952 resultados para prior probabilities


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We have studied the HA1 domain of 254 human influenza A(H3N2) virus genes for clues that might help identify characteristics of hemagglutinins (HAs) of circulating strains that are predictive of that strain’s epidemic potential. Our preliminary findings include the following. (i) The most parsimonious tree found requires 1,260 substitutions of which 712 are silent and 548 are replacement substitutions. (ii) The HA1 portion of the HA gene is evolving at a rate of 5.7 nucleotide substitutions/year or 5.7 × 10−3 substitutions/site per year. (iii) The replacement substitutions are distributed randomly across the three positions of the codon when allowance is made for the number of ways each codon can change the encoded amino acid. (iv) The replacement substitutions are not distributed randomly over the branches of the tree, there being 2.2 times more changes per tip branch than for non-tip branches. This result is independent of how the virus was amplified (egg grown or kidney cell grown) prior to sequencing or if sequencing was carried out directly on the original clinical specimen by PCR. (v) These excess changes on the tip branches are probably the result of a bias in the choice of strains to sequence and the detection of deleterious mutations that had not yet been removed by negative selection. (vi) There are six hypervariable codons accumulating replacement substitutions at an average rate that is 7.2 times that of the other varied codons. (vii) The number of variable codons in the trunk branches (the winners of the competitive race against the immune system) is 47 ± 5, significantly fewer than in the twigs (90 ± 7), which in turn is significantly fewer variable codons than in tip branches (175 ± 8). (viii) A minimum of one of every 12 branches has nodes at opposite ends representing viruses that reside on different continents. This is, however, no more than would be expected if one were to randomly reassign the continent of origin of the isolates. (ix) Of 99 codons with at least four mutations, 31 have ratios of non-silent to silent changes with probabilities less than 0.05 of occurring by chance, and 14 of those have probabilities <0.005. These observations strongly support positive Darwinian selection. We suggest that the small number of variable positions along the successful trunk lineage, together with knowledge of the codons that have shown positive selection, may provide clues that permit an improved prediction of which strains will cause epidemics and therefore should be used for vaccine production.

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Plasma levels of corticosterone are often used as a measure of “stress” in wild animal populations. However, we lack conclusive evidence that different stress levels reflect different survival probabilities between populations. Galápagos marine iguanas offer an ideal test case because island populations are affected differently by recurring El Niño famine events, and population-level survival can be quantified by counting iguanas locally. We surveyed corticosterone levels in six populations during the 1998 El Niño famine and the 1999 La Niña feast period. Iguanas had higher baseline and handling stress-induced corticosterone concentrations during famine than feast conditions. Corticosterone levels differed between islands and predicted survival through an El Niño period. However, among individuals, baseline corticosterone was only elevated when body condition dropped below a critical threshold. Thus, the population-level corticosterone response was variable but nevertheless predicted overall population health. Our results lend support to the use of corticosterone as a rapid quantitative predictor of survival in wild animal populations.

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The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

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With efforts underway to develop a preventive human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) vaccine, it remains unclear which immune responses are sufficient to protect against infection and whether prior HIV-1 immunity can alter the subsequent course of HIV-1 infection. We investigated these issues in the context of a volunteer who received six HIV-1LAI envelope immunizations and 10 weeks thereafter acquired HIV-1 infection through a high-risk sexual exposure. In contrast to nonvaccinated acutely infected individuals, anamnestic HIV-1-specific B- and T-cell responses appeared within 3 weeks in this individual, and neutralizing antibody preceded CD8+ cytotoxic responses. Despite an asymptomatic course and an initial low level of detectable infectious virus, a progressive CD4+ cell decline and dysfunction occurred within 2 years. Although vaccination elicited immunity to HIV-1 envelope, which was recalled upon HIV-1 exposure, it was insufficient to prevent infection and subsequent immunodeficiency.

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Li and Chakravarti [Li, C.C. & Chakravarti, A. (1994) Hum. Hered. 44, 100-109] compared the probability (MO) of a random match between the two DNA profiles of a pair of individuals drawn from a random-mating population to the probability (MF) of the match between a pair of random individuals drawn from a subdivided population. The level of heterogeneity in this subdivided population is measured by the parameter F, where there is no subdivision when F = 0 and increasing values of F indicate increasing subdivisions. Li and Chakravarti concluded that it is conservative to use the match probability MO, which is derived under the assumption that the two individuals are drawn from a homogeneous random-mating population without subdivision. However, MO may not be always greater than MF, even for biologically reasonable values of F. We explore here those mathematical conditions under which MO is less than MF, and we find that MO is not conservative mainly when there is an allele with a much higher frequency than all the other alleles. When empirical data for both variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) and short tandem repeat (STR) systems are evaluated, we find that in the majority of cases MO represents a conservative probability of a match, and so the subdivision of human populations may usually be ignored for a random match, although not, of course, for relatives. Loci for which MO is not conservative should be avoided for forensic inference.

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ABSTRACT This study is an account of the literacy-related human environment a Chinese girl experienced as the first person in the history of her family who was able to read prior to entry into elementary school. Temporally speaking, the study spanned more than a decade from the initial, tentative research question to the formal, primary research question. Spatially speaking, it crossed three cultures: the Chinese, Korean, and American cultures. The study was inspired by the Zero Project in China, known as the "Project of Quality Education and Implementation for Children Aged Zero (fetus) to Six." The significance of the content issue in a child's literacy curriculum was explored in an interdisciplinary way. Case study served as a holistic research approach and provided the researcher with free temporal and spatial distance to pursue the indefinably multi-dimensional intricacies of a child's early literacy acquisition among generations in the family. Interpretation of the case was based on the relevant concepts within the scope of the researcher's knowledge of Chinese culture. Major findings revealed that the child's literacy acquisition was inseparably related to her parents' background as well as their awareness of and attitudes towards literacy, and that the foundation of all this was the harmony of the family. Through the lens of generational attitudes towards literacy and especially the lens of the researcher's multicultural life experiences, this study contributes to the field of curriculum studies in general and early literacy curriculum in particular by stimulating people to reconsider what to read to children, besides how to read to them. It calls attention once again to the classic curriculum question, "What knowledge is of most worth?" as well as what is the most essential spiritual food human beings need besides physical needs. This study suggests that Chinese philosophy should be included in a child's early literacy curriculum in China and calls for dialogues on the content issue of curriculum to gain a deeper understanding of human nature so that humans might co-live peacefully with all beings in the universe.

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Müller cells are the main glial cells in the retina, and are related to plexiform layer activity. Recent studies have demonstrated that Müller cells are involved in the synaptic conservation, plasticity, development and metabolism of glutamate. During turtle retinal development, layers, cells and synapses appear at different times. The aim of this research is to study the emergence of Müller cells during embryonic development and their relationship with the synaptogenesis. The authors used retinas from Trachemys scripta elegans embryos at stages S14, 18, 20, 23, and 26. Some retinas were processed with immunocytochemistry in order to detect the presence of glutamine synthetase in Müller cells, which was used as a marker of these cells. Other retinas from the same stages were processed for ultrastructural studies. Samples were observed in confocal and transmission electron microscopes, respectively. The present results show that glutamine synthetase expression in Müller cells occurs at S18, before the emergence of the retinal layers and the early synapses.

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prepared under the direction of Carroll D. Wright ; for the use of the United States Department of Labor.

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no.24(1939)

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no.23(1939)