Persistent random walk model for transport trough thin slabs

We present a model for transport in multiply scattering media based on a three-dimensional generalization of the persistent random walk. The model assumes that photons move along directions that are parallel to the axes. Although this hypothesis is not realistic, it allows us to solve exactly the problem of multiple scattering propagation in a thin slab. Among other quantities, the transmission probability and the mean transmission time can be calculated exactly. Besides being completely solvable, the model could be used as a benchmark for approximation schemes to multiple light scattering.

PERC rule to exclude the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism in emergency low-risk patients: study protocol for the PROPER randomized controlled study.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of Pulmonary Embolism (PE) in the emergency department (ED) is crucial. As emergency physicians fear missing this potential life-threatening condition, PE tends to be over-investigated, exposing patients to unnecessary risks and uncertain benefit in terms of outcome. The Pulmonary Embolism Rule-out Criteria (PERC) is an eight-item block of clinical criteria that can identify patients who can safely be discharged from the ED without further investigation for PE. The endorsement of this rule could markedly reduce the number of irradiative imaging studies, ED length of stay, and rate of adverse events resulting from both diagnostic and therapeutic interventions. Several retrospective and prospective studies have shown the safety and benefits of the PERC rule for PE diagnosis in low-risk patients, but the validity of this rule is still controversial. We hypothesize that in European patients with a low gestalt clinical probability and who are PERC-negative, PE can be safely ruled out and the patient discharged without further testing. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a controlled, cluster randomized trial, in 15 centers in France. Each center will be randomized for the sequence of intervention periods: a 6-month intervention period (PERC-based strategy) followed by a 6-month control period (usual care), or in reverse order, with 2 months of "wash-out" between the 2 periods. Adult patients presenting to the ED with a suspicion of PE and a low pre test probability estimated by clinical gestalt will be eligible. The primary outcome is the percentage of failure resulting from the diagnostic strategy, defined as diagnosed venous thromboembolic events at 3-month follow-up, among patients for whom PE has been initially ruled out. DISCUSSION: The PERC rule has the potential to decrease the number of irradiative imaging studies in the ED, and is reported to be safe. However, no randomized study has ever validated the safety of PERC. Furthermore, some studies have challenged the safety of a PERC-based strategy to rule-out PE, especially in Europe where the prevalence of PE diagnosed in the ED is high. The PROPER study should provide high-quality evidence to settle this issue. If it confirms the safety of the PERC rule, physicians will be able to reduce the number of investigations, associated subsequent adverse events, costs, and ED length of stay for patients with a low clinical probability of PE. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02375919 .

Equating accelerometer estimates among youth: The Rosetta Stone 2.

OBJECTIVES: Different accelerometer cutpoints used by different researchers often yields vastly different estimates of moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA). This is recognized as cutpoint non-equivalence (CNE), which reduces the ability to accurately compare youth MVPA across studies. The objective of this research is to develop a cutpoint conversion system that standardizes minutes of MVPA for six different sets of published cutpoints. DESIGN: Secondary data analysis. METHODS: Data from the International Children's Accelerometer Database (ICAD; Spring 2014) consisting of 43,112 Actigraph accelerometer data files from 21 worldwide studies (children 3-18 years, 61.5% female) were used to develop prediction equations for six sets of published cutpoints. Linear and non-linear modeling, using a leave one out cross-validation technique, was employed to develop equations to convert MVPA from one set of cutpoints into another. Bland Altman plots illustrate the agreement between actual MVPA and predicted MVPA values. RESULTS: Across the total sample, mean MVPA ranged from 29.7MVPAmind(-1) (Puyau) to 126.1MVPAmind(-1) (Freedson 3 METs). Across conversion equations, median absolute percent error was 12.6% (range: 1.3 to 30.1) and the proportion of variance explained ranged from 66.7% to 99.8%. Mean difference for the best performing prediction equation (VC from EV) was -0.110mind(-1) (limits of agreement (LOA), -2.623 to 2.402). The mean difference for the worst performing prediction equation (FR3 from PY) was 34.76mind(-1) (LOA, -60.392 to 129.910). CONCLUSIONS: For six different sets of published cutpoints, the use of this equating system can assist individuals attempting to synthesize the growing body of literature on Actigraph, accelerometry-derived MVPA.

Intercontinental fligths from European Airports: Towards hub concentration or not?

This paper empirically analyzes changes in the supply of non-stop intercontinental flights from European airports. We take advantage of OAG data for air services from a rich sample of European airports to intercontinental destinations in the period 2004-2008. Results of the empirical analysis indicate a tendency towards a more balanced distribution of intercontinental flights across European airports. We also find that the demographic size of a region, its sector specialization, the political role of its central city and the proportion of connecting traffic explain the amount of and changes in long-haul air services supplied from European airports.

Assessing functional relations in single-case designs: Quantitative proposals in the context of the evidence-based movement

In the context of the evidence-based practices movement, the emphasis on computing effect sizes and combining them via meta-analysis does not preclude the demonstration of functional relations. For the latter aim, we propose to augment the visual analysis to add consistency to the decisions made on the existence of a functional relation without losing sight of the need for a methodological evaluation of what stimuli and reinforcement or punishment are used to control the behavior. Four options for quantification are reviewed, illustrated, and tested with simulated data. These quantifications include comparing the projected baseline with the actual treatment measurements, on the basis of either parametric or nonparametric statistics. The simulated data used to test the quantifications include nine data patterns in terms of the presence and type of effect and comprising ABAB and multiple baseline designs. Although none of the techniques is completely flawless in terms of detecting a functional relation only when it is present but not when it is absent, an option based on projecting split-middle trend and considering data variability as in exploratory data analysis proves to be the best performer for most data patterns. We suggest that the information on whether a functional relation has been demonstrated should be included in meta-analyses. It is also possible to use as a weight the inverse of the data variability measure used in the quantification for assessing the functional relation. We offer an easy to use code for open-source software for implementing some of the quantifications.

Prehospital ticagrelor in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

Background:The direct-acting platelet P2Y receptor antagonist ticagrelor can reduce the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events when administered at hospital admission to patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Whether prehospital administration of ticagrelor can improve coronary reperfusion and the clinical outcome is unknown. Methods: We conducted an international, multicenter, randomized, double-blind study involving 1862 patients with ongoing STEMI of less than 6 hours' duration, comparing prehospital (in the ambulance) versus in-hospital (in the catheterization laboratory) treatment with ticagrelor. The coprimary end points were the proportion of patients who did not have a 70% or greater resolution of ST-segment elevation before percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and the proportion of patients who did not have Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction flow grade 3 in the infarct-related artery at initial angiography. Secondary end points included the rates of major adverse cardiovascular events and definite stent thrombosis at 30 days. Results: The median time from randomization to angiography was 48 minutes, and the median time difference between the two treatment strategies was 31 minutes. The two coprimary end points did not differ significantly between the prehospital and in-hospital groups. The absence of ST-segment elevation resolution of 70% or greater after PCI (a secondary end point) was reported for 42.5% and 47.5% of the patients, respectively. The rates of major adverse cardiovascular events did not differ significantly between the two study groups. The rates of definite stent thrombosis were lower in the prehospital group than in the in-hospital group (0% vs. 0.8% in the first 24 hours; 0.2% vs. 1.2% at 30 days). Rates of major bleeding events were low and virtually identical in the two groups, regardless of the bleeding definition used

Emerald zoyzia grass development regarding photosynthetically active radiation in different slopes

With this study, the objective was to estimate the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and to correlate it with the dry matter (MMSPA) of the emerald zoysia (Zoysia japonica Steud.) on surfaces with different expositions and slopes. The research was conducted at the Experimental Watershed of the Agricultural Engineering Department, School of Agriculture and Veterinary Sciences of São Paulo State University (FCAV/UNESP), Brazil, where the surfaces (H, 10 N, 30 N, 50 N, 10 S, 30 S, 50 S, 10 L, 30 L, 50 L, 10 O, 30 O and 50 O) were used. To obtain the global solar radiation, it was installed an automated weather station where the PAR (dependent variable) was obtained by the equation y = a + bx, and the global radiation was independent. To compare means of MMSPA, it was used the Tukey test at 5% probability, and to assess the relation PAR/MMSPA, the simple linear correlation coefficient. The result showed that the accumulation of these effects in the PAR increases with North exposure and decreases with the South, and exposure to 50N is most suitable for slopes, not having correlation between the PAR and the MMSPA for the surfaces evaluated for the study period.

Survey of transportation of liquid bulk chemicals in the Baltic Sea

This study is made as a part of the Chembaltic (Risks of Maritime Transportation of Chemicals in Baltic Sea) project which gathers information on the chemicals transported in the Baltic Sea. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of handling volumes of liquid bulk chemicals (including liquefied gases) in the Baltic Sea ports and to find out what the most transported liquid bulk chemicals in the Baltic Sea are. Oil and oil products are also viewed in this study but only in a general level. Oils and oil products may also include chemical-related substances (e.g. certain bio-fuels which belong to MARPOL annex II category) in some cargo statistics. Chemicals in packaged form are excluded from the study. Most of the facts about the transport volumes of chemicals presented in this study are based on secondary written sources of Scandinavian, Russian, Baltic and international origin. Furthermore, statistical sources, academic journals, periodicals, newspapers and in later years also different homepages on the Internet have been used as sources of information. Chemical handling volumes in Finnish ports were examined in more detail by using a nationwide vessel traffic system called PortNet. Many previous studies have shown that the Baltic Sea ports are annually handling more than 11 million tonnes of liquid chemicals transported in bulk. Based on this study, it appears that the number may be even higher. The liquid bulk chemicals account for approximately 4 % of the total amount of liquid bulk cargoes handled in the Baltic Sea ports. Most of the liquid bulk chemicals are handled in Finnish and Swedish ports and their proportion of all liquid chemicals handled in the Baltic Sea is altogether over 50 %. The most handled chemicals in the Baltic Sea ports are methanol, sodium hydroxide solution, ammonia, sulphuric and phosphoric acid, pentanes, aromatic free solvents, xylenes, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and ethanol and ethanol solutions. All of these chemicals are handled at least hundred thousand tonnes or some of them even over 1 million tonnes per year, but since chemical-specific data from all the Baltic Sea countries is not available, the exact tonnages could not be calculated in this study. In addition to these above-mentioned chemicals, there are also other high volume chemicals handled in the Baltic Sea ports (e.g. ethylene, propane and butane) but exact tonnes are missing. Furthermore, high amounts of liquid fertilisers, such as solution of urea and ammonium nitrate in water, are transported in the Baltic Sea. The results of the study can be considered indicative. Updated information about transported chemicals in the Baltic Sea is the first step in the risk assessment of the chemicals. The chemical-specific transportation data help to target hazard or e.g. grounding/collision risk evaluations to chemicals that are handled most or have significant environmental hazard potential. Data gathered in this study will be used as background information in later stages of the Chembaltic project when the risks of the chemicals transported in the Baltic Sea are assessed to highlight the chemicals that require special attention from an environmental point of view in potential marine accident situations in the Baltic Sea area.

Associated factors to empyema in post-traumatic hemotorax

ABSTRACTObjective:to analyze the associated factors with empyema in patients with post-traumatic retained hemothorax.Methods:prospective observational study. Data were collected in patients undergoing PD during emergency duty. Variables analyzed were age, sex, mechanism of injury, side of the chest injury, intrathoracic complications of RH, laparotomy, specific injuries, rib fractures, trauma scores, days to diagnosis, diagnostic method of RH, primary indication of PD, initial volume drained, length of the first tube removal, surgical procedure. Cumulative incidence of empyema, pneumonia and pulmonary contusion and the proportion of patients with empyema or without empyema in each category of each variable analyzed were obtained.Results: the cumulative incidence of PD among trauma patients was 1.83% and the RH among those with PD was 10.63%. There were 20 cases of empyema (32.8%). Most were male in the age from 20 to 29, victims of injury by firearm on the left side of the thorax. The incidence of empyema in patients with injury by firearms was lower compared to those with stab wound or blunt trauma; higher among those with drained volume between 300 and 599 ml. The median hospital lenght of stay was higher among those with empyema.Conclusion:the incidence of PD was 1.83% and RH was 10.63%, these results are consistent with the low severity of the patients involved in this study and consistent with the literature. The incidence of empyema proved to be negatively associated with the occurrence of injury by firearms and positively associated with a drained volume between 300 and 599 ml, compared with lower or higher volumes.

Stop bugging me! : diversity in appearance of warning coloration

In nature, many animals use body coloration to communicate with each other. For example, colorations can be used as signals between individuals of the same species, but also to recognise individuals of other species, and if they may comprise a threat or not. Many animals use protective coloration to avoid predation. The two most common strategies of protective coloration are camouflage and aposematism. Camouflaged animals have coloration that minimises detection, usually by matching colours or structures in the background. Aposematic animals, on the other hand, signal to predators that they are defended. The defence can be physical structures, such as spikes and hairs, or chemical compounds that make the animal distasteful or even deadly toxic. In order for the warning signal to be effective, the predator has to recognise it as such. Studies have shown that birds for example, that are important visual predators on insects, learn to recognise and avoid unpalatable prey faster if they contrast the background or have large internal contrasts. Typical examples of aposematic species have conspicuous colours like yellow, orange or red, often in combination with black. My thesis focuses on the appearance and function of aposematic colour patterns. Even though researchers have studied aposematism for over a century, there is still a lot we do not know about the phenomenon. For example, as it is crucial that the predators recognise a warning signal, aposematic colorations should assumingly evolve homogeneously and be selected for maximal conspicuousness. Instead, there is an extensive variation of colours and patterns among warning colorations, and it is not uncommon to find typical cryptic colours, such as green and brown in aposematic colour patterns. One hypothesis to this variation is that an aposematic coloration does not have to be maximally signalling in order to be effective, instead it is sufficient to have distinct features that can be easily distinguished from edible prey. To be maximally conspicuous is one way to achieve this, but not the only way. Another hypothesis is that aposematic prey that do not exhibit maximal conspicuousness can exploit both camouflage and aposematism in a distance-dependent fashion, by being signalling when seen close up but camouflaged at a distance. Many prey animals also make use of both strategies by shifting colour at different ecological conditions such as seasonal variations, fluctuations in food resources or between life stages. Yet another explanation for the variation may be that prey animals are usually exposed to several predator species that vary in visual perception and tolerance towards various toxins. The aim with this thesis is, by studying their functions, to understand why aposematic warning signals vary in appearance, specifically in the level of conspicuousness, and if warning coloration can be combined with camouflage. In paper I, I investigated if the colour pattern of the aposematic larva of the Apollo butterfly (Parnassius apollo) can switch function with viewing distance, and be signalling at close range but camouflaged at a distance, by comparing detection time between different colour variants and distances. The results show that the natural coloration has a dual distance-dependent function. Moreover, the study shows that an aposematic coloration does not have to be selected for maximal conspicuousness. A prey animal can optimise its coloration primarily by avoiding detection, but also by investing in a secondary defence, which presence can be signalled if detected. In paper II, I studied how easily detected the coloration of the firebug (Pyrrhocoris apterus), a typical aposematic species, is at different distances against different natural backgrounds, by comparing detection time between different colour variants. Here, I found no distance-dependent switch in function. Instead, the results show that the coloration of the firebug is selected for maximal conspicuousness. One explanation for this is that the firebug is more mobile than the butterfly larva in study I, and movement is often incompatible with efficient camouflage. In paper III, I investigated if a seasonal related colour change in the chemically defended striated shieldbug (Graphosoma lineatum) is an adaptation to optimise a protective coloration by shifting from camouflage to aposematism between two seasons. The results confirm the hypothesis that the coloration expressed in the late summer has a camouflage function, blending in with the background. Further, I investigated if the internal pattern as such increased the effectiveness of the camouflage. Again, the results are in accordance with the hypothesis, as the patterned coloration was more difficult to detect than colorations lacking an internal pattern. This study shows how an aposematic species can optimise its defence by shifting from camouflage to aposematism, but in a different fashion than studied in paper I. The aim with study IV was to study the selection on aposematic signals by identifying characteristics that are common for colorations of aposematic species, and that distinguish them from colorations of other species. I compared contrast, pattern element size and colour proportion between a group of defended species and a group of undefended species. In contrast to my prediction, the results show no significant differences between the two groups in any of the analyses. One explanation for the non-significant results could be that there are no universal characteristics common for aposematic species. Instead, the selection pressures acting on defended species vary, and therefore affect their appearance differently. Another explanation is that all defended species may not have been selected for a conspicuous aposematic warning coloration. Taken together, my thesis shows that having a conspicuous warning coloration is not the only way to be aposematic. Also, aposematism and camouflage is not two mutually exclusive opposites, as there are prey species that exploit both strategies. It is also important to understand that prey animals are exposed to various selection pressures and trade-offs that affect their appearance, and determines what an optimal coloration is for each species or environment. In conclusion, I hold that the variation among warning colorations is larger and coloration properties that have been considered as archetypically aposematic may not be as widespread and representative as previously assumed.

Assessment of Young Learners’ English Proficiency in Bilingual Content Instruction CLIL

This applied linguistic study in the field of second language acquisition investigated the assessment practices of class teachers as well as the challenges and visions of language assessment in bilingual content instruction (CLIL) at primary level in Finnish basic education. Furthermore, pupils’ and their parents’ perceptions of language assessment and LangPerform computer simulations as an alternative, modern assessment method in CLIL contexts were examined. The study was conducted for descriptive and developmental purposes in three phases: 1) a CLIL assessment survey; 2) simulation 1; and 3) simulation 2. All phases had a varying number of participants. The population of this mixed methods study were CLIL class teachers, their pupils and the pupils’ parents. The sampling was multi-staged and based on probability and random sampling. The data were triangulated. Altogether 42 CLIL class teachers nationwide, 109 pupils from the 3rd, 4th and 5th grade as well as 99 parents from two research schools in South-Western Finland participated in the CLIL assessment survey followed by an audio-recorded theme interview of volunteers (10 teachers, 20 pupils and 7 parents). The simulation experimentations 1 and 2 produced 146 pupil and 39 parental questionnaires as well as video interviews of volunteered pupils. The data were analysed both quantitatively using percentages and numerical frequencies and qualitatively employing thematic content analysis. Based on the data, language assessment in primary CLIL is not an established practice. It largely appears to be infrequent, incidental, implicit and based on impressions rather than evidence or the curriculum. The most used assessment methods were teacher observation, bilingual tests and dialogic interaction, and the least used were portfolios, simulations and peer assessment. Although language assessment was generally perceived as important by teachers, a fifth of them did not gather assessment information systematically, and 38% scarcely gave linguistic feedback to pupils. Both pupils and parents wished to receive more information on CLIL language issues; 91% of pupils claimed to receive feedback rarely or occasionally, and 63% of them wished to get more information on their linguistic coping in CLIL subjects. Of the parents, 76% wished to receive more information on the English proficiency of their children and their linguistic development. This may be a response to indirect feedback practices identified in this study. There are several challenges related to assessment; the most notable is the lack of a CLIL curriculum, language objectives and common ground principles of assessment. Three diverse approaches to language in CLIL that appear to affect teachers’ views on language assessment were identified: instrumental (language as a tool), dual (language as a tool and object of learning) and eclectic (miscellaneous views, e.g. affective factors prioritised). LangPerform computer simulations seem to be perceived as an appropriate alternative assessment method in CLIL. It is strongly recommended that the fundamentals for assessment (curricula and language objectives) and a mutual assessment scheme should be determined and stakeholders’ knowledge base of CLIL strengthened. The principles of adequate assessment in primary CLIL are identified as well as several appropriate assessment methods suggested.

Impaired regeneration of dystrophin-deficient muscle fibers is caused by exhaustion of myogenic cells

Duchenne muscular dystrophy is one of the most devastating myopathies. Muscle fibers undergo necrosis and lose their ability to regenerate, and this may be related to increased interstitial fibrosis or the exhaustion of satellite cells. In this study, we used mdx mice, an animal model of Duchenne muscular dystrophy, to assess whether muscle fibers lose their ability to regenerate after repeated cycles of degeneration-regeneration and to establish the role of interstitial fibrosis or exhaustion of satellite cells in this process. Repeated degenerative-regenerative cycles were induced by the injection of bupivacaine (33 mg/kg), a myotoxic agent. Bupivacaine was injected weekly into the right tibialis anterior muscle of male, 8-week-old mdx (N = 20) and C57Bl/10 (control, N = 10) mice for 20 and 50 weeks. Three weeks after the last injection, the mice were killed and the proportion of regenerated fibers was counted and reported as a fibrosis index. Twenty weekly bupivacaine injections did not change the ability of mdx muscle to regenerate. However, after 50 weekly bupivacaine injections, there was a significant decrease in the regenerative response. There was no correlation between the inability to regenerate and the increase in interstitial fibrosis. These results show that after prolonged repeated cycles of degeneration-regeneration, mdx muscle loses its ability to regenerate because of the exhaustion of satellite cells, rather than because of an increase in interstitial fibrosis. This finding may be relevant to cell and gene therapy in the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Morphometric analysis of feedforward pathways from the primary somatosensory area (S1) of rats

We used biotinylated dextran amine (BDA) to anterogradely label individual axons projecting from primary somatosensory cortex (S1) to four different cortical areas in rats. A major goal was to determine whether axon terminals in these target areas shared morphometric similarities based on the shape of individual terminal arbors and the density of two bouton types: en passant (Bp) and terminaux (Bt). Evidence from tridimensional reconstructions of isolated axon terminal fragments (n=111) did support a degree of morphological heterogeneity establishing two broad groups of axon terminals. Morphological parameters associated with the complexity of terminal arbors and the proportion of beaded Bp vs stalked Bt were found to differ significantly in these two groups following a discriminant function statistical analysis across axon fragments. Interestingly, both groups occurred in all four target areas, possibly consistent with a commonality of presynaptic processing of tactile information. These findings lay the ground for additional work aiming to investigate synaptic function at the single bouton level and see how this might be associated with emerging properties in postsynaptic targets.

FUTURES OF FINNISH FOOD SYSTEM BY 2050. The perspective of resilience

Modern food systems face complex global challenges such as climate change, resource scarcities, population growth, concentration and globalization. It is not possible to forecast how all these challenges will affect food systems, but futures research methods provide possibilities to enable better understanding of possible futures and that way increases futures awareness. In this thesis, the two-round online Delphi method was utilized to research experts’ opinions about the present and the future resilience of the Finnish food system up to 2050. The first round questionnaire was constructed based on the resilience indicators developed for agroecosystems. Sub-systems in the study were primary production (main focus), food industry, retail and consumption. Based on the results from the first round, the future images were constructed for primary production and food industry sub-sections. The second round asked experts’ opinion about the future images’ probability and desirability. In addition, panarchy scenarios were constructed by using the adaptive cycle and panarchy frameworks. Furthermore, a new approach to general resilience indicators was developed combining “categories” of the social ecological systems (structure, behaviors and governance) and general resilience parameters (tightness of feedbacks, modularity, diversity, the amount of change a system can withstand, capacity of learning and self- organizing behavior). The results indicate that there are strengths in the Finnish food system for building resilience. According to experts organic farms and larger farms are perceived as socially self-organized, which can promote innovations and new experimentations for adaptation to changing circumstances. In addition, organic farms are currently seen as the most ecologically self-regulated farms. There are also weaknesses in the Finnish food system restricting resilience building. It is important to reach optimal redundancy, in which efficiency and resilience are in balance. In the whole food system, retail sector will probably face the most dramatic changes in the future, especially, when panarchy scenarios and the future images are reflected. The profitability of farms is and will be a critical cornerstone of the overall resilience in primary production. All in all, the food system experts have very positive views concerning the resilience development of the Finnish food system in the future. Sometimes small and local is beautiful, sometimes large and international is more resilient. However, when probabilities and desirability of the future images were questioned, there were significant deviations. It appears that experts do not always believe desirable futures to materialize.

FUTURES OF FINNISH FOOD SYSTEM BY 2050. The perspective of resilience

Modern food systems face complex global challenges such as climate change, resource scarcities, population growth, concentration and globalization. It is not possible to forecast how all these challenges will affect food systems, but futures research methods provide possibilities to enable better understanding of possible futures and that way increases futures awareness. In this thesis, the two-round online Delphi method was utilized to research experts’ opinions about the present and the future resilience of the Finnish food system up to 2050. The first round questionnaire was constructed based on the resilience indicators developed for agroecosystems. Sub-systems in the study were primary production (main focus), food industry, retail and consumption. Based on the results from the first round, the future images were constructed for primary production and food industry sub-sections. The second round asked experts’ opinion about the future images’ probability and desirability. In addition, panarchy scenarios were constructed by using the adaptive cycle and panarchy frameworks. Furthermore, a new approach to general resilience indicators was developed combining “categories” of the social ecological systems (structure, behaviors and governance) and general resilience parameters (tightness of feedbacks, modularity, diversity, the amount of change a system can withstand, capacity of learning and self- organizing behavior). The results indicate that there are strengths in the Finnish food system for building resilience. According to experts organic farms and larger farms are perceived as socially self-organized, which can promote innovations and new experimentations for adaptation to changing circumstances. In addition, organic farms are currently seen as the most ecologically self-regulated farms. There are also weaknesses in the Finnish food system restricting resilience building. It is important to reach optimal redundancy, in which efficiency and resilience are in balance. In the whole food system, retail sector will probably face the most dramatic changes in the future, especially, when panarchy scenarios and the future images are reflected. The profitability of farms is and will be a critical cornerstone of the overall resilience in primary production. All in all, the food system experts have very positive views concerning the resilience development of the Finnish food system in the future. Sometimes small and local is beautiful, sometimes large and international is more resilient. However, when probabilities and desirability of the future images were questioned, there were significant deviations. It appears that experts do not always believe desirable futures to materialize.