Electoral rules, political competition and fiscal spending: regression discontinuity evidence from brazilian municipalities

We exploit a discontinuity in Brazilian municipal election rules to investigate whether political competition has a causal impact on policy choices. In municipalities with less than 200,000 voters mayors are elected with a plurality of the vote. In municipalities with more than 200,000 voters a run-off election takes place among the top two candidates if neither achieves a majority of the votes. At a first stage, we show that the possibility of runoff increases political competition. At a second stage, we use the discontinuity as a source of exogenous variation to infer causality from political competition to fiscal policy. Our second stage results suggest that political competition induces more investment and less current spending, particularly personnel expenses. Furthermore, the impact of political competition is larger when incumbents can run for reelection, suggesting incentives matter insofar as incumbents can themselves remain in office.

Wald tests for IV regression with weak instruments

This dissertation deals with the problem of making inference when there is weak identification in models of instrumental variables regression. More specifically we are interested in one-sided hypothesis testing for the coefficient of the endogenous variable when the instruments are weak. The focus is on the conditional tests based on likelihood ratio, score and Wald statistics. Theoretical and numerical work shows that the conditional t-test based on the two-stage least square (2SLS) estimator performs well even when instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous variable. The conditional approach correct uniformly its size and when the population F-statistic is as small as two, its power is near the power envelopes for similar and non-similar tests. This finding is surprising considering the bad performance of the two-sided conditional t-tests found in Andrews, Moreira and Stock (2007). Given this counter intuitive result, we propose novel two-sided t-tests which are approximately unbiased and can perform as well as the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test of Moreira (2003).

Improved combinations of parametric and nonparametric Regression estimators

This paper provides a systematic and unified treatment of the developments in the area of kernel estimation in econometrics and statistics. Both the estimation and hypothesis testing issues are discussed for the nonparametric and semiparametric regression models. A discussion on the choice of windowwidth is also presented.

Optimal two-sided tests for instrumental variables regression with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors

This paper considers two-sided tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in an instrumental variable (IV) model with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors. We develop the nite-sample theory of weighted-average power (WAP) tests with normal errors and a known long-run variance. We introduce two weights which are invariant to orthogonal transformations of the instruments; e.g., changing the order in which the instruments appear. While tests using the MM1 weight can be severely biased, optimal tests based on the MM2 weight are naturally two-sided when errors are homoskedastic. We propose two boundary conditions that yield two-sided tests whether errors are homoskedastic or not. The locally unbiased (LU) condition is related to the power around the null hypothesis and is a weaker requirement than unbiasedness. The strongly unbiased (SU) condition is more restrictive than LU, but the associated WAP tests are easier to implement. Several tests are SU in nite samples or asymptotically, including tests robust to weak IV (such as the Anderson-Rubin, score, conditional quasi-likelihood ratio, and I. Andrews' (2015) PI-CLC tests) and two-sided tests which are optimal when the sample size is large and instruments are strong. We refer to the WAP-SU tests based on our weights as MM1-SU and MM2-SU tests. Dropping the restrictive assumptions of normality and known variance, the theory is shown to remain valid at the cost of asymptotic approximations. The MM2-SU test is optimal under the strong IV asymptotics, and outperforms other existing tests under the weak IV asymptotics.

Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression

Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role.

Síndrome de burnout e autoeficácia: um estudo com profissionais de enfermagem de hospitais privados de Natal/rn

This research verifies the influence of the self-efficacy level on burnout syndrome incidence in relation to nursing professionals from private hospitals located in the Municipality of Natal, State of Rio Grande do Norte. The nature of the research was descriptive, and the used data analysis method was quantitative which was developed through SPSS computational package, version 17.0. The used instrument for the investigation was Maslach-Burnout Inventory (MBI), and the General Perceived Self-efficacy Scale (GPSES) was applied to a sample formed from 230 nursing professionals. The statistic techniques to data analysis were: frequency analysis; factor analysis; Cronbach.s alpha; Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test (KMO); Bartlett efericity test; percentual analysis; Spearman rank correlation analysis; and simple regression. The achieved factors from factor analysis of MBI were the same, taking into account the dimensions which Maslach initially suggested to the instrument (emotional exhaustion, lack of personal realization, and depersonalization). However, one highlights that the low internal consistence of the depersonalization dimension can occur from people.s difficulty (caused by cultural aspects) of assuming this attitude in their work environment. Through GSE, it was achieved a factor which confirmed the unidimensionality showed by the author of the instrument. In relation to the syndrome incidence, it was verified that about 50% of the researched sample presented burnout syndrome evidence. Referring to self-efficacy level, about 65% of the researched sample presented low level of self-efficacy, what can be explained by the work characteristics of these professionals. In relation to the self-efficacy influence on the Burnout syndrome, it was verified that self-efficacy can be one of the aspects which influences occupational stress chronification (burnout), mainly to the personal realization dimension. Therefore, the researched hospital organizations need reflect about their attitudes in respect to their professionals, since the numbers showed a dangerous tendency regarding a predisposition to burnout syndrome of their staff, what implies not only a significant amount of individuals who can present high levels of emotional exhaustion, lack of personal realization, and depersonalization, but also the fact that this group presents low level of self-efficacy

Câncer de boca e orofaringe: tendências e análise de sobrevida em Natal (RN)

Introduction: Mouth cancer is classified as having one of the ten highest cancer incidences in the world. In Brazil, the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer are among the highest in the world. Intraoral cancer (tongue, gum, floor of the mouth, and other non-specified parts of the mouth), the accumulated survival rate after five years is less than 50%. Objectives: Estimate the accumulated survival probability after five years and adjust the Cox regression model for mouth and oropharyngeal cancers, according to age range, sex, morphology, and location, for the city of Natal. Describe the mortality and incidence coefficients of oral and oropharyngeal cancer and their tendencies in the city of Natal, between 1980 and 2001 and between 1997 and 2001, respectively. Methods: Survival data of patients registered between 1997 and 2001 was obtained from the Population-based Cancer Record of Natal. Differences between the survival curves were tested using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional risk model was used to estimate risk ratios. The simple linear regression model was used for tendency analyses of the mortality and incidence coefficients. Results: The probability after five years was 22.9%. The patients with undifferentiated malignant neoplasia were 4.7 times more at risk of dying than those with epidermoid carcinoma, whereas the patients with oropharyngeal cancer had 2.0 times more at risk of dying than those with mouth cancer. The mouth cancer mortality and incidence coefficients for Natal were 4.3 and 2.9 per 100 000 inhabitants, respectively. The oropharyngeal cancer mortality and incidence coefficients were, respectively, 1.1 and 0.7 per 100 000 87 inhabitants. Conclusions: A low survival rate after five years was identified. Patients with oropharyngeal cancer had a greater risk of dying, independent of the factors considered in this study. Also independent of other factors, undifferentiated malignant neoplasia posed a greater risk of death. The magnitudes of the incidence coefficients found are not considered elevated, whereas the magnitudes of the mortality coefficients are high

Estimation of genetic parameters for partial egg production periods by means of random regression models

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Correlação entre medidas paramétricas e não-paramétricas de estabilidade em soja

Foram avaliadas a adaptabilidade e a estabilidade de genótipos de soja (Glycine max L.) segundo a metodologia clássica de Eberhart e Russell e a estabilidade dos mesmos genótipos pela metodologia não-paramétrica de Huhn. Os experimentos foram conduzidos no delineamento em blocos casualizados, com três repetições e com 30 tratamentos (genótipos de soja), durante três anos consecutivos. As parcelas experimentais foram constituídas por quatro linhas de cultivo, espaçadas de 0,50 m e com densidade de 25 plantas por metro linear. Como área útil, foram tomadas as linhas centrais, eliminando-se 0,5 m de cada extremidade. A comparação entre as metodologias foi efetuada considerando-se o caráter produção de grãos. Verificou-se correlação de posição significativa dos postos dos genótipos, entre o desvio da regressão e as duas medidas não-paramétricas de estabilidade, porém o mesmo não foi observado entre o coeficiente de regressão e as medidas não-paramétricas (Si(1) e Si(2)). As medidas Si(1) e Si(2) mostraram-se quase que perfeitamente correlacionadas.

Short communication: Principal components and factor analytic models for test-day milk yield in Brazilian Holstein cattle

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Predição de valores genéticos para a produção de leite no dia do controle e para a produção acumulada até 305 dias

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estimativas de parâmetros genéticos para produção de leite e persistência da lactação em vacas Gir, aplicando modelos de regressão aleatória

Com o objetivo de estimar parâmetros genéticos para a produção de leite no dia do controle (PLDC), foram usadas as 2.440 primeiras lactações de vacas da raça Gir leiteira, com partos registrados entre 1990 e 2005. As PLDC foram consideradas em dez classes mensais e analisadas por meio de modelo de regressão aleatória (MRA) utilizando-se como efeitos aleatórios o genético-aditivo, o de ambiente permanente e o residual e, como efeitos fixos, o grupo de contemporâneos (GC), a co-variável idade da vaca ao parto (efeito linear e quadrático) e a curva média de lactação da população. Os efeitos genético-aditivos e de ambiente permanente foram modelados utilizando-se as funções de Wilmink (WIL) e Ali e Schaeffer (AS). As variâncias residuais foram modeladas utilizando-se 1, 4, 6 ou 10 classes. Os grupos de contemporâneos foram definidos como rebanho-ano-estação do controle contendo no mínimo três animais. Os testes indicaram que o modelo com quatro classes de variâncias usando a função paramétrica AS foi o que melhor se ajustou aos dados. As estimativas de herdabilidade variaram de 0,21 a 0,33 para a função AS e de 0,17 a 0,30 para WIL e foram maiores na primeira metade da lactação. As correlações genéticas entre as PLDC foram positivas e elevadas entre os controles adjacentes e diminuiram quando a distância entre os controles aumentou. Para o melhor modelo, foram estimados os valores genéticos para a produção de leite acumulada até os 305 dias e, para períodos parciais da lactação, foram obtidas como médias dos valores genéticos preditos naquele período. Os valores genéticos foram comparados, por meio da correlação de posto, ao valor genético predito para a produção acumulada até os 305 dias, pelo método tradicional. As correlações entre os valores genéticos indicaram que podem ocorrer divergências na classificação dos animais pelos critérios estudados.