965 resultados para predictions
Resumo:
Taiwan is a rapidly changing society, facing many challenges. In this state of flux, it is important to step back and see the big picture. The NewFutures 2000 conference, which commemorated fifty years of the of Tamkang University, in TamShui (the northernmost tip), Taiwan (Republic of China) and was held on 5–7 November 2000, gave Taiwanese an opportunity to gain just such a perspective. The ostensible aim of the conference was to explore ‘transformations in education, culture and technology’. But numerous perspectives and academic approaches were explored; predictions, normative visions, probable futures, alternative futures, ethical futures, epistemological re-constructions, studies and deconstruction’s of images of the future, myth and worldview—all received attention, sometimes overwhelming the participants with contradictory and overbearing ideas. [introduction]
Resumo:
Groundwater is a major resource on Bribie Island and its sustainable management is essential to maintain the natural and modified eco-systems, as well as the human population and the integrity of the island as a sand mass. An effective numerical model is essential to enable predictions, and to test various water use and rainfall/climate scenarios. Such a numerical model must, however, be based on a representative conceptual hydrogeological model to allow incorporation of realistic controls and processes. Here we discuss the various hydrogeological models and parameters, and hydrological properties of the materials forming the island. We discuss the hydrological processes and how they can be incorporated into these models, in an integrated manner. Processes include recharge, discharge to wetlands and along the coastline, abstraction, evapotranspiration and potential seawater intrusion. The types and distributions of groundwater bores and monitoring are considered, as are scenarios for groundwater supply abstraction. Different types of numerical models and their applicability are also considered
Resumo:
Accurate reliability prediction for large-scale, long lived engineering is a crucial foundation for effective asset risk management and optimal maintenance decision making. However, a lack of failure data for assets that fail infrequently, and changing operational conditions over long periods of time, make accurate reliability prediction for such assets very challenging. To address this issue, we present a Bayesian-Marko best approach to reliability prediction using prior knowledge and condition monitoring data. In this approach, the Bayesian theory is used to incorporate prior information about failure probabilities and current information about asset health to make statistical inferences, while Markov chains are used to update and predict the health of assets based on condition monitoring data. The prior information can be supplied by domain experts, extracted from previous comparable cases or derived from basic engineering principles. Our approach differs from existing hybrid Bayesian models which are normally used to update the parameter estimation of a given distribution such as the Weibull-Bayesian distribution or the transition probabilities of a Markov chain. Instead, our new approach can be used to update predictions of failure probabilities when failure data are sparse or nonexistent, as is often the case for large-scale long-lived engineering assets.
Resumo:
The LiteSteel Beam (LSB) is a new hollow flange channel section developed using a patented dual electric resistance welding and cold-forming process. It has a unique geometry consisting of torsionally rigid rectangular hollow flanges and a slender web, and is commonly used as flexural members. However, the LSB flexural members are subjected to a relatively new lateral distortional buckling mode, which reduces their moment capacities. Unlike lateral torsional buckling, the lateral distortional buckling of LSBs is characterised by simultaneous lateral deflection, twist and cross sectional change due to web distortion. Therefore a detailed investigation into the lateral buckling behaviour of LSB flexural members was undertaken using experiments and finite element analyses. This paper presents the details of suitable finite element models developed to simulate the behaviour and capacity of LSB flexural members subject to lateral buckling. The models included all significant effects that influence the ultimate moment capacities of such members, including material inelasticity, lateral distortional buckling deformations, web distortion, residual stresses, and geometric imperfections. Comparison of elastic buckling and ultimate moment capacity results with predictions from other numerical analyses and available buckling moment equations, and experimental results showed that the developed finite element models accurately predict the behaviour and moment capacities of LSBs. The validated model was then used in a detailed parametric study that produced accurate moment capacity data for all the LSB sections and improved design rules for LSB flexural members subject to lateral distortional buckling.
Resumo:
Recently developed cold-formed LiteSteel beam (LSB) sections have found increasing popularity in residential, industrial and commercial buildings due to their light weight and cost-effectiveness. Another beneficial characteristic is that they allow torsionally rigid rectangular flanges to be combined with economical fabrication processes. Currently, there is significant interest in the use of LSB sections as flexural members in floor joist systems. When used as floor joists, these sections require openings in the web to provide access for inspection and other services. At present, however, there is no design method available that provides accurate predictions of the moment capacities of LSBs with web openings. This paper presents the results of an investigation of the buckling and ultimate strength behaviour of LSB flexural members with web openings. A detailed fine element analysis (FEA)-based parametric study was conducted with the aim of developing appropriate design rules and making recommendations for the safe design of LSB floor joists. The results include the required moment capacity curves for LSB sections with a range of web opening combinations and spans and the development of appropriate design rules for the prediction of the ultimate moment capacities of LSBs with web openings.
Resumo:
Cold-formed steel beams are increasingly used as floor joists and bearers in buildings. Their behaviour and moment capacities are influenced by lateral-torsional buckling when they are not laterally restrained adequately. Past research on lateral-torsional buckling has concentrated on hot-rolled steel beams. Hence a numerical study was undertaken to investigate the lateral-torsional buckling behaviour of simply supported cold-formed steel lipped channel beams subjected to uniform bending. For this purpose a finite element model was developed using ABAQUS and its accuracy was verified using available numerical and experimental results. It was then used in a detailed parametric study to simulate the lateral-torsional buckling behaviour and capacity of cold-formed steel beams under varying conditions. The moment capacity results were compared with the predictions from the current design rules in many cold-formed steel codes and suitable recommendations were made. European design rules were found to be conservative while Australian/New Zealand and North American design rules were unconservative. Hence the moment capacity design equations in these codes were modified in this paper based on the available finite element analysis results. This paper presents the details of the parametric study, recommendations to current design rules and the new design rules proposed in this research for lateral-torsional buckling of cold-formed steel lipped channel beams.
Resumo:
The use of cold-formed steel members as structural columns and beams in residential, industrial and commercial buildings has increased significantly in recent times. This study is focused on the use of cold-formed steel sections as flexural members subject to lateral-torsional buckling. For this purpose a finite element model of a simply supported lipped channel beam under uniform bending was developed, validated using available numerical and experimental results, and used in a detailed parametric study. The moment capacity results were then compared with the predictions from the current ambient temperature design rules in the cold-formed steel structures codes of Australia, New Zealand, North America and Europe. European design rules were found to be conservative while Australian and American design rules were unsafe. This paper presents the results of the numerical study, the comparison with the current design rules and the new proposed design rules.
Resumo:
The crosstalk between fibroblasts and keratinocytes is a vital component of the wound healing process, and involves the activity of a number of growth factors and cytokines. In this work, we develop a mathematical model of this crosstalk in order to elucidate the effects of these interactions on the regeneration of collagen in a wound that heals by second intention. We consider the role of four components that strongly affect this process: transforming growth factor-beta, platelet-derived growth factor, interleukin-1 and keratinocyte growth factor. The impact of this network of interactions on the degradation of an initial fibrin clot, as well as its subsequent replacement by a matrix that is mainly comprised of collagen, is described through an eight-component system of nonlinear partial differential equations. Numerical results, obtained in a two-dimensional domain, highlight key aspects of this multifarious process such as reepithelialisation. The model is shown to reproduce many of the important features of normal wound healing. In addition, we use the model to simulate the treatment of two pathological cases: chronic hypoxia, which can lead to chronic wounds; and prolonged inflammation, which has been shown to lead to hypertrophic scarring. We find that our model predictions are qualitatively in agreement with previously reported observations, and provide an alternative pathway for gaining insight into this complex biological process.
Resumo:
Several studies of the surface effect on bending properties of a nanowire (NW) have been conducted. However, these analyses are mainly based on theoretical predictions, and there is seldom integration study in combination between theoretical predictions and simulation results. Thus, based on the molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and different modified beam theories, a comprehensive theoretical and numerical study for bending properties of nanowires considering surface/intrinsic stress effects and axial extension effect is conducted in this work. The discussion begins from the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory and Timoshenko beam theory augmented with surface effect. It is found that when the NW possesses a relatively small cross-sectional size, these two theories cannot accurately interpret the true surface effect. The incorporation of axial extension effect into Euler-Bernoulli beam theory provides a nonlinear solution that agrees with the nonlinear-elastic experimental and MD results. However, it is still found inaccurate when the NW cross-sectional size is relatively small. Such inaccuracy is also observed for the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory augmented with both contributions from surface effect and axial extension effect. A comprehensive model for completely considering influences from surface stress, intrinsic stress, and axial extension is then proposed, which leads to good agreement with MD simulation results. It is thus concluded that, for NWs with a relatively small cross-sectional size, a simple consideration of surface stress effect is inappropriate, and a comprehensive consideration of the intrinsic stress effect is required.
Resumo:
Establishing a persistent presence in the ocean with an AUV to observe temporal variability of large-scale ocean processes requires a unique sensor platform. In this paper, we propose a strategy that utilizes ocean model predictions to increase the autonomy and control of Lagrangian or profiling floats for precisely this purpose. An A* planner is applied to a local controllability map generated from predictions of ocean currents to compute a path between prescribed waypoints that has the highest likelihood of successful execution. The control to follow the planned path is computed by use of a model predictive controller. This controller is designed to select the best depth for the vehicle to exploit ambient currents to reach the goal waypoint. Mission constraints are employed to simulate a practical data collection mission. Results are presented in simulation for a mission off the coast of Los Angeles, CA USA, and show surprising results in the ability of a Lagrangian float to reach a desired location.
Resumo:
Heat transfer through an attic space into or out of buildings is an important issue for attic-shaped houses in both hot and cold climates. One of the important objectives for design and construction of houses is to provide thermal comfort for occupants. In the present energy-conscious society, it is also a requirement for houses to be energy efficient, i.e. the energy consumption for heating or air-conditioning houses must be minimized. Relevant to these objectives, research into heat transfer in attics has been conducted for about three decades. The transient behaviour of an attic space is directly relevant to our daily life. Certain periods of the day or night may be considered as having a constant ambient temperature (e.g. during 11am - 2pm or 11pm - 2am). However, at other times during the day or night the ambient temperature changes with time (e.g. between 5am - 9am or 5pm - 9pm). Therefore, the analysis of steady state solution is not sufficient to describe the fluid flow and heat transfer in the attic space. The discussion of the transient development of the boundary is required. A theoretical understanding of the transient behaviour of the flow in the enclosure is performed through scaling analysis for sudden and ramp heating conditions. A proper identification of the timescales, the velocity and the thickness relevant to the flow that develops inside the cavity makes it possible to predict theoretically the basic flow features that will survive once the thermal flow in the enclosure reaches a steady state. Those scaling predictions have been verified by a series of numerical simulations.
Resumo:
Topographically and chemically modified titanium implants are recognized to have improved osteogenic properties; however, the molecular regulation of this process remains unknown. This study aimed to determine the microRNA profile and the potential regulation of osteogenic differentiation following early exposure of osteoprogenitor cells to sand-blasted, large-grit acid-etched (SLA) and hydrophilic SLA (modSLA) surfaces. Firstly, the osteogenic characteristics of the primary osteoprogenitor cells were confirmed using ALP activity and Alizarin Red S staining. The effect of smooth (SMO), SLA and modSLA surfaces on the TGF-β/BMP (BMP2, BMP6, ACVR1) and non-canonical WNT/Ca2+ (WNT5A, FZD6) pathways, as well as the integrins ITGB1 and ITGA2, was determined. It was revealed that the modified titanium surfaces could induce the activation of TGF-β/BMP and non-canonical WNT/Ca2+ signaling genes. The expression pattern of microRNAs (miRNAs) related to cell differentiation was evaluated. Statistical analysis of the differentially regulated miRNAs indicated that 35 and 32 miRNAs were down-regulated on the modSLA and SLA surfaces respectively, when compared with the smooth surface (SMO). Thirty-one miRNAs that were down-regulated were common to both modSLA and SLA. There were 10 miRNAs up-regulated on modSLA and nine on SLA surfaces, amongst which eight were the same as observed on modSLA. TargetScan predictions for the down-regulated miRNAs revealed genes of the TGF-β/BMP and non-canonical Ca2+ pathways as targets. This study demonstrated that modified titanium implant surfaces induce differential regulation of miRNAs, which potentially regulate the TGF-β/BMP and WNT/Ca2+ pathways during osteogenic differentiation on modified titanium implant surfaces.
Resumo:
Based on the molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and the classical Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, a fundamental study of the vibrational performance of the Ag nanowire (NW) is carried out. A comprehensive analysis of the quality (Q)-factor, natural frequency, beat vibration, as well as high vibration mode is presented. Two excitation approaches, i.e., velocity excitation and displacement excitation, have been successfully implemented to achieve the vibration of NWs. Upon these two kinds of excitations, consistent results are obtained, i.e., the increase of the initial excitation amplitude will lead to a decrease to the Q-factor, and moderate plastic deformation could increase the first natural frequency. Meanwhile, the beat vibration driven by a single relatively large excitation or two uniform excitations in both two lateral directions is observed. It is concluded that the nonlinear changing trend of external energy magnitude does not necessarily mean a nonconstant Q-factor. In particular, the first order natural frequency of the Ag NW is observed to decrease with the increase of temperature. Furthermore, comparing with the predictions by Euler- Bernoulli beam theory, the MD simulation provides a larger and smaller first vibration frequencies for the clamped-clamped and clamped-free thin Ag NWs, respectively. Additionally, for thin NWs, the first order natural frequency exhibits a parabolic relationship with the excitation magnitudes. The frequencies of the higher vibration modes tend to be low in comparison to Euler-Bernoulli beam theory predictions. A combined initial excitation is proposed which is capable to drive the NW under a multi-mode vibration and arrows the coexistence of all the following low vibration modes. This work sheds lights on the better understanding of the mechanical properties of NWs and benefits the increasing utilities of NWs in diverse nano-electronic devices.
Resumo:
Establishing a persistent presence in the ocean with an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle capable of observing temporal variability of large-scale ocean processes requires a unique sensor platform. In this paper, we examine the utility of Lagrangian profiling floats for such extended deployments. We propose a strategy that utilizes ocean model predictions to facilitate a basic level of autonomy to achieve general control of this minimally-actuated underwater vehicle. We extend experimentally validated techniques for utilising ocean current models to control under-actuated autonomous underwater vehicles by presenting this investigation into the application of these methods on profiling floats. With the appropriate vertical actuation, and utilising spatiotemporal variations in water speed and direction, we show that broad controllability results can be met. First, we apply an A* planner to a local controllability map generated from predictions of ocean currents. This computes a path between start and goal waypoints that has the highest likelihood of successful execution over a given duration. The computed depth plan is generated with a model predictive controller, and selects the depths for the vehicle so that ambient currents guide it toward the goal. Mission constraints are included to simulate and motivate a practical data collection mission. Results are presented in simulation for a mission off the coast of Los Angeles, CA USA, that show surprising results in the ability of a drifting vehicle to maintain a prescribed course and reach a desired location.
Resumo:
The intensity pulsations of a cw 1030 nm Yb:Phosphate monolithic waveguide laser with distributed feedback are described. We show that the pulsations could result from the coupling of the two orthogonal polarization modes through the two photon process of cooperative luminescence. The predictions of the presented theoretical model agree well with the observed behaviour.