Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Every normal logic program has a 2-valued semantics: theory, extensions, applications, implementations

Trabalho apresentado no âmbito do Doutoramento em Informática, como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Informática

Health care marketing: the theory of planned behavior applied to patients' choise between private and public providers in the portuguese health care system.

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for degree of Master in Statistics and Information Management.

Defining health law or the edgewood syndrome

ABSTRACT - The authors’ main purpose is to present ideas on defining Health Law by highlighting the particularities of the field of Health Law as well as of the teaching of this legal branch, hoping to contribute to the maturity and academic recognition of Health Law, not only as a very rich legal field but also as a powerful social instrument in the fulfillment of fundamental human rights. The authors defend that Health Law has several characteristics that distinguish it from traditional branches of law such as its complexity and multidisciplinary nature. The study of Health Law normally covers issues such as access to care, health systems organization, patients’ rights, health professionals’ rights and duties, strict liability, healthcare contracts between institutions and professionals, medical data protection and confidentiality, informed consent and professional secrecy, crossing different legal fields including administrative, antitrust, constitutional, contract, corporate, criminal, environmental, food and drug, intellectual property, insurance, international and supranational, labor/employment, property, taxation, and tort law. This is one of the reasons why teaching Health Law presents a challenge to the teacher, which will have to find the programs, content and methods appropriate to the profile of recipients which are normally non jurists and the needs of a multidisciplinary curricula. By describing academic definitions of Health Law as analogous to Edgewood, a fiction house which has a different architectural style in each of its walls, the authors try to describe which elements should compose a more comprehensive definition. In this article Biolaw, Bioethics and Human Rights are defined as complements to a definition of Health Law: Biolaw because it is the legal field that treats the social consequences that arise from technological advances in health and life sciences; Bioethics which evolutions normally influence the shape of the legal framework of Health; and, finally Human Rights theory and declarations are outlined as having always been historically linked to medicine and health, being the umbrella that must cover all the issues raised in the area of Health Law. To complete this brief incursion on the definition on Health Law the authors end by giving note of the complex relations between this field of Law and Public Health. Dealing more specifically on laws adopted by governments to provide important health services and regulate industries and individual conduct that affect the health of the populations, this aspect of Health Law requires special attention to avoid an imbalance between public powers and individual freedoms. The authors conclude that public trust in any health system is essentially sustained by developing health structures which are consistent with essential fundamental rights, such as the universal right to access health care, and that the study of Health Law can contribute with important insights into both health structures and fundamental rights in order to foster a health system that respects the Rule of Law.-------------------------- RESUMO – O objectivo principal dos autores é apresentar ideias sobre a definição de Direito da Saúde, destacando as particularidades desta área do direito, bem como do ensino deste ramo jurídico, na esperança de contribuir para a maturidade e para o reconhecimento académico do mesmo, não só como um campo juridicamente muito rico, mas, também, como um poderoso instrumento social no cumprimento dos direitos humanos fundamentais. Os autores defendem que o Direito da Saúde tem diversas características que o distinguem dos ramos tradicionais do direito, como a sua complexidade e natureza multidisciplinar. O estudo do Direito da Saúde abrangendo normalmente questões como o acesso aos cuidados, a organização dos sistemas de saúde, os direitos e deveres dos doentes e dos profissionais de saúde, a responsabilidade civil, os contratos entre instituições de saúde e profissionais, a protecção e a confidencialidade de dados clínicos, o consentimento informado e o sigilo profissional, implica uma abordagem transversal de diferentes áreas legais, incluindo os Direitos contratual, administrativo, antitrust, constitucional, empresarial, penal, ambiental, alimentar, farmacêutico, da propriedade intelectual, dos seguros, internacional e supranacional, trabalho, fiscal e penal. Esta é uma das razões pelas quais o ensino do Direito da Saúde representa um desafio para o professor, que terá de encontrar os programas, conteúdos e métodos adequados ao perfil dos destinatários, que são normalmente não juristas e às necessidades de um currículo multidisciplinar. Ao descrever as várias definições académicas de Direito da Saúde como análogas a Edgewood, uma casa de ficção que apresenta um estilo arquitectónico diferente em cada uma de suas paredes, os autores tentam encontrar os elementos que deveriam compor uma definição mais abrangente. No artigo, Biodireito, Bioética e Direitos Humanos são descritos como complementos de uma definição de Direito da Saúde: o Biodireito, dado que é o campo jurídico que trata as consequências sociais que surgem dos avanços tecnológicos na área da saúde e das ciências da vida; a Bioética cujas evoluções influenciam normalmente o quadro jurídico da Saúde; e, por fim, a teoria dos Direitos Humanos e as suas declarações as quais têm estado sempre historicamente ligadas à medicina e à saúde, devendo funcionar como pano de fundo de todas as questões levantadas na área do Direito da Saúde. Para finalizar a sua breve incursão sobre a definição de Direito da Saúde, os autores dão ainda nota das complexas relações entre este último e a Saúde Pública, onde se tratam mais especificamente as leis aprovadas pelos governos para regular os serviços de saúde, as indústrias e as condutas individuais que afectam a saúde das populações, aspecto do Direito da Saúde que requer uma atenção especial para evitar um desequilíbrio entre os poderes públicos e as liberdades individuais. Os autores concluem afirmando que a confiança do público em qualquer sistema de saúde é, essencialmente, sustentada pelo desenvolvimento de estruturas de saúde que sejam consistentes com o direito constitucional da saúde, tais como o direito universal ao acesso a cuidados de saúde, e que o estudo do Direito da Saúde pode contribuir com elementos

Depositions of rulers in the later middle ages: on the theory of th "useless ruler" and its practical utilization

pp. 157-168

“The past is a foreign country”? Acculturation theory and the anthropology of globalization

Etnográfica, 15 (2): 313-336

Coalition of distributed generation units to Virtual Power Players - a game theory approach

Smart Grids (SGs) have emerged as the new paradigm for power system operation and management, being designed to include large amounts of distributed energy resources. This new paradigm requires new Energy Resource Management (ERM) methodologies considering different operation strategies and the existence of new management players such as several types of aggregators. This paper proposes a methodology to facilitate the coalition between distributed generation units originating Virtual Power Players (VPP) considering a game theory approach. The proposed approach consists in the analysis of the classifications that were attributed by each VPP to the distributed generation units, as well as in the analysis of the previous established contracts by each player. The proposed classification model is based in fourteen parameters including technical, economical and behavioural ones. Depending of the VPP strategies, size and goals, each parameter has different importance. VPP can also manage other type of energy resources, like storage units, electric vehicles, demand response programs or even parts of the MV and LV distribution network. A case study with twelve VPPs with different characteristics and one hundred and fifty real distributed generation units is included in the paper.

Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations), a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

Crowdsourcing innovation intermediaries functions

Open innovation is a hot topic in innovation management. Its basic premise is open up the innovation process. The innovation process, in general sense, may be seen as the process of designing, developing and commercializing a novel product or service to improve the value added of a company. The development of Web 2.0 tools facilitates this kind of contributions, opening space to the emergence of crowdsourcing innovation initiatives. Crowdsourcing is a form of outsourcing not directed to other companies but to the crowd by means of an open call mostly through an Internet platform. Innovation intermediaries, in general sense, are organizations that work to enable innovation, that just act as brokers or agents between two or more parties. Usually, they are also engaged in other activities like inter-organizational networking and technology development and related activities. A crowdsourcing innovation intermediary is an organization that mediates the communication and relationship between the seekers – companies that aspire to solve some problem or to take advantage of any business opportunity – with a crowd that is prone to give ideas based on their knowledge, experience and wisdom. This paper identifies and analyses the functions to be performed by an intermediary of crowdsourcing innovation through grounded theory analyses from literature. The resulting model is presented and explained. The resulting model summarizes eight main functions that can be performed by a crowdsourcing process, namely, diagnoses, mediation, linking knowledge, community, evaluation, project management, intellectual property governance and marketing and support. These functions are associated with a learning cycle process which covers all the crowdsourcing activities that can be realized by the broker.

Fiscal decentralisation and economic theory

There is no complete overview or discussion of the literature of the economics of federalism and fiscal decentralization, even though scholarly interest in the topic has been increasing significantly over recent years. This paper provides a general, brief but comprehensive overview of the main insights from the literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization. In doing so, literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization is grouped into two main approaches: “first generation of theories” and “second generation of theories”.

Understanding the internet banking adoption by Portuguese customers - a unified theory of acceptance and use of technology and perceived risk application.

Trabalho de Projeto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

The value relevance of investment property fair value

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Men’s purchase intention of shampoo: a model based on the theory of planned behavior and self-concept

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Three essays on game theory and bargaining

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Spiteful Strategies. The ontogeny and the practice of spite in human interaction: an experimental game theory approach and empirical applications

As estratégias de malevolência implicam que um indivíduo pague um custo para infligir um custo superior a um oponente. Como um dos comportamentos fundamentais da sociobiologia, a malevolência tem recebido menos atenção que os seus pares o egoísmo e a cooperação. Contudo, foi estabelecido que a malevolência é uma estratégia viável em populações pequenas quando usada contra indivíduos negativamente geneticamente relacionados pois este comportamento pode i) ser eliminado naturalmente, ou ii) manter-se em equilíbrio com estratégias cooperativas devido à disponibilidade da parte de indivíduos malevolentes de pagar um custo para punir. Esta tese propõe compreender se a propensão para a malevolência nos humanos é inerente ou se esta se desenvolve com a idade. Para esse efeito, considerei duas experiências de teoria de jogos em crianças em ambiente escolar com idades entre os 6 e os 22 anos. A primeira, um jogo 2x2 foi testada com duas variantes: 1) um prémio foi atribuído a ambos os jogadores, proporcionalmente aos pontos acumulados; 2), um prémio foi atribuído ao jogador com mais pontos. O jogo foi desenhado com o intuito de causar o seguinte dilema a cada jogador: i) maximizar o seu ganho e arriscar ter menos pontos que o adversário; ou ii) decidir não maximizar o seu ganho, garantindo que este não era inferior ao do seu adversário. A segunda experiência consistia num jogo do ditador com duas opções: uma escolha egoísta/altruísta (A), onde o ditador recebia mais ganho, mas o seu recipiente recebia mais que ele e uma escolha malevolente (B) que oferecia menos ganhos ao ditador que a A mas mais ganhos que o recipiente. O dilema era que se as crianças se comportassem de maneira egoísta, obtinham mais ganho para si, ao mesmo tempo que aumentavam o ganho do seu colega. Se fossem malevolentes, então prefeririam ter mais ganho que o seu colega ao mesmo tempo que tinham menos para eles próprios. As experiências foram efetuadas em escolas de duas áreas distintas de Portugal (continente e Açores) para perceber se as preferências malevolentes aumentavam ou diminuíam com a idade. Os resultados na primeira experiência sugerem que (1) os alunos compreenderam a primeira variante como um jogo de coordenação e comportaram-se como maximizadores, copiando as jogadas anteriores dos seus adversários; (2) que os alunos repetentes se comportaram preferencialmente como malevolentes, mais frequentemente que como maximizadores, com especial ênfase para os alunos de 14 anos; (3) maioria dos alunos comportou-se reciprocamente desde os 12 até aos 16 anos de idade, após os quais começaram a desenvolver uma maior tolerância às escolhas dos seus parceiros. Os resultados da segunda experiência sugerem que (1) as estratégias egoístas eram prevalentes até aos 6 anos de idade, (2) as tendências altruístas emergiram até aos 8 anos de idade e (3) as estratégias de malevolência começaram a emergir a partir dos 8 anos de idade. Estes resultados complementam a literatura relativamente escassa sobre malevolência e sugerem que este comportamento está intimamente ligado a preferências de consideração sobre os outros, o paroquialismo e os estágios de desenvolvimento das crianças.************************************************************Spite is defined as an act that causes loss of payoff to an opponent at a cost to the actor. As one of the four fundamental behaviours in sociobiology, it has received far less attention than its counterparts selfishness and cooperation. It has however been established as a viable strategy in small populations when used against negatively related individuals. Because of this, spite can either i) disappear or ii) remain at equilibrium with cooperative strategies due to the willingness of spiteful individuals to pay a cost in order to punish. This thesis sets out to understand whether propensity for spiteful behaviour is inherent or if it develops with age. For that effect, two game-theoretical experiments were performed with schoolboys and schoolgirls aged 6 to 22. The first, a 2 x 2 game, was tested in two variants: 1) a prize was awarded to both players, proportional to accumulated points; 2), a prize was given to the player with most points. Each player faced the following dilemma: i) to maximise pay-off risking a lower pay-off than the opponent; or ii) not to maximise pay-off in order to cut down the opponent below their own. The second game was a dictator experiment with two choices, (A) a selfish/altruistic choice affording more payoff to the donor than B, but more to the recipient than to the donor, and (B) a spiteful choice that afforded less payoff to the donor than A, but even lower payoff to the recipient. The dilemma here was that if subjects behaved selfishly, they obtained more payoff for themselves, while at the same time increasing their opponent payoff. If they were spiteful, they would rather have more payoff than their colleague, at the cost of less for themselves. Experiments were run in schools in two different areas in Portugal (mainland and Azores) to understand whether spiteful preferences varied with age. Results in the first experiment suggested that (1) students understood the first variant as a coordination game and engaged in maximising behaviour by copying their opponent’s plays; (2) repeating students preferentially engaged in spiteful behaviour more often than maximising behaviour, with special emphasis on 14 year-olds; (3) most students engaged in reciprocal behaviour from ages 12 to 16, as they began developing higher tolerance for their opponent choices. Results for the second experiment suggested that (1) selfish strategies were prevalent until the age of 6, (2) altruistic tendencies emerged since then, and (3) spiteful strategies began being chosen more often by 8 year-olds. These results add to the relatively scarce body of literature on spite and suggest that this type of behaviour is closely tied with other-regarding preferences, parochialism and the children’s stages of development.