Regional IAM: analysis of risk-adjusted costs and benefits of climate policies

23 p.

The economics of hydro-meteorological disasters: approaching the estimation of the total costs

21 p.

Climate Change and Its Socioeconomic Importance

25 p.

The Costs of Drought: the Exceptional 2007-2008 Case of Barcelona

35 p.

Essays on Correlated Equilibrium and Voter Turnout

This thesis consists of three essays in the areas of political economy and game theory, unified by their focus on the effects of pre-play communication on equilibrium outcomes.

Communication is fundamental to elections. Chapter 2 extends canonical voter turnout models, where citizens, divided into two competing parties, choose between costly voting and abstaining, to include any form of communication, and characterizes the resulting set of Aumann's correlated equilibria. In contrast to previous research, high-turnout equilibria exist in large electorates and uncertain environments. This difference arises because communication can coordinate behavior in such a way that citizens find it incentive compatible to follow their correlated signals to vote more. The equilibria have expected turnout of at least twice the size of the minority for a wide range of positive voting costs.

In Chapter 3 I introduce a new equilibrium concept, called subcorrelated equilibrium, which fills the gap between Nash and correlated equilibrium, extending the latter to multiple mediators. Subcommunication equilibrium similarly extends communication equilibrium for incomplete information games. I explore the properties of these solutions and establish an equivalence between a subset of subcommunication equilibria and Myerson's quasi-principals' equilibria. I characterize an upper bound on expected turnout supported by subcorrelated equilibrium in the turnout game.

Chapter 4, co-authored with Thomas Palfrey, reports a new study of the effect of communication on voter turnout using a laboratory experiment. Before voting occurs, subjects may engage in various kinds of pre-play communication through computers. We study three communication treatments: No Communication, a control; Public Communication, where voters exchange public messages with all other voters, and Party Communication, where messages are exchanged only within one's own party. Our results point to a strong interaction effect between the form of communication and the voting cost. With a low voting cost, party communication increases turnout, while public communication decreases turnout. The data are consistent with correlated equilibrium play. With a high voting cost, public communication increases turnout. With communication, we find essentially no support for the standard Nash equilibrium turnout predictions.

Death or taxes? The political economy of sanitation expenditure in nineteenth-century Britain

This thesis consists of three papers studying the relationship between democratic reform, expenditure on sanitation public goods and mortality in Britain in the second half of the nineteenth century. During this period decisions over spending on critical public goods such as water supply and sewer systems were made by locally elected town councils, leading to extensive variation in the level of spending across the country. This dissertation uses new historical data to examine the political factors determining that variation, and the consequences for mortality rates.

The first substantive chapter describes the spread of government sanitation expenditure, and analyzes the factors that determined towns' willingness to invest. The results show the importance of towns' financial constraints, both in terms of the available tax base and access to borrowing, in limiting the level of expenditure. This suggests that greater involvement by Westminster could have been very effective in expediting sanitary investment. There is little evidence, however, that democratic reform was an important driver of greater expenditure.

Chapter 3 analyzes the effect of extending voting rights to the poor on government public goods spending. A simple model predicts that the rich and the poor will desire lower levels of public goods expenditure than the middle class, and so extensions of the right to vote to the poor will be associated with lower spending. This prediction is tested using plausibly exogenous variation in the extent of the franchise. The results strongly support the theoretical prediction: expenditure increased following relatively small extensions of the franchise, but fell once more than approximately 50% of the adult male population held the right to vote.

Chapter 4 tests whether the sanitary expenditure was effective in combating the high mortality rates following the Industrial Revolution. The results show that increases in urban expenditure on sanitation-water supply, sewer systems and streets-was extremely effective in reducing mortality from cholera and diarrhea.

A comparison of the costs of operation of the motor bus, Birney safety car, and trolley bus on the local transportation routes in Pasadena

With the installation by the Pacific Electric Railway of a bus system in Pasadena to supplant most of its trolley lines, the problem of the comparison of the costs of the two systems naturally presented itself. The study here undertaken was originally started as just a comparison of the motor bus and Birney Safety Car, but as the work progressed it seemed advisable to include the trolley bus as well - a method of transportation that is comparatively new as far as development is concerned, but which seems to be finding increasing favor in the East.

From social to political. New forms of mobilization and democratization. Conference proceedings

In the recent evolution of contemporary social movements three phases can be identified. The first phase is marked by the labour movement and the systemic importance attributed to the labour conflict in industrial societies. This conflict has been interpreted as a consequence of the shortcoming of social integration mechanisms by Emile Durkheim, as a rational conflict by entrepreneurs’ and workers’ interests by Max Wener, and as a central class struggle for the transformation of society by Karl Marx. The second phase in this development was led by the new social movements of the post-industrial society of the 1960s and 1970s’ students, women and environmentalist movements. Two new analytical perspectives have explained these movements’ meaning and actions. Resource mobilization theory (McAdam and Tilly) has focuses on rational attitudes and conflicts. Actionalist sociology, in turn, has identified the new protagonists of social conflicts that replaced the labour movement in postindustrial societies. The third phase emerges in a world characterized by the ascendance of markets, the increasingly prominent role of financial capital flows, the closure of communities, and fundamentalism. In this context, human rights and pro-democratization movements constitute alternatives to global domination and the systemic conditioning of individual and groups.

Sistema Único de Saúde: de que sistema se trata?

Constata-se que a reforma sanitária brasileira representa um avanço na direção de uma concepção avançada de sistema de saúde. Entretanto o SUS, com toda a materialidade das reformas ao nível macro induzidas a partir dos avanços na legislação, a implantação da regionalização e hierarquização da assistência, e dos instrumentos de gestão, assim como todas as grandes organizações modernas, padece de problemas de coordenação na operação de suas ações. Este trabalho pretende discutir as possibilidades e limites das mudanças organizacionais induzidas pela implementação do SUS na configuração dos sistemas locoregionais de saúde, à luz das experiências internacionais e das contribuições mais recentes das teorias organizacionais, no contexto da transição do fordismo à acumulação flexível. A partir do referencial da teoria dos sistemas, considera-se a contribuição das teorias organizacionais fordistas, pós-fordistas e pós-modernistas na especificidade do campo da saúde coletiva, para discutir a efetividade dos seus subsistemas cibernéticos do SUS: controle, avaliação, regulação, auditoria e vigilância em saúde, no complexo contexto da configuração do poder deste setor. Verifica-se que o SUS, constituído a partir de culturas organizacionais fordistas, do antigo INAMPS e da Saúde Pública tradicional, não tem obtido êxito em configurar estruturas organizacionais competentes, na medida em que reproduz os modelos tradicionais nos seus sistemas de controle. Esta dificuldade em parte deve-se ao momento histórico, que fez coincidir o momento dos avanços na legislação, em direção à ampliação do direito à saúde, com o momento das reestruturações dos aparelhos estatais decorrente da crise global do modo de produção fordista, e com as profundas transformações demográficas, epidemiológicas e da tecnologia da assistência médica. Por outro lado, a disponibilidade de soluções pósfordistas propicia um padrão para a conformação de novas regras e novos modos de regulação do sistema de saúde, que induzam a comportamentos auto-reguladores por parte dos prestadores de serviços de saúde, considerando as metas de equidade e de melhoria da saúde da população. Conclui-se que a necessária reforma do setor saúde demanda o fortalecimento de uma tecno-burocracia protegida contra injunções político-partidárias, que possibilite a incubação uma cultura organizacional profissional em todas as esferas de governo e níveis de gestão, que incentive um trabalho em saúde competente e moralmente comprometido com as finalidades do SUS nesse país.

Blue frontiers: managing the environmental costs of aquaculture

The report begins with an overview of the current status of world aquaculture. It then goes on to describe an approach for estimating the current combined biophysical resource demands of aquaculture for producer countries and regions. Following a comparison of these results with those available for other animal food production sectors the report then examines the consequences of likely future trends in production on the environmental impacts of aquaculture. Finally, the policy implications of the report’s findings are discussed along with the research agenda that should be pursued to meet the challenge of sustainable food production.

Political Institutions, Technology and Growth: a dynamic panel approach

This paper investigates whether the effect of political institutions on sectoral economic performance is determined by the level of technological development of industries. Building on previous studies on the linkages among political institutions, technology and economic growth, we employ the dynamic panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator for a sample of 4,134 country-industries from 61 industries and 89 countries over the 1990-2010 period. Our main findings suggest that changes of political institutions towards higher levels of democracy, political rights and civil liberties enhance economic growth in technologically developed industries. On the contrary, the same institutional changes might retard economic growth of those industries that are below a technological development threshold. Overall, these results give evidence of a technologically conditioned nature of political institutions to be growth-promoting.

Negociar direitos? : legislação trabalhista e reforma neoliberal no governo FHC (1995-2002)

Ao longo do século XX, o Direito do Trabalho esteve associado a um arranjo político e social cujos sentidos estavam vinculados, entre outros aspectos, à civilização das relações de classe e à reprodução do capitalismo com democracia, no âmbito dos Estados nacionais. O propósito desta pesquisa é investigar como ocorreu o processo de deslocamento e reinterpretação desses sentidos (equivalente à codificação da razão do mais forte), no contexto da forte hegemonia política da coalizão de centro-direita que governou o país entre 1995 e 2002. Nesse período, o Poder Executivo Federal, as principais organizações patronais, setores importantes da mídia impressa e a Força Sindical estiveram empenhados na promoção de profunda alteração dos traços centrais do modelo brasileiro de relações de trabalho, no qual a lei é mais importante na definição dos direitos substantivos do trabalho do que os contratos coletivos. Para justificar politicamente essas alterações, o Poder Executivo e seus apoiadores apontaram a responsabilidade do modelo legislado pelos elevados custos do emprego formal, a perda de competitividade da indústria, o aumento da informalidade e do desemprego durante o governo FHC. Por meio da leitura das justificativas dos projetos encaminhados ao Congresso Nacional pelo Poder Executivo, das manifestações de suas principais lideranças e dos apoiadores na mídia e no meio sindical, a pesquisa busca interpretar o sentido político dessa leitura, apresentada como se fosse solução técnica e modernizante para uma legislação que estaria ultrapassada. Consideramos que a reforma trabalhista tinha claros propósitos políticos pois, além de repassar aos trabalhadores os custos do ajuste econômico nos anos 90, permitiu justificar na cena pública a retração do papel do Estado, bem como fortalecer o apoio de setores importantes do patronato a esse projeto político.

Fisheries co-management and transaction costs

Fisheries co-management is increasingly seen as a solution to the problems of resource use conflicts and overexploitation. The importance of transactions costs may not have been given adequate attention. The transaction costs are 1) information costs, 2) collective decisionmaking tools, and 3) collective operational costs. The various components of transaction costs of fisheries co-management systems are described in this paper. These costs need to be determined for evaluating the feasibility of a co-managed fishery compared to a centrally managed one.

Anticipated impacts of recent political changes on fisheries management in South Africa

South Africa's marine resources are essentially fully exploited and in some cases over exploited. The Government of National Unity has embarked on the ambitious Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) to: meet the basic needs; develop the country's human resources; build economy; and democratize the state and society. Although fisheries can only be expected to play a minor role in contributing to RDP, the Programme have a role to play in managing South Africa's living marine resources. The role of RDP in fisheries management is presented together with fisheries management approaches to help achieve the aims of the RDP.