894 resultados para probability of error
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This study examines trends and geographical differences in total and live birth prevalence of trisomies 21, 18 and 13 with regard to increasing maternal age and prenatal diagnosis in Europe. Twenty-one population-based EUROCAT registries covering 6.1 million births between 1990 and 2009 participated. Trisomy cases included live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestational age and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. We present correction to 20 weeks gestational age (ie, correcting early terminations for the probability of fetal survival to 20 weeks) to allow for artefactual screening-related differences in total prevalence. Poisson regression was used. The proportion of births in the population to mothers aged 35+ years in the participating registries increased from 13% in 1990 to 19% in 2009. Total prevalence per 10 000 births was 22.0 (95% CI 21.7-22.4) for trisomy 21, 5.0 (95% CI 4.8-5.1) for trisomy 18 and 2.0 (95% CI 1.9-2.2) for trisomy 13; live birth prevalence was 11.2 (95% CI 10.9-11.5) for trisomy 21, 1.04 (95% CI 0.96-1.12) for trisomy 18 and 0.48 (95% CI 0.43-0.54) for trisomy 13. There was an increase in total and total corrected prevalence of all three trisomies over time, mainly explained by increasing maternal age. Live birth prevalence remained stable over time. For trisomy 21, there was a three-fold variation in live birth prevalence between countries. The rise in maternal age has led to an increase in the number of trisomy-affected pregnancies in Europe. Live birth prevalence has remained stable overall. Differences in prenatal screening and termination between countries lead to wide variation in live birth prevalence.
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The neuropsychological records of 56 patients operated for clipping were studied. Almost every patient remained autonomous and without invalidating motor defect. The present study was aimed at specifying the type and frequency of neuropsychological sequelae and, to a lesser extent, the role of various pathophysiological factors. A main concern was to examine to what extent and at what post-operative interval the neuropsychological assessment can predict the intellectual and socioprofessional outcome of each individual patient. The neuropsychological assessment performed beyond the acute phase showed evidence of intellectual sequelae in about two thirds of the patients. Only one case of permanent anterograde amnesia was observed, probably due to unavoidable inclusion of a hypothalamic artery in the clip during surgery. Transient anterograde amnesia and confabulations were occasionally observed, generally for less than three weeks. A common finding was impaired performance on memory and/or executive tests. In a minority of patients, language disorders, visuoperceptive and visuoconstructive disabilities were found, probably in relation with hemodynamic changes at distance from the aneurysm. Global impairment of intellectual function was not uncommon in the acute post-operative phase but it evolved in most cases towards a more selective impairment, for instance restricted to executive and memory functions, in the chronic phase. The neuropsychological investigation carried out 4 to 15 weeks post-operatively provided satisfactory information about possible long-lasting intellectual disturbances and professional resumption. In particular, persistent global intellectual impairment, persistent amnesia and confabulations 4-15 weeks post-operative were associated with cessation of professional activity; executive and memory impairment, behavioral disturbances such as those encountered in patients with frontal lobe damage were associated with a decreased probability of full-time employment. Pre- and post-operative angiography were not good predictors of long-term cognitive outcome: normal angiography was not necessarily followed by normal neuropsychological outcome, conversely abnormal angiography could be found together with normal neuropsychological outcome. By contrast, there was a relationship between left-lateralised abnormalities on post-operative angiography and occurrence of language disorders; similarly, there was a relationship between side of craniotomy and type of deficits, that is language disorders versus visuoperceptive-visuoconstructive impairments.
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An increase of urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA) and a decrease of tissue-type PA (tPA) have been associated with the transition from normal to adenomatous colorectal mucosa. Serial sections from 25 adenomas were used to identify PA-related caseinolytic activities by in situ zymography, blocking selectively uPA or tPA. The distribution of uPA, tPA, and type 1 PA inhibitor mRNAs was investigated by nonradioactive in situ hybridization, and the receptor for uPA was detected by immunostaining. Low- and high-grade epithelial cell dysplasia was mapped histologically. Results show that 23 of 25 adenomas expressed uPA-related lytic activity located predominantly in the periphery whereas tPA-related activity was mainly in central areas of adenomas. In 15 of 25 adenomas, uPA mRNA was expressed in stromal cells clustered in foci that coincided with areas of uPA lytic activity. The probability of finding uPA mRNA-reactive cells was significantly higher in areas with high-grade epithelial dysplasia. uPA receptor was mainly stromal and expressed at the periphery. Type 1 PA inhibitor mRNA cellular expression was diffuse in the stroma, in endothelial cells, and in a subpopulation of alpha-smooth muscle cell actin-reactive cells. These results show that a stromal up-regulation of the uPA/plasmin system is associated with foci of severe dysplasia in a subset of colorectal adenomas.
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The identification of genetically homogeneous groups of individuals is a long standing issue in population genetics. A recent Bayesian algorithm implemented in the software STRUCTURE allows the identification of such groups. However, the ability of this algorithm to detect the true number of clusters (K) in a sample of individuals when patterns of dispersal among populations are not homogeneous has not been tested. The goal of this study is to carry out such tests, using various dispersal scenarios from data generated with an individual-based model. We found that in most cases the estimated 'log probability of data' does not provide a correct estimation of the number of clusters, K. However, using an ad hoc statistic DeltaK based on the rate of change in the log probability of data between successive K values, we found that STRUCTURE accurately detects the uppermost hierarchical level of structure for the scenarios we tested. As might be expected, the results are sensitive to the type of genetic marker used (AFLP vs. microsatellite), the number of loci scored, the number of populations sampled, and the number of individuals typed in each sample.
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The male-to-female sex ratio at birth is constant across world populations with an average of 1.06 (106 male to 100 female live births) for populations of European descent. The sex ratio is considered to be affected by numerous biological and environmental factors and to have a heritable component. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of common allele modest effects at autosomal and chromosome X variants that could explain the observed sex ratio at birth. We conducted a large-scale genome-wide association scan (GWAS) meta-analysis across 51 studies, comprising overall 114 863 individuals (61 094 women and 53 769 men) of European ancestry and 2 623 828 common (minor allele frequency >0.05) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Allele frequencies were compared between men and women for directly-typed and imputed variants within each study. Forward-time simulations for unlinked, neutral, autosomal, common loci were performed under the demographic model for European populations with a fixed sex ratio and a random mating scheme to assess the probability of detecting significant allele frequency differences. We do not detect any genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10(-8)) common SNP differences between men and women in this well-powered meta-analysis. The simulated data provided results entirely consistent with these findings. This large-scale investigation across ~115 000 individuals shows no detectable contribution from common genetic variants to the observed skew in the sex ratio. The absence of sex-specific differences is useful in guiding genetic association study design, for example when using mixed controls for sex-biased traits.
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The treatment of some cancer patients has shifted from traditional, non-specific cytotoxic chemotherapy to chronic treatment with molecular targeted therapies. Imatinib mesylate, a selective inhibitor of tyrosine kinases (TKIs) is the most prominent example of this new era and has opened the way to the development of several additional TKIs, including sunitinib, nilotinib, dasatinib, sorafenib and lapatinib, in the treatment of various hematological malignancies and solid tumors. All these agents are characterized by an important inter-individual pharmacokinetic variability, are at risk for drug interactions, and are not devoid of toxicity. Additionally, they are administered for prolonged periods, anticipating the careful monitoring of their plasma exposure via Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM) to be an important component of patients' follow-up. We have developed a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method (LC-MS/MS) requiring 100 microL of plasma for the simultaneous determination of the six major TKIs currently in use. Plasma is purified by protein precipitation and the supernatant is diluted in ammonium formate 20 mM (pH 4.0) 1:2. Reverse-phase chromatographic separation of TKIs is obtained using a gradient elution of 20 mM ammonium formate pH 2.2 and acetonitrile containing 1% formic acid, followed by rinsing and re-equilibration to the initial solvent composition up to 20 min. Analyte quantification, using matrix-matched calibration samples, is performed by electro-spray ionization-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry by selected reaction monitoring detection using the positive mode. The method was validated according to FDA recommendations, including assessment of extraction yield, matrix effects variability (<9.6%), overall process efficiency (87.1-104.2%), as well as TKIs short- and long-term stability in plasma. The method is precise (inter-day CV%: 1.3-9.4%), accurate (-9.2 to +9.9%) and sensitive (lower limits of quantification comprised between 1 and 10 ng/mL). This is the first broad-range LC-MS/MS assay covering the major currently in-use TKIs. It is an improvement over previous methods in terms of convenience (a single extraction procedure for six major TKIs, reducing significantly the analytical time), sensitivity, selectivity and throughput. It may contribute to filling the current knowledge gaps in the pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics relationships of the latest TKIs developed after imatinib and better define their therapeutic ranges in different patient populations in order to evaluate whether a systematic TDM-guided dose adjustment of these anticancer drugs could contribute to minimize the risk of major adverse reactions and to increase the probability of efficient, long lasting, therapeutic response.
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Copper-67 has comparable beta-particle emissions to that of 131I, but it displays more favorable gamma emission characteristics for application in radioimmunotherapy (RIT). This study investigates the potential of 67Cu-labeled monoclonal antibody (MAb) 35 for RIT of colorectal carcinoma. METHODS: Biokinetics of simultaneously injected 67Cu- and 125I-labeled MAb35 were studied in six patients scheduled for surgery of primary colorectal cancer. RESULTS: Whole-body clearance (T 1/2) of 67Cu, estimated from sequential anterior and posterior whole-body scans and corrected for decay of 67Cu, was 41 hr. Serum clearance of 67Cu was faster (27.41 hr) than that of 125I (38.33 hr). Mean tumor uptake of the 67Cu-labeled compound (0.0133% ID/g) exceeded that of 125I (0.0095% ID/g), and tumor-to-blood ratios were higher for 67Cu than for 125I, with averages of 6.07 and 2.41, respectively. The average 67Cu/125I ratio was 1.9 for tumor uptake, 0.7 for blood and 2.6 for tumor-to-blood ratios. Nonspecific liver uptake of 67Cu as calculated from whole-body scans was high in four patients, up to 25% of residual whole-body activity at 48 hr, but did not increase with time. We also observed some nonspecific bowel activity, as well as moderate to high uptake in benign polyps. CONCLUSION: Copper-67-labeled MAb35 is more favorable than its radioiodine-labeled counterpart for RIT of colorectal carcinoma due to higher tumor-to-blood ratios, but the problem of nonspecific liver and bowel uptake must first be overcome. The absolute accumulation of activity in tumor remains low, however, so the probability of cure with this compound alone is questionable. The use of 67Cu as one component of a multimodality adjuvant treatment seems to remain the most appropriate application for RIT.
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Antimalarial drugs including the antifolate, pyrimethamine-sulfadoxine (PS), can modulate the prevalence and intensities of gametocytaemia following treatment of acute malaria infections. They may also directly influence the transmission and spread of drug insensitivity. Little is known of the effects of co-trimoxazole (Co-T), another antifolate antimalarial, on gametocytes in children with acute malaria infections. We compared the effects of Co-T and PS on the prevalence and intensities of gametocytaemia and gametocyte sex ratios in 102 children aged 0.5-12 years presenting with acute and uncomplicated falciparum malaria. Compared to pre-treatment, both drugs significantly increased gametocyte carriage post-initiation of treatment. However, gametocyte carriage was significantly lower on day 14 in those treated with Co-T than PS. Significant increase in gametocytaemia with time occurred in PS - but not Co-T-treated children. Kaplan-Meier survival curve of the cumulative probability of remaining gametocyte-free in children who were agametocytaemic at enrolment showed that by day 7 of follow up, children treated with PS had a significantly higher propensity to have developed gametocytes than in Co-T-treated children (Log-rank statistic 5.35, df = 1, P = 0.02). Gametocyte sex ratio changes were similar following treatment with both drugs. PS and Co-T treatment of acute malaria infections in children from this endemic area is associated with significant increases in prevalence and intensities of gametocytaemia but these effects are more marked in those treated with PS than Co-T.
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The reproductive assurance hypothesis emphasizes that self-fertilization should evolve in species with reduced dispersal capability, low population size or experiencing recurrent bottlenecks. Our work investigates the ecological components of the habitats colonized by the snail, Galba truncatula, that may influence the evolution of selfing. Galba truncatula is a preferential selfer inhabiting freshwater habitats, which vary with respect to the degree of permanence. We considered with a population genetic approach the spatial and the temporal degree of isolation of populations of G. truncatula. We showed that patches at distances of only a few meters are highly structured. The effective population sizes appear quite low, in the order of 10 individuals or less. This study indicates that individuals of the species G. truncatula are likely to be alone in a site and have a low probability of finding a partner from a nearby site to reproduce. These results emphasize the advantage of selfing in this species.
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We found that lumbar spine texture analysis using trabecular bone score (TBS) is a risk factor for MOF and a risk factor for death in a retrospective cohort study from a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada. INTRODUCTION: FRAX® estimates the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) using clinical risk factors and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS), derived from texture in the spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image, is related to bone microarchitecture and fracture risk independently of BMD. Our objective was to determine whether TBS provides information on MOF probability beyond that provided by the FRAX variables. METHODS: We included 33,352 women aged 40-100 years (mean 63 years) with baseline DXA measurements of lumbar spine TBS and femoral neck BMD. The association between TBS, the FRAX variables, and the risk of MOF or death was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model. RESULTS: During the mean of 4.7 years, 1,754 women died and 1,872 sustained one or more MOF. For each standard deviation reduction in TBS, there was a 36 % increase in MOF risk (HR 1.36, 95 % CI 1.30-1.42, p < 0.001) and a 32 % increase in death (HR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.26-1.39, p < 0.001). When adjusted for significant clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD, lumbar spine TBS was still a significant predictor of MOF (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.23) and death (HR 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26). Models for estimating MOF probability, accounting for competing mortality, showed that low TBS (10th percentile) increased risk by 1.5-1.6-fold compared with high TBS (90th percentile) across a broad range of ages and femoral neck T-scores. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine TBS is able to predict incident MOF independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD even after accounting for the increased death hazard.
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To study the postulated mutant p53 (mutp53) "gain of function" effects in mammary tumor development, progression and metastasis, we crossed SV40 transgenic WAP-T mice with mutant p53 transgenic WAP-mutp53 mice. Compared to tumors in monotransgenic WAP-T mice, tumors in bitransgenic WAP-T x WAP-mutp53 mice showed higher tumor grading, enhanced vascularization, and significantly increased metastasis. Bitransgenic tumors revealed a gene signature associated with the oncogenic epithelial-mesenchymal transition pathway (EMT gene signature). In cultures of WAP-T tumor-derived G-2 cancer cells, which are comprised of subpopulations displaying "mesenchymal" and "epithelial" phenotypes, this EMT gene signature was associated with the "mesenchymal" compartment. Furthermore, ectopic expression of mutp53 in G-2 cells sufficed to induce a strong EMT phenotype. In contrast to these in vitro effects, monotransgenic and bitransgenic tumors were phenotypically similar suggesting that in vivo the tumor cell phenotype might be under control of the tumor microenvironment. In support, orthotopic transplantation of G-2 cells as well as of G-2 cells expressing ectopic mutp53 into syngeneic mice resulted in tumors with a predominantly epithelial phenotype, closely similar to that of endogenous primary tumors. We conclude that induction of an EMT gene signature by mutp53 in bitransgenic tumors primarily promotes tumor cell plasticity, that is, the probability of tumor cells to undergo EMT processes under appropriate stimuli, thereby possibly increasing their potential to disseminate and metastasize.
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Different urban structures might affect the life history parameters of Aedes aegypti and, consequently, dengue transmission. Container productivity, probability of daily survival (PDS) and dispersal rates were estimated for mosquito populations in a high income neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro. Results were contrasted with those previously found in a suburban district, as well as those recorded in a slum. After inspecting 1,041 premises, domestic drains and discarded plastic pots were identified as the most productive containers, collectively holding up to 80% of the total pupae. In addition, three cohorts of dust-marked Ae. aegypti females were released and recaptured daily using BGS-Traps, sticky ovitraps and backpack aspirators in 50 randomly selected houses; recapture rate ranged from 5-12.2% within cohorts. PDS was determined by two models and ranged from 0.607-0.704 (exponential model) and 0.659-0.721 (non-linear model), respectively. Mean distance travelled varied from 57-122 m, with a maximum dispersal of 263 m. Overall, lower infestation indexes and adult female survival were observed in the high income neighbourhood, suggesting a lower dengue transmission risk in comparison to the suburban area and the slum. Since results show that urban structure can influence mosquito biology, specific control strategies might be used in order to achieve cost-effective Ae. aegypti control.
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Compositional data analysis motivated the introduction of a complete Euclidean structure in the simplex of D parts. This was based on the early work of J. Aitchison (1986) and completed recently when Aitchinson distance in the simplex was associated with an inner product and orthonormal bases were identified (Aitchison and others, 2002; Egozcue and others, 2003). A partition of the support of a random variable generates a composition by assigning the probability of each interval to a part of the composition. One can imagine that the partition can be refined and the probability density would represent a kind of continuous composition of probabilities in a simplex of infinitely many parts. This intuitive idea would lead to a Hilbert-space of probability densitiesby generalizing the Aitchison geometry for compositions in the simplex into the set probability densities
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Intraspecific coalitional aggression between groups of individuals is a widespread trait in the animal world. It occurs in invertebrates and vertebrates, and is prevalent in humans. What are the conditions under which coalitional aggression evolves in natural populations? In this article, I develop a mathematical model delineating conditions where natural selection can favor the coevolution of belligerence and bravery between small-scale societies. Belligerence increases an actor's group probability of trying to conquer another group and bravery increase the actors's group probability of defeating an attacked group. The model takes into account two different types of demographic scenarios that may lead to the coevolution of belligerence and bravery. Under the first, the fitness benefits driving the coevolution of belligerence and bravery come through the repopulation of defeated groups by fission of victorious ones. Under the second demographic scenario, the fitness benefits come through a temporary increase in the local carrying capacity of victorious groups, after transfer of resources from defeated groups to victorious ones. The analysis of the model suggests that the selective pressures on belligerence and bravery are stronger when defeated groups can be repopulated by victorious ones. The analysis also suggests that, depending on the shape of the contest success function, costly bravery can evolve in groups of any size.
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In this paper a novel methodology aimed at minimizing the probability of network failure and the failure impact (in terms of QoS degradation) while optimizing the resource consumption is introduced. A detailed study of MPLS recovery techniques and their GMPLS extensions are also presented. In this scenario, some features for reducing the failure impact and offering minimum failure probabilities at the same time are also analyzed. Novel two-step routing algorithms using this methodology are proposed. Results show that these methods offer high protection levels with optimal resource consumption