, Sweden.

Timing Analysis of Fixed Priority SelfSuspending Sporadic Tasks

27th Euromicro Conference on Real-Time Systems (ECRTS 2015), Lund, Sweden.