A unifying approach for haplotype analysis of quantitative traits in family-based association studies: Testing and estimating gene-environment interactions with complex exposure variables

We propose robust and e±cient tests and estimators for gene-environment/gene-drug interactions in family-based association studies. The methodology is designed for studies in which haplotypes, quantitative pheno- types and complex exposure/treatment variables are analyzed. Using causal inference methodology, we derive family-based association tests and estimators for the genetic main effects and the interactions. The tests and estimators are robust against population admixture and strati¯cation without requiring adjustment for confounding variables. We illustrate the practical relevance of our approach by an application to a COPD study. The data analysis suggests a gene-environment interaction between a SNP in the Serpine gene and smok- ing status/pack years of smoking that reduces the FEV1 volume by about 0.02 liter per pack year of smoking. Simulation studies show that the pro- posed methodology is su±ciently powered for realistic sample sizes and that it provides valid tests and effect size estimators in the presence of admixture and stratification.

Herbal medicine in the treatment of liver diseases

Herbal drugs have become increasingly popular and their use is widespread. Licensing regulations and pharmacovigilance regarding herbal products are still incomplete and clearcut proof of their efficacy in liver diseases is sparse. Nevertheless, a number of herbals show promising activity including silymarin for antifibrotic treatment, phyllantus amarus in chronic hepatitis B, glycyrrhizin to treat chronic viral hepatitis, and a number of herbal combinations from China and Japan that deserve testing in appropriate studies. Apart from therapeutic properties, reports are accumulating about liver injury after the intake of herbals, including those advertised for liver diseases. Acute and/or chronic liver damage occurred after ingestion of some Chinese herbs, herbals that contain pyrrolizidine alkaloids, germander, greater celandine, kava, atractylis gummifera, callilepsis laureola, senna alkaloids, chaparral and many others. Since the evidence supporting the use of botanicals to treat chronic liver diseases is insufficient and only few of them are well standardised and free of potential serious side effects, most of these medications are not recommended outside clinical trials. Particularly with regard to the latter, adequately powered randomised-controlled clinical trials with well-selected end points are needed to assess the role of herbal therapy for liver diseases.

Cardiovascular disease and periodontitis: an update on the associations and risk

BACKGROUND: Associations between periodontitis and cardiovascular diseases have been recognized. MATERIAL AND METHODS: New literature since the last European Workshop on Periodontology has been reviewed. RESULTS: The lack of reliable epidemiological data on disease prevalence makes an assessment of the associations and risks between periodontitis and cardiovascular diseases difficult. Two recent meta-analysis reports have identified associations between periodontitis and cardiovascular diseases (odds ratios: 1.1-2.2). Different surrogate markers for both disease entities, including serum biomarkers, have been investigated. Brachial artery flow-mediated dilatation, and carotid intima media thickness have in some studies been linked to periodontitis. Studies are needed to confirm early results of improvements of such surrogate markers following periodontal therapy. While intensive periodontal therapy may enhance inflammatory responses and impair vascular functions, studies are needed to assess the outcome of periodontal therapies in subjects with confirmed cardiovascular conditions. Tooth eradication may also reduce the systemic inflammatory burden of individuals with severe periodontitis. The role of confounders remain unclear. CONCLUSIONS: Periodontitis may contribute to cardiovascular disease and stroke in susceptible subjects. Properly powered longitudinal case-control and intervention trials are needed to identify how periodontitis and periodontal interventions may have an impact on cardiovascular diseases.

ECG-triggered skeletal muscle stimulation improves hemodynamics and physical performance of heart failure patients

BACKGROUND: Muscular counterpulsation (MCP) was developed for circulatory assistance by stimulation of peripheral skeletal muscles. We report on a clinical MCP study in patients with and without chronic heart failure (CHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: MCP treatment was applied (30 patients treated, 25 controls, all under optimal therapy) for 30 minutes during eight days by an ECG-triggered, battery-powered, portable pulse generator with skin electrodes inducing light contractions of calf and thigh muscles, sequentially stimulated at early diastole. Hemodynamic parameters (ECG, blood pressure and echocardiography) were measured one day before and one day after the treatment period in two groups: Group 1 (9 MCP, 11 no MCP) with ejection fraction (EF) above 40% and Group 2 (21 MCP, 14 no MCP) below 40%. In Group 2 (all patients suffering from CHF) mean EF increased by 21% (p<0.001) and stroke volume by 13% (p<0.001), while end systolic volume decreased by 23% (p<0.001). In Group 1, the increase in EF (6%) and stroke volume (8%) was also significant (p<0.05) but less pronounced than in Group 2. Physical exercise duration and walking distance increased in Group 2 by 56% and 72%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Noninvasive MCP treatment for eight days substantially improves cardiac function and physical performance in patients with CHF.

Automated, compliant, high-flow common carotid to middle cerebral artery bypass

The authors describe the use of the Cardica C-Port xA Distal Anastomosis System to perform an automated, high-flow extracranial-intracranial bypass. The C-Port system has been developed and tested in coronary artery bypass surgery for rapid distal coronary artery anastomoses. Air-powered, it performs an automated end-to-side anastomosis within seconds by nearly simultaneously making an arteriotomy and inserting 13 microclips into the graft and recipient vessel. Intracranial use of the device was first simulated in a cadaver prepared for microsurgical anatomical dissection. The authors used this system in a 43-year-old man who sustained a subarachnoid hemorrhage after being assaulted and was found to have a traumatic pseudoaneurysm of the proximal intracranial internal carotid artery. The aneurysm appeared to be enlarging on serial imaging studies and it was anticipated that a bypass would probably be needed to treat the lesion. An end-to-side bypass was performed with the C-Port system using a saphenous vein conduit extending from the common carotid artery to the middle cerebral artery. The bypass was demonstrated to be patent on intraoperative and postoperative arteriography. The patient had a temporary hyperperfusion syndrome and subsequently made a good neurological recovery. The C-Port system facilitates the performance of a high-flow extracranial-intracranial bypass with short periods of temporary arterial occlusion. Because of the size and configuration of the device, its use is not feasible in all anatomical situations that require a high-flow bypass; however it is a useful addition to the armamentarium of the neurovascular surgeon.

Experimental investigation of regular fluids and nanofluids during flow boiling in a single microchannel at different heat fluxes and mass fluxes

The dissipation of high heat flux from integrated circuit chips and the maintenance of acceptable junction temperatures in high powered electronics require advanced cooling technologies. One such technology is two-phase cooling in microchannels under confined flow boiling conditions. In macroscale flow boiling bubbles will nucleate on the channel walls, grow, and depart from the surface. In microscale flow boiling bubbles can fill the channel diameter before the liquid drag force has a chance to sweep them off the channel wall. As a confined bubble elongates in a microchannel, it traps thin liquid films between the heated wall and the vapor core that are subject to large temperature gradients. The thin films evaporate rapidly, sometimes faster than the incoming mass flux can replenish bulk fluid in the microchannel. When the local vapor pressure spike exceeds the inlet pressure, it forces the upstream interface to travel back into the inlet plenum and create flow boiling instabilities. Flow boiling instabilities reduce the temperature at which critical heat flux occurs and create channel dryout. Dryout causes high surface temperatures that can destroy the electronic circuits that use two-phase micro heat exchangers for cooling. Flow boiling instability is characterized by periodic oscillation of flow regimes which induce oscillations in fluid temperature, wall temperatures, pressure drop, and mass flux. When nanofluids are used in flow boiling, the nanoparticles become deposited on the heated surface and change its thermal conductivity, roughness, capillarity, wettability, and nucleation site density. It also affects heat transfer by changing bubble departure diameter, bubble departure frequency, and the evaporation of the micro and macrolayer beneath the growing bubbles. Flow boiling was investigated in this study using degassed, deionized water, and 0.001 vol% aluminum oxide nanofluids in a single rectangular brass microchannel with a hydraulic diameter of 229 µm for one inlet fluid temperature of 63°C and two constant flow rates of 0.41 ml/min and 0.82 ml/min. The power input was adjusted for two average surface temperatures of 103°C and 119°C at each flow rate. High speed images were taken periodically for water and nanofluid flow boiling after durations of 25, 75, and 125 minutes from the start of flow. The change in regime timing revealed the effect of nanoparticle suspension and deposition on the Onset of Nucelate Boiling (ONB) and the Onset of Bubble Elongation (OBE). Cycle duration and bubble frequencies are reported for different nanofluid flow boiling durations. The addition of nanoparticles was found to stabilize bubble nucleation and growth and limit the recession rate of the upstream and downstream interfaces, mitigating the spreading of dry spots and elongating the thin film regions to increase thin film evaporation.

EXHAUST EMISSIONS OF LOW LEVEL BLEND ALCOHOL FUELS FROM TWO-STROKE AND FOUR-STROKE MARINE ENGINES

The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard mandates that by 2022, 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels must be produced on a yearly basis. Ethanol production is capped at 15 billion gallons, meaning 21 billion gallons must come from different alternative fuel sources. A viable alternative to reach the remainder of this mandate is iso-butanol. Unlike ethanol, iso-butanol does not phase separate when mixed with water, meaning it can be transported using traditional pipeline methods. Iso-butanol also has a lower oxygen content by mass, meaning it can displace more petroleum while maintaining the same oxygen concentration in the fuel blend. This research focused on studying the effects of low level alcohol fuels on marine engine emissions to assess the possibility of using iso-butanol as a replacement for ethanol. Three marine engines were used in this study, representing a wide range of what is currently in service in the United States. Two four-stroke engine and one two-stroke engine powered boats were tested in the tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay, near Annapolis, Maryland over the course of two rounds of weeklong testing in May and September. The engines were tested using a standard test cycle and emissions were sampled using constant volume sampling techniques. Specific emissions for two-stroke and four-stroke engines were compared to the baseline indolene tests. Because of the nature of the field testing, limited engine parameters were recorded. Therefore, the engine parameters analyzed aside from emissions were the operating relative air-to-fuel ratio and engine speed. Emissions trends from the baseline test to each alcohol fuel for the four-stroke engines were consistent, when analyzing a single round of testing. The same trends were not consistent when comparing separate rounds because of uncontrolled weather conditions and because the four-stroke engines operate without fuel control feedback during full load conditions. Emissions trends from the baseline test to each alcohol fuel for the two-stroke engine were consistent for all rounds of testing. This is due to the fact the engine operates open-loop, and does not provide fueling compensation when fuel composition changes. Changes in emissions with respect to the baseline for iso-butanol were consistent with changes for ethanol. It was determined iso-butanol would make a viable replacement for ethanol.

ANKLE IMPEDANCE AND ANKLE ANGLES DURING STEP TURN AND STRAIGHT WALK: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DESIGN OF A STEERABLE ANKLE-FOOT PROSTHETIC ROBOT

During locomotion, turning is a common and recurring event which is largely neglected in the current state-of-the-art ankle-foot prostheses, forcing amputees to use different steering mechanisms for turning, compared to non-amputees. A better understanding of the complexities surrounding lower limb prostheses will lead to increased health and well-being of amputees. The aim of this research is to develop a steerable ankle-foot prosthesis that mimics the human ankle mechanical properties. Experiments were developed to estimate the mechanical impedance of the ankle and the ankles angles during straight walk and step turn. Next, this information was used in the design of a prototype, powered steerable ankle-foot prosthesis with two controllable degrees of freedom. One of the possible approaches in design of the prosthetic robots is to use the human joints’ parameters, especially their impedance. A series of experiments were conducted to estimate the stochastic mechanical impedance of the human ankle when muscles were fully relaxed and co-contracting antagonistically. A rehabilitation robot for the ankle, Anklebot, was employed to provide torque perturbations to the ankle. The experiments were performed in two different configurations, one with relaxed muscles, and one with 10% of maximum voluntary contraction (MVC). Surface electromyography (sEMG) was used to monitor muscle activation levels and these sEMG signals were displayed to subjects who attempted to maintain them constant. Time histories of ankle torques and angles in the lateral/medial (LM) directions, inversion-eversion (IE), and dorsiflexionplantarflexion (DP) were recorded. Linear time-invariant transfer functions between the measured torques and angles were estimated providing an estimate of ankle mechanical impedance. High coherence was observed over a frequency range up to 30 Hz. The main effect of muscle activation was to increase the magnitude of ankle mechanical impedance in all degrees of freedom of the ankle. Another experiment compared the three-dimensional angles of the ankle during step turn and straight walking. These angles were measured to be used for developing the control strategy of the ankle-foot prosthesis. An infrared camera system was used to track the trajectories and angles of the foot and leg. The combined phases of heel strike and loading response, mid stance, and terminal stance and pre-swing were determined and used to measure the average angles at each combined phase. The Range of motion (ROM) in IE increased during turning while ML rotation decreased and DP changed the least. During the turning step, ankle displacement in DP started with similar angles to straight walk and progressively showed less plantarflexion. In IE, the ankle showed increased inversion leaning the body toward the inside of the turn. ML rotation initiated with an increased medial rotation during the step turn relative to the straight walk transitioning to increased lateral rotation at the toe off. A prototype ankle-foot prosthesis capable of controlling both DP and IE using a cable driven mechanism was developed and assessed as part of a feasibility study. The design is capable of reproducing the angles required for straight walk and step turn; generates 712N of lifting force in plantarflexion, and shows passive stiffness comparable to a nonload bearing ankle impedance. To evaluate the performance of the ankle-foot prosthesis, a circular treadmill was developed to mimic human gait during steering. Preliminary results show that the device can appropriately simulate human gait with loading and unloading the ankle joint during the gait in circular paths.

PROOF OF CONCEPT PROTOTYPE FOR A RAILROAD PEDESTRIAN WARNING SYSTEM USING WIRELESS SENSOR NETWORKS

Wireless sensor network is an emerging research topic due to its vast and ever-growing applications. Wireless sensor networks are made up of small nodes whose main goal is to monitor, compute and transmit data. The nodes are basically made up of low powered microcontrollers, wireless transceiver chips, sensors to monitor their environment and a power source. The applications of wireless sensor networks range from basic household applications, such as health monitoring, appliance control and security to military application, such as intruder detection. The wide spread application of wireless sensor networks has brought to light many research issues such as battery efficiency, unreliable routing protocols due to node failures, localization issues and security vulnerabilities. This report will describe the hardware development of a fault tolerant routing protocol for railroad pedestrian warning system. The protocol implemented is a peer to peer multi-hop TDMA based protocol for nodes arranged in a linear zigzag chain arrangement. The basic working of the protocol was derived from Wireless Architecture for Hard Real-Time Embedded Networks (WAHREN).

DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECOCAR 3 PROPOSAL AND GUIDELINES FOR MODELING AND DESIGN IN YEAR ONE OF ECOCAR 3

This report summarizes the work done for the Vehicle Powertrain Modeling and Design Problem Proposal portion of the EcoCAR3 proposal as specified in the Request for Proposal from Argonne National Laboratory. The results of the modeling exercises presented in the proposal showed that: An average conventional vehicle powered by a combustion engine could not meet the energy consumption target when the engine was sized to meet the acceleration target, due the relatively low thermal efficiency of the spark ignition engine. A battery electric vehicle could not meet the required range target of 320 km while keeping the vehicle weight below the gross vehicle weight rating of 2000 kg. This was due to the low energy density of the batteries which necessitated a large, and heavy, battery pack to provide enough energy to meet the range target. A series hybrid electric vehicle has the potential to meet the acceleration and energy consumption parameters when the components are optimally sized. A parallel hybrid electric vehicle has less energy conversion losses than a series hybrid electric vehicle which results in greater overall efficiency, lower energy consumption, and less emissions. For EcoCAR3, Michigan Tech proposes to develop a plug-in parallel hybrid vehicle (PPHEV) powered by a small Diesel engine operating on B20 Bio-Diesel fuel. This architecture was chosen over other options due to its compact design, lower cost, and its ability to provide performance levels and energy efficiency that meet or exceed the design targets. While this powertrain configuration requires a more complex control system and strategy than others, the student engineering team at Michigan Tech has significant recent experience with this architecture and has confidence that it will perform well in the events planned for the EcoCAR3 competition.

Exercise for osteoarthritis of the hip

BACKGROUND: Current international treatment guidelines recommending therapeutic exercise for people with symptomatic hip OA report are based on expert opinion only. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether land-based therapeutic exercise is beneficial for people with hip OA in terms of reduced joint pain and/or improved physical function. SEARCH STRATEGY: Five databases were searched from 1966 up until August 2008. SELECTION CRITERIA: All randomised controlled trials (RCTs) recruiting people with hip OA and comparing some form of land-based therapeutic exercise (as opposed to exercises conducted in the water) with a non-exercise group. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Three reviewers independently extracted data and assessed methodological quality. All analyses were conducted on continuous outcomes. MAIN RESULTS: Combining the results of the five included RCTs demonstrated a small treatment effect for pain, but no benefit in terms of improved self-reported physical function. Only one of these five RCTs exclusively recruited people with symptomatic hip OA. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The limited number and small sample size of the included RCTs restricts the confidence that can be attributed to these results. Adequately powered RCTs evaluating exercise programs specifically designed for people with symptomatic hip OA need to be conducted.

Cisplatin versus cisplatin plus doxorubicin for standard-risk hepatoblastoma

BACKGROUND: Preoperative cisplatin alone may be as effective as cisplatin plus doxorubicin in standard-risk hepatoblastoma (a tumor involving three or fewer sectors of the liver that is associated with an alpha-fetoprotein level of >100 ng per milliliter). METHODS: Children with standard-risk hepatoblastoma who were younger than 16 years of age were eligible for inclusion in the study. After they received one cycle of cisplatin (80 mg per square meter of body-surface area per 24 hours), we randomly assigned patients to receive cisplatin (every 14 days) or cisplatin plus doxorubicin administered in three preoperative cycles and two postoperative cycles. The primary outcome was the rate of complete resection, and the trial was powered to test the noninferiority of cisplatin alone (<10% difference in the rate of complete resection). RESULTS: Between June 1998 and December 2006, 126 patients were randomly assigned to receive cisplatin and 129 were randomly assigned to receive cisplatin plus doxorubicin. The rate of complete resection was 95% in the cisplatin-alone group and 93% in the cisplatin-doxorubicin group in the intention-to-treat analysis (difference, 1.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -4.1 to 7.0); these rates were 99% and 95%, respectively, in the per-protocol analysis. Three-year event-free survival and overall survival were, respectively, 83% (95% CI, 77 to 90) and 95% (95% CI, 91 to 99) in the cisplatin group, and 85% (95% CI, 79 to 92) and 93% (95% CI, 88 to 98) in the cisplatin-doxorubicin group (median follow-up, 46 months). Acute grade 3 or 4 adverse events were more frequent with combination therapy (74.4% vs. 20.6%). CONCLUSIONS: As compared with cisplatin plus doxorubicin, cisplatin monotherapy achieved similar rates of complete resection and survival among children with standard-risk hepatoblastoma. Doxorubicin can be safely omitted from the treatment of standard-risk hepatoblastoma. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00003912.)

Treatment of acute renal failure in the intensive care unit: lower costs by intermittent dialysis than continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration

Intermittent and continuous renal replacement therapies (RRTs) are available for the treatment of acute renal failure (ARF) in the intensive care unit (ICU). Although at present there are no adequately powered survival studies, available data suggest that both methods are equal with respect to patient outcome. Therefore, cost comparison between techniques is important for selecting the modality. Expenditures were prospectively assessed as a secondary end point during a controlled, randomized trial comparing intermittent hemodialysis (IHD) with continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration (CVVHDF). The outcome of the primary end points of this trial, that is, ICU and in-hospital mortality, has been previously published. One hundred twenty-five patients from a Swiss university hospital ICU were randomized either to CVVHDF or IHD. Out of these, 42 (CVVHDF) and 34 (IHD) were available for cost analysis. Patients' characteristics, delivered dialysis dose, duration of stay in the ICU or hospital, mortality rates, and recovery of renal function were not different between the two groups. Detailed 24-h time and material consumption protocols were available for 369 (CVVHDF) and 195 (IHD) treatment days. The mean daily duration of CVVHDF was 19.5 +/- 3.2 h/day, resulting in total expenditures of Euro 436 +/- 21 (21% for human resources and 79% for technical devices). For IHD (mean 3.0 +/- 0.4 h/treatment), the costs were lower (Euro 268 +/- 26), with a larger proportion for human resources (45%). Nursing time spent for CVVHDF was 113 +/- 50 min, and 198 +/- 63 min per IHD treatment. Total costs for RRT in ICU patients with ARF were lower when treated with IHD than with CVVHDF, and have to be taken into account for the selection of the method of RRT in ARF on the ICU.

The Prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular Events of ischemic origin with teRutroban in patients with a history oF ischemic strOke or tRansient ischeMic attack (PERFORM) study: baseline characteristics of the population

BACKGROUND: The Prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular Events of ischemic origin with teRutroban in patients with a history oF ischemic strOke or tRansient ischeMic attack (PERFORM) study is an international double-blind, randomized controlled trial designed to investigate the superiority of the specific TP receptor antagonist terutroban (30 mg/day) over aspirin (100 mg/day), in reducing cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events in patients with a recent history of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack. Here we describe the baseline characteristics of the population. METHODS AND RESULTS: Parameters recorded at baseline included vital signs, risk factors, medical history, and concomitant treatments, as well as stroke subtype, stroke-associated disability on the modified Rankin scale, and scores on scales for cognitive function and dependency. Eight hundred and two centers in 46 countries recruited a total of 19,119 patients between February 2006 and April 2008. The population is evenly distributed and is not dominated by any one country or region. The mean +/- SD age was 67.2 +/- 7.9 years, 63% were male, and 83% Caucasian; 83% had hypertension, and about half the population smoked or had quit smoking. Ninety percent of the qualifying events were ischemic stroke, 67% of which were classified as atherothrombotic or likely atherothrombotic (pure or coexisting with another cause). Modified Rankin scale scores showed slight or no disability in 83% of the population, while the scores on the Mini-Mental State Examination, Isaacs' Set Test, Zazzo's Cancellation Test, and the instrumental activities of daily living scale showed a good level of cognitive function and autonomy. CONCLUSIONS: The PERFORM study population is homogeneous in terms of demographic and disease characteristics. With 19,119 patients, the PERFORM study is powered to test the superiority of terutroban over aspirin in the secondary prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events in patients with a recent history of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack.

Effect of initial treatment strategy on survival of patients with advanced-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Several treatment strategies are available for adults with advanced-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma, but studies assessing two alternative standards of care-increased dose bleomycin, etoposide, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone (BEACOPPescalated), and doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (ABVD)-were not powered to test differences in overall survival. To guide treatment decisions in this population of patients, we did a systematic review and network meta-analysis to identify the best initial treatment strategy. METHODS We searched the Cochrane Library, Medline, and conference proceedings for randomised controlled trials published between January, 1980, and June, 2013, that assessed overall survival in patients with advanced-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma given BEACOPPbaseline, BEACOPPescalated, BEACOPP variants, ABVD, cyclophosphamide (mechlorethamine), vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone (C[M]OPP), hybrid or alternating chemotherapy regimens with ABVD as the backbone (eg, COPP/ABVD, MOPP/ABVD), or doxorubicin, vinblastine, mechlorethamine, vincristine, bleomycin, etoposide, and prednisone combined with radiation therapy (the Stanford V regimen). We assessed studies for eligibility, extracted data, and assessed their quality. We then pooled the data and used a Bayesian random-effects model to combine direct comparisons with indirect evidence. We also reconstructed individual patient survival data from published Kaplan-Meier curves and did standard random-effects Poisson regression. Results are reported relative to ABVD. The primary outcome was overall survival. FINDINGS We screened 2055 records and identified 75 papers covering 14 eligible trials that assessed 11 different regimens in 9993 patients, providing 59 651 patient-years of follow-up. 1189 patients died, and the median follow-up was 5·9 years (IQR 4·9-6·7). Included studies were of high methodological quality, and between-trial heterogeneity was negligible (τ(2)=0·01). Overall survival was highest in patients who received six cycles of BEACOPPescalated (HR 0·38, 95% credibility interval [CrI] 0·20-0·75). Compared with a 5 year survival of 88% for ABVD, the survival benefit for six cycles of BEACOPPescalated is 7% (95% CrI 3-10)-ie, a 5 year survival of 95%. Reconstructed individual survival data showed that, at 5 years, BEACOPPescalated has a 10% (95% CI 3-15) advantage over ABVD in overall survival. INTERPRETATION Six cycles of BEACOPPescalated significantly improves overall survival compared with ABVD and other regimens, and thus we recommend this treatment strategy as standard of care for patients with access to the appropriate supportive care.