Competitive equilibrium hyperinflation under rational expectations

This paper shows that a competitive equilibrium model, where a representative agent maximizes welfare, expectations are rational and markets are in equilibrium can account for several hyperinflation stylized facts. The theory is built by combining two hypotheses, namely, a fiscal crisis that requires printing money to finance an increasing public deficit and a predicted change in an unsustainable fiscal regime.

A comment on "Rational learning lead to nash equilibrium" by professors Ehud Kalai and Ehud Lehrer

Kalai and Lebrer (93a, b) have recently show that for the case of infinitely repeated games, a coordination assumption on beliefs and optimal strategies ensures convergence to Nash equilibrium. In this paper, we show that for the case of repeated games with long (but finite) horizon, their condition does not imply approximate Nash equilibrium play. Recently Kalai and Lehrer (93a, b) proved that a coordination assumption on beliefs and optimal strategies, ensures that pIayers of an infinitely repeated game eventually pIay 'E-close" to an E-Nash equilibrium. Their coordination assumption requires that if players believes that certain set of outcomes have positive probability then it must be the case that this set of outcomes have, in fact, positive probability. This coordination assumption is called absolute continuity. For the case of finitely repeated games, the absolute continuity assumption is a quite innocuous assumption that just ensures that pIayers' can revise their priors by Bayes' Law. However, for the case of infinitely repeated games, the absolute continuity assumption is a stronger requirement because it also refers to events that can never be observed in finite time.

Volatility Triggered Range Forward (VTRF): an instrument for protection against volatility fluctuations in the BRL/USD pair

Este trabalho propõe um instrumento capaz de absorver choques no par BRL/USD, garantindo ao seu detentor a possibilidade de realizar a conversão entre essas moedas a uma taxa observada recentemente. O Volatility Triggered Range Forward assemelha-se a um instrumento forward comum, cujo preço de entrega não é conhecido inicialmente, mas definido no momento em que um nível de volatilidade pré-determinado for atingido na cotação das moedas ao longo da vida do instrumento. Seu cronograma de ajustes pode ser definido para um número qualquer de períodos. Seu apreçamento e controle de riscos é baseado em uma árvore trinomial ponderada entre dois possíveis regimes de volatilidade. Esses regimes são determinados após um estudo na série BRL/USD no período entre 2003 e 2009, basedo em um modelo Switching Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (SWARCH).

Decision making naturalized: the interweaving of the unconscious, the emotional and the rational in decisions taken in a contigent world

Dadas as limitações e inadequações presentes, tanto no arquétipo do tomador de decisão como um agente racional, adotado nas teorias econômicas e gerenciais, quanto no estereótipo de um ser transcendental, tão presente na vida prosaica, se faz necessário substituí-los por uma nova perspectiva: onde o tomador de decisão é um animal emocional, frágil diante do acaso, e fruto de um processo evolutivo.

Pair trading in Bovespa with a quantitative approach: cointegration, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck equation and Kelly criterion.

Pair trading is an old and well-known technique among traders. In this paper, we discuss an important element not commonly debated in Brazil: the cointegration between pairs, which would guarantee the spread stability. We run the Dickey-Fuller test to check cointegration, and then compare the results with non-cointegrated pairs. We found that the Sharpe ratio of cointegrated pairs is greater than the non-cointegrated. We also use the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck equation in order to calculate the half-life of the pairs. Again, this improves their performance. Last, we use the leverage suggested by Kelly Formula, once again improving the results.

Rational expectations and the service of public debt: a recursive approach

This paper uses dynamic programming to study the time consistency of optimal macroeconomic policy in economies with recurring public deficits. To this end, a general equilibrium recursive model introduced in Chang (1998) is extended to include govemment bonds and production. The original mode! presents a Sidrauski economy with money and transfers only, implying that the need for govemment fmancing through the inflation tax is minimal. The extended model introduces govemment expenditures and a deficit-financing scheme, analyzing the SargentWallace (1981) problem: recurring deficits may lead the govemment to default on part of its public debt through inflation. The methodology allows for the computation of the set of alI sustainable stabilization plans even when the govemment cannot pre-commit to an optimal inflation path. This is done through value function iterations, which can be done on a computeI. The parameters of the extended model are calibrated with Brazilian data, using as case study three Brazilian stabilization attempts: the Cruzado (1986), Collor (1990) and the Real (1994) plans. The calibration of the parameters of the extended model is straightforward, but its numerical solution proves unfeasible due to a dimensionality problem in the algorithm arising from limitations of available computer technology. However, a numerical solution using the original algorithm and some calibrated parameters is obtained. Results indicate that in the absence of govemment bonds or production only the Real Plan is sustainable in the long run. The numerical solution of the extended algorithm is left for future research.

The Pair-Bond Formation and Its Role in the Stimulation of Reproductive Function in Female Common Marmosets (Callithrix jacchus)

SILVA, H.P.A.; SOUSA, M.B.C. The pair-bond formation and its role in the stimulation of reproductive function in female common marmosets (collithrix Jacchus). International Journal of Primatology, v, 18, n.3, p.387-400, 1997.

H-infinity control design for time-delay linear systems: a rational transfer function based approach

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A Perda Auditiva Induzida pelo Ruído (PAIR) na formação odontológica: conhecimentos e níveis de exposição

The rationalization of work in the Dentistry has been taking the professional to work for ways and systems based in the ergonomics, turning their work efficient and less tiring. Since their academic formation, the dentists surgeons are concerned with the high productivity in clinic and with the final result of the work, neglecting the way as it is executed, which reduce their work capacity and exhibits them to occupational diseases that could be minimized and/or forewarned. This research had as the main objective to investigate the knowledge of the Dentistry academics of Rio Grande do Norte Federal University concerning the Noise-induced Hearing Loss (NIHL), relating them at the noise levels that they are exposed, as well as to the preventive measures taken during the clinical activities. Was observed that 95% of the individuals know that the dentist surgeon is a professional in risk for NIHL. Among the causes of NIHL, the one that obtained the largest frequency citation was the high-speed handpieces, reminded by 92,4% of the academics. Among the students which enumerated protective measures for NIHL, 92% mentioned the use of the ear plugs, although 97% of the researched have told do not use any kind of preventive measure related to the noise. Was also observed that 96% of the academics notice the noise during the clinical attendance, what inconvenience 28,1% of them. Related the noise levels, the high-speed handpieces of the academics presented a medium value of 80,5 dB varying from 72,3 to 88,3 dB. The average of the ambient noise observed at the Integrated Clinic was about 74,8 dB. In spite of the noise levels in this research were observed below the established limits of tolerance by the legislation, they can provoke damages to the Dentistry professionals' health, or that suggests the need of an intervention and use of immediate preventive measures able to generate a healthy atmosphere of work and less risky

Energy education: breaking up the rational energy use barriers

Human development is associated directly or indirectly with the energy use, and because of this the energetic sources were dealt with in the recent past, as fully available to human necessities. The reality shows that the energy availability, considering the nonrenewable sources, is limited, and beyond that, the exploration, the processing and the use of energy impose considerable impacts on the environment. There is not a system which operates with no losses and without imposing changes to the environment. Therefore, the energy conservation incorporates the concepts and the actions applied to the research of sustainable balance between nature and the energy availability and use. Such actions can be presented both in the short term, in which the energy system is close to a collapse, or in the medium/long term, in which those responsible for the energy policies are concerned with the structure of the socioeconomic development. Such a situation requires more responsibility in the treatment of energy questions, mainly through education, which represents long-term investments. This paper discusses barriers that are present in the projects applied to energy conservation, by making clear that education is one of the best ways to transform the human behavior in for the rational use of energy. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative fractography by digital image processing: NIH Image macro tools for stereo pair analysis and 3-D reconstruction

A set of NIH Image macro programs was developed to make qualitative and quantitative analyses from digital stereo pictures produced by scanning electron microscopes. These tools were designed for image alignment, anaglyph representation, animation, reconstruction of true elevation surfaces, reconstruction of elevation profiles, true-scale elevation mapping and, for the quantitative approach, surface area and roughness calculations. Limitations on time processing, scanning techniques and programming concepts are also discussed.