An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation: Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon cycle projections

An Ensemble Kalman Filter is applied to assimilate observed tracer fields in various combinations in the Bern3D ocean model. Each tracer combination yields a set of optimal transport parameter values that are used in projections with prescribed CO2 stabilization pathways. The assimilation of temperature and salinity fields yields a too vigorous ventilation of the thermocline and the deep ocean, whereas the inclusion of CFC-11 and radiocarbon improves the representation of physical and biogeochemical tracers and of ventilation time scales. Projected peak uptake rates and cumulative uptake of CO2 by the ocean are around 20% lower for the parameters determined with CFC-11 and radiocarbon as additional target compared to those with salinity and temperature only. Higher surface temperature changes are simulated in the Greenland–Norwegian–Iceland Sea and in the Southern Ocean when CFC-11 is included in the Ensemble Kalman model tuning. These findings highlights the importance of ocean transport calibration for the design of near-term and long-term CO2 emission mitigation strategies and for climate projections.

Effects of Combined Bevacizumab and Paclitaxel on Tumor Interstitial Fluid Pressure in a Preclinical Breast Cancer Model

Effects of Combined Bevacizumab and Paclitaxel on Tumor Interstitial Fluid Pressure in a Preclinical Breast Cancer Model by Ricardo H. Alvarez Several mechanisms of cell resistance are often accountable for unsuccessful chemotherapy against cancer. Another reason, which has received increased attention, is the inefficient transport of anticancer drugs into tumor tissue. These impaired transports of chemotherapy into the tumor have been attributed to abnormal microvasculature and to pathologically increased tumor hypertension also called: interstitial fluid pressure (IFP). The pathophysiological processes leading to elevated tumor IFP are poorly understood. Here, in a preclinical breast cancer model, it is argued that a condition of raised IFP is a major factor in preventing optimal access of systemically administered chemotherapy agents. In our experimental model, we used a GILM2 human breast cancer in xenografts; mice were treated with different doses of paclitaxel –a widely used antimicrotubular agent, and bevacizumab –monoclonal antibody against vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). The proposed research project is designed to test the hypothesis that paclitaxel in combination with bevacizumab decreases the tumor IPF by restoring tumor permeability and increasing chemotherapy delivery. We demonstrated that the combination of paclitaxel and bevacizumab produced greater tumor control than either agent given alone and this combination reduced the IFP, producing an increment of 75% of apoptosis compared with the control arm. In addition, the intra-tumor paclitaxel quantification by liquid chromatography/Mass Spectrometry (LC/MS) demonstrated that lower dose of both agents showed a synergistic effect compared with high dose of treatment, where there is no significantly increase of paclitaxel into the tumor. These preclinical results are likely to have broad implications for the utility of anti-angiogenic therapies alone and in combination with chemotherapeutic agents.

Lamb Temporal Bone as a Surgical Training Model of Round Window Cochlear Implant Electrode Insertion

OBJECTIVE The preservation of residual hearing in cochlear implantation opens the door for optimal functional results. This atraumatic surgical technique requires training; however, the traditional human cadaveric temporal bones have become less available or unattainable in some institutions. This study investigates the suitability of an alternative model, using cadaveric lamb temporal bone, for surgical training of atraumatic round window electrode insertion. INTERVENTION A total of 14 lamb temporal bones were dissected for cochlear implantation by four surgeons. After mastoidectomy, visualization, and drilling of the round window niche, an atraumatic round window insertion of a Medel Flex24 electrode was performed. Electrode insertion depth and position were verified by computed tomography scans. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE All cochleas were successfully implanted using the atraumatic round window approach; however, surgical access through the mastoid was substantially different when compared human anatomy. The mean number of intracochlear electrode contacts was 6.5 (range, 4-11) and the mean insertion depth 10.4 mm (range, 4-20 mm), which corresponds to a mean angular perimodiolar insertion depth of 229 degrees (range 67-540°). Full insertion of the electrode was not possible because of the smaller size of the lamb cochlea in comparison to that of the human. CONCLUSION The lamb temporal bone model is well suited as a training model for atraumatic cochlear implantation at the level of the round window. The minimally pneumatized mastoid as well as the smaller cochlea can help prepare a surgeon for difficult cochlear implantations. Because of substantial differences to human anatomy, it is not an adequate training model for other surgical techniques such as mastoidectomy and posterior tympanotomy as well as full electrode insertion.

Enhanced in vivo angiogenesis within a model tissue engineered construct using biodegradable microspheres containing encapsulated VEGF

Introduction. Tissue engineering techniques offer a potential means to develop a tissue engineered construct (TEC) for the treatment of tissue and organ deficiencies. However, a lack of adequate vascularization is a limiting factor in the development of most viable engineered tissues. Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) could aid in the development of a viable vascular network within TECs. The long-term goals of this research are to develop clinically relevant, appropriately vascularized TECs for use in humans. This project tested the hypothesis that the delivery of VEGF via controlled release from biodegradable microspheres would increase the vascular density and rate of angiogenesis within a model TEC. ^ Materials and methods. Biodegradable VEGF-encapsulated microspheres were manufactured using a novel method entitled the Solid Encapsulation/Single Emulsion/Solvent Extraction technique. Using a PLGA/PEG polymer blend, microspheres were manufactured and characterized in vitro. A model TEC using fibrin was designed for in vivo tissue engineering experimentation. At the appropriate timepoint, the TECs were explanted, and stained and quantified for CD31 using a novel semi-automated thresholding technique. ^ Results. In vitro results show the microspheres could be manufactured, stored, degrade, and release biologically active VEGF. The in vivo investigations revealed that skeletal muscle was the optimal implantation site as compared to dermis. In addition, the TECs containing fibrin with VEGF demonstrated significantly more angiogenesis than the controls. The TECs containing VEGF microspheres displayed a significant increase in vascular density by day 10. Furthermore, TECs containing VEGF microspheres had a significantly increased relative rate of angiogenesis from implantation day 5 to day 10. ^ Conclusions. A novel technique for producing microspheres loaded with biologically active proteins was developed. A defined concentration of microspheres can deliver a quantifiable level of VEGF with known release kinetics. A novel model TEC for in vivo tissue engineering investigations was developed. VEGF and VEGF microspheres stimulate angiogenesis within the model TEC. This investigation determined that biodegradable rhVEGF 165-encapsulated microspheres increased the vascular density and relative rate of angiogenesis within a model TEC. Future applications could include the incorporation of microvascular fragments into the model TEC and the incorporation of specific tissues, such as fat or bone. ^

The Optimal Capital Structure of Banks: Balancing Deposit Insurance, Capital Requirements and Tax-Advantaged Debt

The capital structure and regulation of financial intermediaries is an important topic for practitioners, regulators and academic researchers. In general, theory predicts that firms choose their capital structures by balancing the benefits of debt (e.g., tax and agency benefits) against its costs (e.g., bankruptcy costs). However, when traditional corporate finance models have been applied to insured financial institutions, the results have generally predicted corner solutions (all equity or all debt) to the capital structure problem. This paper studies the impact and interaction of deposit insurance, capital requirements and tax benefits on a bankÇs choice of optimal capital structure. Using a contingent claims model to value the firm and its associated claims, we find that there exists an interior optimal capital ratio in the presence of deposit insurance, taxes and a minimum fixed capital standard. Banks voluntarily choose to maintain capital in excess of the minimum required in order to balance the risks of insolvency (especially the loss of future tax benefits) against the benefits of additional debt. Because we derive a closed- form solution, our model provides useful insights on several current policy debates including revisions to the regulatory framework for GSEs, tax policy in general and the tax exemption for credit unions.

The Making of Optimal and Consistent Policy: An Analytical Framework for Monetary Models

This paper shows that optimal policy and consistent policy outcomes require the use of control-theory and game-theory solution techniques. While optimal policy and consistent policy often produce different outcomes even in a one-period model, we analyze consistent policy and its outcome in a simple model, finding that the cause of the inconsistency with optimal policy traces to inconsistent targets in the social loss function. As a result, the central bank should adopt a loss function that differs from the social loss function. Carefully designing the central bank s loss function with consistent targets can harmonize optimal and consistent policy. This desirable result emerges from two observations. First, the social loss function reflects a normative process that does not necessarily prove consistent with the structure of the microeconomy. Thus, the social loss function cannot serve as a direct loss function for the central bank. Second, an optimal loss function for the central bank must depend on the structure of that microeconomy. In addition, this paper shows that control theory provides a benchmark for institution design in a game-theoretical framework.

The Making of Optimal and Consistent Policy: An Implementation Theory Framework for Monetary Policy

This paper shows that optimal policy and consistent policy outcomes require the use of control-theory and game-theory solution techniques. While optimal policy and consistent policy often produce different outcomes even in a one-period model, we analyze consistent policy and its outcome in a simple model, finding that the cause of the inconsistency with optimal policy traces to inconsistent targets in the social loss function. As a result, the social loss function cannot serve as a direct loss function for the central bank. Accordingly, we employ implementation theory to design a central bank loss function (mechanism design) with consistent targets, while the social loss function serves as a social welfare criterion. That is, with the correct mechanism design for the central bank loss function, optimal policy and consistent policy become identical. In other words, optimal policy proves implementable (consistent).

Consistent Targets and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Note

Kydland and Prescott (1977) develop a simple model of monetary policy making, where the central bank needs some commitment technique to achieve optimal monetary policy over time. Although not their main focus, they illustrate the difference between consistent and optimal policy in a sequential-decision one-period world. We employ the analytical method developed in Yuan and Miller (2005), whereby the government appoints a central bank with consistent targets or delegates consistent targets to the central bank. Thus, the central bank s welfare function differs from the social welfare function, which cause consistent policy to prove optimal.

A Principal-Agent Model of Contracting in Major League Baseball

Traditional economic analyses of the reserve clause in major league baseball view it as having arisen from the superior bargaining of owners compared to players. This article interprets it instead as promoting efficient investment by teams in player development, given the transferability of player skills to other teams. Using a principal-agent framework, the article shows that limited player mobility emerges as part of the optimal contract between players (principals) and teams (agents).

A Note on Optimal Care by Wealth-Constrained Injurers

This paper clarifies the relationship between an injurer's wealth level and his care choice by highlighting the distinction between monetary and non-monetary care. When care is non-monetary, wealth-constrained injurers generally take less than optimal care, and care is increasing in their wealth level under both strict liability and negligence. In contrast, when care is monetary, injurers may take too much or too little care under strict liability, and care is not strictly increasing in injurer wealth. Under negligence, the relationship between injurer care and wealth is similar in the two formulations. However, when litigation costs are added to the model, the relationship between injurer care and wealth becomes non-monotonic under both liability rules.

Optimal Central Banker Contracts and Common Agency

This paper considers the contacting approach to central banking in the context of a simple common agency model. The recent literature on optimal contracts suggests that the political principal of the central bank can design the appropriate incentive schemes that remedy for time-inconsistency problems in monetary policy. The effectiveness of such contracts, however, requires a central banker that attaches a positive weight to the incentive scheme. As a result, delegating monetary policy under such circumstances gives rise to the possibility that the central banker may respond to incentive schemes offered by other potential principals. We introduce common agency considerations in the design of optimal central banker contracts. We introduce two principals - society (government) and an interest group, whose objectives conflict with society's and we examine under what circumstances the government-offered or the interest-group-offered contract dominates. Our results largely depend on the type of bias that the interest group contract incorporates. In particular, when the interest group contract incorporates an inflationary bias the outcome depends on the principals' relative concern of the incentive schemes' costs. When the interest group contract incorporates an expansionary bias, however, it always dominates the government contract. A corollary of our results is that central banker contracts aiming to remove the expansionary bias of policymakers should be written explicitly in terms of the perceived bias.

Optimal Test for Parameter Instability When the Unstable Process and the Error Distribution are Unknown

This paper proposes asymptotically optimal tests for unstable parameter process under the feasible circumstance that the researcher has little information about the unstable parameter process and the error distribution, and suggests conditions under which the knowledge of those processes does not provide asymptotic power gains. I first derive a test under known error distribution, which is asymptotically equivalent to LR tests for correctly identified unstable parameter processes under suitable conditions. The conditions are weak enough to cover a wide range of unstable processes such as various types of structural breaks and time varying parameter processes. The test is then extended to semiparametric models in which the underlying distribution in unknown but treated as unknown infinite dimensional nuisance parameter. The semiparametric test is adaptive in the sense that its asymptotic power function is equivalent to the power envelope under known error distribution.

Bayesian doubly optimal group sequential designs for randomized clinical trials

When conducting a randomized comparative clinical trial, ethical, scientific or economic considerations often motivate the use of interim decision rules after successive groups of patients have been treated. These decisions may pertain to the comparative efficacy or safety of the treatments under study, cost considerations, the desire to accelerate the drug evaluation process, or the likelihood of therapeutic benefit for future patients. At the time of each interim decision, an important question is whether patient enrollment should continue or be terminated; either due to a high probability that one treatment is superior to the other, or a low probability that the experimental treatment will ultimately prove to be superior. The use of frequentist group sequential decision rules has become routine in the conduct of phase III clinical trials. In this dissertation, we will present a new Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to the problem of designing a randomized group sequential clinical trial, focusing on two-arm trials with time-to-failure outcomes. Forward simulation is used to obtain optimal decision boundaries for each of a set of possible models. At each interim analysis, we use Bayesian model selection to adaptively choose the model having the largest posterior probability of being correct, and we then make the interim decision based on the boundaries that are optimal under the chosen model. We provide a simulation study to compare this method, which we call Bayesian Doubly Optimal Group Sequential (BDOGS), to corresponding frequentist designs using either O'Brien-Fleming (OF) or Pocock boundaries, as obtained from EaSt 2000. Our simulation results show that, over a wide variety of different cases, BDOGS either performs at least as well as both OF and Pocock, or on average provides a much smaller trial. ^

Design of long-term animal bioassay for low-dose extrapolation using a multistage model

Conventional designs of animal bioassays allocate the same number of animals into control and dose groups to explore the spontaneous and induced tumor incidence rates, respectively. The purpose of such bioassays are (a) to determine whether or not the substance exhibits carcinogenic properties, and (b) if so, to estimate the human response at relatively low doses. In this study, it has been found that the optimal allocation to the experimental groups which, in some sense, minimize the error of the estimated response for low dose extrapolation is associated with the dose level and tumor risk. The number of dose levels has been investigated at the affordable experimental cost. The pattern of the administered dose, 1 MTD, 1/2 MTD, 1/4 MTD,....., etc. plus control, gives the most reasonable arrangement for the low dose extrapolation purpose. The arrangement of five dose groups may make the highest dose trivial. A four-dose design can circumvent this problem and has also one degree of freedom for testing the goodness-of-fit of the response model.^ An example using the data on liver tumors induced in mice in a lifetime study of feeding dieldrin (Walker et al., 1973) is implemented with the methodology. The results are compared with conclusions drawn from other studies. ^

Freshwater runoff for Taylor Slough to Florida Bay for 1965 to 2000 for the FATHOM model

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.