INTERMED predicts non-return to work in an occupational rehabilitation setting for individuals with orthopaedic trauma-Part I

Introduction.- Knowledge of predictors of an unfavourable outcome, e.g. non-return to work after an injury enables to identify patients at risk and to target interventions for modifiable predictors. It has been recently shown that INTERMED; a tool to measure biopsychosocial complexity in four domains (biologic, psychologic, social and care, with a score between 0-60 points) can be useful in this context. The aim of this study was to set up a predictive model for non-return to work using INTERMED in patients in vocational rehabilitation after orthopaedic injury.Patients and methods.- In this longitudinal prospective study, the cohort consisted of 2156 consecutively included inpatients with orthopaedic trauma attending a rehabilitation hospital after a work, traffic or sport related injury. Two years after discharge, a questionnaire regarding return to work was sent (1502 returned their questionnaires). In addition to INTERMED, 18 predictors known at baseline of the rehabilitation were selected based on previous research. A multivariable logistic regression was performed.Results.- In the multivariate model, not-returning to work at 2 years was significantly predicted by the INTERMED: odds-ratio (OR) 1.08 (95% confidence interval, CI [1.06; 1.11]) for a one point increase in scale; by qualified work-status before the injury OR = 0.74, CI (0.54; 0.99), by using French as preferred language OR = 0.60, CI (0.45; 0.80), by upper-extremity injury OR = 1.37, CI (1.03; 1.81), by higher education (> 9 years) OR = 0.74, CI (0.55; 1.00), and by a 10 year increase in age OR = 1.15, CI (1.02; 1.29). The area under the receiver-operator-characteristics curve (ROC)-curve was 0.733 for the full model (INTERMED plus 18 variables).Discussion.- These results confirm that the total score of the INTERMED is a significant predictor for return to work. The full model with 18 predictors combined with the total score of INTERMED has good predictive value. However, the number of variables (19) to measure is high for the use as screening tool in a clinic.

Comparison of clinical and angiographic prognostic risk scores in elderly patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome and referred for percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND: Multiple risk prediction models have been validated in all-age patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI); however, they have not been validated specifically in the elderly. METHODS: We calculated the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) score, the logistic EuroSCORE, the AMIS (Acute Myocardial Infarction Swiss registry) score, and the SYNTAX (Synergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery) score in a consecutive series of 114 patients ≥75 years presenting with ACS and treated with PCI within 24 hours of hospital admission. Patients were stratified according to score tertiles and analysed retrospectively by comparing the lower/mid tertiles as an aggregate group with the higher tertile group. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Secondary endpoints were the composite of death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) at 30 days, and 1-year MACE-free survival. Model discrimination ability was assessed using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Thirty-day mortality was higher in the upper tertile compared with the aggregate lower/mid tertiles according to the logistic EuroSCORE (42% vs 5%; odds ratio [OR] = 14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4-48; p <0.001; AUC = 0.79), the GRACE score (40% vs 4%; OR = 17, 95% CI = 4-64; p <0.001; AUC = 0.80), the AMIS score (40% vs 4%; OR = 16, 95% CI = 4-63; p <0.001; AUC = 0.80), and the SYNTAX score (37% vs 5%; OR = 11, 95% CI = 3-37; p <0.001; AUC = 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: In elderly patients presenting with ACS and referred to PCI within 24 hours of admission, the GRACE score, the EuroSCORE, the AMIS score, and the SYNTAX score predicted 30 day mortality. The predictive value of clinical scores was improved by using them in combination.

Influence of the timing of low-dose aspirin on tolerability of prolonged-release nicotinic acid in patients at elevated cardiovascular risk

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effect of low-dose aspirin administered in the morning or evening on the rate of discontinuation of prolonged-release nicotinic acid (Niaspan) due to flushing in patients at elevated cardiovascular risk. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This was an observational, non-interventional study in patients at elevated cardiovascular risk due to cardiovascular disease or type 2 diabetes. Patients received prolonged-release nicotinic acid and aspirin under the usual care of their physician for 15 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measure was the rate of treatment discontinuation for flushing. Other adverse drug reactions (ADRs) were also recorded. Lipid parameters were also measured. RESULTS: The patient population included 539 subjects (70% male); 36% had type 2 diabetes, 80% had prior cardiovascular disease, and 37% had a family history of cardiovascular disease. The rate of treatment discontinuation due to flushing did not differ (p = 0.3375) between the morning aspirin group (10.6%) and the evening aspirin group (13.8%). The overall incidence of flushing was 57%. Most flushes were of mild or moderate severity and decreases occurred over time in both frequency and intensity. ADRs unrelated to flushing occurred in 6.6% of the morning aspirin group and 7.4% of the evening aspirin group. HDL-cholesterol increased by +21.3% in the overall population, together with moderate improvements in other lipid parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Flushing was the most common ADR with prolonged-release nicotinic acid treatment, as expected. The timing of aspirin administration did not influence the rate of treatment discontinuations for flushing. Marked increases in HDL-cholesterol were observed.

Physicians' estimates of the 10-year cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients

RESUME L'objectif de cette étude est d'évaluer comment de jeunes médecins en formation perçoivent le risque cardiovasculaire de leurs patients hypertendus en se basant sur les recommandations médicales (« guidelines ») et sur leur jugement clinique. Il s'agit d'une étude transversale observationnelle effectuée à la Policlinique Médicale Universitaire de Lausanne (PMU). 200 patients hypertendus ont été inclus dans l'étude ainsi qu'un groupe contrôle de 50 patients non hypertendus présentant au moins un facteur de risque cardiovasculaire. Nous avons comparé le risque cardiovasculaire à 10 ans calculé par un programme informatique basé sur l'équation de Framingham. L'équation a été adaptée pour les médecins par l'OMS-ISH au risque perçu, estimé cliniquement par les médecins. Les résultats de notre étude ont montrés que les médecins sous-estiment le risque cardiovasculaire à 10 ans de leurs patients, comparé au risque calculé selon l'équation de Framingham. La concordance entre les deux méthodes était de 39% pour les patients hypertendus et de 30% pour le groupe contrôle de patients non hypertendus. La sous-estimation du risque. cardiovasculaire pour les patients hypertendus était corrélée au fait qu'ils avaient une tension artérielle systolique stabilisée inférieure a 140 mmHg (OR=2.1 [1.1 ;4.1]). En conclusion, les résultats de cette étude montrent que les jeunes médecins en formation ont souvent une perception incorrecte du risque cardiovasculaire de leurs patients, avec une tendance à sous-estimer ce risque. Toutefois le risque calculé pourrait aussi être légèrement surestimé lorsqu'on applique l'équation de Framingham à la population suisse. Pour mettre en pratique une évaluation systématique des facteurs de risque en médecine de premier recours, un accent plus grand devrait être mis sur l'enseignement de l'évaluation du risque cardiovasculaire ainsi que sur la mise en oeuvre de programme pour l'amélioration de la qualité.

Hyperhomocysteinaemia in young patients with non-arteritic anterior ischaemic optic neuropathy.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Elevated plasma homocysteine is a newly identified vascular risk factor among patients under age 55 years with cerebrovascular, cardiovascular, or peripheral vascular disease. This study sought to evaluate retrospectively the plasma homocysteine status among healthy younger patients with ischaemic optic disc disease. METHODS: 12 non-diabetic patients who had been diagnosed with non-arteritic anterior ischaemic optic neuropathy (NAION) before the age of 50 years were identified from chart review. None had experienced previous ischaemic cerebrovascular, cardiovascular, or peripheral vascular events. Plasma homocysteine, CBC, renal function, vitamin B6, vitamin B12, and folate levels were sampled in the fasting state. RESULTS: Two of 12 patients (17%) had hyperhomocysteinaemia. Both had experienced NAION in both eyes with recurrent episodes. Neither patient was hypertensive nor had a smoking history. One of these two patients had mild hypercholesterolaemia which did not warrant medication. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated plasma homocysteine may be associated with NAION. An evaluation for hyperhomocysteinaemia should be considered in patients with NAION who do not have the typical risk factor such as older age, diabetes, hypertension, or tobacco use. It should also be considered in young patients with bilateral or recurrent attacks of NAION.

Discrete analysis of dividend payments in a non-life insurance portfolio

The process of free reserves in a non-life insurance portfolio as defined in the classical model of risk theory is modified by the introduction of dividend policies that set maximum levels for the accumulation of reserves. The first part of the work formulates the quantification of the dividend payments via the expectation of their current value under diferent hypotheses. The second part presents a solution based on a system of linear equations for discrete dividend payments in the case of a constant dividend barrier, illustrated by solving a specific case.

Non-invasive detection of coronary endothelial response to sequential handgrip exercise in coronary artery disease patients and healthy adults.

OBJECTIVES: Our objective is to test the hypothesis that coronary endothelial function (CorEndoFx) does not change with repeated isometric handgrip (IHG) stress in CAD patients or healthy subjects. BACKGROUND: Coronary responses to endothelial-dependent stressors are important measures of vascular risk that can change in response to environmental stimuli or pharmacologic interventions. The evaluation of the effect of an acute intervention on endothelial response is only valid if the measurement does not change significantly in the short term under normal conditions. Using 3.0 Tesla (T) MRI, we non-invasively compared two coronary artery endothelial function measurements separated by a ten minute interval in healthy subjects and patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). METHODS: Twenty healthy adult subjects and 12 CAD patients were studied on a commercial 3.0 T whole-body MR imaging system. Coronary cross-sectional area (CSA), peak diastolic coronary flow velocity (PDFV) and blood-flow were quantified before and during continuous IHG stress, an endothelial-dependent stressor. The IHG exercise with imaging was repeated after a 10 minute recovery period. RESULTS: In healthy adults, coronary artery CSA changes and blood-flow increases did not differ between the first and second stresses (mean % change ±SEM, first vs. second stress CSA: 14.8%±3.3% vs. 17.8%±3.6%, p = 0.24; PDFV: 27.5%±4.9% vs. 24.2%±4.5%, p = 0.54; blood-flow: 44.3%±8.3 vs. 44.8%±8.1, p = 0.84). The coronary vasoreactive responses in the CAD patients also did not differ between the first and second stresses (mean % change ±SEM, first stress vs. second stress: CSA: -6.4%±2.0% vs. -5.0%±2.4%, p = 0.22; PDFV: -4.0%±4.6% vs. -4.2%±5.3%, p = 0.83; blood-flow: -9.7%±5.1% vs. -8.7%±6.3%, p = 0.38). CONCLUSION: MRI measures of CorEndoFx are unchanged during repeated isometric handgrip exercise tests in CAD patients and healthy adults. These findings demonstrate the repeatability of noninvasive 3T MRI assessment of CorEndoFx and support its use in future studies designed to determine the effects of acute interventions on coronary vasoreactivity.

Family history of cancer and the risk of laryngeal cancer: a case-control study from Italy and Switzerland.

Only limited data is available on the relationship between family history of laryngeal and other neoplasms and laryngeal cancer risk. We investigated the issue using data from a multicentre case-control study conducted in Italy and Switzerland between 1992 and 2009 including 852 cases with histologically confirmed laryngeal cancer and 1970 controls admitted to hospital for acute, non neoplastic conditions. Unconditional logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, study center, education, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking and number of siblings were used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of laryngeal cancer. The multivariate OR was 2.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-5.3) in subjects reporting a first-degree relative with laryngeal cancer, as compared to subjects with no family history. The OR was higher when the relative was diagnosed before 60 years of age (OR = 3.5, 95% CI 1.4-8.8). As compared to subjects without family history, non-smokers, and moderate drinkers, the OR was 37.1 (95% CI 9.9-139.4) for current smokers, heavy drinkers, with family history of laryngeal cancer. Family history of colorectal (OR = 1.5, 95% CI 1.0-2.3) and kidney (OR = 3.8, 95% CI 1.2-12.1) cancer were also associated to an increased risk of laryngeal cancer, while no significant increase in risk was found for family history of cancer at all sites, excluding the larynx (OR = 1.1).

Rationale for consolidation to improve progression-free survival in patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: a review of the evidence.

Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) comprises both indolent forms, including follicular lymphoma (FL) and marginal zone lymphoma (MZL), and aggressive forms, including diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and mantle cell lymphoma (MCL). FL and DLBCL are the most common subtypes of indolent and aggressive NHL, respectively. Although these lymphomas exhibit different clinical behaviors and outcomes, the prognosis is negatively affected in both DLBCL and FL by the lack of a complete response (CR) with standard treatment options. The aim of therapy should therefore be achievement of a CR, which is not only associated with longer progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival times, but is also a prerequisite for a cure, particularly in DLBCL. Consolidation treatment with radioimmunotherapy (RIT) is an innovative treatment approach to increase CR rates. Phase II studies have indicated promising results with yttrium-90 ((90)Y)-ibritumomab tiuxetan and iodine-131 ((131)I)-tositumomab as consolidation following induction therapy for previously untreated patients with advanced FL. More recently, investigators reported a marked increase in CR rates and significant improvements in PFS using standard chemotherapy regimens followed by (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan in a phase III randomized trial in patients with previously untreated FL. Data also suggest that RIT may play a role in the treatment of high-risk DLBCL, with encouraging PFS results from a phase II trial of (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan consolidation following induction with rituximab plus chemotherapy in elderly patients with previously untreated DLBCL. With the higher CR rates and longer PFS times observed in patients with FL and DLBCL, as well as encouraging early data from MZL and MCL consolidation trials, RIT appears to have an important role in the treatment of patients with NHL.

Ultrathin strut biodegradable polymer sirolimus-eluting stent versus durable polymer everolimus-eluting stent for percutaneous coronary revascularisation (BIOSCIENCE): a randomised, single-blind, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Refinements in stent design affecting strut thickness, surface polymer, and drug release have improved clinical outcomes of drug-eluting stents. We aimed to compare the safety and efficacy of a novel, ultrathin strut cobalt-chromium stent releasing sirolimus from a biodegradable polymer with a thin strut durable polymer everolimus-eluting stent. METHODS: We did a randomised, single-blind, non-inferiority trial with minimum exclusion criteria at nine hospitals in Switzerland. We randomly assigned (1:1) patients aged 18 years or older with chronic stable coronary artery disease or acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention to treatment with biodegradable polymer sirolimus-eluting stents or durable polymer everolimus-eluting stents. Randomisation was via a central web-based system and stratified by centre and presence of ST segment elevation myocardial infarction. Patients and outcome assessors were masked to treatment allocation, but treating physicians were not. The primary endpoint, target lesion failure, was a composite of cardiac death, target vessel myocardial infarction, and clinically-indicated target lesion revascularisation at 12 months. A margin of 3·5% was defined for non-inferiority of the biodegradable polymer sirolimus-eluting stent compared with the durable polymer everolimus-eluting stent. Analysis was by intention to treat. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01443104. FINDINGS: Between Feb 24, 2012, and May 22, 2013, we randomly assigned 2119 patients with 3139 lesions to treatment with sirolimus-eluting stents (1063 patients, 1594 lesions) or everolimus-eluting stents (1056 patients, 1545 lesions). 407 (19%) patients presented with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Target lesion failure with biodegradable polymer sirolimus-eluting stents (69 cases; 6·5%) was non-inferior to durable polymer everolimus-eluting stents (70 cases; 6·6%) at 12 months (absolute risk difference -0·14%, upper limit of one-sided 95% CI 1·97%, p for non-inferiority <0·0004). No significant differences were noted in rates of definite stent thrombosis (9 [0·9%] vs 4 [0·4%], rate ratio [RR] 2·26, 95% CI 0·70-7·33, p=0·16). In pre-specified stratified analyses of the primary endpoint, biodegradable polymer sirolimus-eluting stents were associated with improved outcome compared with durable polymer everolimus-eluting stents in the subgroup of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (7 [3·3%] vs 17 [8·7%], RR 0·38, 95% CI 0·16-0·91, p=0·024, p for interaction=0·014). INTERPRETATION: In a patient population with minimum exclusion criteria and high adherence to dual antiplatelet therapy, biodegradable polymer sirolimus-eluting stents were non-inferior to durable polymer everolimus-eluting stents for the combined safety and efficacy outcome target lesion failure at 12 months. The noted benefit in the subgroup of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction needs further study. FUNDING: Clinical Trials Unit, University of Bern, and Biotronik, Bülach, Switzerland.

Self-reported non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy repeatedly assessed by two questions predicts treatment failure in virologically suppressed patients.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to explore the predictive value of longitudinal self-reported adherence data on viral rebound. METHODS: Individuals in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study on combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) with RNA <50 copies/ml over the previous 3 months and who were interviewed about adherence at least once prior to 1 March 2007 were eligible. Adherence was defined in terms of missed doses of cART (0, 1, 2 or >2) in the previous 28 days. Viral rebound was defined as RNA >500 copies/ml. Cox regression models with time-independent and -dependent covariates were used to evaluate time to viral rebound. RESULTS: A total of 2,664 individuals and 15,530 visits were included. Across all visits, missing doses were reported as follows: 1 dose 14.7%, 2 doses 5.1%, >2 doses 3.8% taking <95% of doses 4.5% and missing > or =2 consecutive doses 3.2%. In total, 308 (11.6%) patients experienced viral rebound. After controlling for confounding variables, self-reported non-adherence remained significantly associated with the rate of occurrence of viral rebound (compared with zero missed doses: 1 dose, hazard ratio [HR] 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-1.48; 2 doses, HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.46-3.25; >2 doses, HR 3.66, 95% CI 2.50-5.34). Several variables significantly associated with an increased risk of viral rebound irrespective of adherence were identified: being on a protease inhibitor or triple nucleoside regimen (compared with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor), >5 previous cART regimens, seeing a less-experienced physician, taking co-medication, and a shorter time virally suppressed. CONCLUSIONS: A simple self-report adherence questionnaire repeatedly administered provides a sensitive measure of non-adherence that predicts viral rebound.

Advanced age increases the failure rate of non-operative management of blunt splenic injuries

Introduction: Non-operative management (NOM) of blunt splenic injuries in hemodynamically stable patients is nowadays considered the standard treatment. Material and Methods: The aim was to clarify the criteria used for primary operative management (OM) and planned NOM. Furthermore, the study aimed to identify risk factors for failure of NOM. All adult patients with blunt splenic injuries treated from 2000-2008 were reviewed and a logistic regression analysis employed. Results: There were 206 patients (146 men, 70.9%). Mean age was 38.2 ± 19.1 years. The mean Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 30.9 ± 11.6. The American Association for the Surgery of Trauma (AAST) classification of the splenic injury was: grade I, n = 43 (20.9%); grade II, n = 52 (25.2%); grade III, n = 60 (29.1%), grade IV, n = 42 (20.4%) and grade V, n = 9 (4.4%). 47 patients (22.8%) required immediate surgery (OM). More than 5 units of red cell transfusions (odds ratio [OR] 13.72, P < 0.001), a Glasgow Coma Scale < 11 (OR 9.88, P = 0.009) and age ? 55 years (OR 3.29, P = 0.038) were associated with primary OM. 159 patients (77.2%) qualified for a non-surgical approach (NOM), which was successful in 89.9% (143/159). The overall splenic salvage rate amounted to 69.4% (143/206). Multiple logistic regression analysis found age ? 40 years to be the only factor significantly and independently related to the failure of NOM (OR 13.58, P = 0.001). Conclusion: Advanced age is associated with an increased failure rate of NOM in patients with blunt splenic injuries.

Reliability of methods used for the risk assessment of mixture of micropollutants in aquatic enviromments : from theoretical concepts to field observations

Ces dernières années, de nombreuses recherches ont mis en évidence les effets toxiques des micropolluants organiques pour les espèces de nos lacs et rivières. Cependant, la plupart de ces études se sont focalisées sur la toxicité des substances individuelles, alors que les organismes sont exposés tous les jours à des milliers de substances en mélange. Or les effets de ces cocktails ne sont pas négligeables. Cette thèse de doctorat s'est ainsi intéressée aux modèles permettant de prédire le risque environnemental de ces cocktails pour le milieu aquatique. Le principal objectif a été d'évaluer le risque écologique des mélanges de substances chimiques mesurées dans le Léman, mais aussi d'apporter un regard critique sur les méthodologies utilisées afin de proposer certaines adaptations pour une meilleure estimation du risque. Dans la première partie de ce travail, le risque des mélanges de pesticides et médicaments pour le Rhône et pour le Léman a été établi en utilisant des approches envisagées notamment dans la législation européenne. Il s'agit d'approches de « screening », c'est-à-dire permettant une évaluation générale du risque des mélanges. Une telle approche permet de mettre en évidence les substances les plus problématiques, c'est-à-dire contribuant le plus à la toxicité du mélange. Dans notre cas, il s'agit essentiellement de 4 pesticides. L'étude met également en évidence que toutes les substances, même en trace infime, contribuent à l'effet du mélange. Cette constatation a des implications en terme de gestion de l'environnement. En effet, ceci implique qu'il faut réduire toutes les sources de polluants, et pas seulement les plus problématiques. Mais l'approche proposée présente également un biais important au niveau conceptuel, ce qui rend son utilisation discutable, en dehors d'un screening, et nécessiterait une adaptation au niveau des facteurs de sécurité employés. Dans une deuxième partie, l'étude s'est portée sur l'utilisation des modèles de mélanges dans le calcul de risque environnemental. En effet, les modèles de mélanges ont été développés et validés espèce par espèce, et non pour une évaluation sur l'écosystème en entier. Leur utilisation devrait donc passer par un calcul par espèce, ce qui est rarement fait dû au manque de données écotoxicologiques à disposition. Le but a été donc de comparer, avec des valeurs générées aléatoirement, le calcul de risque effectué selon une méthode rigoureuse, espèce par espèce, avec celui effectué classiquement où les modèles sont appliqués sur l'ensemble de la communauté sans tenir compte des variations inter-espèces. Les résultats sont dans la majorité des cas similaires, ce qui valide l'approche utilisée traditionnellement. En revanche, ce travail a permis de déterminer certains cas où l'application classique peut conduire à une sous- ou sur-estimation du risque. Enfin, une dernière partie de cette thèse s'est intéressée à l'influence que les cocktails de micropolluants ont pu avoir sur les communautés in situ. Pour ce faire, une approche en deux temps a été adoptée. Tout d'abord la toxicité de quatorze herbicides détectés dans le Léman a été déterminée. Sur la période étudiée, de 2004 à 2009, cette toxicité due aux herbicides a diminué, passant de 4% d'espèces affectées à moins de 1%. Ensuite, la question était de savoir si cette diminution de toxicité avait un impact sur le développement de certaines espèces au sein de la communauté des algues. Pour ce faire, l'utilisation statistique a permis d'isoler d'autres facteurs pouvant avoir une influence sur la flore, comme la température de l'eau ou la présence de phosphates, et ainsi de constater quelles espèces se sont révélées avoir été influencées, positivement ou négativement, par la diminution de la toxicité dans le lac au fil du temps. Fait intéressant, une partie d'entre-elles avait déjà montré des comportements similaires dans des études en mésocosmes. En conclusion, ce travail montre qu'il existe des modèles robustes pour prédire le risque des mélanges de micropolluants sur les espèces aquatiques, et qu'ils peuvent être utilisés pour expliquer le rôle des substances dans le fonctionnement des écosystèmes. Toutefois, ces modèles ont bien sûr des limites et des hypothèses sous-jacentes qu'il est important de considérer lors de leur application. - Depuis plusieurs années, les risques que posent les micropolluants organiques pour le milieu aquatique préoccupent grandement les scientifiques ainsi que notre société. En effet, de nombreuses recherches ont mis en évidence les effets toxiques que peuvent avoir ces substances chimiques sur les espèces de nos lacs et rivières, quand elles se retrouvent exposées à des concentrations aiguës ou chroniques. Cependant, la plupart de ces études se sont focalisées sur la toxicité des substances individuelles, c'est à dire considérées séparément. Actuellement, il en est de même dans les procédures de régulation européennes, concernant la partie évaluation du risque pour l'environnement d'une substance. Or, les organismes sont exposés tous les jours à des milliers de substances en mélange, et les effets de ces "cocktails" ne sont pas négligeables. L'évaluation du risque écologique que pose ces mélanges de substances doit donc être abordé par de la manière la plus appropriée et la plus fiable possible. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous nous sommes intéressés aux méthodes actuellement envisagées à être intégrées dans les législations européennes pour l'évaluation du risque des mélanges pour le milieu aquatique. Ces méthodes sont basées sur le modèle d'addition des concentrations, avec l'utilisation des valeurs de concentrations des substances estimées sans effet dans le milieu (PNEC), ou à partir des valeurs des concentrations d'effet (CE50) sur certaines espèces d'un niveau trophique avec la prise en compte de facteurs de sécurité. Nous avons appliqué ces méthodes à deux cas spécifiques, le lac Léman et le Rhône situés en Suisse, et discuté les résultats de ces applications. Ces premières étapes d'évaluation ont montré que le risque des mélanges pour ces cas d'étude atteint rapidement une valeur au dessus d'un seuil critique. Cette valeur atteinte est généralement due à deux ou trois substances principales. Les procédures proposées permettent donc d'identifier les substances les plus problématiques pour lesquelles des mesures de gestion, telles que la réduction de leur entrée dans le milieu aquatique, devraient être envisagées. Cependant, nous avons également constaté que le niveau de risque associé à ces mélanges de substances n'est pas négligeable, même sans tenir compte de ces substances principales. En effet, l'accumulation des substances, même en traces infimes, atteint un seuil critique, ce qui devient plus difficile en terme de gestion du risque. En outre, nous avons souligné un manque de fiabilité dans ces procédures, qui peuvent conduire à des résultats contradictoires en terme de risque. Ceci est lié à l'incompatibilité des facteurs de sécurité utilisés dans les différentes méthodes. Dans la deuxième partie de la thèse, nous avons étudié la fiabilité de méthodes plus avancées dans la prédiction de l'effet des mélanges pour les communautés évoluant dans le système aquatique. Ces méthodes reposent sur le modèle d'addition des concentrations (CA) ou d'addition des réponses (RA) appliqués sur les courbes de distribution de la sensibilité des espèces (SSD) aux substances. En effet, les modèles de mélanges ont été développés et validés pour être appliqués espèce par espèce, et non pas sur plusieurs espèces agrégées simultanément dans les courbes SSD. Nous avons ainsi proposé une procédure plus rigoureuse, pour l'évaluation du risque d'un mélange, qui serait d'appliquer d'abord les modèles CA ou RA à chaque espèce séparément, et, dans une deuxième étape, combiner les résultats afin d'établir une courbe SSD du mélange. Malheureusement, cette méthode n'est pas applicable dans la plupart des cas, car elle nécessite trop de données généralement indisponibles. Par conséquent, nous avons comparé, avec des valeurs générées aléatoirement, le calcul de risque effectué selon cette méthode plus rigoureuse, avec celle effectuée traditionnellement, afin de caractériser la robustesse de cette approche qui consiste à appliquer les modèles de mélange sur les courbes SSD. Nos résultats ont montré que l'utilisation de CA directement sur les SSDs peut conduire à une sous-estimation de la concentration du mélange affectant 5 % ou 50% des espèces, en particulier lorsque les substances présentent un grand écart- type dans leur distribution de la sensibilité des espèces. L'application du modèle RA peut quant à lui conduire à une sur- ou sous-estimations, principalement en fonction de la pente des courbes dose- réponse de chaque espèce composant les SSDs. La sous-estimation avec RA devient potentiellement importante lorsque le rapport entre la EC50 et la EC10 de la courbe dose-réponse des espèces est plus petit que 100. Toutefois, la plupart des substances, selon des cas réels, présentent des données d' écotoxicité qui font que le risque du mélange calculé par la méthode des modèles appliqués directement sur les SSDs reste cohérent et surestimerait plutôt légèrement le risque. Ces résultats valident ainsi l'approche utilisée traditionnellement. Néanmoins, il faut garder à l'esprit cette source d'erreur lorsqu'on procède à une évaluation du risque d'un mélange avec cette méthode traditionnelle, en particulier quand les SSD présentent une distribution des données en dehors des limites déterminées dans cette étude. Enfin, dans la dernière partie de cette thèse, nous avons confronté des prédictions de l'effet de mélange avec des changements biologiques observés dans l'environnement. Dans cette étude, nous avons utilisé des données venant d'un suivi à long terme d'un grand lac européen, le lac Léman, ce qui offrait la possibilité d'évaluer dans quelle mesure la prédiction de la toxicité des mélanges d'herbicide expliquait les changements dans la composition de la communauté phytoplanctonique. Ceci à côté d'autres paramètres classiques de limnologie tels que les nutriments. Pour atteindre cet objectif, nous avons déterminé la toxicité des mélanges sur plusieurs années de 14 herbicides régulièrement détectés dans le lac, en utilisant les modèles CA et RA avec les courbes de distribution de la sensibilité des espèces. Un gradient temporel de toxicité décroissant a pu être constaté de 2004 à 2009. Une analyse de redondance et de redondance partielle, a montré que ce gradient explique une partie significative de la variation de la composition de la communauté phytoplanctonique, même après avoir enlevé l'effet de toutes les autres co-variables. De plus, certaines espèces révélées pour avoir été influencées, positivement ou négativement, par la diminution de la toxicité dans le lac au fil du temps, ont montré des comportements similaires dans des études en mésocosmes. On peut en conclure que la toxicité du mélange herbicide est l'un des paramètres clés pour expliquer les changements de phytoplancton dans le lac Léman. En conclusion, il existe diverses méthodes pour prédire le risque des mélanges de micropolluants sur les espèces aquatiques et celui-ci peut jouer un rôle dans le fonctionnement des écosystèmes. Toutefois, ces modèles ont bien sûr des limites et des hypothèses sous-jacentes qu'il est important de considérer lors de leur application, avant d'utiliser leurs résultats pour la gestion des risques environnementaux. - For several years now, the scientists as well as the society is concerned by the aquatic risk organic micropollutants may pose. Indeed, several researches have shown the toxic effects these substances may induce on organisms living in our lakes or rivers, especially when they are exposed to acute or chronic concentrations. However, most of the studies focused on the toxicity of single compounds, i.e. considered individually. The same also goes in the current European regulations concerning the risk assessment procedures for the environment of these substances. But aquatic organisms are typically exposed every day simultaneously to thousands of organic compounds. The toxic effects resulting of these "cocktails" cannot be neglected. The ecological risk assessment of mixtures of such compounds has therefore to be addressed by scientists in the most reliable and appropriate way. In the first part of this thesis, the procedures currently envisioned for the aquatic mixture risk assessment in European legislations are described. These methodologies are based on the mixture model of concentration addition and the use of the predicted no effect concentrations (PNEC) or effect concentrations (EC50) with assessment factors. These principal approaches were applied to two specific case studies, Lake Geneva and the River Rhône in Switzerland, including a discussion of the outcomes of such applications. These first level assessments showed that the mixture risks for these studied cases exceeded rapidly the critical value. This exceeding is generally due to two or three main substances. The proposed procedures allow therefore the identification of the most problematic substances for which management measures, such as a reduction of the entrance to the aquatic environment, should be envisioned. However, it was also showed that the risk levels associated with mixtures of compounds are not negligible, even without considering these main substances. Indeed, it is the sum of the substances that is problematic, which is more challenging in term of risk management. Moreover, a lack of reliability in the procedures was highlighted, which can lead to contradictory results in terms of risk. This result is linked to the inconsistency in the assessment factors applied in the different methods. In the second part of the thesis, the reliability of the more advanced procedures to predict the mixture effect to communities in the aquatic system were investigated. These established methodologies combine the model of concentration addition (CA) or response addition (RA) with species sensitivity distribution curves (SSD). Indeed, the mixture effect predictions were shown to be consistent only when the mixture models are applied on a single species, and not on several species simultaneously aggregated to SSDs. Hence, A more stringent procedure for mixture risk assessment is proposed, that would be to apply first the CA or RA models to each species separately and, in a second step, to combine the results to build an SSD for a mixture. Unfortunately, this methodology is not applicable in most cases, because it requires large data sets usually not available. Therefore, the differences between the two methodologies were studied with datasets created artificially to characterize the robustness of the traditional approach applying models on species sensitivity distribution. The results showed that the use of CA on SSD directly might lead to underestimations of the mixture concentration affecting 5% or 50% of species, especially when substances present a large standard deviation of the distribution from the sensitivity of the species. The application of RA can lead to over- or underestimates, depending mainly on the slope of the dose-response curves of the individual species. The potential underestimation with RA becomes important when the ratio between the EC50 and the EC10 for the dose-response curve of the species composing the SSD are smaller than 100. However, considering common real cases of ecotoxicity data for substances, the mixture risk calculated by the methodology applying mixture models directly on SSDs remains consistent and would rather slightly overestimate the risk. These results can be used as a theoretical validation of the currently applied methodology. Nevertheless, when assessing the risk of mixtures, one has to keep in mind this source of error with this classical methodology, especially when SSDs present a distribution of the data outside the range determined in this study Finally, in the last part of this thesis, we confronted the mixture effect predictions with biological changes observed in the environment. In this study, long-term monitoring of a European great lake, Lake Geneva, provides the opportunity to assess to what extent the predicted toxicity of herbicide mixtures explains the changes in the composition of the phytoplankton community next to other classical limnology parameters such as nutrients. To reach this goal, the gradient of the mixture toxicity of 14 herbicides regularly detected in the lake was calculated, using concentration addition and response addition models. A decreasing temporal gradient of toxicity was observed from 2004 to 2009. Redundancy analysis and partial redundancy analysis showed that this gradient explains a significant portion of the variation in phytoplankton community composition, even when having removed the effect of all other co-variables. Moreover, some species that were revealed to be influenced positively or negatively, by the decrease of toxicity in the lake over time, showed similar behaviors in mesocosms studies. It could be concluded that the herbicide mixture toxicity is one of the key parameters to explain phytoplankton changes in Lake Geneva. To conclude, different methods exist to predict the risk of mixture in the ecosystems. But their reliability varies depending on the underlying hypotheses. One should therefore carefully consider these hypotheses, as well as the limits of the approaches, before using the results for environmental risk management

Multicenter phase II trial of gefitinib first-line therapy followed by chemotherapy in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC): SAKK protocol 19/03.

BACKGROUND: Gefitinib is active in patients with pretreated non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We evaluated the activity and toxicity of gefitinib first-line treatment in advanced NSCLC followed by chemotherapy at disease progression. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In all, 63 patients with chemotherapy-naive stage IIIB/IV NSCLC received gefitinib 250 mg/day. At disease progression, gefitinib was replaced by cisplatin 80 mg/m(2) on day 1 and gemcitabine 1250 mg/m(2) on days 1, 8 for up to six 3-week cycles. Primary end point was the disease stabilization rate (DSR) after 12 weeks of gefitinib. RESULTS: After 12 weeks of gefitinib, the DSR was 24% and the response rate (RR) was 8%. Median time to progression (TtP) was 2.5 months and median overall survival (OS) 11.5 months. Never smokers (n = 9) had a DSR of 56% and a median OS of 20.2 months; patients with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation (n = 4) had a DSR of 75% and the median OS was not reached after the follow-up of 21.6 months. In all, 41 patients received chemotherapy with an overall RR of 34%, DSR of 71% and median TtP of 6.7 months. CONCLUSIONS: First-line gefitinib monotherapy led to a DSR of 24% at 12 weeks in an unselected patients population. Never smokers and patients with EGFR mutations tend to have a better outcome; hence, further trials in selected patients are warranted.